First Buzz: 2023 Topps World Baseball Classic baseball cards

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by anusinha

It was up for weeks on topps.com at 80, limits yes, but those could be worked around.

Very true. I made 4 separate orders via Topps.com (should've made more but I didn't want to risk my account being banned) even with the 1 per household limit.

But man, Buffalo was the MVP at $85 per because it offered discounts for certain tiers, free product with purchase and no sales tax. Not to mention, those who purchased 12+ loosies had a chance of receiving a sealed case(s).

[tgriffey30]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

It was also available for hours at $84.99 haha.

Well I know that. Lol
I just meant that in regards to the $30 increase today.

[ClevelandIC]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Agreed!

By the way, how many boxes/cases do you have left? And, from what you ripped, were they all personal breaks or did you use any for group breaks?

Opened 26 Boxes - Two huge hits that will more than cover the cost. Trout Country Debut Red Auto /5 and Ohtani Relic Auto /30

Every single box was purchased for personal reasons, no breaks on this stuff. I did something crazy and I'm auctioning off every hit that I have left to end on one night. I don't have a real reason why I decided to do it this way but it felt like a fun decision - all ending close together and have a bourbon pour while I watch the festivities end. I specifically chose to Auction the Ohtani as auctions have actually done better than BIN/BO.

As for what I have left (1) Sealed Case and 8 Loose Boxes. All of the remaining inventory I have is direct from Topps.

I will likely sell all of the cards I have and buy back one card as an homage to this product in my PC. It's something I like to do with memorable products, fun way to enjoy them while also maximizing the returns during the hype. Couple examples of this are the 2020 Finest Flashbacks craze - I have a PC Rainbow w/ Super and a buyback Andre Dawson Auto slabbed up. 2022 Logofractor - I would still like to add a specific card from this but waiting to see if I can land it for cheaper. Anyway, not sure which card from this product I will target but I'm leaning towards a Trea Turner base or Auto as he was the main USA highlight reel when the games were going on!

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by tgriffey30

Well I know that. Lol
I just meant that in regards to the $30 increase today.

Haha :P

Yeah, it's definitely a sizeable jump. Not surprised though, boxes were cheaper on Buffalo than eBay (when considering sales tax).

For those interested in getting cheaper WBC boxes from Buffalo, time to start buying buyback cards at 60-70% haha.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

So, I've been farting around with the print run on this product, and the traditional Topps SPs of big names.

The nameplate flags are advertised as 1:546 packs * 37 subjects = 20,202 boxes.

Foil fractor image variation 1/1 at 1:673 * 30 = 20,190.

Base foilfractor 1/1 at 1:209 * 100 = 20,900.

Assuming "Jrs" are on the jersey nameplate, and I'm not took concerned for the sake of this analysis, there are ~244 non 1/1 booklets. Advertised at 1:88 packs, this gives us 21,472 boxes.

So, Topps math is never clean, but there are somewhere around 21k boxes produced, maybe about 900ish less, and unlikely to be significantly more.

Here's where things get tricky.

Relic Autograph Set
The 37 card relic autograph set is advertised as having:
Base /99 - 1:9
Orange /25 - 1:25
Black /10 - 1:58
Red /5
Black /1
I.E. 140 cards per player.

The Black /10 looks fairly close (37*10*58) = 21,460 boxes.
But Orange is a little too high (37*25*25) = 23,125 boxes

Some players are SPed, and I think some players are missing certain parallels all together. Will Smith orange is /14, and I haven't seen ANY Teoscar Hernandez Oranges. That only gets us down to 22,225 boxes if Teoscar is omitted.

Where numbers get squirrely is for the /99 version. 37*99*9 = 32,967 boxes. Way too high.
A couple players are confirmed SPed:
Acuna Jr /50
Soto /30
Shohei /30
Salvy /55

And I am inclined to believe that a few players have zero base /99 relics based on Ebay auctions:
Teoscar
Trout
Miggy
Arraez
Realmuto

This only gets us down to 26,424 boxes, so I think there's several more players that are either totally omitted from the black /99, or are missing parallels. I haven't done an exhaustive search, but more definitely are missing some portion of the run.

