Mike Trout Investment Potential: 2024+

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by saferseas

I really wish he'd go G. Stanton mode and take it easy on the basepaths and DH part time. The power is still there....dude hit 10hrs in like a month last season.

^^This^^This^^This^^

[SaveMeTheGum]

Originally Posted by saferseas

I really wish he'd go G. Stanton mode and take it easy on the basepaths and DH part time. The power is still there....dude hit 10hrs in like a month last season.

How many of his recent injuries have been just from swinging though?

[fabiani12333]

The trend line for Trout in recent years has been pretty clear:

2022: 119 games
2023: 82 games
2024: 29 games

It's reasonable to expect his career to be in jeopardy at this point.


Top-five age-33 seasons from center fielders over the last twenty years (post-steroid era):

1. Ichiro Suzuki -- 2007 -- 6.1 fWAR
2. Mike Cameron -- 2006 -- 4.5 fWAR
3. Torii Hunter -- 2009 -- 3.8 fWAR
4. Coco Crisp -- 2013 -- 3.7 fWAR
5. Kevin Kiermaier -- 2023 -- 2.8 fWAR

Ichiro only played 322 games in CF during his 19 MLB seasons.

If you're optimistic about Trout in 2025, what are you expecting from him in 2025? 5 fWAR? His big body is unlikely to hold up regularly playing in center field, considering he's already injury prone.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The trend line for Trout in recent years has been pretty clear:

2022: 119 games
2023: 82 games
2024: 29 games

It's reasonable to expect his career to be in jeopardy at this point.


Top-five age-33 seasons from center fielders over the last twenty years (post-steroid era):

1. Ichiro Suzuki -- 2007 -- 6.1 fWAR
2. Mike Cameron -- 2006 -- 4.5 fWAR
3. Torii Hunter -- 2009 -- 3.8 fWAR
4. Coco Crisp -- 2013 -- 3.7 fWAR
5. Kevin Kiermaier -- 2023 -- 2.8 fWAR

Ichiro only played 322 games in CF during his 19 MLB seasons.

If you're optimistic about Trout in 2025, what are you expecting from him in 2025? 5 fWAR? His big body is unlikely to hold up regularly playing in center field, considering he's already injury prone.

Trout's WAR numbers have been 100% due to number of games played. His WAR per game is still off the charts. So while it's a big if for him to play 140+ games, if he does, it's reasonable to expect way more than 5 WAR.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Trout's WAR numbers have been 100% due to number of games played. His WAR per game is still off the charts. So while it's a big if for him to play 140+ games, if he does, it's reasonable to expect way more than 5 WAR.

His hitting dropped off the last couple of years:

2022: .999 OPS
2023: .858 OPS
2024: .867 OPS

Career: .991 OPS

Combine his last two seasons, and his WAR has dropped off, too:

2012-2022: 9.7 162-game-average bWAR
2023-2024: 5.7 162-game-average bWAR

[fabiani12333]

I could see Trout putting together a 140-ish-game season, with like 36 HR and 4.8 WAR, playing part-time in the OF and part-time at DH.

I think that's about the most you can hope for at this point.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I could see Trout putting together a 140-ish-game season, with like 36 HR and 4.8 WAR, playing part-time in the OF and part-time at DH.

I think that's about the most you can hope for at this point.

I’ll take it! Much better than a severely shortened Season due to ANOTHER injury.

[kyle1707]

Let’s go trout. Stay healthy for a year

https://www.instagram.com/miketrout/reel/DF0O6TARUsb/

[Rob355]

Look what AI said for #7 when I asked to rank the top 50 baseball players post war. Disappointed Pete and Jose were left off.

