2022 Topps Chrome Sapphire Baseball

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

If you're ripping Sapphire...you are going to lose.

If you are ripping any box for sale on blowout, you are going to lose. At least you get some pretty looking cards out of it!

[rippev]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Even this year's megamix has a better return.

I wouldn’t go that far!

[theshowandme]

People actually bought this product?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

People actually bought this product?

Sold out - BO and other major retailers don't even have it in stock.

[LVDan]

By next week the huge wave of singles will hit eBay once all orders have been received.
I mean it sold out so a giant deluge is coming.
Right?


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by LVDan

By next week the huge wave of singles will hit eBay once all orders have been received.
I mean it sold out so a giant deluge is coming.
Right?


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Big box retailers are offering to buy sealed boxes for $200.

This product is not going to crash in price like many are hoping.

I think most people who bought boxes are keeping them sealed for the long term.

You will never see a flood of singles for this product.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

People actually bought this product?

And apparently trying to sell it on eBay for break even… wonder when / if they start taking a loss???


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by LVDan

By next week the huge wave of singles will hit eBay once all orders have been received.
I mean it sold out so a giant deluge is coming.
Right?


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I keep waiting… I’ve been seeing maybe ~20 listed for players I follow


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[LVDan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Big box retailers are offering to buy sealed boxes for $200.

This product is not going to crash in price like many are hoping.

I think most people who bought boxes are keeping them sealed for the long term.

You will never see a flood of singles for this product.

It only takes the 2 companies to prop up prices and set the floor.
I’m not arguing it will crash.
It has very little to do with demand.


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pewe

And apparently trying to sell it on eBay for break even… wonder when / if they start taking a loss???


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Haha, the only dudes who are taking a loss are flippers who overspent and realized they have holiday season bills to pay, and are forced to sell.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Big box retailers are offering to buy sealed boxes for $200.

This product is not going to crash in price like many are hoping.

I think most people who bought boxes are keeping them sealed for the long term.

You will never see a flood of singles for this product.

Isn’t an immediate ~30% loss kind of a bad result for those who bought day 1???


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by LVDan

It only takes the 2 companies to prop up prices and set the floor.
I’m not arguing it will crash.
It has very little to do with demand.


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It shows you how easy it is to manipulate prices in this market, doesn't it?

It doesn't matter if the demand is coming for 2 parties or 10,000 parties, demand is demand.

If the supply cannot saturate the demand of even just 2 parties, then is there really little demand? If those two companies need 1000 boxes each and they don't have it, they need to go into the market to get it - it's still demand.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It shows you how easy it is to manipulate prices in this market, doesn't it?

It doesn't matter if the demand is coming for 2 parties or 10,000 parties, demand is demand.

If the supply cannot saturate the demand of even just 2 parties, then is there really little demand? If those two companies need 1000 boxes each and they don't have it, they need to go into the market to get it - it's still demand.

Your first sentence is accurate.


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Your first sentence is accurate.


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And the collectors who are entitled to the product at lower prices still don't have it - see how it works?

Blame our degenerate gambling, flipping and pumping colleagues - they are the ones who will crack first and buy at their ransom prices.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It shows you how easy it is to manipulate prices in this market, doesn't it?

It doesn't matter if the demand is coming for 2 parties or 10,000 parties, demand is demand.

If the supply cannot saturate the demand of even just 2 parties, then is there really little demand? If those two companies need 1000 boxes each and they don't have it, they need to go into the market to get it - it's still demand.

Well… it sounded like you said demand is coming from middle men… I don’t think sustainable demand is driven by supply chain. They need to have some liquidity plan?

Now they could assume in 10 years the content in the product will be worth enough more to make it worth holding.

Or maybe they have demand from breakers who couldn’t get volume on day one? Has anyone checked to see what revenue breakers seem to be able to get on a per box basis? If they are getting $300, maybe they’d be willing to pay $250, and the middle men would be willing to buy at $200 to get to the breakers?


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[LVDan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

And the collectors who are entitled to the product at lower prices still don't have it - see how it works?

Blame our degenerate gambling, flipping and pumping colleagues - they are the ones who will crack first and buy at their ransom prices.

See how what works?
No one is entitled to anything.
No one to blame for anything.

I’m struggling to see what point you’re attempting to make.


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pewe

Well… it sounded like you said demand is coming from middle men… I don’t think sustainable demand is driven by supply chain. They need to have some liquidity plan?

Now they could assume in 10 years the content in the product will be worth enough more to make it worth holding.