Non Relic Foil Autograph
So as to the base auto checklist, we are presented with:
Non numbered (1:3)
Ice /99 (1:9)
Gold /50 (1:13)
Orange /25 (1:23)
Black /50 (1:55)
Red /5 (1:106)
Foil 1/1 (1:505)

These numbers indicate SPs on their face. If all 37 subjects had an Ice at 1:9, the odds would be around 1/2, or 1:18, for the golds. It's clear that some players only signed gold, and a smaller amount even signed orange, and so on.

Again, those Ice numbers for 37 subjects put us at (99*37*9) = 32,967 boxes; way too high.

So from what I've seen on ebay, I think the following DON'T EXIST:
Harry Ford: ALL
Trout: black or worse
Miggy: orange or worse
Acuna: gold or worse
Soto: gold or worse
Robert Jr: gold or worse
Realmuto: cracked ice
JRod: cracked ice

Those exceptions get us down to 22,100 total boxes based on the gold calculations.. however, it still leaves us with 28,512 boxes based on the cracked ice number. I suspect a far larger amount of cracked ice are omitted.

International Debut - the gambler's demise
International Debut is grossly misleading. Thirteen card checklist, with 50 copies of each advertised, at 1:40 packs = 26,000 boxes. Soto and JRod appear to have signed all the variations, but I don't see any Trouts except red/5 and lower, or any Acuna /50.

If you omit Trout and Acuna from the print run, you get 11*40*50 = 22,000 boxes. Much closer.

Long story long: If you hit a big name player, it's probably going to be a highly SPed parallel auto. Don't have any expectation that base autos are created equally.

Based on the foregoing, the total number of autographs per subject in the entire print at 20900 boxes:
Shohei: 94 (1:223 boxes)
Trout: 81 (1:259 boxes)

For comparison, arguably the lowest tier autograph in the set (Jonathan Aranda) appears to have at least 337 numbered autographs alone, and another ~300 non-numbered base autos. Base auto print runs are an exercise for another day.
Aranda: 637 (1:32 boxes)

Happy hunting!

Pretty great breakdown here. Thanks for doing this...

I've ripped 30 boxes now with another 30ish on the way...

Anecdotally, I have yet to hit a single Ice auto /99 of anyone.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

Opened 26 Boxes - Two huge hits that will more than cover the cost. Trout Country Debut Red Auto /5 and Ohtani Relic Auto /30

Every single box was purchased for personal reasons, no breaks on this stuff. I did something crazy and I'm auctioning off every hit that I have left to end on one night. I don't have a real reason why I decided to do it this way but it felt like a fun decision - all ending close together and have a bourbon pour while I watch the festivities end. I specifically chose to Auction the Ohtani as auctions have actually done better than BIN/BO.

As for what I have left (1) Sealed Case and 8 Loose Boxes. All of the remaining inventory I have is direct from Topps.

I will likely sell all of the cards I have and buy back one card as an homage to this product in my PC. It's something I like to do with memorable products, fun way to enjoy them while also maximizing the returns during the hype. Couple examples of this are the 2020 Finest Flashbacks craze - I have a PC Rainbow w/ Super and a buyback Andre Dawson Auto slabbed up. 2022 Logofractor - I would still like to add a specific card from this but waiting to see if I can land it for cheaper. Anyway, not sure which card from this product I will target but I'm leaning towards a Trea Turner base or Auto as he was the main USA highlight reel when the games were going on!

That's awesome! And once again, congratulations on your 2 big hits!!

Regarding your comment about covering cost, were you specifically referring to the 26 boxes you ripped? Because, if so, those 2 cards might even cover the entire cost of all the boxes (44) you purchased.

Best of luck with your auctions! I think you'll greatly enjoy that night

I always love reading how you plan to do things. It's so methodological and logically sound. I also see some parallels between what we view as "great-value" products and how we approach matters (you certainly do a lot more ripping than I though).

[mredsox89]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

Pretty great breakdown here. Thanks for doing this...

I've ripped 30 boxes now with another 30ish on the way...

Anecdotally, I have yet to hit a single Ice auto /99 of anyone.

Me and a buddy are just under 40 total boxes and have, if my count is correct, significantly more gold foil autos than cracked ice autos. The odds on the cracked ice are definitely off

[theredmenace]

I really hope Topps takes a positive lesson from this set and creates event based products in the future. Unfortunately their only takeaway will be "we should have priced this at $150/box" lol.

