American League MVP

[rman112]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

... but it hurts his HOF chances is the point we've been discussing. He lost significant time (over a full season) from 2019-2020 where he should have been racking up counting stats and WAR.

He could very well end up right on the edge. Same thing with deGrom. We already knew what they were capable of at that point in their careers.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by JRX

Then they'll change the rule to be 10 years for a 1-way player or 5 years as a 2-way player with some min pa/ab. If he does another 3 years at this level and then goes to Japan, he's still getting in the hof. Its a museum that makes up its own rules and changes them whenever they want.

Yeah, he'll get in. You know, when he buys a ticket.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I get that, but that's part of the game. He has to stay on the field to rack up a HOF case.

It definitely was not an "amazing" season. It was mediocre at best.


You sure seem to get worked up when we start bagging on Judge...

No, you just think I'm making a different point than I am. You seem to think I'm making the point as a way to say that Judge is going to the HOF.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by rman112

He could very well end up right on the edge. Same thing with deGrom. We already knew what they were capable of at that point in their careers.

"Capable of" is a qualifier for HOF now? It doesn't matter what they actually do anymore?

[Trueblue]

Not going to lie. This thread is pretty entertaining in how far people are willing to stretch or reach across the table to support their own guy.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

"Capable of" is a qualifier for HOF now? It doesn't matter what they actually do anymore?

2020 is pretty unique in that it's none of the players' faults that they didn't put up a full season's stats. It would probably be comparable to strike seasons, or war seasons of the past.

If a guy produced, missed time due to WW2 or whatever, and returned and produced again .. I think it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt if his HOF resume ends up borderline.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by rman112

2020 is pretty unique in that it's none of the players' faults that they didn't put up a full season's stats. It would probably be comparable to strike seasons, or war seasons of the past.

If a guy produced, missed time due to WW2 or whatever, and returned and produced again .. I think it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt if his HOF resume ends up borderline.

Sure, I'll give that one season. However, it's also important to note that season was 60 games long, of which Judge played a whopping 28. So while I do believe that voters might give people a small boost because of this, I sure hope they remember that he likely would have played less than 100 games and not give him credit for 162.


However, outside of HR's, how do you think Judge's HOF case will be "borderline"?

In 5 years, he might not even have 1500 hits and be pushing 1800-2000 K's.

[seanrs1]

I was under the impression Ohtani came to MLB and took a much lower signing bonus because he wants to become an all time great MLB. I also get the impression he wants to play a long time in MLB and follow the footsteps of Ichiro. If he just wanted to play in MLB for a few years he could have waited and received a much higher bonus/contract. Another reason why I collect Ohtani...he seems like a great person dedicated to his craft and wants to be the best.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Sure, I'll give that one season. However, it's also important to note that season was 60 games long, of which Judge played a whopping 28. So while I do believe that voters might give people a small boost because of this, I sure hope they remember that he likely would have played less than 100 games and not give him credit for 162.


However, outside of HR's, how do you think Judge's HOF case will be "borderline"?

In 5 years, he might not even have 1500 hits and be pushing 1800-2000 K's.

Its mostly going to be hr, lets assume 1 mvp, 1 2nd place finish that a lot of voters will look at him being robbed of. He does still need to play another 7 years and who knows what team that will even be for. He's someone that hit 50+ twice its not outside the realm of possibility that he does it at least once more.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I was under the impression Ohtani came to MLB and took a much lower signing bonus because he wants to become an all time great MLB. I also get the impression he wants to play a long time in MLB and follow the footsteps of Ichiro. If he just wanted to play in MLB for a few years he could have waited and received a much higher bonus/contract. Another reason why I collect Ohtani...he seems like a great person dedicated to his craft and wants to be the best.

Don't get me wrong, I hope he does and think he will. You just never know though. Assuming he continues to perform, the 10-year service time hurdle is the only thing he'd need to clear, IMO. He just has to get there, and his injury history isn't exactly pristine.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Sure, I'll give that one season. However, it's also important to note that season was 60 games long, of which Judge played a whopping 28. So while I do believe that voters might give people a small boost because of this, I sure hope they remember that he likely would have played less than 100 games and not give him credit for 162.


However, outside of HR's, how do you think Judge's HOF case will be "borderline"?

In 5 years, he might not even have 1500 hits and be pushing 1800-2000 K's.

..

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Both players are on the HOF track per WAR for their age.

..

Check out Silent George's thread. It's pretty cool. Recent update (and that was 3 HR ago!)

Originally Posted by Silent George

Age 30 Career Goal: 25.2 - 32.8 WAR

Bryant, Kris 0.0 // 0.0 // 32.0 DL
Won't have an update on his foot for another week. There aren't exactly a lot of weeks left.

Judge, Aaron 0.7 // 8.3 // 32.9
Judge started the year needing 0.6 WAR to stay on the tracker, and now as of this update he's on a HOF pace. Only 21 players have ever hit more HR in a season than Judge this year, and one of those players is Aaron Judge.

Yelich, Christian 0.6// 2.2 // 36.8
I mean, his 112OPS+ is the highest since his MVP years, so that's something. But his MVP years are looking more Maris like by the day.

