2019-20 NT FOTL

[adam711]

Originally Posted by mrdallas

So you Honestly feel that even getting in at the floor of $7,500 was low risk? And this is if you are lucky enough to be in a state w/o taxes. Most paid 8K or above. Short term? Or Long Term? Cause short term this price is one of the few times I don't see the price being close to a sure thing. And if BO or some of the other buyers don't come in with an offer people are going to Panic. And I for one do not see them offering above floor if at all

I'm talking long term (in card world, say over 90 days). I think the risk is losing about 15% of your money in a worst case scenario, but that is just my opinion, and I'd put that as like a <5% probability.

[ksp6687]

Originally Posted by mrdallas

So you Honestly feel that even getting in at the floor of $7,500 was low risk? And this is if you are lucky enough to be in a state w/o taxes. Most paid 8K or above. Short term? Or Long Term? Cause short term this price is one of the few times I don't see the price being close to a sure thing. And if BO or some of the other buyers don't come in with an offer people are going to Panic. And I for one do not see them offering above floor if at all

How many boxes of this were even produced? Isn't the number around 3200?

At 8k or so a box you've got to think most of the buyers are Group Breakers, people in the industry in one way or another or people who are well enough to do to afford an 8k purchase somewhat easily. This isn't some $300 product where the people who bought a few boxes may not be able to pay rent next month if they don't flip ASAP.

Realistically how many people in the brackets I just mentioned are going to potentially panic sell? I'd say not many tbh

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally any LBJ or MJ you have been buying over the last year. And there continues to be pockets in the hobby that are grossly undervalued.

Again, what is the expected ROI for this box in a year? Do we really think the market will command $15k? Honest question.

I agree there are plenty of other good investments out there. Lower risk (in terms of capital) and better ROI.

I don't expect this to be $15K in a year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is.

This year's NBA playoffs are going to be unpredictable. The odds for underdogs are greatly increased compared to traditional years.

If Zion or Ja make the playoffs and either does anything, these could be $15K in 4 months.

Either way, $7500 is just a lot to risk on these.

[mrdallas]

Originally Posted by adam711

I'm talking long term (in card world, say over 90 days). I think the risk is losing about 15% of your money in a worst case scenario, but that is just my opinion, and I'd put that as like a <5% probability.

Well this auction could be a good barometer for all of us to see in the short term.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-20-Nat...8AAOSw8Lhe2SvF

Bids at 8K. with everyone else with High BIN this will be the one that could help set the market unless people come down on their BIN prices

And no, NOT my auction or anyone I know

[gomiamigo]

Honestly I might have bought one had I known they would fall to 7500. Prob easy flip at 9-10k in the future assuming Zion's live. Sell it at a big show no problem. Worst case take a small loss or just hold on longer.

I think the right GB strategy is not serial number but by player, they'll sell out no problem at $22-25 for a chance at Zion, Ja, Lebron, logomans.

25*366 = 9150 that's over 20% roi easy if you got at 7500 [or less!]

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I agree there are plenty of other good investments out there. Lower risk (in terms of capital) and better ROI.

I don't expect this to be $15K in a year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is.

This year's NBA playoffs are going to be unpredictable. The odds for underdogs are greatly increased compared to traditional years.

If Zion or Ja make the playoffs and either does anything, these could be $15K in 4 months.

Either way, $7500 is just a lot to risk on these.

People weren't clamoring to buy today at $7.5K in arguably the hottest period of time in the Hobby since the Junk Wax Era. Why in the world would people buy it at $15K down the line?

Again, I can get 18/19 for under $10K and that has Luka and Trae who are both more proven than Zion and Ja.

The problem here is volume. Not many are going to risk it busting, and the box run is roughly 50% higher than last year. These are going to be on the market for a while.

How many breaks can the breakers realistically fill at a $10K price point to get some of these cards on the market? Likely not very many.

Supply high vs. Demand low at the price point.

[mrdallas]

Originally Posted by ksp6687

How many boxes of this were even produced? Isn't the number around 3200?

At 8k or so a box you've got to think most of the buyers are Group Breakers, people in the industry in one way or another or people who are well enough to do to afford an 8k purchase somewhat easily. This isn't some $300 product where the people who bought a few boxes may not be able to pay rent next month if they don't flip ASAP.

Realistically how many people in the brackets I just mentioned are going to potentially panic sell? I'd say not many tbh

With 50 RPA /30 and /3 there would have been around 1,650 boxes if my math holds up. And you are right, many breakers are probably the bulk of the buyers. But there are some that are not breakers thinking this was a ticket to a pay day and banked on it. For those I am not seeing it.

