2019-20 NT FOTL

[Tim]

Originally Posted by beavers

First auction for a single box just ended at $10,200. Not great, not terrible. As a seller I think BIN is the way currently.

yeah, dumb time to end an auction like this.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

I see these factors but if seems more subtle than that to me.

You have two completely different groups: breakers and holders.

The breakers dont care about EV, only that they can find enough addicts (not a pejorative term...I am also addicted to breaking) to pay for the gamble. Sadly, just like at a craps table, the people with the least money seem to be most drawn to the largest house edge bets.

The holders *should* care about EV in some sense, because it's a broad statistic that helps determine the value of their unopened product. When you say supply getting smaller and/or a shot at big cards, you're just elaborating on factors that get summarized into the EV of a box.

Now we know the EV of breaking a box is negative. I don't know exactly how negative but with some products (Prizm Choice is always my go-to disaster), it can be bafflingly low. Like, worse than scratch off tickets bad.

But the issue for holders of this product seems more tenuous to me because guys like Zion already seem to be priced as if they are HOF/all-time stars. It's not like baseball where we can wait 5-7 years before drawing conclusions, and in the meantime a guy who was unheralded at the time of release can be the next big thing. Kyle guy is never going to be Giannis. Jordan Bone is not going to be a star...we know these things already.

So to hold implies two risks that, to me, drive down the expected value of the product in the future. You have to both hope that 3 or 4 of the big chase cards are never seen (regardless of if they are pulled), and you have to hope that the 2 guys driving valuations continue on a perfect trajectory. If Ja turns out to be a 5-time all star and Zion is Anthony Davis, do we actually have more room for these RPAs to run?

If the standard Zion RPA in a world where his career matches the first 6 years of Anthony Davis is a $100,000 card, then ok, I guess I get it. It just feels like a hell of a parlay.

You finally nailed it in your last paragraph. Has nothing to do with breakers vs individuals. I mean, 2018 update bb is the only product where you don't expect to lose when breaking. As long as the possibility to hit something huge is there, people will open. And the sealed will be priced accordingly based on quality and quantity of what you can get. Wax has ALWAYS followed this trajectory - the only thing different is we are in the high high rent district now for one box.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Zion should not be as expensive (or more expensive) as/than Luka.

Luka should not be close to Giannis in price.

Giannis should not be close to LeBron in price.

LeBron should not be close to MJ in price.

And yet...Zion and Luka NT RPAs are way more expensive than Exquisite Jordan autos. I know, they are RCs, but still...it's MICHAEL JORDAN.

I agree with everything you said until the very end. MJ was a great player, he was the best. But at some point people that never watched him play like teenagers today they could probably care less about him. They want the stars of today not 2 or 3 decades ago. MJ means nothing to them but Zion, Giannis, and Luka does. They're relevant right now. And yeah RC do matter even though exquiste is one the best sets of all time. Not everyone just want to collect MJ or LeBron or Kobe. Sure it's probably a great investment but it could also be seen as boring if they're retired. Just different viewpoints that's all. Not everyone shares the same belief.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by Tim

You finally nailed it in your last paragraph. Has nothing to do with breakers vs individuals. I mean, 2018 update bb is the only product where you don't expect to lose when breaking. As long as the possibility to hit something huge is there, people will open. And the sealed will be priced accordingly based on quality and quantity of what you can get. Wax has ALWAYS followed this trajectory - the only thing different is we are in the high high rent district now for one box.

It just baffles me the magnitude. Not so much the raw sticker price (although I do get a good chuckle), but that the ROI on breaking is trending toward -80% on some products.

I'm not rooting against anyone but if Zion doesn't pan out, people are going to take 6-figure losses and that just baffles me. There is nowhere near that kind of upside unless we want to linearly extrapolate the last 5-6 years into the next 10, and that's foolish.

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan371

Lot of new blood entering the FOTL fun still I see...

It is unusual but is very common with Panini for the authorization to fall off your credit cards after FOTL purchase. The purchase will confirm and hit your card right before shipment. As long as you have an order receipt / email, you are good to go.

You are not getting a free box nor losing your order.

Definitely not new blood here either (over 200 fotl boxes bought since the initial 17-18 prizm release). But I have taken a couple months off and thought this issue might have been fixed, guess not!

[MattMiller]

Well my credit card is all back to right limit/line and no charges now from Panini, so the temp trans are gone as well. I wonder if they are backing out or will try to recharge the card at ship date? No fedex email yet either...

[MattMiller]

Ok, i called them and talked with a guy named eric ( i am surprised they answered) They are not shipping today. Warehouse had a covid scare and perhaps tomorrow. Will recharge all our cards again so hopefully none of us are not over the creidt limit now with other purchases

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I agree with everything you said until the very end. MJ was a great player, he was the best. But at some point people that never watched him play like teenagers today they could probably care less about him. They want the stars of today not 2 or 3 decades ago. MJ means nothing to them but Zion, Giannis, and Luka does. They're relevant right now. And yeah RC do matter even though exquiste is one the best sets of all time. Not everyone just want to collect MJ or LeBron or Kobe. Sure it's probably a great investment but it could also be seen as boring if they're retired. Just different viewpoints that's all. Not everyone shares the same belief.

