NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[Robantica]

[QUOTE=rysportguy;17098440]Jeremy Levine received a $1 million dollar offer for the Zion #1. Sounds like he turned it down but that sale would certainly make headlines.

[url]https://twitter.com/OwnTheMomentNFT/status/1370041834672562187?s=20[/url

We live in crazy times

[ohio_mba]

[QUOTE=Robantica;17098464]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Jeremy Levine received a $1 million dollar offer for the Zion #1. Sounds like he turned it down but that sale would certainly make headlines.

[url]https://twitter.com/OwnTheMomentNFT/status/1370041834672562187?s=20[/url

We live in crazy times

I wouldve taken that deal in 2 seconds.

[MIRRABB]

Why sell it for 1 mil if it will be worth 10 mil in a month

[Fiskeryang]

Quick question, i noticed that Jaxon Hayes only have one moment at the point and is Serie 2. Does that mean it is his rookie moment or something?

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Oh my bad I figured you were talking about the argument I had about a % of people who buy packs not knowing anything about value and just listing at lowest ask therefore causing a downward manipulation of prices due to the packs giving people free 100%+ profit.

That is a fact not an opinion.

Totes... Whoever said on Monday night "if people just held the line a little bit, everyone would sell higher" hit the nail on the head.

It's happening again.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by Fiskeryang

Quick question, i noticed that Jaxon Hayes only have one moment at the point and is Serie 2. Does that mean it is his rookie moment or something?

Not his rookie moment since it isn't his rookie year but it will get a first moment badge since it is the first moment of his on Top Shot.

[TFCNB]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Currently less than 1200 people are completing the Seeing Stars challenge. There will be at least 5000 more people completing it and there is going to be no more of these distributed in packs (still will be some in unopened packs and in the packs saved for promos/influencers)

So if 5000 more people need to buy a large chunk of these moments and the supply is kept constant what do you think happens to the price? This is simple supply and demand economics. It will dip throughout the process but I will be very surprised if it doesn't start climbing back up.

One worrying thing I have seen is that throughout all of this the market cap for all moments has been going down quite a bit.

This suggests that instead of new money coming in people are really just shifting money from S1 and S2 moments into these challenges. If new money doesn't come into this we are in some trouble.

Yes my thoughts too, see my post from yesterday. They aren't allowing new accounts currently, so hopefully that will help.

The Evaluate site shows the market cap for anyone interested, which is currently slightly down from yesterday. $1.48/$1.5 B

[Fiskeryang]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Not his rookie moment since it isn't his rookie year but it will get a first moment badge since it is the first moment of his on Top Shot.

Gotcha, i was wondering since the price point is pretty low for his only moment...

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Totes... Whoever said on Monday night "if people just held the line a little bit, everyone would sell higher" hit the nail on the head.

It's happening again.

These challenges fascinate me because in an earlier post I talked about the simplicity of supply and demand and how the supply being fixed and demand increasing will lead to higher prices. Which I think is exactly what is going to happen, the fascinating part is that even at current prices the reward doesn't equate to the cost of acquiring it.

It's hard to get the fair value of these all star moments but the best estimates put them at being overpriced by about $1500 (at the peak prices we have seen so far) and most people know the Durant reward is not going to be worth that much. This is what happened with the last Cool Cat challenge (not to toot my own horn here but I said in this thread people would get destroyed by the AD challenge if they held through the end of it). The cost of the AD challenge ended up being about $5k and the AD was never going to be worth anything close to that.

[Paderborn1907]

Marketplace seems to work now without major issues. :-)

I mean I really got a crappy pack for the start (Sabonis SS and Porzingis, Crowder S2 35k) unloaded them for 220$.

Purchased now 4 x Series 2 (12-15k) Nuggets moments for my PC and a Donovan ‘Spida’ Mitchel S2 Moment (15k) for 40 bucks for flipping purposes.

I’ve no clue what I’m doing here, but that was quite fun for a 14$ investment and have still enough in my Dapper balance to purchase another common pack. Should’ve done this way earlier.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

These challenges fascinate me because in an earlier post I talked about the simplicity of supply and demand and how the supply being fixed and demand increasing will lead to higher prices. Which I think is exactly what is going to happen, the fascinating part is that even at current prices the reward doesn't equate to the cost of acquiring it.