I also think that the limited boxes on eBay right now (around 12) THAT your theory about breakers buying the bulk is probably accurate.

[adam711]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally any LBJ or MJ you have been buying over the last year. And there continues to be pockets in the hobby that are grossly undervalued.

Again, what is the expected ROI for this box in a year? Do we really think the market will command $15k? Honest question.

You can't look at Lebron or Jordan in hindsight. If I bought a $7,500 MJ auto right now at current market value to flip, I feel the risk is a lot higher than a sealed box of NT FOTL at $7,500.

I think the boxes doubling is probably the same odds as the boxes losing 15% value. I would think somewhere in the 10-12k range in a year is where these will be, which is a return any investor would love to have.

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally any LBJ or MJ you have been buying over the last year. And there continues to be pockets in the hobby that are grossly undervalued.

Again, what is the expected ROI for this box in a year? Do we really think the market will command $15k? Honest question.

It could. Look at what is being charged for this current year's basketball cases:

Hoops = 6k
Donruss = 7.4k
Mosaic = 8k
Prizm = 13.7k

No one would have expected those prices for those mass-produced sets.

In short, who knows? This basketball market is unprecedented.

[Tim]

Why do so many people continue down the same path of "look at 2018 prices" or "demand won't be there" or "breakers won't get that for this!" All either irrelevant or false. As long as the potential exists for a BIG payout card from a box, breaks will fill and boxes will be in demand. That simple.

[Jpayne7787]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

It could. Look at what is being charged for this current year's basketball cases:

Hoops = 6k
Donruss = 7.4k
Mosaic = 8k
Prizm = 13.7k

No one would have expected those prices for those mass-produced sets.

In short, who knows? This basketball market is unprecedented.

Yah but how many ppl are busting any of those products at that price point. I think there is a reason we’re seeing record low personal breaks and singles hitting the market from these products. 8k for mosaic lmao

[gomiamigo]

Yes, but boxes could fill at $9k and not $15k, there's a big diff there.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by Jpayne7787

Yah but how many ppl are busting any of those products at that price point. I think there is a reason we’re seeing record low personal breaks and singles hitting the market from these products. 8k for mosaic lmao

The group break board here just had 3 boxes of 19-20 prizm get busted (not a case, but still same price per box metric). So that was about $4,000 in breaking revenue after fees and all that nonsense.

Pulled $400 worth of cards combined.

This is going to be twice the bloodbath.

[WaiverWire]

My two cents is that these prices, especially after you add in taxes, are just plain stupid. Will people buy it? Sure. Will group breakers buy it? Absolutely. But for me personally, it's just too much, man. The basketball "collecting" world has lost its mind.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by adam711

You can't look at Lebron or Jordan in hindsight. If I bought a $7,500 MJ auto right now at current market value to flip, I feel the risk is a lot higher than a sealed box of NT FOTL at $7,500.

I think the boxes doubling is probably the same odds as the boxes losing 15% value. I would think somewhere in the 10-12k range in a year is where these will be, which is a return any investor would love to have.

My point is that I have been making money hands over fist in this hobby for the last year. So have many others. It's simply too easy. I strongly believe I can continue to do so, and $7500 in one NT FOTL box isn't how I want to spend my money.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Tim

Why do so many people continue down the same path of "look at 2018 prices" or "demand won't be there" or "breakers won't get that for this!" All either irrelevant or false. As long as the potential exists for a BIG payout card from a box, breaks will fill and boxes will be in demand. That simple.

How else would you judge a product without looking at history?

The Luka FOTL Parallel is a HUGE card with a big payout ($55K BGS 8.5 in February of this year).

How many 18/19 FOTL Breaks did you see when the product was in the $2.5K range? There are very few on YouTube where the breakers upload their videos.

There are NONE anymore, and the price point is roughly the same as this with the same high-end payout.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

People weren't clamoring to buy today at $7.5K in arguably the hottest period of time in the Hobby since the Junk Wax Era. Why in the world would people buy it at $15K down the line?

Again, I can get 18/19 for under $10K and that has Luka and Trae who are both more proven than Zion and Ja.

The problem here is volume. Not many are going to risk it busting, and the box run is roughly 50% higher than last year. These are going to be on the market for a while.

How many breaks can the breakers realistically fill at a $10K price point to get some of these cards on the market? Likely not very many.

Supply high vs. Demand low at the price point.

