@itsvegasdave “The Sports Card Market Will Collapse”

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I guess if Trout, Soto, Acuna, and Tatis all hit .220 ....

This was hypothetical, and it still made me nauseous

[wcardguy]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Well, this Fed has said they are going to let the economy run hot and has adopted Average Inflation Targeting. I don't see a way we don't have higher interest rates unless they wimp out.

I'd go further and say there's no way interest rates are rising in the near future. The US economy was mortally wounded in 2008 and we still haven't really recovered, we've just been buying time (literally) with extremely hot money.

[mmier118]

I think I've read most of this thread and I'm a little curious of "why is this time different from the last time sports cards exploded?" I can remember back in 1990 people were viewing them as investments, everything was flying off the shelf, Costco was selling out of pallets of cards. Cards were pretty much mainstream. Now instead of buying a block of 100 Gregg Jeffries, you buy 1 tatis gold refractor, but it's pretty much the same thing. Grading is a thing now and social media plays a part, but it seems weird that a card can sell for $50,000 in psa 10 and $30 in raw form that would most likely grade a 7. That is a weird investor thing that's going on and I don't think long term the investor money sticks around. I don't know if we are in the 1988 part of the card market or if it's closer to 1992, but I do think that once prices start to go down a lot of people will lose interest and prices will go down more. Kind of the opposite of right now, where since prices are going up people don't hesitate to spend the price of a nice used car on a sports card.

I hope the market can stay strong for many years, but I would love to hear why this is a structural change in cards to an investment vehicle like stocks vs. A cyclical change based on a lot of 40 year olds, with a lot of extra time and money due to covid. I personally think it's the later, but I think it's worth discussing because I am usually wrong lol.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by mmier118

I think I've read most of this thread and I'm a little curious of "why is this time different from the last time sports cards exploded?" I can remember back in 1990 people were viewing them as investments, everything was flying off the shelf, Costco was selling out of pallets of cards. Cards were pretty much mainstream. Now instead of buying a block of 100 Gregg Jeffries, you buy 1 tatis gold refractor, but it's pretty much the same thing. Grading is a thing now and social media plays a part, but it seems weird that a card can sell for $50,000 in psa 10 and $30 in raw form that would most likely grade a 7. That is a weird investor thing that's going on and I don't think long term the investor money sticks around. I don't know if we are in the 1988 part of the card market or if it's closer to 1992, but I do think that once prices start to go down a lot of people will lose interest and prices will go down more. Kind of the opposite of right now, where since prices are going up people don't hesitate to spend the price of a nice used car on a sports card.

I hope the market can stay strong for many years, but I would love to hear why this is a structural change in cards to an investment vehicle like stocks vs. A cyclical change based on a lot of 40 year olds, with a lot of extra time and money due to covid. I personally think it's the later, but I think it's worth discussing because I am usually wrong lol.

Difference now is the current rate of appreciation is unsustainable- worries investors. Almost better to have moderate, constant growth, which is sustainable ( unless you’re a flipper - then cards doubling every month or so is fantastic ) Back in the Jeffries days ( I was in the market ) things were hot for sure ~ Hot is healthy / on fire is not. ( what we have now )

I’m a collector, so no matter what, I’m not selling or worrying or ..... doing anything different. Most folks here though are not planning to keep 95% of what they buy for many years to come like me.... so they may have a different perspective. They may feel pressure to do deals now before things change - I don’t have that pressure

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by mmier118

I think I've read most of this thread and I'm a little curious of "why is this time different from the last time sports cards exploded?" I can remember back in 1990 people were viewing them as investments, everything was flying off the shelf, Costco was selling out of pallets of cards. Cards were pretty much mainstream. Now instead of buying a block of 100 Gregg Jeffries, you buy 1 tatis gold refractor, but it's pretty much the same thing. Grading is a thing now and social media plays a part, but it seems weird that a card can sell for $50,000 in psa 10 and $30 in raw form that would most likely grade a 7. That is a weird investor thing that's going on and I don't think long term the investor money sticks around. I don't know if we are in the 1988 part of the card market or if it's closer to 1992, but I do think that once prices start to go down a lot of people will lose interest and prices will go down more. Kind of the opposite of right now, where since prices are going up people don't hesitate to spend the price of a nice used car on a sports card.

I hope the market can stay strong for many years, but I would love to hear why this is a structural change in cards to an investment vehicle like stocks vs. A cyclical change based on a lot of 40 year olds, with a lot of extra time and money due to covid. I personally think it's the later, but I think it's worth discussing because I am usually wrong lol.

Buying 100 Greg Jeffries is very different than buying 1 Tatis Gold Refractor. Among other things, there's probably only 50 of the Tatis printed....

Which card(s) are $30 raw NM, but $50k in PSA10? I would like to know, so I could purchase some right now.

[ScooterMcRibs]

We'll only know in hindsight, but this feels more like 1981 (Dodgers win the World Series!) than 1988 or 1992. The big driver on the horizon is securitization of baseball cards and other collectables. I don't know whether it will happen in 1 year, 5 years or 10 years, but there will come a day where exchange traded baseball card funds exist and you can buy a piece of baseball card collections on the stock market. IMHO we've only touched the runway, there are still MILES AND MILES to go.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

The big driver on the horizon is securitization of baseball cards and other collectables. I don't know whether it will happen in 1 year, 5 years or 10 years, but there will come a day where exchange traded baseball card funds exist and you can buy a piece of baseball card collections on the stock market. IMHO we've only touched the runway, there are still MILES AND MILES to go.

Can you do this for artwork?

