Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[123precision]

Went to a 160 table local show yesterday. Overall prices were lower than expected. Talked to some dealers. Most said Friday was steady traffic and Saturday was lighter than expected. One dealer noted no one was waiting in line when they opened the doors Saturday morning. Dealers started packing up 3-4 hours early on Saturday. You could see frustration in a lot of faces. Lots of kids and teens trying to unload slabs. I noticed one dealer making deals/trades with kids and was laughing and making the most of it....that's what we need more of.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[JohnnyAppleseed]

Originally Posted by solt0131

All low end stuff is flying. My 50 cent boxes are gone, $1 cards wiped out and cards in the $5-$20 range are moving very well. Showcase stuff I’ve sold at 80% to 85%.

Was at the philly show. For me the mentality was the stuff that was plucked out to put on display is priced appropriately (or higher) but the stuff in the bargain bins hasn't been sorted through and you can find some, well, bargains.
Found an early 00s Ripken Jr jersey card that was actually a patch card back when that kind of insertion mistake was more common.
Found another #d RC (hockey though) that sells for triple what it was priced at.
Picked up a couple of other nice PC pieces at right around fair price. Did buy a couple showcase pieces too since I didn't find nearly as much as I was hoping for.
Saw quite a bit of wax just sitting there not garnering a sale, though there were a few boxes that were priced very nicely and got moved.
People are definitely more discerning.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Never been but I can see the future…

TONS of people walking around. Lots of people trying to sell or trade to dealers. Mostly junk coming out of the Apache cases. Lots of cards being moved in the $10-$100 range. Most dealers just showcasing super high end.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How’s the Philly show going?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[auctionjmm]

More people need to adapt the Burbank Model. 40 million cards and about 39,999,000 of them are under $5. Recession proof and appeals to the silent majority of collectors who don't participate in forums like this or social media. It's no coincidence that the value box guys have been slaying it even during "tough" times. Let the high end dealers trade among each other but you'll never go wrong selling $1 cards to people who only buy $1 cards. Those buyers would survive WW3.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by jkampis

Probably less than 1/50th given the hassle of list/pack/ship $2 cards. I wouldn’t have the patience for that kind of small ball.

Same, thats what COMC is for

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

More people need to adapt the Burbank Model. 40 million cards and about 39,999,000 of them are under $5. Recession proof and appeals to the silent majority of collectors who don't participate in forums like this or social media. It's no coincidence that the value box guys have been slaying it even during "tough" times. Let the high end dealers trade among each other but you'll never go wrong selling $1 cards to people who only buy $1 cards. Those buyers would survive WW3.

Selling a bunch of $1 cards doesnt get you IG likes or on the cover of PWCC magazine. That was the goal of the majority of the crowd that hopped in after 2019.

[k13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

More people need to adapt the Burbank Model. 40 million cards and about 39,999,000 of them are under $5. Recession proof and appeals to the silent majority of collectors who don't participate in forums like this or social media. It's no coincidence that the value box guys have been slaying it even during "tough" times. Let the high end dealers trade among each other but you'll never go wrong selling $1 cards to people who only buy $1 cards. Those buyers would survive WW3.

People don't want $1 cards like they used to.
Hard to sell $10 cards for $1.

You can't even get $5 for a Mike Trout Topps Chrome refractor.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

More people need to adapt the Burbank Model. 40 million cards and about 39,999,000 of them are under $5. Recession proof and appeals to the silent majority of collectors who don't participate in forums like this or social media. It's no coincidence that the value box guys have been slaying it even during "tough" times. Let the high end dealers trade among each other but you'll never go wrong selling $1 cards to people who only buy $1 cards. Those buyers would survive WW3.

i agree, but no stock photos please

[kevbojones]

Been having so much fun in the hobby recently. Picking up clean raw semi stars and high numbers from the 60s and early 70s. Grabbed a 2nd year Bradshaw and Jim Plunkett RC at auction last night for pretty cheap as well

Generally staying away from slabs right now (there are just oo many), but will buy privately off platform if a cash deal can be made

[KhalDrogo]

Selling dollar bin cards takes time and effort. The juice is not worth the squeeze for most people. For all the crap I collected when I was still ripping wax, I just let it marinate in a box. Comb through it every once in awhile to see if there’s anything actually worth the effort to sell. Works out well for me.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Selling dollar bin cards takes time and effort. The juice is not worth the squeeze for most people. For all the crap I collected when I was still ripping wax, I just let it marinate in a box. Comb through it every once in awhile to see if there’s anything actually worth the effort to sell. Works out well for me.

Not to mention storage. I am sure there are many collectors like me who are looking to shrink their cardboard "footprint". Only so much space/mess you have in a spare bedroom.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Not to mention storage. I am sure there are many collectors like me who are looking to shrink their cardboard "footprint". Only so much space/mess you have in a spare bedroom.

