First Buzz: 2020 Topps Series 1 baseball cards

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I've always thought that they should work backwards into the card design. Figure out a great design that makes the parallels pop, and worry less about the base look. The parallels is what drives the big buyers, the "hobby" (these days) and it gives you something sexier to sell from the start.

If Topps manages to stumble into a great full bordered design during this flasgship craze there will be a LOT of collectors and speculators rejoicing.
Myself included. I look at 2011-2014 cards very fondly these days.

[dizzydolse]

So this product jumped $250 in presell in a couple weeks? Wasn't the price of a case at $550? Insane to me, I was never a big case breaker but is this normal?

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by dizzydolse

So this product jumped $250 in presell in a couple weeks? Wasn't the price of a case at $550? Insane to me, I was never a big case breaker but is this normal?

Yes, then will drop down once everyone moves on to the next product. Series 1 always stinks, I get the rookies have interest but the production levels will always keep this down.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by dizzydolse

So this product jumped $250 in presell in a couple weeks? Wasn't the price of a case at $550? Insane to me, I was never a big case breaker but is this normal?

More insane is that you could get a case of jumbo and hobby for under $1200 for months, while 2019 Update took months to get under $1200.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

More insane is that you could get a case of jumbo and hobby for under $1200 for months, while 2019 Update took months to get under $1200.

That’s because greedy “distributors” assumed this(current trend) was an Update thing when it’s actually a 1st flagship thing.


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[griffan15]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Yes, then will drop down once everyone moves on to the next product. Series 1 always stinks, I get the rookies have interest but the production levels will always keep this down.

This USED to be the case until 2018 Update and 2019 Series 2 happened. This won't get to 2018 Update prices, but 2019 Series 2 is more than possible.

The collective focus for baseball card collectors has shifted to flagship and this is the next product to reap the benefits. People are loving the RC checklist and the parallels that go with it.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by griffan15

This USED to be the case until 2018 Update and 2019 Series 2 happened. This won't get to 2018 Update prices, but 2019 Series 2 is more than possible.

The collective focus for baseball card collectors has shifted to flagship and this is the next product to reap the benefits. People are loving the RC checklist and the parallels that go with it.

I hear you, I do. But 2018 has a nice checklist for series 1. Update doesn't have the base rookies in 8 million factory sets.

What other year of series 1 are we seeing major demand for?

[ThoseBackPages]

as long as factory sets are made, Non-Update Wax will be suppressed (yes, 2019 S2 be damned)

[dizzydolse]

Yeah, there is just so much of it. And this is not a very hot take right now but I don't think the rookie class is even that earth shattering other than Yordan, who is definitely a beast. A lot of good players, not great.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

I hear you, I do. But 2018 has a nice checklist for series 1. Update doesn't have the base rookies in 8 million factory sets.

What other year of series 1 are we seeing major demand for?

This is the first Flagship release where Flagship fever is in full effect.

2018 Series 1 has a great RC checklist. But it's not at the forefront of people's minds. Easier to start high and stay high than it is to start low, go lower, then go high.

[dizzydolse]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

More insane is that you could get a case of jumbo and hobby for under $1200 for months, while 2019 Update took months to get under $1200.

Yeah, I would have bought a case at $550, which seems appropriate but I can't justify it now. Maybe just buy a Yordan Chrome auto and call it a day.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I've always thought that they should work backwards into the card design. Figure out a great design that makes the parallels pop, and worry less about the base look. The parallels is what drives the big buyers, the "hobby" (these days) and it gives you something sexier to sell from the start.

Agreed the parallels are really hard to notice for 2017 cards, and I'm guessing to a lesser extent with 2020.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

as long as factory sets are made, Non-Update Wax will be suppressed (yes, 2019 S2 be damned)

Isn't there ~250K cards made irrespective of factory sets? For series 2 2019, what percentage of base rookie cards for sale on ebay do you think are from factory sets versus retail, hobby, etc.

