First Buzz: 2024 Bowman Chrome baseball cards

[clocsta2323]

I can't believe this works, still or ever. It's embarrassing how bottom rung dumb and easily manipulated we are as consumers of sports cards. All the power to fanatics this demo is lemmings and sheep. The guffawing must be endless in their offices. "We can get away with literally anything they dont care enough to do anything more than whine on message board"

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Soon to be released least-fanfare bowman chrome product in years, fading away in page 2 during release week.

Alas!

$100k Gehrig superfractor bounty announced.

Sealed prices increase 20% instantaneously.

[msucollector4]

Topps needs to figure out how to make BC more appealing.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

That's Bowman Draft you're thinking of. Won't be out till either Nov or Dec.

Ah, thanks

[mikejones]

Man, I don't even think if this is worth buying if I can get it today. First on ebay always helps but can't pull the trigger on 1 box. Haha.

[rwperu34]

A Word Of Caution

One of our main themes is how overpriced the singles are at release relative to older products. I now have some data on this topic. These are the guys I followed from last year's Bowman Chrome. I had a pretty short list because of the high release prices for prospects relative even to that year's Bowman. Numbers are rounded heavily. Here's how bad it was;

Rayner Arias, down 50%-Was injured to start the year, then didn't play great when he was in there. Frankly, given what you're about to see below, I'm surprised he's only down this much.

Joendry Vargas, down 50% or more-Didn't get the bump to full season ball, but hit .303/.406/.493. This one went as well as could have been reasonably expected

Alfredo Duno, down 70%-Was off to a solid start for an 18 year old in A-ball, then got injured.

Brando Mayea, down 80%-An ISO of .040 is going to sting. This was a losing bet no matter the year the card was released, but being a new release threw gas on the fire.

Welbyn Francisca, up 10%-This is the most damning of all. He hit .327/.411/.474 including getting the bump and performing in A-ball, far exceeding expectation...for a measly 10% gain.

I don't remember when BC released last year, but I'm pretty sure this isn't even release week pricing. It was probably a few weeks after. According to my spreadsheet, prices from last year were taken on "10/XX".

Other guys I have notes on from January didn't do any better.

Lastly, it's too bad that Sebastian Walcott didn't have an auto. He has rocketed up the prospect list and will likely be top 5 overall on my list. Would have loved to have a starting point from last October. Looking at his non-auto /499 it looks like there is little to no price appreciation from last October (and down from release!).

My conclusion is I am going to ignore this product (for the most part) until next June.

[mikejones]

Did a hta and hobby box if anyone wants to watch.


















Got lucky with getting color autos but this product is not worth the price. Won't be buying anymore. Only bought it to be first on ebay and first on YouTube.

[PuddleMonkey]

I hear wrappers crinkling but I don't hear you talking. Where's the, "BOOM!".

[stryk]

I guess no more Houdini action through the boards? Looks like he has posted breaks Weds morning through fanatics live, but no mentioning on here. I was hoping for a player auction

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

I can't believe this works, still or ever. It's embarrassing how bottom rung dumb and easily manipulated we are as consumers of sports cards. All the power to fanatics this demo is lemmings and sheep. The guffawing must be endless in their offices. "We can get away with literally anything they dont care enough to do anything more than whine on message board"

If I’m Fanatics or a big dealer, I’m offering tiered buybacks to keep product moving. One buyback card isn’t smart. Too long of odds (even if people can’t do the math) and once it’s hit the product is dead.

[msucollector4]

I have a couple prospects im gonna try to snag in this but no wax for me

[VinnyH]

Originally Posted by msucollector4

I have a couple prospects im gonna try to snag in this but no wax for me

I’m gambling on a Megabox case and plan on selling all the base rookie cards as lots here. Somehow I think it’s better than selling base packs for 2-3 dollars. There will be a nice group of rookie logo base, like Chourios, De La Cruz, Merrill, Dominguez, etc. Those base packs have tended to be rookie heavy in previous years.
Vinny

[bd3d86]

I understand the risk, but I can possibly get a case for $3000. Trying to decide if that is even worth it. Who is the “big” prospect everyone is chasing in this. Is there one this time?

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by bd3d86

I understand the risk, but I can possibly get a case for $3000. Trying to decide if that is even worth it. Who is the “big” prospect everyone is chasing in this. Is there one this time?

I think Leo De Vries, but he already has a bunch of stuff (Onyx, Panini, Pulse) so not sure if that will impact or not

[bd3d86]

Originally Posted by smanzari

I think Leo De Vries, but he already has a bunch of stuff (Onyx, Panini, Pulse) so not sure if that will impact or not

Thank you, I appreciate it.

[Boomer0909]

I opened one box at my LCS after swearing I wouldn’t. Hit Perdomo 1st Auto Mini Diamonds /100. Can’t figure if I should unload it or hold it for a while.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Boomer0909

I opened one box at my LCS after swearing I wouldn’t. Hit Perdomo 1st Auto Mini Diamonds /100. Can’t figure if I should unload it or hold it for a while.

Easy answer. Sell immediately.

[Grave252]

Most Bowman products are an immediate sell, but Chrome even more so. Prices will likely never be higher than they are in the next 10 days. I plan to do 1 player break just for fun, but otherwise this product is a pass for me.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

A Word Of Caution

One of our main themes is how overpriced the singles are at release relative to older products. I now have some data on this topic. These are the guys I followed from last year's Bowman Chrome. I had a pretty short list because of the high release prices for prospects relative even to that year's Bowman. Numbers are rounded heavily. Here's how bad it was;

Rayner Arias, down 50%-Was injured to start the year, then didn't play great when he was in there. Frankly, given what you're about to see below, I'm surprised he's only down this much.

