Potential Worth of Soccer Cards as Market Grows

[jjeanius]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I opened five a few weeks back. Three Mbappe base. One Messi RWB. Nothing else of note. Prizm base is such an easy gem, so the floor is high.

Three Mbappe base out of five boxes is really good. 120 base per box, so you would get 2 per 5 boxes on average

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

Three Mbappe base out of five boxes is really good. 120 base per box, so you would get 2 per 5 boxes on average

It did not feel really good

[sambruin98]

Originally Posted by nera20

Thanks these seem to be a solid deal for around $135 a box then

I've opened seven sealed boxes in the last year, with vastly different results on what you'll find within each fat pack box:

4 fat pack boxes from the same seller: All had 8 silvers and 4 red mosaics
2 fat pack boxes from a different seller: Both had only red mosaics (12 per box)
1 fat pack box from a third seller: 7 silver and 5 red mosaic

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

You really don’t understand how the market works do you? It’s not simply x player scored more goals than y player. People buy on prospective value. Value is constantly re-evaluated in light of other cards, hobby trends, and also fear of missing an affordable point to buy in on a player. This is why prices rise so dramatically so fast. Blink and you miss it. Performance is only one of a myriad of factors at play.

What you are describing is how SPECULATORS, FLIPPERS, and INVESTORS behave, not how collectors behave.

Collectors couldn't care less about "prospective value" because they are not planning on re-selling the cards they buy. They buy cards for their PC's.

99% of the time, card values change because something the player does in action causes perception of the player's current or future value to change. A perfect example of this would be Haaland, who went from being a nobody to the hottest new striker on the planet because he scored 9 goals in 8 Bundesliga matches for Dortmund. That's logical market activity.

But that's not what's happening with Mbappe....the activity in his cards is simply rampant speculation, i.e. people buying his cards ONLY because they see the price rising and ONLY to try to flip it to the next greater fool before the bubble bursts. I'd bet you that 90% couldn't even tell you the name of the stadium PSG plays in, or the club Mbappe played for before PSG (i.e. AS Monaco).

And that's not a sign of a healthy or sustainable market....that's the classic sign of a bubble forming, and all economic bubbles pop eventually.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mfw13

What you are describing is how SPECULATORS, FLIPPERS, and INVESTORS behave, not how collectors behave.

Collectors couldn't care less about "prospective value" because they are not planning on re-selling the cards they buy. They buy cards for their PC's.

99% of the time, card values change because something the player does in action causes perception of the player's current or future value to change. A perfect example of this would be Haaland, who went from being a nobody to the hottest new striker on the planet because he scored 9 goals in 8 Bundesliga matches for Dortmund. That's logical market activity.

But that's not what's happening with Mbappe....the activity in his cards is simply rampant speculation, i.e. people buying his cards ONLY because they see the price rising and ONLY to try to flip it to the next greater fool before the bubble bursts. I'd bet you that 90% couldn't even tell you the name of the stadium PSG plays in, or the club Mbappe played for before PSG (i.e. AS Monaco).

And that's not a sign of a healthy or sustainable market....that's the classic sign of a bubble forming, and all economic bubbles pop eventually.

The line gets blurred often between collectors and investors. Sometimes people pretend they don’t care when their cards appreciate or depreciate. Half of what makes collecting exciting is watching what you own climb in value, even if you never plan on selling. There’s a feeling of satisfaction that other people see value in the same things and or players you do. I was a big time collector when I was young (back when people read BECKETT) and loved seeing my cards on the “hot list” and seeing that up arrow in the column (baseball and basketball). Even though I never dreamed of selling, I just wanted to trade with my friends.

Don’t want to collect Mbappe? That’s fine, but don’t be surprised that many others do. There’s a lot of hypocrisy in telling people who they have to collect and what they have to buy to be a true collector.

If people want to flip Mbappe’s to make money? Let em, just don’t buy in yourself. Cards are worth what people are willing to pay for them just like everything else. Think the price is too high? Don’t buy. No one is forcing people to buy Mbappe.

I’m not going to hate on people for buying Pele, Baggio, Messi, CR7, Sancho, Mbappe, or anyone else for that matter. It’s totally up to them.

Personally, I stop buying when I think that the risk/reward is too great so I’m done buying Mbappe. Others may disagree and that’s their prerogative. I do flip cards, because I’m putting money aside for my kids, and my wife’s myriad of COVID-19 projects haha. However, I love sports and the whole experience. I’m not some heartless mercenary that uses deception and games to make money, I just try to stay way ahead of trends and buy low and sell high. And yes, I root for the players I’ve invested in, and it’s a lot of fun!