Or maybe they have demand from breakers who couldn’t get volume on day one? Has anyone checked to see what revenue breakers seem to be able to get on a per box basis? If they are getting $300, maybe they’d be willing to pay $250, and the middle men would be willing to buy at $200 to get to the breakers?


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I would guess for this particular product that:

5%-10% was purchased for personal consumption (ripping for self/collectors)
20%-30% was purchased for breakers to rip for customers
60%-70% was purchased by individuals/companies to put away for a long term investment/sell out of retail store for a higher price not caring if it moves or not.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pewe

Isn’t an immediate ~30% loss kind of a bad result for those who bought day 1???


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It is, so the big retailers are not filling their buy orders. No one wants to lose 30% in three weeks, unless they are desperate.

None of the big guys carry the product, yet.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I would guess for this particular product that:

5%-10% was purchased for personal consumption (ripping for self/collectors)
20%-30% was purchased for breakers to rip for customers
60%-70% was purchased by individuals/companies to put away for a long term investment/sell out of retail store for a higher price not caring if it moves or not.

So you figure: hoard singles now, as availability will be poor going forward?


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by LVDan

See how what works?
No one is entitled to anything.
No one to blame for anything.

I’m struggling to see what point you’re attempting to make.


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My point is singles collectors are holding out for singles to come out so they can be picked up cheap, they didn't want to pay the $250/box price to play.

Unfortunately, we aren't going to see a flood of singles come up, it will be like a slow trickle, like in men with large prostates, of people/breakers who gradually open this up.

Box prices won't drop like most people were hoping earlier in the thread. They thought that by not buying from topps, they would be able to find it cheaper later. Unfortunately, they will miss out.

Maybe the disappointed ones were the ones who wanted to sell their boxes immediately for profit. It came out so high in price, the profit margin wasn't there. So they pout about it.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pewe

So you figure: hoard singles now, as availability will be poor going forward?


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I think it will be very poor.

It's too expensive to rip.

It's too hard to pull really good stuff.

Sealed box prices will stay high.

So no one will ever open this product, except for breakers, albeit at a slow pace.

It's like many of the national treasures cases that people got from the "money tree."

You won't see a whole lot of singles because it will be traded around as a sealed product for eternity, as an investment vehicle, so as long as any single player stays hot in the product.

[LVDan]

We just disagree is all. I don’t think many people thought that by declining to buy this $100 product for $250 that they’d be able to buy cheaper later. I think most just flipped a bird to the product overall.
This is a ridiculous price point. Period. Games will be played to try and entice and some will sell to mostly breakers.
With no autos to procure we know how little this costs to produce. They can back door 80% of the PR at “heavily discounted” prices and still make a mint.
Weather the distys make any $ or just spin their wheels with this one remains to be seen. As long as Julio mashes it’s all good.
The manufacture/ disty relationship is symbiotic in this business to an extreme degree.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by LVDan

We just disagree is all. I don’t think many people thought that by declining to buy this $100 product for $250 that they’d be able to buy cheaper later. I think most just flipped a bird to the product overall.
This is a ridiculous price point. Period. Games will be played to try and entice and some will sell to mostly breakers.
With no autos to procure we know how little this costs to produce. They can back door 80% of the PR at “heavily discounted” prices and still make a mint.
Weather the distys make any $ or just spin their wheels with this one remains to be seen. As long as Julio mashes it’s all good.
The manufacture/ disty relationship is symbiotic in this business to an extreme degree.

I'm just wondering if collectors would have felt differently about the product if it had very limited availability on the topps direct website for $100 (say 500 boxes only - which would have sold out in a minute), then appeared on the big box retailer shelves for $250 on the day after release?

Would the few lucky ones who got boxes for $100 be pumping it up as "product of the year?" and singing it's praises constantly?

Because this is one the first products where Topps is the one profiting directly, rather than the big box retailers, but it changes everyone's perception.

Let me correct myself - it changes the box flipper's perception.

As a collector, it doesn't really matter to me if I paid $250 for the box to a dude at a show, bought in on ebay, bought in on Topps, or bought it on blowout - it's a great looking product regardless.

But as a flipper, their entitled profitz were wiped away immediately by Topps - which I respect Topps for doing even though I, like everyone else, would prefer to pay a cheaper price for the box.

The main ones complaining about this product's price and trying to discredit it are the MIDDLEMEN, ie flippers and profiteers.

[pewe]

So… what are folks thinking the fair multiples vs. base sapphire are in 2022?

Is gold x5?


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by pewe

So… what are folks thinking the fair multiples vs. base sapphire are in 2022?

Is gold x5?


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Depends on the player - could be up to 25x for commons.