The Official Stock Market Thread

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Why would you not want to capture increased premium on a name that you want to own anyways?

Selling puts when vol is high on high quality names is a great strategy if you don't want to just buy the shares outright. Either you get a small premium or you get assigned something you want to own. Win/Win

An amateur calling others amateurs is right on brand

Most people in this thread from what I've seen, and have talked to in DM's dabble and play with a small amount of shares and small accounts. Selling puts isn't for them

Setting them up for unlimited losses isn't the best advice

You sell puts at the bottom or as close to it as you can (near major ma's), not in the middle of a correction

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

What the Trump administration has made clear is that the priority is driving down interest rates, for two reasons. One, your average American needs lower rates to survive thanks to how expensive literally everything has become. Mortgage rates at 7% and used car rates at 10% are not sustainable for your average American. Two, we need to be rolling our debt over at 2%, not 4.5%. We have $8-10T due in 2025. That’s $100B+ in savings.Federal spending is 25% of US GDP. Induce a federal spending cut recession, force the Fed to cut rates, and benefit average Americans.

Personally, I’ll take a 30% decline in the markets if it means mortgage rates fall to around 4%. I want a new home, but not badly enough to cost me thousands of dollars every month thanks to these rates.

He gets it

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If you can't handle a 10% pullback, the market isn't for you

Can’t take a loss bro.

It’s always fascinating to see these kinds of reactions. Seems like a lot of projection. I can’t tolerate a 30% decline in price, so I’m sure you can’t either and I’m going to make fun of you for it. If the core business is strong and you believe in it, these are fantastic opportunities which should be cheered, not booed.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Most people in this thread from what I've seen, and have talked to in DM's dabble and play with a small amount of shares and small accounts. Selling puts isn't for them

Setting them up for unlimited losses isn't the best advice

You sell puts at the bottom or as close to it as you can (near major ma's), not in the middle of a correction

Ok but that's a totally different discussion.

Saying it's setting up someone for "unlimited losses" is just completely false. It's literally no different than simply buying shares. Yea, the company can go to $0 and you lose all your money (extremely unlikely, but theoretically possible). If you sell a put and the company goes to 0 you lost all your money except the premium you got so it's better than just buying the commons.

Nobody suggested selling naked puts.

You didn't read what I wrote anyways. I suggested an alternative to buying shares for someone with extra cash sitting in their account.

To the bolded point, you're again making assumptions without even clarifying. I also never said sell ATM puts right this second. You sell puts at a level you want to own the stock at.

It's simple, if you don't want to own the stock and are afraid of being assigned, don't sell the put.

[jdandns]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

What the Trump administration has made clear is that the priority is driving down interest rates, for two reasons. One, your average American needs lower rates to survive thanks to how expensive literally everything has become. Mortgage rates at 7% and used car rates at 10% are not sustainable for your average American. Two, we need to be rolling our debt over at 2%, not 4.5%. We have $8-10T due in 2025. That’s $100B+ in savings.Federal spending is 25% of US GDP. Induce a federal spending cut recession, force the Fed to cut rates, and benefit average Americans.

Personally, I’ll take a 30% decline in the markets if it means mortgage rates fall to around 4%. I want a new home, but not badly enough to cost me thousands of dollars every month thanks to these rates.

Would a 60% decline get mortgage rates down to 2%?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jdandns

Would a 60% decline get mortgage rates down to 2%?

On an individual basis you might find a 2% rate. But the lowest rate of the last 25 years was 2.65% in January 2021. So unlikely that even a doomsday 60% decline would bring down average 30 year mortgage rates that low.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

On an individual basis you might find a 2% rate. But the lowest rate of the last 25 years was 2.65% in January 2021. So unlikely that even a doomsday 60% decline would bring down average 30 year mortgage rates that low.

and that was with 0 FFR.

Without a huge down payment and 0% rates you're not getting a 2% 30 year.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Ok but that's a totally different discussion.