Rank Player Rookie Year
1 Willie Mays 1951
2 Barry Bonds 1986
3 Hank Aaron 1954
4 Ted Williams 1939*
5 Mickey Mantle 1951
6 Stan Musial 1941*
7 Mike Trout 2011
8 Greg Maddux 1986
9 Roger Clemens 1984
10 Randy Johnson 1988
11 Roberto Clemente 1955
12 Pedro Martínez 1992
13 Frank Robinson 1956
14 Ken Griffey Jr. 1989
15 Albert Pujols 2001
16 Tom Seaver 1967
17 Clayton Kershaw 2008
18 Derek Jeter 1995
19 Nolan Ryan 1966
20 Alex Rodriguez 1994
21 Yogi Berra 1946
22 Johnny Bench 1967
23 Rickey Henderson 1979
24 Bob Gibson 1959
25 Ichiro Suzuki 2001
26 Mariano Rivera 1995
27 Carl Yastrzemski 1961
28 Hank Greenberg 1930*
29 Ernie Banks 1953
30 Chipper Jones 1993
31 Steve Carlton 1965
32 Frank Thomas 1990
33 Miguel Cabrera 2003
34 Joe Morgan 1963
35 Eddie Mathews 1952
36 Jim Palmer 1965
37 Adrian Beltre 1998
38 George Brett 1973
39 Rod Carew 1967
40 Reggie Jackson 1967
41 Ozzie Smith 1978
42 Roy Halladay 1998
43 Robin Yount 1974
44 Albert Belle 1989
45 Paul Molitor 1978
46 Tony Gwynn 1982
47 David Ortiz 1997
48 Manny Ramirez 1993
49 Bryce Harper 2012
50 Shohei Ohtani 2018

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Let’s go trout. Stay healthy for a year

https://www.instagram.com/miketrout/reel/DF0O6TARUsb/

It's his Rocky-style montage video. This is Trout's fifth sequel, and this time it's personal.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Rob355

Look what AI said for #7 when I asked to rank the top 50 baseball players post war. Disappointed Pete and Jose were left off.

Rank Player Rookie Year
1 Willie Mays 1951
2 Barry Bonds 1986
3 Hank Aaron 1954
4 Ted Williams 1939*
5 Mickey Mantle 1951
6 Stan Musial 1941*
7 Mike Trout 2011
8 Greg Maddux 1986
9 Roger Clemens 1984
10 Randy Johnson 1988
11 Roberto Clemente 1955
12 Pedro Martínez 1992
13 Frank Robinson 1956
14 Ken Griffey Jr. 1989
15 Albert Pujols 2001
16 Tom Seaver 1967
17 Clayton Kershaw 2008
18 Derek Jeter 1995
19 Nolan Ryan 1966
20 Alex Rodriguez 1994
21 Yogi Berra 1946
22 Johnny Bench 1967
23 Rickey Henderson 1979
24 Bob Gibson 1959
25 Ichiro Suzuki 2001
26 Mariano Rivera 1995
27 Carl Yastrzemski 1961
28 Hank Greenberg 1930*
29 Ernie Banks 1953
30 Chipper Jones 1993
31 Steve Carlton 1965
32 Frank Thomas 1990
33 Miguel Cabrera 2003
34 Joe Morgan 1963
35 Eddie Mathews 1952
36 Jim Palmer 1965
37 Adrian Beltre 1998
38 George Brett 1973
39 Rod Carew 1967
40 Reggie Jackson 1967
41 Ozzie Smith 1978
42 Roy Halladay 1998
43 Robin Yount 1974
44 Albert Belle 1989
45 Paul Molitor 1978
46 Tony Gwynn 1982
47 David Ortiz 1997
48 Manny Ramirez 1993
49 Bryce Harper 2012
50 Shohei Ohtani 2018

In terms of peak performance, Trout is probably in the top 10. But Arod being only 20th is a joke. Pujols being only 15th is probably a joke as well.

[JWBlue]

They are moving him to a corner outfield spot.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Let’s go trout. Stay healthy for a year

https://www.instagram.com/miketrout/reel/DF0O6TARUsb/

Did he slip a disc in his back?

[Rob355]

FYI going back to first post end of 2023 #175 was about $980 and ended the year about $800, so a 15-20% decline in 2024. The poll got it right.

However, so far first 6 weeks of 2025 comps are back up to $900 or so.

[49ersSF]

The one thing that created the mythical Trout is WAR. Every conversation about Trout over the years begins and ends with WAR. It is nearly his entire identity with exception to his MVPs which were obtained because of his WAR. Other than that, he has no other major accomplishments.

Now that he has finally been moved out of centerfield he will no longer receive the ridiculous WAR boost he has been accustomed to. In addition, he is 33 coming off four consecutive injury plagued seasons. Superstars such as Griffey, F. Thomas, Pujols, Cabrera, and many others saw a massive drop off in their statistics post age 32 which Trout should see as well.

With that all said, it would be very unwise to invest in Trout as he has not yet bottomed out. Any investment now is most likely going to lose especially if you are buying during the pre-season hype.

[ThoseBackPages]

nobody hates Trout more than BO members

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

nobody hates Trout more than BO members

Nobody really cares about Trout anymore outside of the hobby. The baseball world has pretty much moved on to players like Ohtani, Jusdge, etc.

