2019-20 NT FOTL

[tier1dc]

Originally Posted by adam711

Ok Blowout time to put out a strong opening offer

Originally Posted by blinkme323

I think BO will throw out a token $7600 offer just to be slightly above the floor. It surely won't be much more than that.

no chance.

expect $7k or less on the offer.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by dcarado

I agree. Why would they rush to put out a big offer knowing a lot of the people who buy FOTL can't afford to hold it. For everyone who got in at or close to the floor, congrats. If you can afford to sit on it, it will pay off in the long run. Just DO NOT OPEN

Time has cost. What exactly does "pay off" mean? You think these will be $15k in a year? $15k in two years? $15k in three years? There are simply better alternatives out there with potential for bigger returns in a shorter period of time.

[dcarado]

This has probably been mentioned elsewhere, but I think most people were expecting these to sell out at $10k-12k, and I fully believe that's what they're worth in the current market, I just think there are very few people who can get there. Sooo, seeing that Noir dropped from $6k to $5k a week from release, plus how today went, are we expecting a correction in case price for regular NT? I seriously do not know how breakers are going to fill a 99-spot serial at $150 a spot. Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but will breakers be down to $12k on cases within a couple weeks?

[Diesel55]

Group breakers probably get these direct from Panini for MSRP.

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk

[adam711]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Time has cost. What exactly does "pay off" mean? You think these will be $15k in a year? $15k in two years? $15k in three years? There are simply better alternatives out there with potential for bigger returns in a shorter period of time.

I call BS on this. Where are the bigger returns at this low risk level? If you know then you are a billionaire. 1 year range on a box is like -15% to 100% ROI

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by mrdallas

I dont think BO offers abive sell out price. Yet. They may move later but putting it in perspective, the product hit the floor and stayed there for a few minutes. If BO has a bot, which I bet they do. Then they got in in these at the floor. They will wait to see what they can sell them for before they up the ante

Just my opinion

I can't see BO putting forth a bounty when they could've bought as many as they wanted at the floor.

The fact that it was available until Panini pulled it shows a lack of demand at that price-point.

Too risky for BO to offer more than $8k for a small return when they could easily load up on some lower cost yet highly demanded products (via their purchasing program) for a fraction of that price-point while netting the same amount of profit (in other words, risk signficantly less and net the same).

But only time will tell.

[yiguiri2002]

BO knows that these will go for 10-11 on the short run on eBay. They also know that people who got in the bottom got in at around 8 once you include taxes.

What kind of offer can they really do? 8.5 is the only thing I can think where people get a profit and might sell them while they can take the risk of the boxes sitting in Inventory for a while.

[kyle121592]

Originally Posted by adam711

I call BS on this. Where are the bigger returns at this low risk level? If you know then you are a billionaire. 1 year range on a box is like -15% to 100% ROI

You are playing the wrong game if you think that there aren't better alternatives out there at the same price point.

[Digitaljordan]

Originally Posted by Diesel55

Group breakers probably get these direct from Panini for MSRP.

Legit group breakers are defiantly paying way less through pre-orders from distributors.

The funny thing to see will be breakers like 1of1 breaks who just go buy the products from LCS or online and then try and fill breaks for 2x the price the big breakers charge.

[Digerati]

Imagine how many of these boxes will stay unopened because of how insane this whole hobby has gotten.
For every person that bought one or will buy one at release there are probably about a million that would never spend this kind of cash OR join breaks at the price. Whatever the number is it must be a new low for Panini at any price point.
Really sad for collectors.

[Asian62150]

Maybe BO will offer $7K at the start for ppl who bought thinking it would be a quick flip.

Buy out the scared money.

[adam711]

Originally Posted by kyle121592

You are playing the wrong game if you think that there aren't better alternatives out there at the same price point.

Name one?

[mrdallas]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

I can't see BO putting forth a bounty when they could've bought as many as they wanted at the floor.

The fact that it was available until Panini pulled it shows a lack of demand at that price-point.

Too risky for BO to offer more than $8k for a small return when they could easily load up on some lower cost yet highly demanded products (via their purchasing program) for a fraction of that price-point while netting the same amount of profit (in other words, risk signficantly less and net the same).

But only time will tell.

Then you and I are in agreement. for the most part. Maybe they don't even put a bounty but I don't see it being above the floor

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by adam711

I call BS on this. Where are the bigger returns at this low risk level? If you know then you are a billionaire. 1 year range on a box is like -15% to 100% ROI

Most people probably spent around $8000-$8250 (factoring in sales tax) to buy a box. These people are going to want (at the minimum) to break even to sell to BO. That means that BO would need to offer around $8500 to actually acquire any.

Risking $8500 to make a couple grand is A LOT of risk (even if they make $2.5k on it, that's only 23.5% ROI).

Just using the following product as an example (there might be other "better" plays but this is one that I know could work for them), they could easily put forth a bounty of $40 per for 2019-20 Mosaic Hanger Boxes and load up. Then they could list them at their current price $59.95 (50% ROI) or bump the price up like they did in the past (it got to as high as $75-$80). Eventually, those boxes will sell out because it's not only demanded but one of the more affordable 2019-20 sealed BKB options. Remember, this is just one random example but there's likely other "better" plays out there. And that's the point, you can risk less money to net the same (or more) profit.