Right now, Ronaldo and Messi are better buys than Mbappe and Sancho. That wasn’t the case a few months ago though. The WHOLE modern soccer market is rising though so if you place money on any of these four you would probably at least break even. I wouldn’t hold my breath on this bubble bursting. Soccer still has a LOT of room to grow.


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

What you are describing is how SPECULATORS, FLIPPERS, and INVESTORS behave, not how collectors behave.

Collectors couldn't care less about "prospective value" because they are not planning on re-selling the cards they buy. They buy cards for their PC's.

99% of the time, card values change because something the player does in action causes perception of the player's current or future value to change. A perfect example of this would be Haaland, who went from being a nobody to the hottest new striker on the planet because he scored 9 goals in 8 Bundesliga matches for Dortmund. That's logical market activity.

But that's not what's happening with Mbappe....the activity in his cards is simply rampant speculation, i.e. people buying his cards ONLY because they see the price rising and ONLY to try to flip it to the next greater fool before the bubble bursts. I'd bet you that 90% couldn't even tell you the name of the stadium PSG plays in, or the club Mbappe played for before PSG (i.e. AS Monaco).

And that's not a sign of a healthy or sustainable market....that's the classic sign of a bubble forming, and all economic bubbles pop eventually.

Messi hasn’t played in months either. Do you think his 2017 TC refractor should be a $5-$10 card like it was the last time he played?

Fact is that the soccer market was insanely undervalued, and people have caught on.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Messi hasn’t played in months either. Do you think his 2017 TC refractor should be a $5-$10 card like it was the last time he played?

Fact is that the soccer market was insanely undervalued, and people have caught on.

I agree with this. There are a lot of American sport flippers moving to soccer because of how cheap cards are and how well-known the sport is.

Right now, basketball has the beat sports card market because of how globally the game is watched. Soccer has millions of more fans than basketball.

The more flippers realize soccer cards are undervalued, the more money that will pour in and prices will skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mbappe and Messi cards are 2-4x today’s value in 2 months.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Messi hasn’t played in months either. Do you think his 2017 TC refractor should be a $5-$10 card like it was the last time he played?

Fact is that the soccer market was insanely undervalued, and people have caught on.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Messi hasn’t played in months either. Do you think his 2017 TC refractor should be a $5-$10 card like it was the last time he played?

Fact is that the soccer market was insanely undervalued, and people have caught on.

So much truth here. 1. Soccer is on fire 2. 2017 TC refractors are going bananas Haven’t seen any 2017 green or blue Messi or Ronaldo refractors listed in a while. I think everyone is holding.


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[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by sambruin98

I've opened seven sealed boxes in the last year, with vastly different results on what you'll find within each fat pack box:

4 fat pack boxes from the same seller: All had 8 silvers and 4 red mosaics
2 fat pack boxes from a different seller: Both had only red mosaics (12 per box)
1 fat pack box from a third seller: 7 silver and 5 red mosaic

Save for the second seller, those were the usual results. You always get 4-5 Red Mosaics per box.

You got lucky and got 2 hot boxes. I don't think there are more than 200 copies of those.

[cruiserdaddy7]

$86 for a base Chrome Mbappe now.

Also Messi lot of 9 BASE brought $59.

These prices keep surprising me.

[SoftLikeButta]

I have been pondering the thought of superstar players that will come to the MLS (Inter Miami) in 2021 - 2022... for example: Luka Modric , World Cup legend, Ballon d'Or winner, superstar midfielder. I have been trying to find great cards to invest in all players looking for a move CR7, Saurez ect:

[jjeanius]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

$86 for a base Chrome Mbappe now.

Also Messi lot of 9 BASE brought $59.

These prices keep surprising me.

I am constantly amazed that I am constantly amazed.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

$86 for a base Chrome Mbappe now.

Also Messi lot of 9 BASE brought $59.

These prices keep surprising me.

They have no reason to slow down anytime soon.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Blowout wants $350 for a box of 18/19 Donruss Hobby now. Seems ambitious, or no?

[Miskatonicman]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Blowout wants $350 for a box of 18/19 Donruss Hobby now. Seems ambitious, or no?

Far too rich for my blood, but I have a feeling they will still find customers right now. Good luck to any buyers, at that price they will probably need some.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Fact is that the soccer market was insanely undervalued, and people have caught on.

Perhaps the cards of soccer's stars (Messi & Ronaldo) were undervalued, and young soccer players like Mbappe, Sancho, and Haaland certainly haven't gotten the level of attention that young players in other sports do (probably because there is no player draft in soccer, and there are multiple leagues), but five players does not make a market.

Are Pele cards going through the roof? Beckham cards? Harry Kane cards? Mo Salah cards? Gianluigi Donnarumma cards? Kun Aguero cards? Robert Lewandowski cards?

No.

