American League MVP - Page 23

seanrs1 · 09-06-2022, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Judge averaging that many HR's per year is going to be tough.

With Ohtani, I'm more worried will he actually get to 10 years service time to qualify. Let alone the fact that he'll need to continue high performance that entire time.

Both players are on the HOF track per WAR for their age.

JRX · 09-06-2022, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Judge averaging that many HR's per year is going to be tough.

With Ohtani, I'm more worried will he actually get to 10 years service time to qualify. Let alone the fact that he'll need to continue high performance that entire time.

Again, I think they'll waive whatever requirements they need to for Ohtani. If he plays another few years at this level, he will get into the hof one way or another.

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Both players are on the HOF track per WAR for their age.

Source?

BBRef has these names as Judge's best comparisons through Age 29:
1. Brian Giles
2. Khris Davis
3. Kevin Mitchell

Again, unless he finds the fountain of youth in his 30's, his WAR pace will absolutely slow down from the current rate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Again, I think they'll waive whatever requirements they need to for Ohtani. If he plays another few years at this level, he will get into the hof one way or another.

That absolutely will not happen.

clocsta2323 · 09-06-2022, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

I think guys that could end up right on the edge like deGrom and Judge deserve the benefit on the doubt. It's not their fault the 2020 games were taken away in their prime.

DeGrom lost the Cy in 2020 and it wasn't even close.

Forgetting 2020 works in Judge's favor. He was terrible. David Fletcher stole his non-existent MVP votes.

And he also sucked in 2019. The Jorges got more votes... Jorge Polanco and Jorge Soler

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

Forgetting 2020 works in Judge's favor. He was terrible.

That's true. He was basically having a Juan Soto 2022, but had the benefit of a short season.

rman112 · 09-06-2022, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

DeGrom lost the Cy in 2020 and it wasn't even close.

Forgetting 2020 works in Judge's favor. He was terrible. David Fletcher stole his non-existent MVP votes.

And he also sucked in 2019. The Jorges got more votes... Jorge Polanco and Jorge Soler

Both guys were in their prime. You're saying that 2020 was a great example of small sample sizes.

Judge's OPS in 2019 was over .900, and his WAR was 4.5...

Bcr · 09-06-2022, 04:46 PM

Ohtani doesn't need the HOF for anything. His greatness will be his star power and all the insane records he sets along the way.

BigSlim16 · 09-06-2022, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

DeGrom lost the Cy in 2020 and it wasn't even close.

Forgetting 2020 works in Judge's favor. He was terrible. David Fletcher stole his non-existent MVP votes.

And he also sucked in 2019. The Jorges got more votes... Jorge Polanco and Jorge Soler

Forgetting 2020 works in Shohei's favor as well

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Both guys were in their prime. You're saying that 2020 was a great example of small sample sizes.

Judge's OPS in 2019 was over .900, and his WAR was 4.5...

Yeah, but to only play 102 games in a "prime" year is going to hurt HOF potential. That's one of the years that he needed to perform like 2022.

OPS is also like the only stat that was halfway decent that year.

Another thing that I think our dusty HOF voters would consider is that he has CONSIDERABLY more strikeouts than hits. How many HOF'ers are even close to that? We're basically talking about a guy that (over the course of his career, not just this year, so bear with me) just mashes dingers and that's it. He's basically Mark McGwire who won't hit near as many homeruns or have near the counting stats.

rman112 · 09-06-2022, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Yeah, but to only play 102 games in a "prime" year is going to hurt HOF potential. That's one of the years that he needed to perform like 2022.

OPS is also like the only stat that was halfway decent that year.

Another thing that I think our dusty HOF voters would consider is that he has CONSIDERABLY more strikeouts than hits. How many HOF'ers are even close to that? We're basically talking about a guy that (over the course of his career, not just this year, so bear with me) just mashes dingers and that's it. He's basically Mark McGwire who won't hit near as many homeruns or have near the counting stats.

I was responding to the idea that he "sucked" in 2019. And considering the "all encompassing" stat had him at 4.5, well...

rman112 · 09-06-2022, 04:54 PM

And to put that into perspective, Fangraphs has Devers, Trout, McNeil, and Bregman at a 4.6 so far this season.

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

I was responding to the idea that he "sucked" in 2019. And considering the "all encompassing" stat had him at 4.5, well...

BBRef had him at 5.6 in 2019, but had a dWAR of 1.8 (his highest yearly total).

clocsta2323 · 09-06-2022, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

I was responding to the idea that he "sucked" in 2019. And considering the "all encompassing" stat had him at 4.5, well...