It’s a problem. I had to buy five more graded card boxes last week. The focus of my PC is pretty narrow, but it all piles up quickly!

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by k13

People don't want $1 cards like they used to.
Hard to sell $10 cards for $1.

You can't even get $5 for a Mike Trout Topps Chrome refractor.

I don't agree at all with this. For the first time ever this year I showed up to the National without a single card over $20. I had a 7 foot space I rent annually from my friend and walked away with $5315 and a lot of decent buys under $20 which I flipped throughout August. I've been setting up at shows since 2011 and have had many shows where the value boxes were ignored. It's been the exact opposite in recent years. The ROI on showcases just isn't there for me. I did put out a showcase I borrowed for the weekend at NSCC but only because I was running low on inventory and even then it was mostly cards under $20. I emptied it 3 times on Saturday. Maybe it's a regional thing but I've been very happy with the results. It's also less stressful not having money tied up into high end. An injury or suspension isn't going to rock my world like it would some. I've been quite content.

[hermanotarjeta]

The way a healthy hobby should be - good show turn out, large volumes of less than $20 singles sales, and dropping high-end (over $10,000 card) singles prices and plummeting wax prices.

[ThoseBackPages]

shows are the best place to buy both high and low end cards

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

shows are the best place to buy both high and low end cards

What about mid end?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

What about mid end?

A healthy market needs mid-end to soften up as well.

Mid-end being in the $21-$9999 range.

Plentiful shows available where collectors can put dealers up against one another to sell their singles to customers for cheaper than the next guy - a buyer's market.

That will be a sign that we are back to having fun!

Newbie collectors have never seen this. Wouldn't it be wonderful if dirtbag dealers are begging you to get their card off their hands?

[Dalston]

I went to a Bay Area show in Hayward yesterday. Guessing there were about 100 sellers there (advertised as 250 tables, but many with multiples. Reasonable, but not huge crowd. First show I've been able to make post-COVID but from the reports I've heard it sounds like it was slower than other recent Bay Area shows in terms of foot traffic.

Also felt slow in terms of sales from what I saw - and a number of dealers were complaining that they weren't moving much. To be fair, some people were set up with limited, super-modern inventory priced at points unlikely to sell.

Some observations:
- Probably only 30% of dealers had all their inventory priced out. Made it easier for me to focus. If it's unpriced and I don't see something I really want at a quick glance, I'm moving on to the next table...
- Predictably, there was ludicrous about of recent (especially 2020 onwards) stuff, although also more vintage than I generally see at Bay Area shows (perhaps unsurprisingly given market trends). At a cursory glance, there seemed to be few bargains in the vintage with people having updated pricing but vintage isn't really my thing other than to look at and admire so that may be wrong.
- Striking how many of the bargain boxes (defined as anything up to $5/card) were 90%+ 2018ish onwards, with quite a few that were 95%+ 2020 onwards. This modern stuff ranged from wildly overpriced to priced-to-move (the latter to the extent I surprised myself by buying some 2020-22 low-end rookies). Guessing quite a few first-time sellers got an education on how saturated the market really is.
- Topps Chrome 2022 was readily available from 3 vendors at $350 Jumbo/$180 Hobby. One vendor was selling opened base and lower end rookies at 20 for $1. I invested a whopping 50 cents total to buy 6 Reids Detmer and Kyle Muller rookies on spec plus Ohtani, Acuna, Bichette, and Matt Chapman for my son.
- Really limited baseball from 1970-2017, which is a shame because that is where I love to dumpster dive for value. But I did find one seller with great quarter boxes and some good deals on other low-mid range cards. First thing that caught my eye was a section of 2005 Topps Chrome and was pleased to find base Yadier, Mauer rookie cup (*2) and Greinke, which is about $30 of cards for a dollar. 2 minutes later, I ran into a Freddie Freeman flagship rookie and offered the seller the chance to pull it out of the quarter bin. He thanked me and told me it was mine for a quarter. Ended up spending a couple of hours going through literally all his baseball at every price point and was able to get a good haul of stuff to flip to COMC and about 15 things I wanted.

Apparently the Serramonte show is starting up again in January and there is going to be a SF show in February.

[Blazed]

Can someone explain why everyone thinks they have a $500 - $1000 card? Can they not see the comps where it consistently sells for $100 - $150? Their card their price, but it seems like every card now is a $1000.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Can someone explain why everyone thinks they have a $500 - $1000 card? Can they not see the comps where it consistently sells for $100 - $150? Their card their price, but it seems like every card now is a $1000.

If you give someone 75% off a $1000 card, the buyer feels like they got a good deal, even if it's only worth $100-$150.