I agree, especially on the Luka/Trae vs. Zion/Ja statement.

But why is '19-20 product more expensive than '18-19? It's not just because '19-20 is the new shiny toy because by all accounts ppl won't be buying '20-21 for more than '19-20.

IF Zion or Ja tear it up in the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if these go up to $15K.

Do I expect that to happen? No.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

It could. Look at what is being charged for this current year's basketball cases:

Hoops = 6k
Donruss = 7.4k
Mosaic = 8k
Prizm = 13.7k

No one would have expected those prices for those mass-produced sets.

In short, who knows? This basketball market is unprecedented.

That's what's being charged by BO. Not what individuals are selling for. Steelcity is selling a 2018 box for $15k. BO is still offering $7k. That should give you an idea of the difficulty in getting to $15k in the next year.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I agree, especially on the Luka/Trae vs. Zion/Ja statement.

But why is '19-20 product more expensive than '18-19? It's not just because '19-20 is the new shiny toy because by all accounts ppl won't be buying '20-21 for more than '19-20.

IF Zion or Ja tear it up in the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if these go up to $15K.

Do I expect that to happen? No.

Is 19/20 higher? Not on Prizm or Optic.

On the low-end and lesser desired products yes it is (namely for those common inserts that people want to pay 3 figures for). The in-demand products, 18/19 is still more expensive.

[Asian62150]

Another thing to consider is liquidity.

MAYBE $7500 was a decent buy. And MAYBE the market will be $10K+ soon.

But converting that market price to a closed sale is more difficult then selling higher quantities of less valuable boxes/cards.

[sjay2k]

I think these will be strong especially if there are at least 1.5 RPAs per box as mentioned on the Panini Blog yesterday ("More than half the FOTL PE boxes will deliver both a Stars & Stripes RPA and a traditional RPA or RPA parallel numbered to 99 or less."). Does that mean the regular RPAs will fall at the same rate as Hobby?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by sjay2k

I think these will be strong especially if there are at least 1.5 RPAs per box as mentioned on the Panini Blog yesterday ("More than half the FOTL PE boxes will deliver both a Stars & Stripes RPA and a traditional RPA or RPA parallel numbered to 99 or less."). Does that mean the regular RPAs will fall at the same rate as Hobby?

It should mean they fall at a lower rate since they've allocated those cards to the FOTL release, which honestly makes FOTL that much more valuable than hobby.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Honestly I might have bought one had I known they would fall to 7500. Prob easy flip at 9-10k in the future assuming Zion's live. Sell it at a big show no problem. Worst case take a small loss or just hold on longer.

I think the right GB strategy is not serial number but by player, they'll sell out no problem at $22-25 for a chance at Zion, Ja, Lebron, logomans.

25*366 = 9150 that's over 20% roi easy if you got at 7500 [or less!]

But if they sell for 10k assuming Ebay then take around $1300 off the top for fess. That leaves $8700. Here in Indiana I would have paid $8,025 for the box with taxes leaving me with a profit of a whopping $625???? Who would risk that much money to only make $625??? And thats IF they get to $10K on Real Sales.

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That's what's being charged by BO. Not what individuals are selling for. Steelcity is selling a 2018 box for $15k. BO is still offering $7k. That should give you an idea of the difficulty in getting to $15k in the next year.

2018 is not 2019-20. We can argue all day about which rookie class is better. That doesn't matter at this point. Zion has created hype we haven't seen since, Lebron maybe? He just has that "it" factor.

Case in point, an ESPN reporter was talking about All Star weekend--rookies vs sophomores game. He said that when Zion took the court the atmosphere was electric, unlike anything he'd seen before. The crowd was hushed and then ooed and awed after everything he did. That shows the hype and demand for this rookie class.

Now, frankly, I think a LOT of that hype has already been priced into cards right now. 7.2k for a presell price of Chronicles? That's just plain nuts. But to argue what a box of FOTL COULD be in a year is just conjecture. We'll see what that first Zion /30 FOTL card sells for. And given the 50/50 chance that you land an additional RPA, there are people who will open and take that lottery ticket.

[Cavaliercards]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

But if they sell for 10k assuming Ebay then take around $1300 off the top for fess. That leaves $8700. Here in Indiana I would have paid $8,025 for the box with taxes leaving me with a profit of a whopping $625???? Who would risk that much money to only make $625??? And thats IF they get to $10K on Real Sales.

Fees are not going to be $1300 and plenty of people will be glad to take a quick easy $625 in profit