Are Base RC's Dead?

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It holds value if Giannis ends up a top 10-15 all time player (not at all out of the question if he can get some titles)

That number you just gave is very much in line with LeBron, and half of the number of PSA 10 Luka Prizm base alone.

A coworker of mine who collected while he was young is getting back into collecting through Collectable. He's not an expert, so to get back in, he threw his money into the most recognizable thing he could... a LeBron Black Ref. Now, in the realm of rare LeBron rookies, this card doesn't stand out to me as exceedingly rare or special... it's the most common version of his non-refractor parallels. But it was much easier for him to grasp what the card is then even his Ultimate Collection. There's value in being the 'flagship'.

I could see there being demand for the 9000 of these cards... I can't see their being anyone fighting to get them. You need demand to outpace supply for a price increase.

What helps is not all of them are on the market at the same time...

I'll say this, after watching the recent correction, long term I'm short base RC's and outside of flipping them, I will be removing all from my long term holds.

My personal collection is Kobe and hockey from the 90's and I only keep BGS 6's or 7's for my PC. I assign 0 value to them outside of the enjoyment I get from looking at them a few times a month.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by dkcardman

Totally agree. 99% of this bubble concern is on the player. Luka is down because he looks a long way from the MVP people had bagged him for this year. Same with Giannis. Zion has been steady but they have no shot this year so why would he go up significantly. Curry is on fire on the court and so are his cards. Look at MPJ all the sudden!
One issue is that the major players this year are Embid and Jokic. Awesome players but boring bigs when it comes to hobby appeal. It's kind of a blah season so far, and it's kind of a blah market. But what I see is it's just waiting for a player to take the reigns and it's ready to explode for whomever that is.

And to me, this looks like opportunity.

It's less about what's happening right now, and more about what's going to happen next.

One of the buy ROI buys I ever took a part of was picking up AD's left and right late in his stint with the Pels. Collectors didn't like the fact he was being benched, and there was 0% chance that the Pels would win a title that year.

Prices reflected that and I bought an NT RPA, Gem Mint Prizm Silver, and about 15-20 Prizm base for ~$30 each raw, up to $100 for PSA 10s.

It was easy money a year later. I get that prices are different now, but there are younger guys playing very well right now who compare favorably more experienced players fetching 3, 4 or 5x what they are. But since the overall market is souring on what is essentially 'prospecting', there are deals to be had. For me, that means trying to pick up some base and silver for an easy 2-3x flip along the way, while the real prizes I'm chasing are the truly rare items that explode if these guys pan out.

[Kobe101]

Originally Posted by tjforce

And to me, this looks like opportunity.

It's less about what's happening right now, and more about what's going to happen next.

One of the buy ROI buys I ever took a part of was picking up AD's left and right late in his stint with the Pels. Collectors didn't like the fact he was being benched, and there was 0% chance that the Pels would win a title that year.

Prices reflected that and I bought an NT RPA, Gem Mint Prizm Silver, and about 15-20 Prizm base for ~$30 each raw, up to $100 for PSA 10s.

It was easy money a year later. I get that prices are different now, but there are younger guys playing very well right now who compare favorably more experienced players fetching 3, 4 or 5x what they are. But since the overall market is souring on what is essentially 'prospecting', there are deals to be had. For me, that means trying to pick up some base and silver for an easy 2-3x flip along the way, while the real prizes I'm chasing are the truly rare items that explode if these guys pan out.

I remember that. It is interesting how much smarter the market is now. It was pretty obvious he was going to be traded to the Lakers. I had a plan to buy 2 Prizm 10s a month. I only ended up buying 4 and sold early but still easy money.

[Bob824]

If I may...

Bass = low singing voice or low part of the musical range, also freshwater fish (but pronounced differently)

BASE = a conceptual structure or entity on which something draws or depends; for our purposes, the ONLY Rookie Cards (according to Beckett and hobby consensus)

No one collects low singing voice or fish (bass) rookie cards, but some high-rolling folks think (base) rookie cards are the lowest form of collecting.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Bob824

If I may...

Bass = low singing voice or low part of the musical range, also freshwater fish (but pronounced differently)

BASE = a conceptual structure or entity on which something draws or depends; for our purposes, the ONLY Rookie Cards (according to Beckett and hobby consensus)

No one collects low singing voice or fish (bass) rookie cards, but some high-rolling folks think (base) rookie cards are the lowest form of collecting.