MJ will always have Jordan Brand. Jordan Brand is more iconic than any other line of sneakers, and always will be. MJ cards in general will do nothing but go up over time. Especially if we can continue to make easy money on relatively common inserts and parallels of today’s stars.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by beavers

Every nightmare box that is opened increases the chances that the remaining boxes have the huge cards in them. Those cards are predicted to be in the $200k-$500k range.

LOL WUT.

Maybe the Zion Logoman gets 200k. Maybe, at best. You honestly have better odds with the 100-250k scratchoff tickets.

[adam711]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

LOL WUT.

Maybe the Zion Logoman gets 200k. Maybe, at best. You honestly have better odds with the 100-250k scratchoff tickets.

If the consensus is a regular Zion RPA is 100k, I'd have to think the logoman would be like 500k+.

With scratch tickets, your ROI is for sure better with all the $50-$500 winning tickets that will be recouped from $7500 tickets bought, but the odds are far worse to actually hit a 100k+ jackpot than NT.

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by adam711

If the consensus is a regular Zion RPA is 100k, I'd have to think the logoman would be like 500k+.

With scratch tickets, your ROI is for sure better with all the $50-$500 winning tickets that will be recouped from $7500 tickets bought, but the odds are far worse to actually hit a 100k+ jackpot than NT.

So disrespectful to the Luka NT RPA

Sidenote - I dye laughing on the ground like Charlie Murphy every time I hear an online breaker tell the room "hey guys...this is supposed to be fun and for entertainment".

[ksp6687]

Orders not being shipped til tomorrow now

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

MJ will always have Jordan Brand. Jordan Brand is more iconic than any other line of sneakers, and always will be. MJ cards in general will do nothing but go up over time. Especially if we can continue to make easy money on relatively common inserts and parallels of today’s stars.

Yeah I get that. My point was not everyone want's to collect just MJ or Kobe or LeBron. You see a lot of people saying buy a Jordan, Kobe, LeBron card instead of these newer cards. Personally I really don't have any interest in buying any of those guys. MJ will always be relevant because of his shoe brand but what Im saying is kids today don't know much about those older players besides youtube videos or a special on TV. Kind of like young adults today don't know how good Larry Bird was. He's already starting to be forgotten along with some of the other all-time greats. They will never be completely forgotten but we always think the guys we watched in our time were better than the ones before. It happens in every sport. You ask an old timer who was the greatest quarterback of all time and a lot of them will say Johnny Unitas. I don't know how good he was besides stories ive heard. I don't really remember a whole lot of Joe Montana's career either to be honest. Tom Brady is the greatest I've ever seen because ive grown up watching him play his entire career. People will do the same for this generation and every generation going forward. There's nothing wrong with buying HOFers it's a safe get I get that. But I also think there's nothing wrong with buying the guys who are playing right now either. It makes watching the games more exciting imo. I could buy a bunch of old cards but it's not quite as fun to me because their story has already been written.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

You see a lot of people saying buy a Jordan, Kobe, LeBron card instead of these newer cards. Personally I really don't have any interest in buying any of those guys.

This is the worst thing you've ever said!

But I definitely get it. It's the same reasoning why 2019 LeBron common inserts are worth more than a lot of decent RCs.

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by ksp6687

Orders not being shipped til tomorrow now

Yup just got the email now.

[tommyboiazn23]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Yeah exactly who knows anymore. Just remember a rising tide lifts all ships. So that means if Zion is selling for a bazillion dollars that just means everyone else will get a raise also. These things are reciprocal.

Yup on the bolded, even the bums are being not affordable, like jesus lmao

[Brian12215]

Looks like they’ll sell some of this Friday on panini but I can’t find the price point. Am I just missing it?

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Yeah I get that. My point was not everyone want's to collect just MJ or Kobe or LeBron. You see a lot of people saying buy a Jordan, Kobe, LeBron card instead of these newer cards. Personally I really don't have any interest in buying any of those guys. MJ will always be relevant because of his shoe brand but what Im saying is kids today don't know much about those older players besides youtube videos or a special on TV. Kind of like young adults today don't know how good Larry Bird was. He's already starting to be forgotten along with some of the other all-time greats. They will never be completely forgotten but we always think the guys we watched in our time were better than the ones before. It happens in every sport. You ask an old timer who was the greatest quarterback of all time and a lot of them will say Johnny Unitas. I don't know how good he was besides stories ive heard. I don't really remember a whole lot of Joe Montana's career either to be honest. Tom Brady is the greatest I've ever seen because ive grown up watching him play his entire career. People will do the same for this generation and every generation going forward. There's nothing wrong with buying HOFers it's a safe get I get that. But I also think there's nothing wrong with buying the guys who are playing right now either. It makes watching the games more exciting imo. I could buy a bunch of old cards but it's not quite as fun to me because their story has already been written.

