calculusdork's 2023 Cy Young Predictor

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

LOL definitely didn't mean no disrespect. Only point being that amongst people who have won at least 2, the vast majority are HOFers or HOF caliber. In that regard, he's in the lower end of the totem pole along wtih Kluber, Lincecum, etc. But Saberhagen was a great pitcher in his own right for sure.

No worries. He’ll be in the Hall one day.

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

Current odds now:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/cy-young/

Cole had another great outing today to further solidfy this stance assuming he remains solid.

NL, it's Snell as the fav followed by Steele and Strider.

He now leads in Win/Loss %, ERA, Games Started, Innings Pitched, batters Faced, ERA+, and WAR.

Tied for 2nd in wins, 3rd in Ks, 4th in Ks/9, and tied for 5th in WHIP.

[calculusdork]

Will try to update this thread at least weekly from now until the end of the season.

2023 NL CY Prediction (as of 9/6/23)
1. Spencer Strider 90.76
2. Justin Steele 86.47 (+1)
3. Blake Snell 85.78 (+1)
4. Zac Gallen 82.98 (-2)

Honorable Mentions: Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Kodai Senga, Freddy Peralta, Merrill Kelly


2023 AL CY Prediction (as of 9/6/23)
1. Gerrit Cole 88.50
2. Luis Castillo 81.95
3. Framber Valdez 81.45 (+2)
4. Pablo Lopez 80.46 (+1)
5. Kevin Gausman 80.20 (-2)


Honorable Mentions: Logan Gilbert, Zach Eflin, George Kirby, Sonny Gray

[calculusdork]

Couple notes on the updates:

(1) If Snell makes it through the LAD/HOU buzzsaw, the Predictor will take note.
(2) Somehow missed Pablo Lopez last week. My bad.

[Hollywood42]

I was going to ask where PabLo was. I'm happier now

[Hollywood42]

Why include the bold? Seems like filler with a good chunk of it (GS, IP, BF) all redundant

Originally Posted by fulltritty

He now leads in Win/Loss %, ERA, Games Started, Innings Pitched, batters Faced, ERA+, and WAR.

Tied for 2nd in wins, 3rd in Ks, 4th in Ks/9, and tied for 5th in WHIP.

[calculusdork]

And finally, a note on the Predictor for those of you who aren't historically familiar:

This tool is nothing more than a multidimensional, weighted least-squares fit into historical data to determine what apparently drives voting trends. It's simply trying to tap into which statistics seem to matter most to voters. The Predictor likes Strider because of his high fWAR and strikeout totals. The Predictor dislikes Snell because of his low fWAR (driven by high FIP because of all the walks) and, underneath that, what it believes to be an extreme amount of luck (86.3 LOB%, highest in MLB) that will likely normalize with a tough couple of upcoming starts.

That is all. Enjoy your day.

[jswest18]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-site...d-projections/

Fangraphs trying to copy you?

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by jswest18

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-site...d-projections/

Fangraphs trying to copy you?

Hacks.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

LOL definitely didn't mean no disrespect. Only point being that amongst people who have won at least 2, the vast majority are HOFers or HOF caliber. In that regard, he's in the lower end of the totem pole along wtih Kluber, Lincecum, etc. But Saberhagen was a great pitcher in his own right for sure.

If Kevin Cash didn't pull him, maybe he leads the Rays to their first World Series title in 2020.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

If Kevin Cash didn't pull him, maybe he leads the Rays to their first World Series title in 2020.

Or he gives up a two run jack to Mookie Betts the next at bat.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by jswest18

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-site...d-projections/

Fangraphs trying to copy you?

Ha ... it's based on the TangoTiger model, which isn't quite as good as calculusdork's official Predictor(TM).

(Tango's enhanced formula has Steele/Strider/Snell in that order.)

[varjakpaul]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

If Kevin Cash didn't pull him, maybe he leads the Rays to their first World Series title in 2020.

**TINFOIL HAT TIME**

I'm a 30% believer in the 2020 World Series conspiracy theory that Snell had to be pulled because the series had to end that night, due to a Covid outbreak among teams (remember the Justin Turner positive reveal late in the broadcast?) and MLB not wanting the negative publicity of shutting down the World Series for X days...which is only slightly reinforced by the fact the 60 game season was that length as it was the most games possible which could be played at the time in order to end the World Series before Election Day 2020 (where many team owners believed the country would tear itself apart and descend into chaos).

**TINFOIL HAT TIME OVER**

[whitmm]

Strider is pitching himself right off the leaderboard

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Strider is pitching himself right off the leaderboard

Not the best 1st inning.

4 ERA Allowed

3.76 ERA now

Only 26 pitches in the first. If he can settle down and Braves get some runs... this start might not end too bad for him.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Strider is pitching himself right off the leaderboard

Indeed

[Ferg1945]

Striders final pitching line.

2.2 IP 6 H 6 R 6 ER 3 BB 5 K 65-35 3.83 ERA

9 combined hits and walks added to WHIP in 2.2 IP - That can't help.

[JWBlue]

– The highest-ERA ever for a CY winner was 3.51, by the Yankees’ Roger Clemens; 20-3, 3.51 in 2001).

[varjakpaul]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

– The highest-ERA ever for a CY winner was 3.51, by the Yankees’ Roger Clemens; 20-3, 3.51 in 2001).

Should've been Mike Mussina's Cy.

[LVDan]

Barring something drastic in both directions this start drops him from T1 to a decently distant third on the LVDan-o- meter
Furthermore I’m pretty skeptical about the start at HOU for Snell.
Steele looking like a better bet by the minute IMO

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Barring something drastic in both directions this start drops him from T1 to a decently distant third on the LVDan-o- meter
Furthermore I’m pretty skeptical about the start at HOU for Snell.
Steele looking like a better bet by the minute IMO

Agree 100%

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Furthermore I’m pretty skeptical about the start at HOU for Snell.

And he follows that up with @ LAD his following start.

Quite a gauntlet of teams to face back to back

Back to back games by Gallen essentially took him out.
Back to back games by Strider possibly takes him out.
Could back to back games for Snell take him out?

Steele scheduled starts (based on current rotation) ARI, @ARI, PIT and @ATL

[Ferg1945]

Fan Duel has the AL & NL CY as a 2 person race right now

NL
Snell -195
Steele +165
Strider +1500
Gallen +6000

AL
Cole -350
Castillo +500
Gausman +1700
Gray +1700

AL is Coles to lose

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

NL
Snell -195
Steele +165
Strider +1500
Gallen +6000

Yeah, my Predictor is going to get this wrong. We've never had a guy (as far as I can remember) with a high ERA and otherwise impressive stats.

W - 1st
K - 1st
WHIP - 3rd
FIP - 1st
ERA - .... 13th

I probably should (or already should have) insert an ERA+ penalty. You can't win the CY with an ERA+ of 119 when the leader is at 178.

[SupermanBrandon]

Strider threw himself out of it last night that very poor performance