Saying it's setting up someone for "unlimited losses" is just completely false. It's literally no different than simply buying shares. Yea, the company can go to $0 and you lose all your money (extremely unlikely, but theoretically possible). If you sell a put and the company goes to 0 you lost all your money except the premium you got so it's better than just buying the commons.

Nobody suggested selling naked puts.

You didn't read what I wrote anyways. I suggested an alternative to buying shares for someone with extra cash sitting in their account.

To the bolded point, you're again making assumptions without even clarifying. I also never said sell ATM puts right this second. You sell puts at a level you want to own the stock at.

It's simple, if you don't want to own the stock and are afraid of being assigned, don't sell the put.

I think Blaze realized he was wrong halfway through what he typed so he made some big assumptions to still sound right.

[jdandns]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

On an individual basis you might find a 2% rate. But the lowest rate of the last 25 years was 2.65% in January 2021. So unlikely that even a doomsday 60% decline would bring down average 30 year mortgage rates that low.

I was just curious. I locked into my mortgage rate in 2019, so I got whatever it was then, I think around 4.5%.

[budd2222]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

And in 1983 the median US home price to median family income ratio was 2.86. That ratio today is 5.2.

It was not as simple as that. Inflation was about 3.6% and going up loans were unaffordable. In the area we lived water was king. Farmers and ranchers to keep from losing everything would sell off their water rights, pay of their depts move on and let the local or state government fight over who had to take the worthless land. Your income ratio to home price is just a small part of the era.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by budd2222

It was not as simple as that. Inflation was about 3.6% and going up loans were unaffordable. In the area we lived water was king. Farmers and ranchers to keep from losing everything would sell off their water rights, pay of their depts move on and let the local or state government fight over who had to take the worthless land. Your income ratio to home price is just a small part of the era.

My point from my original post was that when the cost of the typical home is exponentially more than the typical household income, the household’s ability to tolerate higher interest rates is non-existent.

CPI comes in light. Big gap up this morning.

[eastbayak]

How soon until we see a sub-40k Dow?

[NYBBFAN]

Good day to add AAPL, CMG and WMT.

[patchgenie]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

How soon until we see a sub-40k Dow?

can't lose if you buy the DIP!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

How soon until we see a sub-40k Dow?

The better question is when will the worthless Dow be eliminated?

[imbluestreak23]

Of course market moves up the day my bonus hits my bank account. Rigged game

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Of course market moves up the day my bonus hits my bank account. Rigged game

Why would hitting your bank account matter?

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Why would hitting your bank account matter?

Because yesterday I didn't have access to funds.

Today I do, that matters quite significantly when trying to buy stuff

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Because yesterday I didn't have access to funds.

Today I do, that matters quite significantly when trying to buy stuff

Margin? Lol

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Margin? Lol

Jesus Christ

It's called Friday = payday

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Margin? Lol

Jesus Christ

It's called Friday = payday

Bonus

Bonuses paid by employers

Do these words/phrases resonate with you humans

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Jesus Christ

It's called Friday = payday

Bonus

Bonuses paid by employers

Do these words/phrases resonate with you humans

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Poor bluey no matter what thread he’s in he takes a lot of #@#@#@#@.

[imbluestreak23]

It really is horrible living among such peasantry.

Alas, I someone decide it's worth putting up with you miserable devils

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

You re-entered the market way too early.

Although there’ll be daily fluctuations, there’s still a lot of “pain” left.

Just wait until unemployment rates rise and small businesses close down. Inflation is still high, consumer and producer indices continue to increase, housing market is still crap (are people even buying anymore?), etc.

We’re not even talking about all the federal-related budget cuts and the direct/indirect effects of them too.

You may have called the bottom in TSLA here. Since this post, the stock has spent less than 10 minutes below the price at that time.

Looking like we challenge the 20 day today. Can start to get an idea if this is the C wave of a corrective wave up, or the third wave of a fresh bull run.