Either that, or investor bois hate losing money.

[mwash1983]

Went to the Albany show today and the foot traffic was subpar compared to the rest of the shows, if you hung out until almost show close dealers were practically giving away things for free. I saw a lot of long faces and some astonished faces when I showed them a card that was 30 or more 1.5 years ago was now worth 5-10. Again people were giving things away for almost free, picked up a Vlad jr heritage bgs 9.5 for 10, Logan ohoppe elite auto for 3, a Randy moss/Larry Fitzgerald bowman chrome rc lot for 10, and got an Andres Gimenez tier one bronze auto for a dollar.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mwash1983

Went to the Albany show today and the foot traffic was subpar compared to the rest of the shows, if you hung out until almost show close dealers were practically giving away things for free. I saw a lot of long faces and some astonished faces when I showed them a card that was 30 or more 1.5 years ago was now worth 5-10. Again people were giving things away for almost free, picked up a Vlad jr heritage bgs 9.5 for 10, Logan ohoppe elite auto for 3, a Randy moss/Larry Fitzgerald bowman chrome rc lot for 10, and got an Andres Gimenez tier one bronze auto for a dollar.

That's a great sign.

Other buyers should hold out for deals like this, they will become more common as dealers continue to get squeezed by inflation.

Many will be forced to sell at bargain prices soon.

[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

A healthy market needs mid-end to soften up as well.

Mid-end being in the $21-$9999 range.

Plentiful shows available where collectors can put dealers up against one another to sell their singles to customers for cheaper than the next guy - a buyer's market.

That will be a sign that we are back to having fun!

Newbie collectors have never seen this. Wouldn't it be wonderful if dirtbag dealers are begging you to get their card off their hands?

Happened today with me in Albany, one guy was giving away football to me as he was a basketball guy, I guess the Covid drop has destroyed his collection. Guy sounded pretty depressed.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Dalston

I went to a Bay Area show in Hayward yesterday. Guessing there were about 100 sellers there (advertised as 250 tables, but many with multiples. Reasonable, but not huge crowd. First show I've been able to make post-COVID but from the reports I've heard it sounds like it was slower than other recent Bay Area shows in terms of foot traffic.

Also felt slow in terms of sales from what I saw - and a number of dealers were complaining that they weren't moving much. To be fair, some people were set up with limited, super-modern inventory priced at points unlikely to sell.

Some observations:
- Probably only 30% of dealers had all their inventory priced out. Made it easier for me to focus. If it's unpriced and I don't see something I really want at a quick glance, I'm moving on to the next table...
- Predictably, there was ludicrous about of recent (especially 2020 onwards) stuff, although also more vintage than I generally see at Bay Area shows (perhaps unsurprisingly given market trends). At a cursory glance, there seemed to be few bargains in the vintage with people having updated pricing but vintage isn't really my thing other than to look at and admire so that may be wrong.
- Striking how many of the bargain boxes (defined as anything up to $5/card) were 90%+ 2018ish onwards, with quite a few that were 95%+ 2020 onwards. This modern stuff ranged from wildly overpriced to priced-to-move (the latter to the extent I surprised myself by buying some 2020-22 low-end rookies). Guessing quite a few first-time sellers got an education on how saturated the market really is.
- Topps Chrome 2022 was readily available from 3 vendors at $350 Jumbo/$180 Hobby. One vendor was selling opened base and lower end rookies at 20 for $1. I invested a whopping 50 cents total to buy 6 Reids Detmer and Kyle Muller rookies on spec plus Ohtani, Acuna, Bichette, and Matt Chapman for my son.
- Really limited baseball from 1970-2017, which is a shame because that is where I love to dumpster dive for value. But I did find one seller with great quarter boxes and some good deals on other low-mid range cards. First thing that caught my eye was a section of 2005 Topps Chrome and was pleased to find base Yadier, Mauer rookie cup (*2) and Greinke, which is about $30 of cards for a dollar. 2 minutes later, I ran into a Freddie Freeman flagship rookie and offered the seller the chance to pull it out of the quarter bin. He thanked me and told me it was mine for a quarter. Ended up spending a couple of hours going through literally all his baseball at every price point and was able to get a good haul of stuff to flip to COMC and about 15 things I wanted.

Apparently the Serramonte show is starting up again in January and there is going to be a SF show in February.

What was the dealers stance on the cheap 2022 topps chrome? For $180 a box are you forgoing the silver pack when they come in?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

That's a great sign.

Other buyers should hold out for deals like this, they will become more common as dealers continue to get squeezed by inflation.

Many will be forced to sell at bargain prices soon.

I think they aren’t there on the more modern stuff, the old stuff they are getting there. I’m getting a rep at the upstate shows now, dealers were saying I was tough lol.