I get that some people do not have any desire to collect certain guys, no matter how iconic or good they are/were. That's fine. Everyone has their preferences.

I was just saying it boggles the mind that a current player who has 0-1 years of experience can outsell a guy who has 6 rings, 5 MVP, etc...and transcended the sport.

All that to say: Basketball has been crazy this year.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I get that some people do not have any desire to collect certain guys, no matter how iconic or good they are/were. That's fine. Everyone has their preferences.

I was just saying it boggles the mind that a current player who has 0-1 years of experience can outsell a guy who has 6 rings, 5 MVP, etc...and transcended the sport.

All that to say: Basketball has been crazy this year.

That's the entire premise of prospecting. It's basic human psychology. The thrill and the rush of speculating on an unknown and seeing your projection either:

- crash and burn in your face
- bring you a fleet of lambos and infinite self-pats on the back

is like shooting heroin through a cardboard syringe.

Jordan, Kobe, and Lebron are respective GOATbois and all, but there's nothing fresh and exciting about them. They're 'comfortable' investments. We know who they are and always will be.

Same reason 40 year old Johnny Orthodontist cheats with the college intern even though solid, dependable wifey at home has been down since AOL dial-up.

[15ncounting]

crazy how they haven't sent out FOTL boxes. I received my hobby cases three days ago. But again, I live over seas so I usually get my cases a week in advance with a warning not to open until release date. Yes, My cases are already accounted for.

[ninjacookies]

First few Zions will probably get close to or eclipse 100k just based on the euphoria that follows any brand new flagship release.


Probably will settle in the high 5x to 7x range, depending on how these upcoming playoffs go.

True vertical RPA logoman is absolutely a 2xx- half million dollar card. Not justifying it, but that's almost a foregone conclusion.


BO was offering a 9xk bounty for the Tatum logoman years ago. Zion's rookie and pre rookie hype eclipses Tatum's 10 fold.

[Heroicdeck]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

First few Zions will probably get close to or eclipse 100k just based on the euphoria that follows any brand new flagship release.


Probably will settle in the high 5x to 7x range, depending on how these upcoming playoffs go.

True vertical RPA logoman is absolutely a 2xx- half million dollar card. Not justifying it, but that's almost a foregone conclusion.


BO was offering a 9xk bounty for the Tatum logoman years ago. Zion's rookie and pre rookie hype eclipses Tatum's 10 fold.

If the ceiling rises, everything else should follow suit. Personally I think Zion is Blake Griffin who can pass really well. He has had knee problems in highschool.
Will he be a hall of famer? Maybe? Will his values maintain? I don’t think so. For those values to maintain he has to be as successful as Lebron, MJ, Kobe, etc.

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

First few Zions will probably get close to or eclipse 100k just based on the euphoria that follows any brand new flagship release.


Probably will settle in the high 5x to 7x range, depending on how these upcoming playoffs go.

True vertical RPA logoman is absolutely a 2xx- half million dollar card. Not justifying it, but that's almost a foregone conclusion.


BO was offering a 9xk bounty for the Tatum logoman years ago. Zion's rookie and pre rookie hype eclipses Tatum's 10 fold.

Good point and true. I was one of the suckers buying 2017-18 NT FOTL personal boxes (I think I ripped 10-12 in total). Well that was before I found out about unsavory individuals selling their filtered boxes to the company I was breaking them from. But I digress...I guess your NT Fat Boi estimates would be accurate. We are seeing crazy stuff these days. For example look at what second year Luka Doncic parallels sell for on FleaBay. Insane times. Rooting for those that actually spent real money on personals to pull big.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Heroicdeck

If the ceiling rises, everything else should follow suit. Personally I think Zion is Blake Griffin who can pass really well. He has had knee problems in highschool.
Will he be a hall of famer? Maybe? Will his values maintain? I don’t think so. For those values to maintain he has to be as successful as Lebron, MJ, Kobe, etc.

I do not consider a knee bruise and knee contusion from bumping into players or onto the floor some sort of health related concerning issue. That happens to anyone and everyone that plays basketball at a high level. Especially bigbois whose role is to set a ton of screens. Yes, if he does have a second surgical procedure like D Rose, then I think it's time to become very concerned.

The Griffin mentions have followed him since high school. But I guess that's what happens when you can jump super duper high and dunk...people grasp for the easiest identifiable comparison. It's like Luka being Peja Stojakovic and Tatum being Tobias Harris. I think I'm doinitrite.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Good point and true. I was one of the suckers buying 2017-18 NT FOTL personal boxes (I think I ripped 10-12 in total). Well that was before I found out about unsavory individuals selling their filtered boxes to the company I was breaking them from. But I digress...I guess your NT Fat Boi estimates would be accurate. We are seeing crazy stuff these days. For example look at what second year Luka Doncic parallels sell for on FleaBay. Insane times. Rooting for those that actually spent real money on personals to pull big.

Mmhmm. Traditional rules got tossed out the window with College Contenders this year. The market gave us the warning signs early.

20-21 is going to be the biggest viagra come-down. Enjoy it while it lasts, bois.