You need to follow more invester-boiz IG accounts.

Lots of bass flipping!

[mc1]

Originally Posted by Bob824

No one collects low singing voice or fish (bass) rookie cards, but some high-rolling folks think (base) rookie cards are the lowest form of collecting.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Kobe101

I remember that. It is interesting how much smarter the market is now. It was pretty obvious he was going to be traded to the Lakers. I had a plan to buy 2 Prizm 10s a month. I only ended up buying 4 and sold early but still easy money.

I'm not sure that it is that much smarter...

Last summer you could have picked up as many KD Topps rookies as you wanted and made a killing on them. People were too busy buying Ja Morant.

There are opportunities out there right now. The key is, you can't just follow what the masses are doing. Once that happens, you've already missed the boat (like buying LeBron cards post 2019 lol).

But really, find the player, set, etc, that not everyone is talking about and trying to tell you to buy. The smart money isn't putting up instagram stories about the undervalued stuff they are accumulating... this are peddling the crap they already have secured to pass it on like a game of hot potato.

[duron]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'm not sure that it is that much smarter...

Last summer you could have picked up as many KD Topps rookies as you wanted and made a killing on them. People were too busy buying Ja Morant.

There are opportunities out there right now. The key is, you can't just follow what the masses are doing. Once that happens, you've already missed the boat (like buying LeBron cards post 2019 lol).

But really, find the player, set, etc, that not everyone is talking about and trying to tell you to buy. The smart money isn't putting up instagram stories about the undervalued stuff they are accumulating... this are peddling the crap they already have secured to pass it on like a game of hot potato.

Speaking of, it’s such a crappy double-edged sword now. Not too long ago people were proud and happy to discuss lesser known sets and designs and inserts and parallels and insert-parallels. This even included those that were more inclined to flip than collect although they clearly did both. So in that way, as the hobby grows it’s also becoming more insulated.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by duron

Speaking of, it’s such a crappy double-edged sword now. Not too long ago people were proud and happy to discuss lesser known sets and designs and inserts and parallels and insert-parallels. This even included those that were more inclined to flip than collect although they clearly did both. So in that way, as the hobby grows it’s also becoming more insulated.

Yea... it's a part of today's reality. And I participate in it as well, to a degree.

It's not a malicious thing... it's just that if I am really chasing something that not everyone else is, I don't want to cost myself money by gushing about it.

But with most things, I'm a collector at heart, so I'll end up talking about them even if I'm still picking them up. I still need about 50 2016 Donruss Optic Previews, but I don't hide my love for that set at all.

On the other hand, the under the radar guys I'm picking up right now... I'm not ready to share with all but a few people I know and trust not to try to use it against me or anything.

[yiguiri2002]

I have no idea what TJ is collecting but:

Jokic's raw Prizm RCs are about 200.
Embiid's raw Prizm RCs are about 110.
Zion's raw Prizm RCs are about 170.

You are talking about the MVP, another guy making a 1st All-NBA Team at 27 and another one making an All-NBA team at 20.

I don't think he's referring to either of those guys but the point is looking into performance from young players, look at vets with established prices and see where a gap comes up. I'm waiting for the offseason (or even the playoffs) to pick up more Zion, SGA and Giannis as I expect them to drop a bit.

[SupermanBrandon]

CIRCLE

[Arianny_Fan]

Originally Posted by duron

The Junkie Era

yeah, unfortunately they come in all different walks of life apparently.

[ninjacookies]

Smart money's funneling into Prizm head coach rookie bass.


I don't think Hacker's bringing 'em back, so there will always be a finite supply of Quin Snyder and Erik Spoelstra circulating amongst the hedge fund soccer dads.

[lseecon]

methinks the original poster (new sneakerbois) was upset "base" rookies outperformed his "rare" parallels, autos, etc.

[Archangel1775]

The legends will be fine (Kobe, LeBron,Steph). Those outside the Top 15 may not be(KG,Dirk,KD).

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Smart money's funneling into Prizm head coach rookie bass.