It's hard to get the fair value of these all star moments but the best estimates put them at being overpriced by about $1500 right now and most people know the Durant reward is not going to be worth that much. This is what happened with the last Cool Cat challenge (not to toot my own horn here but I said in this thread people would get destroyed by the AD challenge if they held through the end of it). The cost of the AD challenge ended up being about $5k and the AD was never going to be worth anything close to that.

I don’t think any reward moment will be worth the price of admission on average. But as someone mentioned earlier, it’s about the gamble of the serial # you will get as well. Low serial #s are a huge part of Topshot. I have absolutely zero facts to back this up but I believe if you get a sub-500 # on either KD or Lebron, it’ll easily cover the entire cost. And you get to keep or sell all the moments it took to get the reward.

[ThePackLife]

My biggest moment is a #503 Luka SS so I follow that listing specifically.

Lowest sale so far today is $680... Lowest ask currently is $740. I'm sure it's gonna swing even more today but that's the pro's and con's of having a liquid market. You guys are gonna stress yourselves out worrying too much about volatility. It's gonna happen regardless. If it stresses you out too much then maybe you need to invest in less expensive moments and try to work your way up to the point where a 25% downswing on one specific moment won't affect you as much. Once again volatility is actually quite normal on this site and aside from pack announcements, it's almost impossible to predict.

[mcgee2134]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Jeremy Levine received a $1 million dollar offer for the Zion #1. Sounds like he turned it down but that sale would certainly make headlines.

https://twitter.com/OwnTheMomentNFT/...672562187?s=20

Sounds like a bunch of BS to me.

[Tonic3]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Jeremy Levine received a $1 million dollar offer for the Zion #1. Sounds like he turned it down but that sale would certainly make headlines.

https://twitter.com/OwnTheMomentNFT/...672562187?s=20

So a digital clip #/50 is worth more than almost any Zion rookie card #/50 I can think of.....and I can’t think of one worth a million. In what crazy world is a digital clip #/50 worth more than a players most expensive rookie card. He says he got an offer but I highly doubt it. It’s a good way to hype up Topshot though... pump pump pump

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

These challenges fascinate me because in an earlier post I talked about the simplicity of supply and demand and how the supply being fixed and demand increasing will lead to higher prices. Which I think is exactly what is going to happen, the fascinating part is that even at current prices the reward doesn't equate to the cost of acquiring it.

It's hard to get the fair value of these all star moments but the best estimates put them at being overpriced by about $1500 (at the peak prices we have seen so far) and most people know the Durant reward is not going to be worth that much. This is what happened with the last Cool Cat challenge (not to toot my own horn here but I said in this thread people would get destroyed by the AD challenge if they held through the end of it). The cost of the AD challenge ended up being about $5k and the AD was never going to be worth anything close to that.

Did the values of the moments required for the challenge crash after the challenge ended?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by mcgee2134

Sounds like a bunch of BS to me.

Originally Posted by Tonic3

So a digital clip #/50 is worth more than almost any Zion rookie card #/50 I can think of.....and I can’t think of one worth a million. In what crazy world is a digital clip #/50 worth more than a players most expensive rookie card. He says he got an offer but I highly doubt it. It’s a good way to hype up Topshot though... pump pump pump

I obviously have no way to verify it but the estimated value for it is around $700k based on the current market. Wouldn't shock me to see a premium on that being offered. Could be totally false though.

As for why these carry any value. That is a conversation that has been worn out a ton. Remember they don't do 1/1's. So the serial number 1/50 is the most valuable card available (aside from the cosmic set /49 but that just leads to more headaches). Also remember this is the first series ever for NFT NBA highlights so there is an additional premium on top of it being his rookie year.

[val47]

My only concern about TS, the focus on challenges and the problem long term for the rest of the cards to hold value as a standalone moment.

I would focus more on serial number and SSP series rather than completion of challenges.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

Did the values of the moments required for the challenge crash after the challenge ended?

Big time. They went from around $500 when the challenge ended (they peaked at $900 at one point) to under $100. To be fair though those highlights and players weren't nearly as high caliber as the all stars are in this.

[Tonic3]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

I obviously have no way to verify it but the estimated value for it is around $700k based on the current market. Wouldn't shock me to see a premium on that being offered. Could be totally false though.