Trout, Mike 0.5 // 4.0 // 80.2
1500 career hits, and now 80 WAR, for a guy left for dead a month ago. One has to wonder how terribly Mike's depression would spiral if he ever went on blowout and learned how actually bad he is.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by JRX

Its mostly going to be hr, lets assume 1 mvp, 1 2nd place finish that a lot of voters will look at him being robbed of. He does still need to play another 7 years and who knows what team that will even be for. He's someone that hit 50+ twice its not outside the realm of possibility that he does it at least once more.

Oh, I absolutely believe he'll hit 50+ again, but let's look at his body of work to date.

He's currently sitting at 212 HR. To get to that magical/arbitrary "500" milestone, he'd need to hit around 50... for six additional seasons... in his mid-to-late 30's.

Then, he's going to likely need to pile on something other than just HR's. If he's not careful, his career will look like a true 3-outcome player. K, BB, HR. In that order.

[imbluestreak23]

Aside from the super stars ~ Mookie Betts debut time frame and earlier (Trout/Max/Verlander/Kershaw etc), there is not one active player I would bet more on for making the hall than Ohtani. Over Juan/Ron/Tatis (hehe)/Vlad/Wander/Lil Bobby/Uncle Julio/Volpe/Volpes future kid/Dominguez/and even Elly

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Oh, I absolutely believe he'll hit 50+ again, but let's look at his body of work to date.

He's currently sitting at 212 HR. To get to that magical/arbitrary "500" milestone, he'd need to hit around 50... for six additional seasons... in his mid-to-late 30's.

Then, he's going to likely need to pile on something other than just HR's. If he's not careful, his career will look like a true 3-outcome player. K, BB, HR. In that order.

He could end up around 220+ at the end of the year so he needs 280 over say 8 years, about 35 a year. If he does another 50+ season he can afford another injury season. You seem to think that everyone is saying he's a lock today, he's not, but he most certainly has a path. Going into this season I would have said he didn't really have one, but potentially having a 60HR season changes things.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Aside from the super stars ~ Mookie Betts debut time frame and earlier (Trout/Max/Verlander/Kershaw etc), there is not one active player I would bet more on for making the hall than Ohtani. Over Juan/Ron/Tatis (hehe)/Vlad/Wander/Lil Bobby/Uncle Julio/Volpe/Volpes future kid/Dominguez/and even Elly

I would probably agree with this. Soto would be my second out of that list (assuming he can figure it out this offseason).

Just has to make it to 10 years. Nothing is given. He could have a career-ending injury or something (**knock on wood he doesn't**).

[rngrdanny22]

Just a little reminder why I'm harping on the servicing time thing so much.

Let's not forget this is Judge's 7th season.

He has 5.051 years of service time. A player has to do more than just "play in 10 seasons".

Note, I'm not sure how 2020 was treated for service time, but that still leaves about a 1 year gap for Judge even if we completely discredited that entire year (6 seasons, 5 service time).

[oldgoldy97]

So Judge is the overwhelming decision?

[Boo]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

So Judge is the overwhelming decision?

Has been for weeks, only the Ohtani fanboys think otherwise.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by JRX

He could end up around 220+ at the end of the year so he needs 280 over say 8 years, about 35 a year. If he does another 50+ season he can afford another injury season. You seem to think that everyone is saying he's a lock today, he's not, but he most certainly has a path. Going into this season I would have said he didn't really have one, but potentially having a 60HR season changes things.

This. It's not that difficult a premise.

[fabiani12333]

A lot of recency bias for Judge in this thread when discussing his HoF chances. He's having an epic season at age 30 and people are extrapolating the rest of his career based on one peak season. The truth is, in between 2018 and last season, he was mostly injury prone and only reached 30 home runs once in three full seasons (not including pandemic shortened season).

Giancarlo Stanton had 59 home runs at age 27 and hasn't reached 40 home runs again. The 30s is when players decline and become injury prone -- not put up peak numbers.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Just a little reminder why I'm harping on the servicing time thing so much.

Let's not forget this is Judge's 7th season.

He has 5.051 years of service time. A player has to do more than just "play in 10 seasons".

Note, I'm not sure how 2020 was treated for service time, but that still leaves about a 1 year gap for Judge even if we completely discredited that entire year (6 seasons, 5 service time).

Also he's hurt a lot.

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

Also he's hurt a lot.

So true, he's missed a ton of games this year.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by cnewby

So true, he's missed a ton of games this year.

Yeah, because that's what we meant.

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by JRX

But it won't be raining by game time.

I can't stand when they call games way early instead of seeing how the actual weather plays out.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

A lot of recency bias for Judge in this thread when discussing his HoF chances. He's having an epic season at age 30 and people are extrapolating the rest of his career based on one peak season. The truth is, in between 2018 and last season, he was mostly injury prone and only reached 30 home runs once in three full seasons (not including pandemic shortened season).

Giancarlo Stanton had 59 home runs at age 27 and hasn't reached 40 home runs again. The 30s is when players decline and become injury prone -- not put up peak numbers.

Edgar Martinez says no, it’s more rare than common but others were more dominant in their 30’s, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez stats.

Judge .261 % of the Yankees offensive production. It was in low .250’s roughly 2 weeks ago.