Ronald Acuña - Page 354

EldoEsq · 04-22-2019, 04:06 PM

I find it shocking that the Walmart holiday cards are popular... I think this is the first time that any card from any of these sets has ever been popular ever...

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brios8 · 04-22-2019, 04:11 PM

And yet again the 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st keeps getting ignored..
Still $13-15 raw
Should be at $30-40 raw if compared to the Update at $10

brios8 · 04-22-2019, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EldoEsq

I find it shocking that the Walmart holiday cards are popular... I think this is the first time that any card from any of these sets has ever been popular ever...

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Not many produced and exact same image as the SP
This is a great buy. Soon will hit $30 raw.. maybe $150 psa 10

sigmachi · 04-22-2019, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brios8

And yet again the 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st keeps getting ignored..
Still $13-15 raw
Should be at $30-40 raw if compared to the Update at $10

it's not a RC though. That's why I'm not rushing out to pick that one up. I love the First Chrome for autos but the base just do nothing for me.

brios8 · 04-22-2019, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sigmachi

it's not a RC though. That's why I'm not rushing out to pick that one up. I love the First Chrome for autos but the base just do nothing for me.

Why is that?

Why then isnt his topps chrome auto $700 and the bowman chrome 1st auto $150

The chrome 1st non auto in my opinion should def have more hobby love. Not just the auto

pcptrade · 04-22-2019, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think we decided on 20k+.

Ok, Thanks. PSA pop report shows 159 PSA 9's and 293 PSA 10's. BGS pop report shows 41 BGS 9's, 96 BGS 9.5's and 9 BGS 10's. No black labels yet. Wonder how many (what percentage) of the raw cards have been graded.

pewe · 04-22-2019, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think we decided on 20k+.

I thought our guess was approx 10k? I can go find the math again, but it was something like 6k hobby and 4k retail or something.

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ThoseBackPages · 04-22-2019, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brios8

And yet again the 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st keeps getting ignored..
Still $13-15 raw
Should be at $30-40 raw if compared to the Update at $10

MEGA!

ThoseBackPages · 04-22-2019, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

I thought our guess was approx 10k? I can go find the math again, but it was something like 6k hobby and 4k retail or something.

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20 is closer to realistic

KhalDrogo · 04-22-2019, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

I thought our guess was approx 10k? I can go find the math again, but it was something like 6k hobby and 4k retail or something.

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Way more than that for hobby. There’s 1-2 in every hobby case alone. Then add jumbo.

Zauron · 04-22-2019, 04:26 PM

Do you guys think jumbo cases are wise investments? Or will these always be looked as the ugly step child compared to hobby cases?

marl1220 · 04-22-2019, 04:31 PM

I recently picked up some 2018 Heritage. Graded and ungraded. I see this being one of his cards that will jump soon.

pewe · 04-22-2019, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Way more than that for hobby. There’s 1-2 in every hobby case alone. Then add jumbo.

Fine... you made me look it up, again

There are ~2700 hobby cases, and ~4100 jumbo cases = ~6800 cards at 1:case

We've never nailed down their print run in retail, as far as I know. But if they are at the pack stated rate (SP are 1:45 packs), that would add ~2K included in retail.

If they included them more frequently in retail... lets say at the exact same per pack rate of hobby (i.e., 1:432)... then maybe there are ~10k

So maybe the range is somewhere between 9k-17k?

ThoseBackPages · 04-22-2019, 04:36 PM

lets also remember that 20K is NOT A LOT of a Flagship RC

only Harper can rival that ... possibly ever, but certainly modern

moosetequila · 04-22-2019, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

lets also remember that 20K is NOT A LOT of a Flagship RC

only Harper can rival that ... possibly ever, but certainly modern

What are your opinions of TC vs TCU #25 production wise?

ThoseBackPages · 04-22-2019, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moosetequila

What are your opinions of TC vs TCU #25 production wise?

TCU is much "rarer"

oddstuff · 04-22-2019, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Ok, Thanks. PSA pop report shows 159 PSA 9's and 293 PSA 10's. BGS pop report shows 41 BGS 9's, 96 BGS 9.5's and 9 BGS 10's. No black labels yet. Wonder how many (what percentage) of the raw cards have been graded.

Purely speculative on my part but I think there are a lot of unopened S2 cases sitting in warehouses of the big sellers that we can not even fathom. Between BGS and PSA, only 663 cards have currently been graded. At that rate, I can't imagine more than 2000 of the bat down cards have been pulled from a pack/box/case so far. If there are 20k cards (from 20k cases), that means only 2000 cases have been opened...representing only 10% of the 20k cases. To the poster's question (all speculative of course), maybe only 5% of the bat down cards have been graded so far. But...many of these cards may be sitting in the warehouse for a while buried in a case until big investors decide to buy up a bunch of the S2 cases and crack them open for grading purposes...OR...they may decide to buy and sit on them as unopened material for the long haul too (in which case the available supply of gem mint graded cards will be much more limited to those seeking to add one to their PC or investment portfolio).

If the print run is 10k, then 2000 pulled cards = 2000 of 10000 cases opened...20%...leaving still 80% of cards unpulled/ungraded (the 2000 number is just a random number that I believe is a reasonable number of found cards based on the 663 submitted to BGS/PSA - that number could be much lower like 1000-1500 found bat down cards)...still leaves a lot of bat down cards unaccounted for in terms of being found.

