Spectra FOTL 6/24

[Braswell10]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I haven't talked bad about the product. It looks better than ever, I love Color Blasts and the fact that the cards are only 55pt is excellent. I even said it was a good buy at 800 plus taxes (or at least a decent one).

The only thing I've wondered is how people see this boxes being at 1500+ when (a) outside of the few non-Zion cards I posted, nothing will cover a box price and (b) value is not spread out (although I didn't account for variations which could make a huge difference if they fall 1 per box) and it's very hit dependent

BTW you can also make the case that the people always hyping releases are the ones buying them. I think people just have different opinions on releases, I'm high on Mosaic and I'm in the minority here I think

I completely understand that everyone has their own opinion, nothing wrong with that at all. It just gets old seeing the same people come into a thread based solely on a certain product, and continue to talk about how their opinion is right.

I digress.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by sblez

This product is beyond loaded! Spectra finally came together this year. Its loaded with silvers, golds, nebulas, color blasts, vertical rpas, dual rpas, on card autographs and LOGOMEN! What else can you ask for in a product? The people bashing the product are living in the past when spectra didn't perform that well. Some people just can't change their opinion when Panini dramatically improves a brand.

So the same Spectra as every year? Welcome to Spectra basketball!

The only new thing they have:

-Duals Autos

I guess you can say Color Blast is new, but they’ve ALWAYS had a chase insert.

Spectra isn’t passing the other Chromium products, and dropped behind Mosaic.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

It’s unfortunate. Sometimes it is hard to determine whether you guys are using numbers, or just bringing negativity to threads like these. Seems like the ‘numbers’ guys always tend to go the route of downplaying whatever product people are currently talking about.

Thank goodness we have guys like you on here. God forbid people actually talk about cards and discuss the idea of positive growth.

You can check. I talked up those collegiate products and Select FOTL. Those were both MASSIVELY undervalued. How did we know this? The checklists!

It’s easy to figure out what boxes are “good” and which ones are “bad”.

Spectra isn’t the best and isn’t the worst. It’s the same as it’s always been. It’s not loaded by any means, and I stand by my earlier statement that the better value would have come from a wave base parallel instead of a wave RPA /39. It’s less “loaded” than last year, that’s for sure.

[sblez]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

So the same Spectra as every year? Welcome to Spectra basketball!

The only new thing they have:

-Duals Autos

I guess you can say Color Blast is new, but they’ve ALWAYS had a chase insert.

Spectra isn’t passing the other Chromium products, and dropped behind Mosaic.

When did Spectra have Logomen? And who said it was going to pass Optic, Prizm, Select or Mosaic? A product can still be good even if its not better than those brands.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by sblez

When did Spectra have Logomen? And who said it was going to pass Optic, Prizm, Select or Mosaic? A product can still be good even if its not better than those brands.

17/18, though I guess those were tags in the sense that Noir has had "logomen" before as well.

Nobody said that, but when the stuff isn't passing those products value wise, but boxes cost more than those you listed, it doesn't take a mathematician to figure this out...

[dcarado]

It's definitely got enough pop this year to do well for breakers, but I don't see the secondary market for singles staying high enough to sustain $1k a box for hobby. What I'm most interested to see is if these parallels on the new 55 pt stock will start to close the gap between Spectra and parallels from products like Select/Optic/Mosaic. That Zion marble that's on auction should be interesting to watch. I think it could get in the realm of Select gold ($3-3500).

[Eaglesfan371]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

You can check. I talked up those collegiate products and Select FOTL because I bought several FOTL boxes. Those were both MASSIVELY undervalued. How did we know this? The checklists!

It’s easy to figure out what boxes are “good” and which ones are “bad”.

Spectra isn’t the best and isn’t the worst. It’s the same as it’s always been , at least in my eyes because I missed out on buying. Those color blasts, logoman and dual autos though are quite nice, man wish I had bought in.... It’s not loaded by any means, and I stand by my earlier statement that the better value would have come from a wave base parallel instead of a wave RPA /39. It’s less “loaded” than last year, that’s for sure.

I fixed your statement for you.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan371

I fixed your statement for you.

It's sad that this is the go to for the uneducated on these boards.

Such is life.

Again, it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to figure this stuff up. It's pretty simple math to look at a checklist and know exactly what you're getting out of a box and the expectations of said box. That's all these exercises are. I'm not Braswell with boxes in my eBay store, or Blez who breaks this stuff...