As for why these carry any value. That is a conversation that has been worn out a ton. Remember they don't do 1/1's. So the serial number 1/50 is the most valuable card available (aside from the cosmic set /49 but that just leads to more headaches). Also remember this is the first series ever for NFT NBA highlights so there is an additional premium on top of it being his rookie year.

I get all of the arguments but my fundamental question is do people really value a digital clip #/50 MORE than a physical card #/50? Do all of you buying and selling these NFT's truly believe they're more valuable than a comparable physical equivalent. A zion rc #/50 from prizm (his first prizm card) may be a 5 figure card but it certainly isn't a $700,000 card. The astronomical valuations of these digital clips just doesn't make sense in the whole collecting model/environment.

[ffwiseguy]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Currently less than 1200 people are completing the Seeing Stars challenge.

I saw this posted in the discord as well. Where are you seeing this info?

[Wildcat55]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Some people have "paper" hands, they see one instance of a potential price drop so they drop their price a lot to guarantee a sale. They know their price will get sold at that because it's such an extreme drop

I’m one of them...I subscribe to the old adage that nobody ever loses money taking a profit. I like to hedge and lock in what I feel is a solid profit margin vs. always trying to time the market and pick tops/bottoms which never works out in the long term. This approach has served me quite well in the stock market, real estate, precious metals, sportscards, etc.

I sold my SS Devin Booker, Curry, and Austin Rivers from my SS pack all for about $210. I probably left $100 on the table since I sold my Booker for $150 a few days ago but I am quite happy to turn $14 into $210. I understand the market but this is how I choose to buy and sell and it suits me. I suspect there are many like me as well...

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

I get all of the arguments but my fundamental question is do people really value a digital clip #/50 more than a physical card #/50? Do all of you buying and selling these NFT's truly believe they're more valuable than a comparable physical equivalent. A zion rc #/50 from prizm (his first prizm card) may be a 5 figure card but it certainly isn't a $700,000 card. The astronomical valuations of these digital clips just doesn't make sense in the whole collecting model/environment.

That's the proverbial and literal million dollar question.

Nobody knows that.

From a pure collectors standpoint there are a ton of people in this right now just to make money and see what the buzz is about and see if they can get their piece of the gravy train.

What remains to be seen is how many people truly care enough about the moments and their personal stake in the rarity of their NFT for the product to have long term viability.

Some will argue that it's no different than collecting memorabilia. Some will argue that it's totally different. Nobody knows. Is it Beanie Babies or is it Uber/Lyft?

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Wildcat55

I’m one of them...I subscribe to the old adage that nobody ever loses money taking a profit. I like to hedge and lock in what I feel is a solid profit margin vs. always trying to time the market and pick tops/bottoms which never works out in the long term. This approach has served me quite well in the stock market, real estate, precious metals, sportscards, etc.

I sold my SS Devin Booker, Curry, and Austin Rivers from my SS pack all for about $210. I probably left $100 on the table since I sold my Booker for $150 a few days ago but I am quite happy to turn $14 into $210. I understand the market but this is how I choose to buy and sell and it suits me. I suspect there are many like me as well...

Bird in the hand, two in the bush. Some people rush to undercut prices as well because they may see another desirable moment that they really want and want to free up the funds quickly to buy it before someone else does.

[thenightman]

I got a $1 million offer is the new Is it worth X because it's listed on ebay for X.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

I get all of the arguments but my fundamental question is do people really value a digital clip #/50 MORE than a physical card #/50? Do all of you buying and selling these NFT's truly believe they're more valuable than a comparable physical equivalent. A zion rc #/50 from prizm (his first prizm card) may be a 5 figure card but it certainly isn't a $700,000 card. The astronomical valuations of these digital clips just doesn't make sense in the whole collecting model/environment.

You make a good point. The only thing I will push back on is instead of looking at it /50. Look at it as if it is the 1/1 because that is how top shot collectors consider these things since we don't really have parallels. Then give it a bump for being part of the 1st ever series of digital NBA NFT's. You are correct NFT's are definitely being valued higher than the sports card counterparts though and I think a big part of that is because of the future potential with these. Everyone knows what everyone owns. They are very easy to track and verify. That makes these have a much higher utility potential than a sports card. What if there was season tickets and a special seat in the stadium for the 1/1 Zion holder. There is a not to distant future where something like that could exist.