He didn't get a single vote for MVP. Jorge Soler did.... and Max Kepler... and Austin Meadows.

And Eddie Rosario

rman112 · 09-06-2022, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

He didn't get a single vote for MVP. Jorge Soler did.... and Max Kepler

No MVP votes = sucks

Sounds legit.

clocsta2323 · 09-06-2022, 04:59 PM

And Carlos Santana

clocsta2323 · 09-06-2022, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

No MVP votes = sucks

Sounds legit.

Never said that.. just 2019 and 2020 is a lazy as #@#@#@#@ argument about missed prime.

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

No MVP votes = sucks

Sounds legit.

I wouldn't say "sucks", but it sure doesn't scream "amazing".

It's definitely not a "great" season when a top-tier player gets less MVP votes than Yoan Moncada. Yes, he got one vote.

imbluestreak23 · 09-06-2022, 05:03 PM

Are people really concerned about Ohtani and the 10 year requirement for eligibility?

Dudes half way there.

He's averaging for his career a WAR/162 game average of (4.1 hitting + 5.7 pitching) = 9.8. That's the highest of any active player for their career including a guy named after a Fish

Pshh, started late...

Zedlaw · 09-06-2022, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

Being more risky doesn't detract from his value when healthy. It just causes the team to be more brittle when he isn't.

As a manager it would certainly need to be a team design consideration. It would be interesting to understand if GMs see it as a net benefit, or net negative to have to deal with.

When the risk mitigation is the same outcome as the risk consequence, do you really have increased risk

rman112 · 09-06-2022, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

Never said that.. just 2019 and 2020 is a lazy as #@#@#@#@ argument about missed prime.

You using 2020 is just making my point. It's a crap shoot of an extremely small sample size. And even smaller, considering he only played 28 games.

And putting up a good season even while only playing 102 games .. at age 27 .. yeah, that's prime.

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Are people really concerned about Ohtani and the 10 year requirement for eligibility?

Dudes half way there.

He's averaging for his career a WAR/162 game average of (4.1 hitting + 5.7 pitching) = 9.8. That's the highest of any active player for their career including a guy named after a Fish

Pshh, started late...

Gotta make those next 5 years. Who is to say he doesn't pack it up and go back to Japan (like Tanaka)?

rman112 · 09-06-2022, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I wouldn't say "sucks", but it sure doesn't scream "amazing".

It's definitely not a "great" season when a top-tier player gets less MVP votes than Yoan Moncada. Yes, he got one vote.

Who is saying that? He got hurt...

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

You using 2020 is just making my point. It's a crap shoot of an extremely small sample size. And even smaller, considering he only played 28 games.

And putting up a good season even while only playing 102 games .. at age 27 .. yeah, that's prime.

... but it hurts his HOF chances is the point we've been discussing. He lost significant time (over a full season) from 2019-2020 where he should have been racking up counting stats and WAR.

JRX · 09-06-2022, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Gotta make those next 5 years. Who is to say he doesn't pack it up and go back to Japan (like Tanaka)?

Then they'll change the rule to be 10 years for a 1-way player or 5 years as a 2-way player with some min pa/ab. If he does another 3 years at this level and then goes to Japan, he's still getting in the hof. Its a museum that makes up its own rules and changes them whenever they want.

rngrdanny22 · 09-06-2022, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Who is saying that? He got hurt...

I get that, but that's part of the game. He has to stay on the field to rack up a HOF case.

It definitely was not an "amazing" season. It was mediocre at best.

You sure seem to get worked up when we start bagging on Judge...

09-06-2022, 05:03 PM	#568
imbluestreak23 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out Posts: 17,684 shortslabs	Are people really concerned about Ohtani and the 10 year requirement for eligibility? Dudes half way there. He's averaging for his career a WAR/162 game average of (4.1 hitting + 5.7 pitching) = 9.8. That's the highest of any active player for their career including a guy named after a Fish Pshh, started late... __________________ @shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort

09-06-2022, 04:46 PM	#557
Bcr Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 2,739	Ohtani doesn't need the HOF for anything. His greatness will be his star power and all the insane records he sets along the way.

09-06-2022, 04:54 PM	#561
rman112 Banned Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Freedom is Free Again Posts: 40,946	And to put that into perspective, Fangraphs has Devers, Trout, McNeil, and Bregman at a 4.6 so far this season.

09-06-2022, 04:59 PM	#565
clocsta2323 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: D.C. Posts: 6,842	And Carlos Santana