Rolling 2021 Bowman Draft Autograph Checklist Thread

[oraclesports]

Originally Posted by smanzari

How rare are the Base Sparkle Refractors? I was given a lot by the LCS from others breaking and leaving and there's a Lawler in here. Seems only 1 sold for $227!? That just doesn't seem right though so was checking before pricing

wow people are silly for leaving those.

[jsatx]

Originally Posted by smanzari

How rare are the Base Sparkle Refractors? I was given a lot by the LCS from others breaking and leaving and there's a Lawler in here. Seems only 1 sold for $227!? That just doesn't seem right though so was checking before pricing

The odds on hobby and lite are the same for the sparkles and aqua lava so I would say a print run of 200 which is consistent with last year, unless they are different on super jumbos.

Speaking of super jumbo odds, can someone post those please, or point me to where I missed them?

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by jsatx

The odds on hobby and lite are the same for the sparkles and aqua lava so I would say a print run of 200 which is consistent with last year, unless they are different on super jumbos.

Speaking of super jumbo odds, can someone post those please, or point me to where I missed them?

Thanks- Appreciate the help! I wish I had checked Odds prior to leaving; I think that sale was a little high.

[oraclesports]

Originally Posted by smanzari

Thanks- Appreciate the help! I wish I had checked Odds prior to leaving; I think that sale was a little high.

to be honest I think that lawlar was put into that pile by accident, it is over a $100 card. Who leaves that behind?

[droctagon]

Got lucky with my 1st Edition 50 pack box


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[smanzari]

Originally Posted by oraclesports

to be honest I think that lawlar was put into that pile by accident, it is over a $100 card. Who leaves that behind?

There's others as well. I do not think this individual knows the new class well, yet

[dte421]

Had the Pirates today in a random team case break. It went, uh, well.



Not pictured is the Chandler refractor auto and the white aqua paper.


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[unclemonkey]

Originally Posted by dte421

It's pretty clear that the following guys are short-printed, or not in jumbo at all:

Andrew Painter
Anthony Solometo
Ethan Wilson
Harry Ford
Maddox Bruns
Ryan Cusick
Wes Kath

Wilson and Ford seem to have very limited base autos and color out there in jumbo, but the others do not have ANY base in jumbos; Kath and Bruns at least have color redemptions that have been found in jumbo... but Solometo, Painter, and Cusick do not have ANY prospect autos or redemptions in jumbo thus far; only insert auto redemptions.

So 7 out of 86 prospect auto spots were basically not put into Jumbos.

Thanks for the info

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by dte421

Had the Pirates today in a random team case break. It went, uh, well.



Not pictured is the Chandler refractor auto and the white aqua paper.


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Holy smokes

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[Chiwsox2005]

Originally Posted by jsatx

Speaking of super jumbo odds, can someone post those please, or point me to where I missed them?

Super jumbo odds ^^^


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[flappy]

Colton Cowser superfractor auto has now been pulled in a break. Came out of super jumbo case. That is all.

[jsatx]

Originally Posted by Chiwsox2005

Super jumbo odds ^^^


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Thank you. So I think I have print runs.
Using chrome orange non-auto at 1:147 packs and 96 packs per case I get 7,656 hobby cases. Using superfractor autos (the least likely to not be signed imo) and assuming there are 87 of them (maybe 84), we can back out super jumbo cases to get to 3,583. Using non-auto superfractor odds, we are left with about 25 non-auto superfractors in lite at 1:10,960 odds giving us 1,683 cases. That gives us a print run of about 673 per player for the B&W refractors and about 1,346 total autos from Lite. I think the checklist is still growing for those. The last I saw was 18. That gives us 75 autos per player. If that number gets to 25 signers we are at about 50 autos per player.

Check my math.
7,656 jumbo cases
3,583 super jumbo cases
1,683 lite cases
B&W refractors from lite cases have a print run of about 673
B&W autos from lite cases total 1,346 which gives us 50-75 autos per player depending one the number of signers.

For the overall base print runs per player I'm getting about 13k base refractors, 35k-40k base chrome, and 140k-150k base paper.

[slogue2]

Originally Posted by jsatx

Thank you. So I think I have print runs.
Using chrome orange non-auto at 1:147 packs and 96 packs per case I get 7,656 hobby cases. Using superfractor autos (the least likely to not be signed imo) and assuming there are 87 of them (maybe 84), we can back out super jumbo cases to get to 3,583. Using non-auto superfractor odds, we are left with about 25 non-auto superfractors in lite at 1:10,960 odds giving us 1,683 cases. That gives us a print run of about 673 per player for the B&W refractors and about 1,346 total autos from Lite. I think the checklist is still growing for those. The last I saw was 18. That gives us 75 autos per player. If that number gets to 25 signers we are at about 50 autos per player.

Check my math.
7,656 jumbo cases
3,583 super jumbo cases
1,683 lite cases
B&W refractors from lite cases have a print run of about 673
B&W autos from lite cases total 1,346 which gives us 50-75 autos per player depending one the number of signers.

For the overall base print runs per player I'm getting about 13k base refractors, 35k-40k base chrome, and 140k-150k base paper.