[Orangejello727]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It's sad that this is the go to for the uneducated on these boards.

Such is life.

Again, it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to figure this stuff up. It's pretty simple math to look at a checklist and know exactly what you're getting out of a box and the expectations of said box. That's all these exercises are. I'm not Braswell with boxes in my eBay store, or Blez who breaks this stuff...

I cant believe the amount of suckers out there trying to sell the notation of spending $800 on a box and getting back $50 in cards is a good proposition let alone a fun one. There is nothing fun about it. Who convinced all these guys that losing money is exciting?

I guarantee you with $800 you can buy 10x more value than busting an average box of this stuff.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by dcarado

It's definitely got enough pop this year to do well for breakers, but I don't see the secondary market for singles staying high enough to sustain $1k a box for hobby. What I'm most interested to see is if these parallels on the new 55 pt stock will start to close the gap between Spectra and parallels from products like Select/Optic/Mosaic. That Zion marble that's on auction should be interesting to watch. I think it could get in the realm of Select gold ($3-3500).

To be fair, any 2019-20 product could do well for breakers.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Orangejello727

I cant believe the amount of suckers out there trying to sell the notation of spending $800 on a box and getting back $50 in cards is a good proposition let alone a fun one. There is nothing fun about it. Who convinced all these guys that losing money is exciting?

I guarantee you with $800 you can buy 10x more value than busting an average box of this stuff.

It's their money and they can do with it as they please. More power to them honestly. I hope everybody makes money, because it just means more cash flow back into the hobby.

When you've seen how Spectra sells, and you see cases for $6.5K and realize that you can hit:

-Zion Jersey Auto
-Ja Jersey Auto

And still lose on the case, that's rough. NT is a massive waste at the buy in, but at least you come up if you hit those RPAs.

[Orangejello727]

For the record, im still priced out of the market at $800 for a box of cards.

[Eaglesfan371]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It's sad that this is the go to for the uneducated on these boards.

Such is life.

Again, it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to figure this stuff up. It's pretty simple math to look at a checklist and know exactly what you're getting out of a box and the expectations of said box. That's all these exercises are. I'm not Braswell with boxes in my eBay store, or Blez who breaks this stuff...

Two bachelor's degrees, top 25 school. Keep digging yourself a hole and distancing yourself from everyone though. Your opinion is losing more and more credibility.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

It’s unfortunate. Sometimes it is hard to determine whether you guys are using numbers, or just bringing negativity to threads like these. Seems like the ‘numbers’ guys always tend to go the route of downplaying whatever product people are currently talking about.

Thank goodness we have guys like you on here. God forbid people actually talk about cards and discuss the idea of positive growth.

We don't always spread negativity. I was the FIRST COMMENT on the Spectra thread talking about how I like the product. I was planning on buying FOTL if it hit my price target (OMG NUMBERS), but it sold out well above. I love to rip, but there's only a certain amount of ROI I'm willing to accept with any product. I'll be buying the singles I want and letting the rest take the heavy losses.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...47&postcount=2

Originally Posted by Braswell10

I completely understand that everyone has their own opinion, nothing wrong with that at all. It just gets old seeing the same people come into a thread based solely on a certain product, and continue to talk about how their opinion is right.

I digress.

Recklessly throwing around price targets based on imagination and greed, versus using checklists and comps to model out prices targets are not what I call differences of opinion

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It's sad that this is the go to for the uneducated on these boards.

Such is life.

Again, it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to figure this stuff up. It's pretty simple math to look at a checklist and know exactly what you're getting out of a box and the expectations of said box. That's all these exercises are. I'm not Braswell with boxes in my eBay store, or Blez who breaks this stuff...

It's a fight you can't win when we live in a world where people believe random youtube videos over scientists even when it comes to their own well-being.

[ORLMagicFan]

Fotl:
All on Card. Previous years, nope
Guaranteed rookie patch auto, previous years nope
True logoman potential, previous years nope.
No more junk jersey/patches making up 1/3 of your hits.

Those reasons above, coupled with group breaks who will sell the heck out of this product are why it’s currently a 1200ish box and will prob rise from there.

The cost of the box really doesn’t matter when you are doing PYTs and spreading the cost out the way the breakers do.

If you are opening it for yourself, most of the time it’ll be a bloodbath. Nearly every product ever produced is that way. If you are spending $50 for a random team in a group break, it’s a completely different story.