Joendry Vargas, down 50% or more-Didn't get the bump to full season ball, but hit .303/.406/.493. This one went as well as could have been reasonably expected

Alfredo Duno, down 70%-Was off to a solid start for an 18 year old in A-ball, then got injured.

Brando Mayea, down 80%-An ISO of .040 is going to sting. This was a losing bet no matter the year the card was released, but being a new release threw gas on the fire.

Welbyn Francisca, up 10%-This is the most damning of all. He hit .327/.411/.474 including getting the bump and performing in A-ball, far exceeding expectation...for a measly 10% gain.

I don't remember when BC released last year, but I'm pretty sure this isn't even release week pricing. It was probably a few weeks after. According to my spreadsheet, prices from last year were taken on "10/XX".

Other guys I have notes on from January didn't do any better.

Lastly, it's too bad that Sebastian Walcott didn't have an auto. He has rocketed up the prospect list and will likely be top 5 overall on my list. Would have loved to have a starting point from last October. Looking at his non-auto /499 it looks like there is little to no price appreciation from last October (and down from release!).

My conclusion is I am going to ignore this product (for the most part) until next June.

Would be interesting if you had done similar work on the 2021 BC class. Cristian Hernandez, Wilman Diaz, Luis Rodriguez, Pedro Pineda...and MANY more guys selling at $50+ for base autos out of the gate. None of the four mentioned have made it above high-A...three whole years later. Bowman Chrome is a lottery ticket at $100 a box, at current prices it's about as bad as it gets.

[eastbayak]

Worth buying a mega box at $37.50 shipped?

[RoyalsCollector]

Love these products but unless one or two hype beasts becomes a HOFer in 25 years it doesn't have a chance of even getting you back to even on the price. Hate that this hobby has become so money centered, but when you're charging me significant percentages of a paycheck for a single box with 60 cards or so in it, it must be.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by RoyalsCollector

Love these products but unless one or two hype beasts becomes a HOFer in 25 years it doesn't have a chance of even getting you back to even on the price. Hate that this hobby has become so money centered, but when you're charging me significant percentages of a paycheck for a single box with 60 cards or so in it, it must be.

We are all paying that HOF price tag on day one of release.

Bowman chrome is no longer how bowman chrome used to be.

Not to mention the $100k bounty for a $1k card if that we are all paying for.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Boomer0909

I opened one box at my LCS after swearing I wouldn’t. Hit Perdomo 1st Auto Mini Diamonds /100. Can’t figure if I should unload it or hold it for a while.

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Easy answer. Sell immediately.

The sooner the better. See below.

Originally Posted by rwperu34

A Word Of Caution

One of our main themes is how overpriced the singles are at release relative to older products. I now have some data on this topic. These are the guys I followed from last year's Bowman Chrome. I had a pretty short list because of the high release prices for prospects relative even to that year's Bowman. Numbers are rounded heavily. Here's how bad it was;

Rayner Arias, down 50%-Was injured to start the year, then didn't play great when he was in there. Frankly, given what you're about to see below, I'm surprised he's only down this much.

Joendry Vargas, down 50% or more-Didn't get the bump to full season ball, but hit .303/.406/.493. This one went as well as could have been reasonably expected

Alfredo Duno, down 70%-Was off to a solid start for an 18 year old in A-ball, then got injured.

Brando Mayea, down 80%-An ISO of .040 is going to sting. This was a losing bet no matter the year the card was released, but being a new release threw gas on the fire.

Welbyn Francisca, up 10%-This is the most damning of all. He hit .327/.411/.474 including getting the bump and performing in A-ball, far exceeding expectation...for a measly 10% gain.

I don't remember when BC released last year, but I'm pretty sure this isn't even release week pricing. It was probably a few weeks after. According to my spreadsheet, prices from last year were taken on "10/XX".

Other guys I have notes on from January didn't do any better.

Lastly, it's too bad that Sebastian Walcott didn't have an auto. He has rocketed up the prospect list and will likely be top 5 overall on my list. Would have loved to have a starting point from last October. Looking at his non-auto /499 it looks like there is little to no price appreciation from last October (and down from release!).

My conclusion is I am going to ignore this product (for the most part) until next June.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by erock28

Would be interesting if you had done similar work on the 2021 BC class. Cristian Hernandez, Wilman Diaz, Luis Rodriguez, Pedro Pineda...and MANY more guys selling at $50+ for base autos out of the gate. None of the four mentioned have made it above high-A...three whole years later. Bowman Chrome is a lottery ticket at $100 a box, at current prices it's about as bad as it gets.

I don't mind cards going down when the players don't perform...which is going to be most of them over the long run. It's Vargas and especially Francisca from last year that is the canary in the coal mine, so to speak. That shows that it is impossible to win buying at release over the long run, even if only buying singles.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I don't mind cards going down when the players don't perform...which is going to be most of them over the long run. It's Vargas and especially Francisca from last year that is the canary in the coal mine, so to speak. That shows that it is impossible to win buying at release over the long run, even if only buying singles.

Even back in 2019 bowman draft, most would argue Adley Rutschman has met his lofty expectations but his autos are going for 50% of what they sold for upon release.

[Cracktoast]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Even back in 2019 bowman draft, most would argue Adley Rutschman has met his lofty expectations but his autos are going for 50% of what they sold for upon release.

Catchers have never really gotten huge hobby love post Rc hype though.


A couple like Molina and McCann have local love but the last Rc Catcher I remember having monster hype was Benito Santiago. Back in 1987 if you hit a Santiago Rc it was like hitting a Aaron or Mantle. He for sure didn't end up in bicycle spokes until years later (lol) .Man how simple and innocent collecting was before the investors and Prospectors took over.