The Official Options Thread

[ajlaxmn]

Previous month data revised lower (again), Russia looking to cut oil exports in SEP, Florida Storm, ADP missed, won't go in with Bias, but if I had to choose between the two I would expect some downside this morning.


Bottom 4450 (4490 - 4480 support)(4460 support), Top 4500 (4530 resistance), Key level 4500

SPY - 448.2 - .5 c, 451.3 p

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Previous month data revised lower (again), Russia looking to cut oil exports in SEP, Florida Storm, ADP missed, won't go in with Bias, but if I had to choose between the two I would expect some downside this morning.


Bottom 4450 (4490 - 4480 support)(4460 support), Top 4500 (4530 resistance), Key level 4500

SPY - 448.2 - .5 c, 451.3 p

You catch that?

I did not catch this as I'm not trading today, couldn't get levels this morning, but I'm following yours.

Very nice trade.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

You catch that?

I did not catch this as I'm not trading today, couldn't get levels this morning, but I'm following yours.

Very nice trade.

I did. little off from my level on SPY, but I got it. Will update later, currently in 4500 calls for a quick scalp maybe off SPX ATR

Still one runner left from the 4500 Calls, have stop loss set into profits. Might slow volume climb up? See what happens when we get to 4520 again. Haha, and stopped out.

[ajlaxmn]

Initially took 4500 Calls a couple minutes after open as SPX was not bouncing 4500 and not breaking through. This initially worked out but then started trending down, this only went to 4499, but I was anticipating a break through as it went from 4507 to 4499, however the second SPX 5m candle did not close below 4500, so I sold too early (error), got into SPX 4500 Puts (bad entry, bad trade), sold shortly after for a $1400 loss as this entry was not good. This was more of an anticipated move rather than confirming. SPX held around 4500 for a couple candles. SPX was pushing up so I started looking at entry into SPX with SPY coming up to my 451.3 reject area. Took 4515 Puts at rejection of 451.3, SPY started pushing above 451.3 and SPX started moving up to 4520, so I cut my position and got into 4515 Calls. SPY started holding 451.5 and volume on SPY was going down (confirmed on close of 3rd SPY candle), so cut 4515 calls and got into 4515 Puts. Held the 4515 Puts with a target area of 4500, volume on SPY kept confirming selling stepping in. Sold 4515 Puts at 4500. Got into 4500 Calls, sold two contracts at 4506, set a stop loss for last runner that stopped out at 4506. Total $2500 gain on the day after starting the day down $1800 with some bad, impatient trades. Lots of learning today regarding patience, first trade of 4500 Calls was fine, and would have been a good trade, needed to let it marinate a little bit instead of assuming a move past 4500 (didn’t have the momentum to blast through so I should have held position).

[Blazed]

Data dropped this morning and individual stocks look strong.

SPX: 4550 top (break above - 4560 > then a gap @ 4567.53) / 4500 bottom (break below - 4482/80) / 4520 key level - need to hold this level for continuation to the upside. Also a gap @ 4521.65


Watching:

SPY - 451.06 bounce 453.65 reject. Also watching for an uptrend entry if we don't get a bounce.

No bias though, take what it gives. Don't rush or force anything. Be patient and give the trade time to play out.

[Blazed]

In calls stop is below 4519.84, first pt is 4527.56 then 4540.34




----------------------------------------------------------------------

Added 8:41

Got first trim off 4527. Stop is a close below 4519.8






----------------------------------------------------------------


Added 8:49

Trimmed again on the push up. to 4528 then rejected. Went back and tested 4519.8 and added to my calls position as support held




This is why I was watching that level - supertrend





-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Added 8:58


Trimmed @ 4530 still have half my new position. Want 4540 now.

we closed above so going to keep my stops the same






-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added 10:03


Cut here in profits. APPL screwed up the play, couldn't hold the level and we're struggling @ 4530 - Individual stocks don't seem to have enough strength.


That's how you trim and add to winning positions at support.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

In calls stop is below 4519.84, first pt is 4527.56 then 4540.34




----------------------------------------------------------------------

Added 8:41

Got first trim off 4527. Stop is a close below 4519.8






----------------------------------------------------------------


Added 8:49

Trimmed again on the push up. to 4528 then rejected. Went back and tested 4519.8 and added to my calls position as support held




This is why I was watching that level - supertrend





-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Added 8:58


Trimmed @ 4530 still have half my new position. Want 4540 now.

we closed above so going to keep my stops the same






-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added 10:03


Cut here in profits. APPL screwed up the play, couldn't hold the level and we're struggling @ 4530 - Individual stocks don't seem to have enough strength.


That's how you trim and add to winning positions at support.

