NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

The fair market is the ultimate authority which is what we see after all the pack pulled moments are flushed out.

I don't know how this is so hard for you guys to understand. If pack prices were above expected value do you think we still see these fire sales? No chance.

Not according to you it's not. If the fair market was truly the authority they wouldn't have to limit it.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Not according to you it's not. If the fair market was truly the authority they wouldn't have to limit it.

Eh, you guys aren't grasping the point here.

There was always limits on this market whether they limited it or not. Their ability to handle the traffic was always a limitation.

It took me over an hour of pressing refresh and having failed transactions to buy one moment. Does that sound like a fair market to you?

[Eckstein197]

Picked up some nice moments for my collection

Tatum 6k/35k, love this assist

McCollum S1 Dunk 1508/3999, feels way too low for a star S1. I think this one has great potential

Dort 14k/35k, love me some Dort, the Dorture Chamber

Hayward 5.9k/12k, I think there's a lot of value with his first main moment here that's a non legendary

Hunter 15k/35k, I like Hunter as a player so this one is a nice add to the collection

Sitting with 120ish in dapper, looking to add a Capela S2 /12K once I'm able to buy next, then I think I'll be good with buying for now. Might add a cheap Embiid /35k if I like the price

[val47]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Picked up some nice moments for my collection

Tatum 6k/35k, love this assist

McCollum S1 Dunk 1508/3999, feels way too low for a star S1. I think this one has great potential

Dort 14k/35k, love me some Dort, the Dorture Chamber

Hayward 5.9k/12k, I think there's a lot of value with his first main moment here that's a non legendary

Hunter 15k/35k, I like Hunter as a player so this one is a nice add to the collection

Sitting with 120ish in dapper, looking to add a Capela S2 /12K once I'm able to buy next, then I think I'll be good with buying for now. Might add a cheap Embiid /35k if I like the price

i want to get some more moments but i don't want to run out of funds before the new drop comes

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

It creates a temporary race to the bottom and then the market takes off because exactly what I said happens ends up happening.

There is no assuming, it is a fact that a % of pack buyers don't know what they are doing, all they know is packs equal free money. The % of pack buyers that represent that is up for debate but I think it is pretty significant.

Giving people 100%+ returns right off the bat is what leads to downward manipulation. They are happy taking whatever they can get. They don't care what it is actually worth. Then enough actual buyers come in and hold on to it and it starts to take off.

This just isn't true at all. Being an informed seller doesn't require anything more than clicking the price helper button in order to see current market pricing. They're not uninformed just because they don't share your bullishness about this market long-term.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

This just isn't true at all. Being an informed seller doesn't require anything more than clicking the price helper button in order to see current market pricing. They're not uninformed just because they don't share your bullishness about this market long-term.

In a fair market you are correct. But again this isn't a fair market. You are giving out $14 packs that have $200+ value in them. These sellers don't care what the price is, they just want to get their profit. They will sell it at the lowest price no matter what the lowest price is. That is not an informed seller. If it was a fair market you can assume that the lowest price likely is the fair value but when you give out 10,000 of a moment all at once and X% of people don't know anything about it they just want their profit. That leads to manipulated selling pressure.

Again if these $14 packs were $300 instead do you think we see the same thing happen?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

In a fair market you are correct. But again this isn't a fair market. You are giving out $14 packs that have $200+ value in them. These sellers don't care what the price is, they just want to get their profit. They will sell it at the lowest price no matter what the lowest price is. That is not an informed seller. If it was a fair market you can assume that the lowest price likely is the fair value but when you give out 10,000 of a moment all at once and X% of people don't know anything about it they just want their profit. That leads to manipulated selling pressure.

Again if these $14 packs were $300 instead do you think we see the same thing happen?

So you agree that fair market value is far less than it currently is?

Because ultimately to be sustainable it needs to be a fair and open market.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

So you agree that fair market value is far less than it currently is?

Because ultimately to be sustainable it needs to be a fair and open market.

I have no idea what the fair market value ends up being. All I am saying is what we are seeing now isn't it. What we saw before these limitations isn't it and what we see after pack drops also isn't it.