It’s not that hard to understand

[sblez]

Everyone knows this years wax pricing is over inflated. This year doesn’t make “sense” If you compare it to any other year in our hobby. This is a once in a generation chase. People are not accounting for the value of the “chase” and the fact that market has grown so much making demand insane. Expect this product to disappear making the cost go up even if it’s -EV to rip or your roi decreases lol.

[sblez]

Originally Posted by ORLMagicFan

Fotl:
All on Card. Previous years, nope
Guaranteed rookie patch auto, previous years nope
True logoman potential, previous years nope.
No more junk jersey/patches making up 1/3 of your hits.

Those reasons above, coupled with group breaks who will sell the heck out of this product are why it’s currently a 1200ish box and will prob rise from there.

The cost of the box really doesn’t matter when you are doing PYTs and spreading the cost out the way the breakers do.

If you are opening it for yourself, most of the time it’ll be a bloodbath. Nearly every product ever produced is that way. If you are spending $50 for a random team in a group break, it’s a completely different story.

It’s not that hard to understand

Great post! Wax pricing is now based on what breakers can move it at. Not your expected return on a personal box.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It's sad that this is the go to for the uneducated on these boards.

Such is life.

Again, it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to figure this stuff up. It's pretty simple math to look at a checklist and know exactly what you're getting out of a box and the expectations of said box. That's all these exercises are. I'm not Braswell with boxes in my eBay store, or Blez who breaks this stuff...

Your track record speaks for itself.


Geech doesn't have malice intent....he's actually one of the greatest voices of reason and backs it with current and historical data. Does that mean he's going to be right 100% of the time? Of course not. But overall...he's good money if you take the time to listen and weigh his opinion. And he's certainly not preventing any box hodlers (including mice elf) from taking profits.





Liking the looks of the product thus far. The chance at multiple rpa's seems fun. Looking forward to seeing more box breaks and Ebay singles sales, but it's also not good for my willpower when mine arrive next monday.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by MattMiller

Price predictions?

Someone the other day told me they are only worth $3-5k. So I'm willing to pay $4k off ebay.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

Ja and Zion RPAs were hit in two out of first three boxes opened? Yeah... guess I'm keeping mine sealed / Goga proofed.

Both cards look amazing!

[mc1]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It's sad that this is the go to for the uneducated on these boards.

Such is life.

Again, it doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to figure this stuff up. It's pretty simple math to look at a checklist and know exactly what you're getting out of a box and the expectations of said box. That's all these exercises are. I'm not Braswell with boxes in my eBay store, or Blez who breaks this stuff...

You can pay for school, but you cant buy class!

Next time reply with, “How many boxes do you really have?”.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

If you're genuinely interested in what the value of this stuff is and whether you should break or not, listen to Geech or myself or yiguiri... basically anyone who actually cares about numbers n' stuff.

If you just want to feel good about yourself and imagine how much money you've made, listen to the pumpers.

Noir /49 RPAs go for $3k
Impeccable /75 RPAs go for $2k
Spectra /39 are ugly IMO, ruby wave / purple wave Prizms and Tmall sales tend to agree with me. Everyone is going to have their own valuation but just wanted to put that out there (again)

How do you guys not understand that this year Spectra is not like every other year for Spectra? Just like Mosaic was a dog for years and now it's red hot. This year is the best Spectra has ever looked. Bigger patch window, vertical rpa, huge bonus in /39 or /3 rpa, color blast, logomen, double the amount of cards per box, Zion. I just wish I would have bought way way more.

[Orangejello727]

It only makes sense to for group breakers to become ebay consigners now. I see so many people hitting in breaks and posting the card up on ebay minutes after its been hit and a pic has been taking on the breakers table. I think 70% of people who break heavily are having their cards shipped straight to a consignment to be sold instantly.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

It’s unfortunate. Sometimes it is hard to determine whether you guys are using numbers, or just bringing negativity to threads like these. Seems like the ‘numbers’ guys always tend to go the route of downplaying whatever product people are currently talking about.

Thank goodness we have guys like you on here. God forbid people actually talk about cards and discuss the idea of positive growth.

When you got guys telling you a/39 rpa or /3 with a 42 rookie checklist is worth less to box prices than a base card /9 with 175 guys and mostly vets I don't know what to tell you. 99% of buyers want the rpa exclusive.

[cboog3105]

so uh what should i list my Ingram /25 Pink RPA for