The only people holding on to Trout these days are collectors who bought in to Trout during his peak years and are clinging to the hope that he will return so his prices will shoot back up and then they can sell.

You have spent 10+ years on here pumping Trout. I would not be surprised if there are over a thousand "one line" posts from you over that span simply saying things like...

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

its a great time to pick up his cards if you were priced out before

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Nobody really cares about Trout anymore outside of the hobby. The baseball world has pretty much moved on to players like Ohtani, Jusdge, etc.

The only people holding on to Trout these days are collectors who bought in to Trout during his peak years and are clinging to the hope that he will return so his prices will shoot back up and then they can sell.

You have spent 10+ years on here pumping Trout. I would not be surprised if there are over a thousand "one line" posts from you over that span simply saying things like...

you dont sound like a collector. this part of the message boards is about cards.
thats what we talk about here. i dont care about what the people outside of cards think about Trout.

i know you hate Trout, just cant figure out why.
maybe it was you that "bought high" and were "burned". if so, i hear you.

i bought most of my Trout cards going on 10+ years ago. i dont think my US175 PSA 10 that the $50 going rate at the time is going to break me

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

you dont sound like a collector. this part of the message boards is about cards.
thats what we talk about here. i dont care about what the people outside of cards think about Trout.

i know you hate Trout, just cant figure out why.
maybe it was you that "bought high" and were "burned". if so, i hear you.

i bought most of my Trout cards going on 10+ years ago. i dont think my US175 PSA 10 that the $50 going rate at the time is going to break me

You have to factor in both when looking at "investment potential". The fact is that what Trout does on the field affects his investment potential. To ignore it or act as if it does not matter would be living in ignorance.

I am a collector. I still have some solid Trout cards but thankfully got rid of my most valuable Trout cards while they were still at a high. The higher-end stuff was all low # autos most of which were purchased in collections I bought 10+ years ago. The investment in those cards was minimal as well.

I will add this to give some positive investment potential on Trout. Miggy, Pujols, F. Thomas, and Griffey each had one or two solid HR years left after age 32. If Trout can stay healthy, he might be able to pull off a .250ish BA with 35 home runs season which will inch him closer to that magical 500 home run mark. The 500 home run mark is the only thing left for Trout investment potential.

I have no hate for Mike Trout. In this thread, it all comes down to "investment potential" and I am simply pointing out the obvious. His potential is rather limited given his age, injury history, position move affecting his WAR, heavy fan interest decline, and doubt that he will achieve any of those milestones he was expected to reach during his peak "investment potential" years.

[ThoseBackPages]

on that we agree.... cards are for collecting not investing
i would never recommend investing in cards.

glad to hear you were able to hold on to some!

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

on that we agree.... cards are for collecting not investing !

They are actually both. The investment side might not be advisable due to risk, but it does exist as does the collecting side.

[Hollywood42]

Some people seem to find it so hard to appreciate some of the greats of all time when they're right in front of their face, and that's sad

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Nobody really cares about Trout anymore outside of the hobby. The baseball world has pretty much moved on to players like Ohtani, Jusdge, etc.

The only people holding on to Trout these days are collectors who bought in to Trout during his peak years and are clinging to the hope that he will return so his prices will shoot back up and then they can sell.

You have spent 10+ years on here pumping Trout. I would not be surprised if there are over a thousand "one line" posts from you over that span simply saying things like...

Not everyone is like this.

I bought in at the ground floor and still have some nice Trouts. Some people actually like to collect and aren't just flippers.

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

The one thing that created the mythical Trout is WAR. Every conversation about Trout over the years begins and ends with WAR. It is nearly his entire identity with exception to his MVPs which were obtained because of his WAR. Other than that, he has no other major accomplishments.

Now that he has finally been moved out of centerfield he will no longer receive the ridiculous WAR boost he has been accustomed to. In addition, he is 33 coming off four consecutive injury plagued seasons. Superstars such as Griffey, F. Thomas, Pujols, Cabrera, and many others saw a massive drop off in their statistics post age 32 which Trout should see as well.

With that all said, it would be very unwise to invest in Trout as he has not yet bottomed out. Any investment now is most likely going to lose especially if you are buying during the pre-season hype.

Sure is a lot of bolded stats on his BRef page that aren't WAR.

[Rbradleigh]

Resubmitted as a “Review” and not surprised, no upgrade to a 10. I’m done putting money into this card, regardless that I find it a gem.