If you go back to my first post on this I will say it again. The fair market value to me comes after pack pulled moments have been flushed through the market and I'll add that it would require there to be no limitations (including technical limitations)

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

In a fair market you are correct. But again this isn't a fair market. You are giving out $14 packs that have $200+ value in them. These sellers don't care what the price is, they just want to get their profit. They will sell it at the lowest price no matter what the lowest price is. That is not an informed seller. If it was a fair market you can assume that the lowest price likely is the fair value but when you give out 10,000 of a moment all at once and X% of people don't know anything about it they just want their profit. That leads to manipulated selling pressure.

Again if these $14 packs were $300 instead do you think we see the same thing happen?

You're making an assumption that you can't prove in any meaningful way other than that you disagree with the price that they're willing to sell at on the open market.

You see, what happens in an open market is that when you increase supply of good X by Y, the sellers of good X are suddenly willing to take less in order to sell good X and the buyers of good X are suddenly willing to pay less in order to acquire good X. Really revolutionary stuff.

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I have no idea what the fair market value ends up being. All I am saying is what we are seeing now isn't it. What we saw before these limitations isn't it and what we see after pack drops also isn't it.

If you go back to my first post on this I will say it again. The fair market value to me comes after pack pulled moments have been flushed through the market and I'll add that it would require there to be no limitations (including technical limitations)

Quite literally, the Fair Market Value of Good X is what it is currently selling for on the open market. Whether it recently came from a pack, dropped down from the heavens into someones collection, or any other weird convention you want to tie it to.

Now unfortunately, we no longer have an open market free of restrictions, which has, in my mind, led to an artificial inflation of moment prices. There's really nothing that has meaningfully changed as far as we know since the market was in free fall on Saturday and so I think it's rational to assume that it would continue to do so absent restrictions. If someone wants to make the case that something has changed since then, I'm all ears, but until then I'd tread lightly.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I have no idea what the fair market value ends up being. All I am saying is what we are seeing now isn't it. What we saw before these limitations isn't it and what we see after pack drops also isn't it.

If you go back to my first post on this I will say it again. The fair market value to me comes after pack pulled moments have been flushed through the market and I'll add that it would require there to be no limitations (including technical limitations)

That's fine but I really don't agree with your sentiment that people selling for lower prices means they're uninformed and therefore should be limited.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

You're making an assumption that you can't prove in any meaningful way other than that you disagree with the price that they're willing to sell at on the open market.

You see, what happens in an open market is that when you increase supply of good X by Y, the sellers of good X are suddenly willing to take less in order to sell good X and the buyers of good X are suddenly willing to pay less in order to acquire good X. Really revolutionary stuff.

The assumption that X% of people who buy packs don't actually know the value of the moments? I promise you there is a decent % of pack buyers that don't know anything about NFT's or the NBA . I didn't even know that was something people debated about.

When you give out free money, everyone and their mom is going to be interested.

[KhalDrogo]

When do we get new packs?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

That's fine but I really don't agree with your sentiment that people selling for lower prices means they're uninformed and therefore should be limited.

Nowhere did I say that they should be limited. All I said was that giving massive profits on packs leads to a lot of uninformed sellers that just want free money and therefore that leads to an inefficient market until they are flushed out.

[CKB]

Josh Hart on ESPN the Jump with Rachel Nichols and Kendrick Perkins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9B7CJIbpJ8

Perkins was super hyped getting a free pack of Run it Back lol

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

The assumption that X% of people who buy packs don't actually know the value of the moments? I promise you there is a decent % of pack buyers that don't know anything about NFT's or the NBA . I didn't even know that was something people debated about.

When you give out free money, everyone and their mom is going to be interested.

Do you not see how bad this is for the future of the TS market at current prices?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Do you not see how bad this is for the future of the TS market at current prices?

Current prices are down because of them, not up. I would love to get those people off the platform. This isn't meant to be a way to get free money. This is supposed to be a way to collect, invest, trade.

They have kept pack prices the way they are right now because they figured instead of them getting more profit they would allow collectors to get the profit and hopefully grow their collection and become more involved. This has backfired though because it leads to a bunch of people just here for the free money. They are trying to increase pack prices to counteract that and will continue to do so. Once pack prices are close to expected EV I think these free money seekers will start to disappear and we will be left with an actual fully functioning free market.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Current prices are down because of them, not up. I would love to get those people off the platform. This isn't meant to be a way to get free money. This is supposed to be a way to collect, invest, trade.