I love these math posts! Seriously, thank you for the breakdown.

[DaryanLenz]

Originally Posted by oraclesports

any house chrome color for trade

I pulled a house Gold.

[oraclesports]

Originally Posted by DaryanLenz

I pulled a house Gold.

If looking to trade dm me


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[andrewfsummers]

I think Painter and Kath are not actually available as prospect autos. For Branden Boissiere
and Dominic Hamel perhaps? Somehow hit both of those guys and not on checklist.

[trmpetyjo]

Supers and Reds all over the place this year. Seems like every other case has one or the other. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but it seems like we were lucky to see a red every twenty cases last year. A super every forty

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[cardozo]

Verzonden vanaf mijn iPhone met Tapatalk

[txrngr34]

Originally Posted by trmpetyjo

Supers and Reds all over the place this year. Seems like every other case has one or the other. Maybe I'm remembering wrong but it seems like we were lucky to see a red every twenty cases last year. A super every forty

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Well, there are 50% more reds this year with the red lava addition, if you're including that.

[ndwatso]

Originally Posted by jsatx

Thank you. So I think I have print runs.
Using chrome orange non-auto at 1:147 packs and 96 packs per case I get 7,656 hobby cases. Using superfractor autos (the least likely to not be signed imo) and assuming there are 87 of them (maybe 84), we can back out super jumbo cases to get to 3,583. Using non-auto superfractor odds, we are left with about 25 non-auto superfractors in lite at 1:10,960 odds giving us 1,683 cases. That gives us a print run of about 673 per player for the B&W refractors and about 1,346 total autos from Lite. I think the checklist is still growing for those. The last I saw was 18. That gives us 75 autos per player. If that number gets to 25 signers we are at about 50 autos per player.

Check my math.
7,656 jumbo cases
3,583 super jumbo cases
1,683 lite cases
B&W refractors from lite cases have a print run of about 673
B&W autos from lite cases total 1,346 which gives us 50-75 autos per player depending one the number of signers.

For the overall base print runs per player I'm getting about 13k base refractors, 35k-40k base chrome, and 140k-150k base paper.

You are missing Asia boxes....

[ndwatso]

Originally Posted by jsatx

The odds on hobby and lite are the same for the sparkles and aqua lava so I would say a print run of 200 which is consistent with last year, unless they are different on super jumbos.

Speaking of super jumbo odds, can someone post those please, or point me to where I missed them?

When I ran the super odds, there should be about 120ish supers in the Jumbo cases. That leaves 80 between LITE, Super, and Asia. LITE doesn't have prospect autos (outside of the special ones). There should be about 56 Superfractor Autos out of the 86(ish) in Jumbo cases, so there will be about 30 Superfractor Autos split between the Asia and the Supers. Not sure how to guess the production of those though.

SUPER AUTO in Asia: 11,568 per pack (5 packs in a box)

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by jsatx

Thank you. So I think I have print runs.
Using chrome orange non-auto at 1:147 packs and 96 packs per case I get 7,656 hobby cases. Using superfractor autos (the least likely to not be signed imo) and assuming there are 87 of them (maybe 84), we can back out super jumbo cases to get to 3,583. Using non-auto superfractor odds, we are left with about 25 non-auto superfractors in lite at 1:10,960 odds giving us 1,683 cases. That gives us a print run of about 673 per player for the B&W refractors and about 1,346 total autos from Lite. I think the checklist is still growing for those. The last I saw was 18. That gives us 75 autos per player. If that number gets to 25 signers we are at about 50 autos per player.

Check my math.
7,656 jumbo cases
3,583 super jumbo cases
1,683 lite cases
B&W refractors from lite cases have a print run of about 673
B&W autos from lite cases total 1,346 which gives us 50-75 autos per player depending one the number of signers.

For the overall base print runs per player I'm getting about 13k base refractors, 35k-40k base chrome, and 140k-150k base paper.

13,000 refractors?

[jsatx]

Originally Posted by ndwatso

When I ran the super odds, there should be about 120ish supers in the Jumbo cases. That leaves 80 between LITE, Super, and Asia. LITE doesn't have prospect autos (outside of the special ones). There should be about 56 Superfractor Autos out of the 86(ish) in Jumbo cases, so there will be about 30 Superfractor Autos split between the Asia and the Supers. Not sure how to guess the production of those though.

SUPER AUTO in Asia: 11,568 per pack (5 packs in a box)

Forgot about the Asia edition. You have to open 385k cards of Asia and 370k cards of SJ to get a super auto. Those are pretty close. As long as the non-auto super odds are somewhere around 1:6,000 in the Asia edition, I think the numbers are still pretty close for the Lite boxes. I am overestimating the number of SJ cases though. I don't see a way to split those from Asia.

[crpav]

I know it's early but anyone else see a big difference in guys more prevailant in jumbos compared to super jumbos? We Kath is still very sp as is Ford. Also Bruns of the Dodgers. But take my interest Sean Burke. Seemed to be loaded in jumbos but have seen nothing in super jumbos. I have seen the black wave 1/1 and I hit the plate auto from houdini. Of course have not seen big color of him like orange or any reds though so will see.

[droctagon]

Another one bites the dust


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