I don't think Hacker's bringing 'em back, so there will always be a finite supply of Quin Snyder and Erik Spoelstra circulating amongst the hedge fund soccer dads.

haha. wish we were in an infinite world where this was true

Didn't open a ton, but I def opened a couple hundred worth of retail 17/18 back in the day and didn't hit a single RC silver.. Must have hit at least 5 coach silvers smh.

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

haha. wish we were in an infinite world where this was true

Didn't open a ton, but I def opened a couple hundred worth of retail 17/18 back in the day and didn't hit a single RC silver.. Must have hit at least 5 coach silvers smh.

Same.......I made the same comment, but Eric disagreed with me and said that they were all sheet cut and there were just as many rookie silvers as there were coach silvers. I said, I am not arguing that point, I am just saying that Poopanini short packed them (instead of short printing them as some people were claiming). You can't tell me that Poopy put the same number of silver Jason Tatum rookies in packs as they did Spoelstra coach cards...........


Poopy knows what they are doing............

[bmf]

Scarcity is key. Rare cards of top names will always do well. It’s pretty simple really.

[i4gotmyid]

Originally Posted by bmf

Scarcity is key. Rare cards of top names will always do well. It’s pretty simple really.

Rarity and scarcity are often confused for each other

[FT35]

I collect base rookies. Many do. I think people have lost track of the reality of the situation in what it takes to acquire them. Why have they spiked? Well—it’s one of the most commonly collected things—the base rookies. How do you get them? Packs of course! Next part is key—the packs that are no longer available at MSRP to average collectors.

Say you’re willing to buy wax on the secondary market to try to pull these base rookies. How much are you willing to spend at that chance?! Is the picture becoming more clear now as to why base rookies are establishing some sort of premium? How about slabbed base from an overwhelmed/closed PSA? How about slabbed 9’s and 10’s?

Should I spend $1600 on 4 Prizm blasters trying to pull a Zion? Then if I somehow miraculously do pull one in only 4 blasters, do I send it to PSA on a premium service? How much has that Zion base rookie cost now??? How about comparing that process to picking up a PSA 9 for $250 on eBay and enjoying your card in-hand in 3 days.

THIS is the logic behind the base card boom—not people being dumb. It may be more “how much are people willing to spend to AVOID the “wax to PSA to me” process?”

[bberns]

Originally Posted by FT35

I collect base rookies. Many do. I think people have lost track of the reality of the situation in what it takes to acquire them. Why have they spiked? Well—it’s one of the most commonly collected things—the base rookies. How do you get them? Packs of course! Next part is key—the packs that are no longer available at MSRP to average collectors.

Say you’re willing to buy wax on the secondary market to try to pull these base rookies. How much are you willing to spend at that chance?! Is the picture becoming more clear now as to why base rookies are establishing some sort of premium? How about slabbed base from an overwhelmed/closed PSA? How about slabbed 9’s and 10’s?

Should I spend $1600 on 4 Prizm blasters trying to pull a Zion? Then if I somehow miraculously do pull one in only 4 blasters, do I send it to PSA on a premium service? How much has that Zion base rookie cost now??? How about comparing that process to picking up a PSA 9 for $250 on eBay and enjoying your card in-hand in 3 days.

THIS is the logic behind the base card boom—not people being dumb. It may be more “how much are people willing to spend to AVOID the “wax to PSA to me” process?”

Have you seen the folks on IG with stacks of literally hundreds (or in some cases thousands) of the same base rookie card? That is not what you are describing above.

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by bberns

Have you seen the folks on IG with stacks of literally hundreds (or in some cases thousands) of the same base rookie card? That is not what you are describing above.

Those are the smart folks..........I try to hoard base rookies, too. All it takes is one good game (Anfernee Simons) and it's TO THE MOON!!!!!!!!!

[interestingcool]

Whoops quoted wrong post. Thank you to the guy who made the distinction between BASS and BASE.

[k13]

All the prizm wax was opened cheap.
That's why so much is out there.
No one paid $500 for prizm blasters to open them.

Same with Luka year. All that was opened for literally nothing.

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by k13

All the prizm wax was opened cheap.
That's why so much is out there.
No one paid $500 for prizm blasters to open them.

Same with Luka year. All that was opened for literally nothing.

Are you o.k.? Do you need anything? Should we send an ambulance???