First Buzz: 2021-22 Donruss basketball cards

[bigjbasketball]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I have yet to see one, but small sample size so far. They may not even be one per case.

I just watched Packman open 2 boxes and he hit a Next Day in one of them, so I’m guessing he just got super lucky with that pull.

[phil]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Topps prices its massively popular F1 paper release 4x under what these crook websites were selling for presale.

Panini comes along and lists their much inferior paper product right about at presale prices.

Was a good opportunity to follow Topps' lead and of course missed.

Of course trouble is if Panini followed Topps' lead selling Donruss at a similarly reasonable price at a predetermined time nobody would be able to get through.

The only reason anyone was able to buy F1 on Topps site was because it released at a random unannounced time.

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I have yet to see one, but small sample size so far. They may not even be one per case.

There's a Bassey on ebay. Looks like he drew a X through his auto.

[bigjbasketball]

Originally Posted by smalltown

There's a Bassey on ebay. Looks like he drew a X through his auto.

Wow the seller can’t even get $20 for a Next Day? I know Bassey is one of the least valuable pulls, but I thought that simply having them back after none last year would have drawn more attention, but I guess that doesn’t apply to the lower tier guys.

[auctionjmm]

Another interesting wrinkle I didn't notice this year. There are "true" Gold border Net Marvel press proofs serial #'d /10.

[Spacemanspif]

sold out within minutes

[wxguy44]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

sold out within minutes

jfc lol

[Promethius88]

I'm sorry, I don't care what anyone says, this product is NOT worth $500+ a box to rip. If you get a sealed case at dealer cost, sure. You can most likely sell the singles and come out ahead around release.

All the hype that comes out around Hoops and Donruss... they are pretty much the lowest end of the spectrum and people are being convinced that these are good products cause they toss in some special hit here and there. It's still a crap product. Always has been.

[90skid]

It's funny watching ebay and the crazy prices upon first to market. First Lamelo (true) press-proof gold Marvels was listed for $499 and they took a best offer accepted of $250. Now there's two of them listed for BIN $80 and $88. I wonder how that $250 dude is feeling...

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

I'm sorry, I don't care what anyone says, this product is NOT worth $500+ a box to rip. If you get a sealed case at dealer cost, sure. You can most likely sell the singles and come out ahead around release.

All the hype that comes out around Hoops and Donruss... they are pretty much the lowest end of the spectrum and people are being convinced that these are good products cause they toss in some special hit here and there. It's still a crap product. Always has been.

Yes, it is worth $500/box. I paid $590 and will comfortably come out well ahead on singles. I paid $1,000 last year and came out ahead. Why even comment if you don't know the product?

[oldgoldy97]

Got a Lebron actual press proof Marvels in a GB

[90skid]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Yes, it is worth $500/box.

I see everything you have listed up on ebay, how many cases did you open to get all of that? Kudos to that $250 lamelo sale, you got first to market price! haha

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by 90skid

I see everything you have listed up on ebay, how many cases did you open to get all of that? Kudos to that $250 lamelo sale, you got first to market price! haha

I am through 2 cases and still listing. I have 3 more sealed that will be open tonight/tomorrow.

[t6p]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Yes, it is worth $500/box. I paid $590 and will comfortably come out well ahead on singles. I paid $1,000 last year and came out ahead. Why even comment if you don't know the product?

You obviously open in large quantities and do well with this product. What are your thoughts on paying $500/box for those of us who just want to open a single box and not get slaughtered? I’m genuinely curious as I’ve never been a big fan of paper Donruss but I wouldn’t mind trying a box if the floor is reasonable on these.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by t6p

You obviously open in large quantities and do well with this product. What are your thoughts on paying $500/box for those of us who just want to open a single box and not get slaughtered? I’m genuinely curious as I’ve never been a big fan of paper Donruss but I wouldn’t mind trying a box if the floor is reasonable on these.

The ROI is the same, you're just introducing variance from a smaller sample size. If you open a single box and your Marvels are the 8 worst players, it's like $100 floor. If you get the 8 best players, it's like $400. Then you factor in the base rookies, numbered cards, and auto/mem. Since it's (almost) first pro uniform for a lot of the rookies, you'll actually be able to move them for a few bucks, whereas 6 months from now they're probably just trash

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by t6p

You obviously open in large quantities and do well with this product. What are your thoughts on paying $500/box for those of us who just want to open a single box and not get slaughtered? I’m genuinely curious as I’ve never been a big fan of paper Donruss but I wouldn’t mind trying a box if the floor is reasonable on these.

For a single box, the floor on these is higher than almost any other product.

Guarantees:
50 Rated Rookies (Complete set if perfect collation)
7 Net Marvels
1 Gold Net Marvel
5 "other" Gold inserts
2-3 Purple inserts
1 autograph
1 relic
Approx 20 parallels (press proof or laser)
Approx 30+ regular inserts beyond the Nets.

Could you lose on ONE box? Absolutely. But it won't be a slaughter.

Of course, it also depends how much effort one wants to put into listing cards. Does someone want to put together 100+ listings for a $500 box to maximize return? Some would say no. It's a little different for me cause there are so many duplicates I can do stock photos and keep relisting with one photo. I can also put together full sets of every insert.

Donruss is #1 on my list for a product that has a great floor and really high upside. I'm not a "pumper", just someone who has opened this each of the last 3 years since the format change and have always done well. I share information to help others but if it's not everyone's cup of tea I understand that as well.

[t6p]

Thanks guys. Appreciate the thoughts.