[LVDan]

Tatis parallels have turned the whole S1+S2 vs. Update thing into a somewhat moot point.
If 1st flaship Topps Golds and Topps Blacks continue to be hobby top dogs going forward there is one place to find them- in the wax. Base card production numbers be damned.
Golds will always be/ year of release found in packs only. Blacks will always be/70, /71 etc. found only in packs.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

as long as factory sets are made, Non-Update Wax will be suppressed (yes, 2019 S2 be damned)

Parallels are pushing these case prices, not base cards. The factory sets hurt the base cards and base graded cards some, but that is it.

[dmanrico]

This board makes my head hurt sometimes. It's crazy how much the collective mood swings sometimes on here.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Parallels are pushing these case prices, not base cards. The factory sets hurt the base cards and base graded cards some, but that is it.

you say "that is it", like that's not something significant.

im not saying 2019 S2 Wax is not good, but its not nearly as good as it would be if it were a set that was not available as a factory set

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

you say "that is it", like that's not something significant.

im not saying 2019 S2 Wax is not good, but its not nearly as good as it would be if it were a set that was not available as a factory set

Agree 100% that it would be better with no factory sets. But my point is the parallels are what's pushing case prices in spite of that. If there were no factory sets (or limited amounts) the prices would be even more insane. We are in a whole new level that the hobby has never seen. Someone will get left with the hot potatoe at some point, because this can't keep going like it has been. Topps Series 1 selling for 30%-40% markups before release is almost unbelievable. That people are actually paying that.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Yes, then will drop down once everyone moves on to the next product. Series 1 always stinks, I get the rookies have interest but the production levels will always keep this down.

SMH. Series 1 is how I build up the foundation to buy other stuff throughout the year. It never fails to generate a profit.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Agree 100% that it would be better with no factory sets. But my point is the parallels are what's pushing case prices in spite of that. If there were no factory sets (or limited amounts) the prices would be even more insane. We are in a whole new level that the hobby has never seen. Someone will get left with the hot potatoe at some point, because this can't keep going like it has been. Topps Series 1 selling for 30%-40% markups before release is almost unbelievable. That people are actually paying that.

man, i couldnt agree more.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

SMH. Series 1 is how I build up the foundation to buy other stuff throughout the year. It never fails to generate a profit.

We are talking different angles.

I'm speaking of sealed product. Sure, if you rip and flip within the first week you can make money.

What I am saying is that Series 1 always drops. The singles and the boxes. It never fails. Heritage comes out and this stuff is moved on from. Every single year.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

We are talking different angles.

I'm speaking of sealed product. Sure, if you rip and flip within the first week you can make money.

What I am saying is that Series 1 always drops. The singles and the boxes. It never fails. Heritage comes out and this stuff is moved on from. Every single year.

Again, this is the first Series 1 release where Flagship fever is active. The hobby was in a different place in January 2019.

Heritage is a nice product, and will have a good RC crop. But it is not Flagship. And everyone wants Flagship.

[LVDan]

I think one other valid point(other than the factory sets) that can somewhat hold down s1 wax is that s1 RCs will appear in virtually every Topps offering all year long, meaning all these guys will have cards in TC, TC Sapphire, Heritage (ROAs),etc.
Flagship parallels will always be in high demand but when the shinier, newer toys appear later in the calendar year the demand may subside. But because it's the first place to get high end RCs(color) I expect this is more the norm going forward. For a few years at least until something else becomes the go-to in the next cycle of desirability.

[ThoseBackPages]

i cant see Series 1 wax being highly sought after as time goes by.

not to mention Topps makes more of it then anything else they make

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by dmanrico

This board makes my head hurt sometimes. It's crazy how much the collective mood swings sometimes on here.

Lol didn't you just yesterday buy a PSA 10 NNO for $165 in BST? Big swing from passing on them at the $100 going rate just 10 days ago