[mfw13]

The big thing right now is grading....people are paying HUGE premiums for "gem" graded cards (i.e. PSA 10/BGS 9.5), and that premium may very well shrink in the future.

If right now a PSA 10 is worth 20x a PSA 9, but ten years from now it's only worth 10x a PSA 9, you're probably going to lose a lot of money....

[JoeAdam]

36 pages...

[ThoseBackPages]

is it today?

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

is it today?

Nah..maybe tomorrow!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Nah..maybe tomorrow!

Thank You!

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

We'll only know in hindsight, but this feels more like 1981 (Dodgers win the World Series!) than 1988 or 1992. The big driver on the horizon is securitization of baseball cards and other collectables. I don't know whether it will happen in 1 year, 5 years or 10 years, but there will come a day where exchange traded baseball card funds exist and you can buy a piece of baseball card collections on the stock market. IMHO we've only touched the runway, there are still MILES AND MILES to go.

Is this before or after technology can recreate cards for us?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The big thing right now is grading....people are paying HUGE premiums for "gem" graded cards (i.e. PSA 10/BGS 9.5), and that premium may very well shrink in the future.

If right now a PSA 10 is worth 20x a PSA 9, but ten years from now it's only worth 10x a PSA 9, you're probably going to lose a lot of money....

While I take your meaning, its interesting that you’re shaping your point in terms of the number on the label...and not including the label’s associated population.

Condition is *supposed* to affect value when there is also a low population of cards in that condition.

How were people trained to disregard population counts of modern cards?

[Phoneboy]

Everyone needs to calm the F down. Joe has spoken.

[mmier118]

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

Which card(s) are $30 raw NM, but $50k in PSA10? I would like to know, so I could purchase some right now.

I was thinking a 1981 topps Magic Johnson, not baseball but that was the card I was thinking of

[pewe]

Originally Posted by mmier118

I was thinking a 1981 topps Magic Johnson, not baseball but that was the card I was thinking of

Feels like Griffey Jr ‘89 UD is on that path, too?

Many millions out there in raw near mint... but PSA 10 reaching $5k now...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Phoneboy]

Pewe, just wanted to thank you for your contributions here. Kind of a weird place to do it, but I have learned so much from following your thinking/pickups. Others that come to mind - Superman Brandon ( buy quality/sell quantity), TBP (US250= the true RC), Reggie, and Court who is all in on soccer now. There are numerous others. To those that I failed to mention, thank you as well.

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by mmier118

I was thinking a 1981 topps Magic Johnson, not baseball but that was the card I was thinking of

Don't remind me about that card. I passed on several 9s for $90 about 6 months ago.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Phoneboy

Pewe, just wanted to thank you for your contributions here. Kind of a weird place to do it, but I have learned so much from following your thinking/pickups. Others that come to mind - Superman Brandon ( buy quality/sell quantity), TBP (US250= the true RC), Reggie, and Court who is all in on soccer now. There are numerous others. To those that I failed to mention, thank you as well.

Haha! I appreciate the kind words. I’ve really enjoyed seeing your pickups - wish I could roll with the big boys you land


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Phoneboy]

Originally Posted by pewe

Haha! I appreciate the kind words. I’ve really enjoyed seeing your pickups - wish I could roll with the big boys you land


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don't know about that, but I was so inspired it made me start a thread of thanks. Thanks again....

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by wcardguy

I'd go further and say there's no way interest rates are rising in the near future. The US economy was mortally wounded in 2008 and we still haven't really recovered, we've just been buying time (literally) with extremely hot money.

Money hasn't been hot. That's why rates are low. People hold their dollars because money is ice cold. If the Fed is saying they are going to let the economy run hot, the economy will probably run hot. That will push rates up.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mmier118

I think I've read most of this thread and I'm a little curious of "why is this time different from the last time sports cards exploded?" I can remember back in 1990 people were viewing them as investments, everything was flying off the shelf, Costco was selling out of pallets of cards. Cards were pretty much mainstream. Now instead of buying a block of 100 Gregg Jeffries, you buy 1 tatis gold refractor, but it's pretty much the same thing. Grading is a thing now and social media plays a part, but it seems weird that a card can sell for $50,000 in psa 10 and $30 in raw form that would most likely grade a 7. That is a weird investor thing that's going on and I don't think long term the investor money sticks around. I don't know if we are in the 1988 part of the card market or if it's closer to 1992, but I do think that once prices start to go down a lot of people will lose interest and prices will go down more. Kind of the opposite of right now, where since prices are going up people don't hesitate to spend the price of a nice used car on a sports card.

I hope the market can stay strong for many years, but I would love to hear why this is a structural change in cards to an investment vehicle like stocks vs. A cyclical change based on a lot of 40 year olds, with a lot of extra time and money due to covid. I personally think it's the later, but I think it's worth discussing because I am usually wrong lol.

One big difference is eBay already exists so there's no shock coming of how much stuff is out there.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

We'll only know in hindsight, but this feels more like 1981 (Dodgers win the World Series!) than 1988 or 1992. The big driver on the horizon is securitization of baseball cards and other collectables. I don't know whether it will happen in 1 year, 5 years or 10 years, but there will come a day where exchange traded baseball card funds exist and you can buy a piece of baseball card collections on the stock market. IMHO we've only touched the runway, there are still MILES AND MILES to go.

This is already starting. There is a thread in this forum titled "Fractional Assets" or something like that.

[actionbryan]

If the card market crashed, first thing I’d do is cry but the second thing I’d do is pull up eBay and buy some sweet cards