I have started to use the supertrend on tradingview for S/R and for entering and exiting. Nice little extra tool. Think I used it yesterday to monitor my exit for the trades I was in.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I have started to use the supertrend on tradingview for S/R and for entering and exiting. Nice little extra tool. Think I used it yesterday to monitor my exit for the trades I was in.

Yeah, it works great on slow grind days like today. Higher probability of a reject (or bounce) when moving slow and higher probability of a break though with momentum. That one extra confirmation is the difference between a great trade or a trade going red because you missed it.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Yeah, it works great on slow grind days like today. Higher probability of a reject (or bounce) when moving slow and higher probability of a break though with momentum. That one extra confirmation is the difference between a great trade or a trade going red because you missed it.

Just got home and checked my trading view, my super trend was actually not the same as yours, mind showed super trend below. It's not the one you showed me via PM, so weird that mine was so off. My super trend is from that strategy I had found on YouTube from a couple weeks back. Might go back to the super trend indicator you use on trading view as obviously this one missed.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Just got home and checked my trading view, my super trend was actually not the same as yours, mind showed super trend below. It's not the one you showed me via PM, so weird that mine was so off. My super trend is from that strategy I had found on YouTube from a couple weeks back. Might go back to the super trend indicator you use on trading view as obviously this one missed.

Below? Were you on the 15 min time frame? The inputs could also be different too depending on which version of supertrend you use.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Below? Were you on the 15 min time frame? The inputs could also be different too depending on which version of supertrend you use.

No, I was on the five minute time frame. But it was a different indicator than the one you had shown me before, so I’m positive the inputs were different. It has worked in the past before just not this time. No big deal. I still have the other one say that you had showed me maybe I’ll switch back to that and see how that one works. I just hadn’t switched from the one I was trying when I was using a different method on trading view.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blazed]

US Labor Aug Nonfarm Payrolls +187K; Consensus +170K
US Aug Unemployment Rate 3.8%; Consensus 3.5%

Data dropped and market pumped. More jobs added, but also more unemployment so kind of getting mixed signals here.


SPX: 4570 top (gap @ 4567.53) / 4500 bottom (break below - 4495/90) / 4530 key level (4550 resistance)


Watching:

Obviously not today, but watching for APPL to get back up to $200 area and I will sell some covered calls. I will also grab puts 8mos - a year out

I'll also be watching to do the same with TSLA @ $300 area



Monday is a holiday, don't take an unnecessary L today. Be patient don't force anything and wait for levels to hit.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

US Labor Aug Nonfarm Payrolls +187K; Consensus +170K
US Aug Unemployment Rate 3.8%; Consensus 3.5%

Data dropped and market pumped. More jobs added, but also more unemployment so kind of getting mixed signals here.


SPX: 4570 top (gap @ 4567.53) / 4500 bottom (break below - 4495/90) / 4530 key level (4550 resistance)


Watching:

Obviously not today, but watching for APPL to get back up to $200 area and I will sell some covered calls. I will also grab puts 8mos - a year out

I'll also be watching to do the same with TSLA @ $300 area



Monday is a holiday, don't take an unnecessary L today. Be patient don't force anything and wait for levels to hit.

Trade recap:

4530 key level✅
4500 bottom✅

Great start to September. Closed out my position here. Family time and going to enjoy the long weekend. Hope everyone else enjoys the long weekend, it's a good time to get in some screen time and practice charting levels out. September is traditionally a good month to trade. So I'm looking forward to it.







What I saw and watched.

Grabbed SPX 4540 puts (PM high on SPY) with volume confirming selling pressure. At the same time flow went from sideways to buying before finally selling hard. Added to my position when we pushed up and lost momentum.

Reason I exited out of my position @ 4502 is supertrend was right near strong support @ 4500 making it a high probability we bounce.




And we bounced.




After you enter, make sure you trim along the way. I trim at levels unless we just completely blow past them.




Hopefully everyone is learning something new that they can use for their trading style.

Trading is only difficult if you make it difficult.

[ajlaxmn]

Will follow today, can't track/post much. Need to get back on track. Short little holiday, need to get back into it.

[Blazed]

Lets see if the momentum can continue or if we lose steam. All daily signals point to bearish, so I'd like to see a nice dip this week but I'll take what the market gives either way.


SPX: 4550 top / 4460 bottom / 4500 key level. (4495/90 > 4475 support) (4525/30 resistance)


Watching:


SPY - bounces @ 448.92 (Higher risk) > 447.8 (higher probability) and a reject @ 452.3 (HR) > 453.38 (HP)

SPY is right in the middle. If we can break above last close I'll be in calls.