KhalDrogo · 04-22-2019, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

Fine... you made me look it up, again

There are ~2700 hobby cases, and ~4100 jumbo cases = ~6800 cards at 1:case

We've never nailed down their print run in retail, as far as I know. But if they are at the pack stated rate (SP are 1:45 packs), that would add ~2K included in retail.

If they included them more frequently in retail... lets say at the exact same per pack rate of hobby (i.e., 1:432)... then maybe there are ~10k

So maybe the range is somewhere between 9k-17k?

Using the 1983 Red Autos (1:1022): 1022 * 25 print run * 75 subjects = 1,916,250 packs = 53,229 boxes = 4436 cases

Using the Clear parallels (1:1161): 1161 * 10 print run * 100 subjects = 1,161,000 = 32,250 boxes = 2688 cases

I would guess the actual hobby case production lies somewhere in the middle. As we've seen countless times, the odds Topps provides do not correlate with real-world results.

pewe · 04-22-2019, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Using the 1983 Red Autos (1:1022): 1022 * 25 print run * 75 subjects = 1,916,250 packs = 53,229 boxes = 4436 cases

Using the Clear parallels (1:1161): 1161 * 10 print run * 100 subjects = 1,161,000 = 32,250 boxes = 2688 cases

I would guess the actual hobby case production lies somewhere in the middle. As we've seen countless times, the odds Topps provides do not correlate with real-world results.

Those red autos are "25 or less"... normally I see in cases like that that the average is somewhere around 2/3 of the 25... if I take 2/3 of 4436 I get ~2900 cases... so those clear and it would check.

But of course I didn't go subject by subject in this specific case.

KhalDrogo · 04-22-2019, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

lets also remember that 20K is NOT A LOT of a Flagship RC

only Harper can rival that ... possibly ever, but certainly modern

Harper is the best comparison.

https://www.beckett.com/news/2012-to...61-variations/

PSA 10 price/total cards graded by PSA

Series 2 #661 (Batting SSP - way fewer than 1/case): $1000+/316 (graded pop is definitely lower as they screwed up many of these flips and labeled the foot up as "batting")
Series 2 #661 (Front Leg Up Factory Set): $50+/1064
Series 2 #661 (Screaming Retail Factory Set): $50+/1194

Update #US183 (Rookie Debut): $100+/2294
Update #US299 (ASG): $25+/555
Update #US299 (ASG w/ Chipper): $100+/39
Update #US299 (ASG in suit): $80+/54

Acuna Bat Down SP = Harper Batting SSP
Acuna Bat Up Factory = Harper Factory
Acuna Bat Up Update = Harper RD
Acuna Rookie Debut = Harper ASG

KhalDrogo · 04-22-2019, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

Those red autos are "25 or less"... normally I see in cases like that that the average is somewhere around 2/3 of the 25... if I take 2/3 of 4436 I get ~2900 cases... so those clear and it would check.

But of course I didn't go subject by subject in this specific case.

Didn't realize that. Thank you!

ThoseBackPages · 04-22-2019, 05:28 PM

and Acuna Bat Down is MUCH easier then Harper 661

Harper was never $20 raw

ninjacookies · 04-22-2019, 05:28 PM

Still kicking mice elf for not fetching more Ronnie's during his little 'end of the world' early season slump.

KhalDrogo · 04-22-2019, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

and Acuna Bat Down is MUCH easier then Harper 661

Harper was never $20 raw

Agree. The increased production of Bat Down vs Batting will be compensated for by Acuna's popularity compared to Harper in the long run

imbluestreak23 · 04-22-2019, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felada

Glad I held onto this and didn’t sell after release

mayne thats juicy

04-22-2019, 04:26 PM	#8836
Zauron Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 5,592	Do you guys think jumbo cases are wise investments? Or will these always be looked as the ugly step child compared to hobby cases? __________________ Champ Bailey Collector! Currently: 909/2602 hermanotarjeta: You've been BRIOSED!!!!!!!!!

04-22-2019, 04:36 PM	#8839
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,126 ThoseBackPages	lets also remember that 20K is NOT A LOT of a Flagship RC only Harper can rival that ... possibly ever, but certainly modern __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

04-22-2019, 05:28 PM	#8847
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,126 ThoseBackPages	and Acuna Bat Down is MUCH easier then Harper 661 Harper was never $20 raw __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

04-22-2019, 04:06 PM	#8826
EldoEsq Member Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: UP Upstate NY now! Posts: 1,466 roryladd Eldoesq	I find it shocking that the Walmart holiday cards are popular... I think this is the first time that any card from any of these sets has ever been popular ever... Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

04-22-2019, 04:11 PM	#8827
brios8 Member Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: South Padre Island, TX Posts: 6,992 brios8 brios8	And yet again the 2017 Bowman Chrome 1st keeps getting ignored.. Still $13-15 raw Should be at $30-40 raw if compared to the Update at $10

04-22-2019, 04:31 PM	#8837
marl1220 Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 9,791	I recently picked up some 2018 Heritage. Graded and ungraded. I see this being one of his cards that will jump soon.

04-22-2019, 05:28 PM	#8848
ninjacookies Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: All the girls see the (boi)/ Look at his flips / Look at his kards / All they say is (oh boi). Posts: 56,927	Still kicking mice elf for not fetching more Ronnie's during his little 'end of the world' early season slump.