I know there's some overlap with Topps Now but imagine a Playoffs set with sticker authenticated game-worn relics and on-card autos. Add some SSP inserts and a curated base checklist and I think they'd have a killer product. Ohtani carried this product, he'd 100% carry a playoffs set now that he's on the Dodgers.

[StlBen]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

I really hope Topps takes a positive lesson from this set and creates event based products in the future. Unfortunately their only takeaway will be "we should have priced this at $150/box" lol.

I know there's some overlap with Topps Now but imagine a Playoffs set with sticker authenticated game-worn relics and on-card autos. Add some SSP inserts and a curated base checklist and I think they'd have a killer product. Ohtani carried this product, he'd 100% carry a playoffs set now that he's on the Dodgers.

Annual boxes like this from all Star Weekend would be nice. Get some prospects autos from the futures game, maybe some ball relics from the derby, a few random celebs from the softball game.....Yes Please.

[Bulldurham]

Just got my 4 in…solid! Devers is a 1/1.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bulldurham]

Originally Posted by Bulldurham

Just got my 4 in…solid! Devers is a 1/1.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Side note, box with the nameplate was noticeably bulging even in the cellophane.

[Turborush]

Originally Posted by Bulldurham

Side note, box with the nameplate was noticeably bulging even in the cellophane.

My two were very noticeable as well.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Turborush

My two were very noticeable as well.

My one nameplate was as well but then I had another bulging box with 4 extra base cards (14 cards total).

[StlBen]

Got my last 4 boxes. Yeah I opened. Better than the last 8. Here we’re the top 4 cards:


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[bub838]

These won’t be $80 a box

https://x.com/mjmelendez7/status/174...BCCSifQY-QIIrQ

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by bub838

These won’t be $80 a box

https://x.com/mjmelendez7/status/174...BCCSifQY-QIIrQ

It would be nice if WBC had their own Dynasty release but these will probably be included in the main release along with the lower-tier vet and RC autos.

[bd3d86]

Only 15 more base and 2 captains for the set. If anyone can help, let me know!


1 Mike Trout - USA
3 Bo Naylor - Canada
16 Kyle Schwarber - USA
17 Nabil Crismatt - Colombia
28 Jose Ramos - Panama
31 Kenley Jansen - Netherlands
45 Shohei Ohtani - Japan
56 Javier Báez - Puerto Rico
59 Julio Rodríguez - Dominican Republic
64 Gio Urshela - Colombia
75 Joey Meneses - Mexico
78 Manny Machado - Dominican Republic
82 Otto Lopez - Canada
84 Munetaka Murakami - Japan
96 Cedric Mullins - USA

CC-12 Shohei Ohtani - Japan
CC-18 Francisco Lindor - Puerto Rico

[bub838]

Originally Posted by cj828282

It would be nice if WBC had their own Dynasty release but these will probably be included in the main release along with the lower-tier vet and RC autos.

Yeah these will be some pretty good chases. Dynasty wax is way out of my league.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by bub838

Yeah these will be some pretty good chases. Dynasty wax is way out of my league.

Dynasty is often a true beauty, but man-o-man you better be ready to flush some money. It is about as big of a gamble as you can take in the baseball hobby. Wish it was a little better value.

[Mike2424]

Is anyone still waiting for boxes to ship from Topps?

[SoCalsFinest]

Originally Posted by bub838

These won’t be $80 a box

https://x.com/mjmelendez7/status/174...BCCSifQY-QIIrQ

How much do you think? $900 a box? lol

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by bub838

These won’t be $80 a box

https://x.com/mjmelendez7/status/174...BCCSifQY-QIIrQ

This is awesome! I'm in Dallas, heading home tonight to rip my four that were delivered yesterday - can't wait. First rip of baseball wax in a long time.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by SoCalsFinest

How much do you think? $900 a box? lol

I think you may be right! Really pretty cards. I like Dynasty and have picked up a "cheap" single here and there.

[SoCalsFinest]

Originally Posted by bub838

I think you may be right! Really pretty cards. I like Dynasty and have picked up a "cheap" single here and there.

Yeah, nice looking cards for sure. The one Dynasty card I like the most that I have is of Reggie Jackson in Angels uniform.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by SoCalsFinest

Yeah, nice looking cards for sure. The one Dynasty card I like the most that I have is of Reggie Jackson in Angels uniform.

I picked up a Pudge Rodriguez last year. He's in a Tigers uni which he doesn't have that many autos of.