[auctionjmm]

5 CASE BREAKDOWN:

Best RR Autos:
Keon Johnson 1/1
Cade Cunningham /49
Cade Cunningham /99
Scottie Barnes /99
Jalen Green /99
Jalen Suggs /99
Franz Wagner /99
Evan Mobley
Jonathan Kuminga
Ayo Dosunmu

Next Day Autos:
Jalen Green
Franz Wagner
Ziaire Williams
Alperen Sengun
Miles McBride

Significant Non-Auto Color:
Zion Williamson Net Marvels Gold /10
Charles Barkley Net Marvels Gold /10
Jalen Green /75
Scottie Barnes /99
Scottie Barnes /99
Scottie Barnes /99
Jonathan Kuminga /99
Jalen Green /99
Scottie Barnes /149
Jalen Suggs /149
Josh Giddey /149
Cade Cunningham /199

Probably a bunch of stuff I'm forgetting but I tried to get the bigger stuff listed as my friends were pulling them. Really strong break overall. This was one of the more fun breaks I've had.

[detroitbball]

I don't know if this is too much trouble, but if you had a total count of how many of each of the various serial numbered cards you pulled, we could probably make a pretty good estimate of hobby print run.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Yes, it is worth $500/box. I paid $590 and will comfortably come out well ahead on singles. I paid $1,000 last year and came out ahead. Why even comment if you don't know the product?

I would love to see your sales breakdown two weeks from now. LeBron Net Marvels is opening at $20-30 after doing $225 last year. Luka is $20 after doing $150+ last year. I just don’t see how you can guarantee a profit on this at $590.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

I don't know if this is too much trouble, but if you had a total count of how many of each of the various serial numbered cards you pulled, we could probably make a pretty good estimate of hobby print run.

Are the lasers hobby exclusive? I had 8 golds and 28 blue which obviously means there are collation issues (more on that below). That would put the hobby estimate anywhere from 1500-2200 cases. I would think that's about the norm for Donruss? The golds are usually about 1 per case so I kind of figured 2500 cases was normally the max. Not sure if there are ways to manipulate that by moving parallels around to other skus though.

In regards to collation... I hit 5 Next Day autographs. One case had 3, one had 2, and three cases had zero.

I also noticed golds were coming out in groups. I believe 6 of the 8 golds were from a two case stretch.

5 cases is still a small sample size so I'm not sure what can be concluded here but there are definitely a lot of groupings where certain players or parallels are coming together in cases.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I would love to see your sales breakdown two weeks from now. LeBron Net Marvels is opening at $20-30 after doing $225 last year. Luka is $20 after doing $150+ last year. I just don’t see how you can guarantee a profit on this at $590.

It's been awhile since I've had to take the "dummy effect" into a sales projection. You can tell there are a lot of new sellers who don't know the history of the product. Caught a guy last night listing all the Net Marvels around $10 and all the Net Marvel Gold Press Proofs around $15 with free shipping. Tried to message him but it was too late. He never responded. Someone got some amazing deals.

To your point, BINs are getting hit quick on that lower priced stuff so the question is how many copy cats will now list at the lowest sale versus letting the poorly listed cards sell through and pricing accordingly. The good thing about $600/box is I don't think a lot of people are going to be breaking this.

I did about 4.5K last night. Long ways to go obviously but I don't think I've even listed 5% of the product yet. It's going to be quite the marathon.

Back to Net Marvels...the press proofs last year were about 7 per case. I checked my numbers from last year and had 45 from 6 cases. This year they are 1 per box. Also the purples are 5 per case. So that means roughly 8 additional proofs per case, plus the 2 gold border /10's I hit which maybe I beat the odds on that but they are an added value nonetheless. So my thought with the numbers is that the 8 additional proofs will soften the potential blow of lower base sales if the Net Marvels continue to be listed lower.

I do keep a Google sheet and log every sale. I'd be happy to post periodic updates if people are curious, so that's not an issue. I won't be sold out in 2 weeks but I can post updates maybe at 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 6 weeks, and we'll see what happens!

[detroitbball]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Are the lasers hobby exclusive? I had 8 golds and 28 blue which obviously means there are collation issues (more on that below). That would put the hobby estimate anywhere from 1500-2200 cases. I would think that's about the norm for Donruss? The golds are usually about 1 per case so I kind of figured 2500 cases was normally the max. Not sure if there are ways to manipulate that by moving parallels around to other skus though.

In regards to collation... I hit 5 Next Day autographs. One case had 3, one had 2, and three cases had zero.

I also noticed golds were coming out in groups. I believe 6 of the 8 golds were from a two case stretch.

5 cases is still a small sample size so I'm not sure what can be concluded here but there are definitely a lot of groupings where certain players or parallels are coming together in cases.

I "feel" like the red /99 holo lasers are exclusive to hobby. I don't know about /49 blue or the golds. Any idea how many /99 reds you pulled?

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by detroitbball

I "feel" like the red /99 holo lasers are exclusive to hobby. I don't know about /49 blue or the golds. Any idea how many /99 reds you pulled?

The ones from yesterday's cases are still mixed up in piles but based on the first night I had 2x reds as blues. I do remember that. So I'm inclined to go with the 2200 case estimate based on the blue/red distribution.

[detroitbball]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The ones from yesterday's cases are still mixed up in piles but based on the first night I had 2x reds as blues. I do remember that. So I'm inclined to go with the 2200 case estimate based on the blue/red distribution.

That means roughly one red per box. Just looking at boxe breaks on youtube of last years hobby, and the couple that I personally opened, it was at least 2 per box. Feels like a significant print run expansion, which makes sense with the way Panini has been going lately.