This is just speculators piling into cards of a few players that buyers groups have highlighted for them on the internet.

[SDcardguy24]

man I don't even want to look up how much I sold my Mbappe prizm silver for back in 2018 after the World Cup

Still have some 2017 chrome base and a few of the sticker rookies. I really like the look of the 2017 Museum card too.



Also the last few weeks I have noticed some bigger facebook & instagram accounts posting their Mbappe/Messi/Ronaldo stashes. And next thing I know everyone else's WTB posts now include those 3 guys too lol. Still probably lots of room to grow though.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Perhaps the cards of soccer's stars (Messi & Ronaldo) were undervalued, and young soccer players like Mbappe, Sancho, and Haaland certainly haven't gotten the level of attention that young players in other sports do (probably because there is no player draft in soccer, and there are multiple leagues), but five players does not make a market.

Are Pele cards going through the roof? Beckham cards? Harry Kane cards? Mo Salah cards? Gianluigi Donnarumma cards? Kun Aguero cards? Robert Lewandowski cards?

No.

This is just speculators piling into cards of a few players that buyers groups have highlighted for them on the internet.

Five players do not make a market, but they sure can the driving force to increasing a market. Markets are driven by supply and demand. If the demand for those five players go up substantially, the market will increase, and markets of players outside of those five will follow suit.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

Five players do not make a market, but they sure can the driving force to increasing a market. Markets are driven by supply and demand. If the demand for those five players go up substantially, the market will increase, and markets of players outside of those five will follow suit.

In a market where there is not a lot of differentiation between products, what you say would be true.

But in the case of sports cards in general (and in the case of soccer cards in specific), there is a huge amount of differentiation between individual players.

A rise in Messi prices isn't going to cause a rise in Suarez or Greizmann prices (two of his Barcelona teammates). A rise in Mpabbe prices isn't going to cause a rise in Neymar or Cavani prices (two of his PSG teammates).

The only element of the market that is rising in tandem with the prices of hot players is unopened wax containing key cards of those players.

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by mfw13

In a market where there is not a lot of differentiation between products, what you say would be true.

But in the case of sports cards in general (and in the case of soccer cards in specific), there is a huge amount of differentiation between individual players.

A rise in Messi prices isn't going to cause a rise in Suarez or Greizmann prices (two of his Barcelona teammates). A rise in Mpabbe prices isn't going to cause a rise in Neymar or Cavani prices (two of his PSG teammates).

The only element of the market that is rising in tandem with the prices of hot players is unopened wax containing key cards of those players.

If $500,000 enters the soccer market in the next 6 months from "prospectors" of other sports card markets, that is $500,000 that collectors have to put towards other players.

You can see this in full force with Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto Topps Update RCs. GaryVee (with over 1 million twitter followers) hyped up the Acuna and Soto cards, and the money that "new" investors spent went to people already in the game, who took that money and moved into guys like Trout, Tatis, Wander Franco, and even Mahomes in the football market.

[fadster]

While a rise in Mbappe doesn't pull his team mates up, it pulls up the promising players below him like a conveyor belt. There's much more interest straight out of the gate for any 16/17/18 year old with promise, everyone want to get the next Mbappe like phenomenon. A couple of years ago you could have picked up a Camavinga, Doku or Greenwood rookie for $1-$2 with no competition but now all those prospects are bought up to $10-$20 immediately. On the next rung up the likes of Ansu Fati is already pulling in $160+ for PSA 10's, Haaland and Sancho on the rung above more.

I know it's not a portion of the market a lot of people here look at but the overall football market outside Prizm and Chrome has been strong the last year. Nice trading cards and stickers of all the top players through the years have been doing well, especially high grade. Off the top of my head I've seen a 3rd year Maradona Panini do $6500+ in PSA 10, a Ronaldinho rookie sticker in PSA 10 do $2k, a raw mint Beckenbauer rookie card did $500. Most Pele rookies have been very strong too, a PSA 3 went for double what my BVG 4 cost last year. Also encouraging is the jump of the players in the tier below (hobby wise) who moved from $20-$30 to $100+ in high grade, your Xavi's, Iniesta's, Neuers, etc.

[Jacks2323]

Look at what is happening to the Lebron 2012 Prizm base. Currently it sits at about $300 ungraded. The 2014 WC Messi's are headed in that direction.

[ThoseBackPages]

more POMO leaking though!

[bloomie6]

Not a hidden gem any longer... Hobby box 350 and jumbo 100+

If you can even find it...

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by bloomie6

Not a hidden gem any longer... Hobby box 350 and jumbo 100+

If you can even find it...

Was 64.95 few hours ago for jumbo. Just not a huge fan of it, especially at 100. I dont see it.

What is 17/18 Chrome worth now? 500 a box?