They have kept pack prices the way they are right now because they figured instead of them getting more profit they would allow collectors to get the profit and hopefully grow their collection and become more involved. This has backfired though because it leads to a bunch of people just here for the free money. They are trying to increase pack prices to counteract that and will continue to do so. Once pack prices are close to expected EV I think these free money seekers will start to disappear and we will be left with an actual fully functioning free market.

Which will be significantly smaller than it currently is, leading to lower prices and sales volume overall.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Which will be significantly smaller than it currently is, leading to lower prices and sales volume overall.

I think we are on different pages here. I am talking about people that buy packs and then sell those moments and then wait for the next pack. These people that aren't involved in the marketplace at all.

I have no issue at all with traders that are flipping moments back and forth leading to profit. We actually need those people in order to have a fully fair market.

[Birdanski]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

I’m not necessarily certain this is true or that straightforward. Limiting both sides of action should in theory artificially inflate prices because of the unique behavior on both sides. Sellers generally are selling in large quantity, whereas buyers are generally more selective and buying in lower quantity. So assuming all that is true (educated guess more than anything), you’ve artificially limited supply without a proportionate artificial limit on demand.

Totally agree....limiting the marketplace will stick a fork in this platform. Ppl will get bored with it when you combine with the fact its hard to get paid.

[Birdanski]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Nowhere did I say that they should be limited. All I said was that giving massive profits on packs leads to a lot of uninformed sellers that just want free money and therefore that leads to an inefficient market until they are flushed out.

Count me in as part of the "uniformed seller just looking for free money" group I don't think the videos are very exciting and I don't like the platform and the hoops to jump through to try to get paid. so Im not in it at all of the long haul but if I can make a few bucks I don't mind trying it

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I think we are on different pages here. I am talking about people that buy packs and then sell those moments and then wait for the next pack. These people that aren't involved in the marketplace at all.

I have no issue at all with traders that are flipping moments back and forth leading to profit. We actually need those people in order to have a fully fair market.

They are selling moments and adding to the number of users and overall total sales volume so yes, they are involved in the marketplace even if they only buy packs and sell moments immediately.

Sounds like you're only interested in people who are mega bullish in the product participating in it.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

They are selling moments and adding to the number of users and overall total sales volume so yes, they are involved in the marketplace even if they only buy packs and sell moments immediately.

Sounds like you're only interested in people who are mega bullish in the product participating in it.

If you think that people who buy packs, sell the moments, make free money and repeat are helping the platform then this conversation is a waste of my time.

[Brady7799]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I think we are on different pages here. I am talking about people that buy packs and then sell those moments and then wait for the next pack. These people that aren't involved in the marketplace at all.

I have no issue at all with traders that are flipping moments back and forth leading to profit. We actually need those people in order to have a fully fair market.

i think we will see TS raising the moment quota for packs over time.

for the $9 common packs, no limitations. this allows new users to gain entry.

for other packs, like the last drop, having a 1 moment limit was a good move, imo.

but anyone could buy a cheap moment (until they closed the MP, another good move!) but if the next tier pack drop has 2 moments as a floor for buyers, then you are certainly encouraging users that are more invested in the product.

i won't lie. i was originally going to be one of those pull and dump users. the only problem is now i'm hooked! i have 5 moments in my collection with two from Series 1 that i'm very happy to have.

they got me. they got me good.

[Bruvydsb]

Originally Posted by Brady7799

i think we will see TS raising the moment quota for packs over time.

for the $9 common packs, no limitations. this allows new users to gain entry.

for other packs, like the last drop, having a 1 moment limit was a good move, imo.

but anyone could buy a cheap moment (until they closed the MP, another good move!) but if the next tier pack drop has 2 moments as a floor for buyers, then you are certainly encouraging users that are more invested in the product.

i won't lie. i was originally going to be one of those pull and dump users. the only problem is now i'm hooked! i have 5 moments in my collection with two from Series 1 that i'm very happy to have.

they got me. they got me good.

I think there will be plenty of these.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

If you think that people who buy packs, sell the moments, make free money and repeat are helping the platform then this conversation is a waste of my time.

They are for sure helping the platform lmao because then Topshot can plaster itself all over social media and whatever else with headlines that say "record number of moment sales" "record number of marketplace transactions".

You just cannot accept anything that's not glowingly positive about the platform because you're so heavily invested in it.