TSLA - Looking for a bounce between 240.5 - 238.8 if we can get down there. Then looking for a reject @ 1hr 21 EMA



Be patient, wait for setups and don't take trades on weak signals. Only A++ with multiple confirmations.

[Blazed]

Slow day so far, nothing yet. Watching 4498 on SPX. 5 min close below I'll be in puts.


-------------------------------

Added: 9:00

Not in yet. Didn't close below.


------------------------------

Added: 9:09


This is why you be patient and wait for entries. Don't go short above support.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Slow day so far, nothing yet. Watching 4498 on SPX. 5 min close below I'll be in puts.


-------------------------------

Added: 9:00

Not in yet. Didn't close below.


------------------------------

Added: 9:09


This is why you be patient and wait for entries. Don't go short above support.

No Puts at 4505 because 4500 is strong support and the R/R wasn't there?

Did you consider a light position?

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

No Puts at 4505 because 4500 is strong support and the R/R wasn't there?

Did you consider a light position?

R/R was there. But R multiple wasn't. Too small of a move on SPX, if I wanted to take that play I would have went with SPY and got about 100 contracts.

Nothing yet. Only trades I'll take is a 5 min close below 4498 or a close above 4507.5 - which we're about to hit 4507.5 so I'll see what we do there

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

R/R was there. But R multiple wasn't. Too small of a move on SPX, if I wanted to take that play I would have went with SPY and got about 100 contracts.

Nothing yet. Only trades I'll take is a 5 min close below 4498 or a close above 4507.5 - which we're about to hit 4507.5 so I'll see what we do there

Next resistance above this is 4514.17. Will look to see if we get a good close above 4507.57 on the 5 min. Spy has now broken above its support of 450. If we reject here we are in a range and I'll call it a day and won't trade until I see new levels.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Next resistance above this is 4514.17. Will look to see if we get a good close above 4507.57 on the 5 min. Spy has now broken above its support of 450. If we reject here we are in a range and I'll call it a day and won't trade until I see new levels.

Will look to see if we get a good close above 4507.57 on the 5 min✅

Next resistance above this is 4514.17✅


Trimmed half here.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Will look to see if we get a good close above 4507.57 on the 5 min✅

Next resistance above this is 4514.17✅


Trimmed half here.

All out on the 4514 reject. Calling it a day here hopefully tomorrow has a better range.




What I saw

If you missed the call entry you could have grabbed puts up there @ 4514.

You don't have to catch every single play. I could have done a lot of scalping this morning or I could have switched to puts @ 4514, instead I just waited for a setup I liked and took it when the level hit.

[Blazed]

News drops today @ 9:45e - S&P Final U.S. Services PMI


SPX: 4530 top (4507 > 4515 resistance) / 4450 bottom / 4500 key level. (4495/90 resistance > 4475/70 support)


Watching:

SPY - 447.5 (hr) > 446.4 (hp) for a bounce and a reject @ 450

ROKU (hr) - bounce 84-85 area for for calls. If we don't bounce the 84-85 area, then needs to hold 90. ROKU pumped off news they're cutting 10% of workforce.

Yesterday at close I entered some XOM leaps due to the oil situation, just a small position. Something to keep an eye on. Things should get interesting going into the EOY.

[ajlaxmn]

Bottom 4450 (4475 support), Top 4550 (4520-25 resistance), Key level 4500

SPY Calls 447.7-.9, 446.3-.5
SPY Puts 450.9, 453.11

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

News drops today @ 9:45e - S&P Final U.S. Services PMI


SPX: 4530 top (4507 > 4515 resistance) / 4450 bottom / 4500 key level. (4495/90 resistance > 4475/70 support)


Watching:

SPY - 447.5 (hr) > 446.4 (hp) for a bounce and a reject @ 450

ROKU (hr) - bounce 84-85 area for for calls. If we don't bounce the 84-85 area, then needs to hold 90. ROKU pumped off news they're cutting 10% of workforce.

Yesterday at close I entered some XOM leaps due to the oil situation, just a small position. Something to keep an eye on. Things should get interesting going into the EOY.

Nothing yet. No clear direction and not going to get chopped up. Want to see 446.4 - .7 area for entry.

Data in 2 mins.


------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added: 9:05

Not taking this yet. Volume shows we might continue down. Trend is red - don't fight the trend. Just watching.




------------------------------------------------------------

Added 9:15

Holding 4470 good. In calls. Stop below 4465

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Nothing yet. No clear direction and not going to get chopped up. Want to see 446.4 - .7 area for entry.

Data in 2 mins.


------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added: 9:05

Not taking this yet. Volume shows we might continue down. Trend is red - don't fight the trend. Just watching.

Took 4485 Puts, kept holding as SPX couldn't get past 4485, out of all contracts now at 4470, watching for reentry.