[mrdallas]

Originally Posted by adam711

Name one?

So you Honestly feel that even getting in at the floor of $7,500 was low risk? And this is if you are lucky enough to be in a state w/o taxes. Most paid 8K or above. Short term? Or Long Term? Cause short term this price is one of the few times I don't see the price being close to a sure thing. And if BO or some of the other buyers don't come in with an offer people are going to Panic. And I for one do not see them offering above floor if at all

[Pierce09]

Originally Posted by adam711

Name one?

Id take 2 boxes 2012-13 prizm on BO at 6K over one box of this at 7K easy.

[mcgee2134]

Good luck making any money on these, LOL! As others have already said with selling fees and taxes you'd have to sell at almost $8500 to break even.

But I think the even bigger issue is that most people bought to resell and with so many people buying to resell there will be a plethora of the product out there without the demand for it. Then prices will probably drop or people will be stuck with their box unable to sell for what they paid for it.

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by Digerati

Imagine how many of these boxes will stay unopened because of how insane this whole hobby has gotten.
For every person that bought one or will buy one at release there are probably about a million that would never spend this kind of cash OR join breaks at the price. Whatever the number is it must be a new low for Panini at any price point.
Really sad for collectors.

Imagine what the price of a Lebron exquisite RPA would be if Exquisite was this relatively "un-openable" back in 03-04. That is why I think we're going to see some ungodly numbers on the top RPAs that do hit the market. If Zion pans out, how much of this stuff will ever be in circulation?

[Diesel55]

Just imagine Zion decides to go back to college. Lol

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[mrdallas]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Most people probably spent around $8000-$8250 (factoring in sales tax) to buy a box. These people are going to want (at the minimum) to break even to sell to BO. That means that BO would need to offer around $8500 to actually acquire any.

Risking $8500 to make a couple grand is A LOT of risk (even if they make $2.5k on it, that's only 23.5% ROI).

Just using the following product as an example (there might be other "better" plays but this is one that I know could work for them), they could easily put forth a bounty of $40 per for 2019-20 Mosaic Hanger Boxes and load up. Then they could list them at their current price $59.95 (50% ROI) or bump the price up like they did in the past (it got to as high as $75-$80). Eventually, those boxes will sell out because it's not only demanded but one of the more affordable 2019-20 sealed BKB options. Remember, this is just one random example but there's likely other "better" plays out there. And that's the point, you can risk less money to net the same (or more) profit.

My buddy kept asking me if he should pull the trigger. I said only if time to sit on it. If for short term it is a lot to risk for little return, if you can even make that. He did not buy one

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Most people probably spent around $8000-$8250 (factoring in sales tax) to buy a box. These people are going to want (at the minimum) to break even to sell to BO. That means that BO would need to offer around $8500 to actually acquire any.

Risking $8500 to make a couple grand is A LOT of risk (even if they make $2.5k on it, that's only 23.5% ROI).

Just using the following product as an example (there might be other "better" plays but this is one that I know could work for them), they could easily put forth a bounty of $40 per for 2019-20 Mosaic Hanger Boxes and load up. Then they could list them at their current price $59.95 (50% ROI) or bump the price up like they did in the past (it got to as high as $75-$80). Eventually, those boxes will sell out because it's not only demanded but one of the more affordable 2019-20 sealed BKB options. Remember, this is just one random example but there's likely other "better" plays out there. And that's the point, you can risk less money to net the same (or more) profit.

This is true.

But BO's bounty on 2018-19 NT FOTL is $7K.

BO is offering more for every other 2019-20 product compared to its 2018-19 counterpart.

Panini messed up by setting such a high floor with this. A lot of it is the mental/emotional game and lots of people were turned off from the start.

It's like starting an auction at $10K when the item typically sells for $12K. Many people will look at it and just say it isn't worth their time. Losing those eyeballs matters.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by adam711

I call BS on this. Where are the bigger returns at this low risk level? If you know then you are a billionaire. 1 year range on a box is like -15% to 100% ROI

Literally any LBJ or MJ you have been buying over the last year. And there continues to be pockets in the hobby that are grossly undervalued.

Again, what is the expected ROI for this box in a year? Do we really think the market will command $15k? Honest question.

[mrdallas]

My only hope is that if there are people trying to get their money back if they bought for over 10K that Panini and their CC companies tell them to take a hike. Maybe that will weed out some of the new "investors'

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

This is true.

But BO's bounty on 2018-19 NT FOTL is $7K.

BO is offering more for every other 2019-20 product compared to its 2018-19 counterpart.

Panini messed up by setting such a high floor with this. A lot of it is the mental/emotional game and lots of people were turned off from the start.

It's like starting an auction at $10K when the item typically sells for $12K. Many people will look at it and just say it isn't worth their time. Losing those eyeballs matters.

People bought 18-19 at way lower than 7k though. That's why the offer makes sense compared to the market price, people can still make a profit while selling to BO.

It would be almost impossible to find a price point where people make a profit and is worth it for BO to take the risk. Remember, at those price points, it's not easy to fill a break or sell the box. It can be sitting in Inventory for a few months.

[riceoroni]

i wonder how many chargebacks panini experienced since launching this dutch auction BS