✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[imbluestreak23]

MVP baby!!!

[dodgerfanjohn]

NOT ELITE!!!

[imbluestreak23]

That hustle baby!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

That hustle baby!

That's got to be frightening for a pitcher. 6'4 220 coming in your direction with elite speed. Hard to blame him for dropping the ball.

[hammertime]

I had a good feeling about him facing Montas...and the Halos get the dub...you love to see it!

Ok now I'm going to bed.

[seanrs1]

Anyone else on here surprised that Ohtani's card prices (at least low and mid end) have not recovered from last season's highs? Considering that he is having another MVP worthy season I would have thought his card prices would be up a least a little from last year. I am not really complaining as I am a collector and keep on buying the cards I like when I find a fair price (for instance was able to buy a raw chrome xfractor that I recently posted for like $100 less than the raw one I bought last year).

What have others on this board observed? Is it just that his card prices went up too much last year and have corrected this year? Or that the baseball card market in general has corrected? Interested in everyone's thoughts! Where do you see prices heading assuming he keeps his impressive performance up?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Anyone else on here surprised that Ohtani's card prices (at least low and mid end) have not recovered from last season's highs? Considering that he is having another MVP worthy season I would have thought his card prices would be up a least a little from last year. I am not really complaining as I am a collector and keep on buying the cards I like when I find a fair price (for instance was able to buy a raw chrome xfractor that I recently posted for like $100 less than the raw one I bought last year).

What have others on this board observed? Is it just that his card prices went up too much last year and have corrected this year? Or that the baseball card market in general has corrected? Interested in everyone's thoughts! Where do you see prices heading assuming he keeps his impressive performance up?

There was a lot of what people called "euphoric purchasing" last year with Ohtani breaking barriers every single time he stepped on the field. Batting is also more highlight reel friendly and that value has inversed this year. Overall, it's not surprising at all and I think the market is consolidating a bit while more and more rare RCs meet permanent PC homes and strong-hand owners.

Growth isn't linear and if he keeps this pace up, you can expect a gradual climb that will eventually surpass 2021 highs. Once he starts seeing WAR in the 40s (closer to HoF numbers), you will see an even steeper climb.

At the end of the day, desirable and rare RC stuff (PR <500) for good sets (Flagship, Chrome, Bowman, Heritage) is hard to find at this point. That's a great sign.

[imbluestreak23]

(If Healthy)

One of the safest long term buys in the hobby of a current star IMO

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

(If Healthy)

One of the safest long term buys in the hobby of a current star IMO

Agree!

[seanrs1]

Clearly I agree that Ohtani is the best long term player to collect right now (he is my number 1 PC guy)! I totally get high print run/base cards being off last year's high (flagship, chrome, bowman etc..), I am just perplexed by the prices of SP cards (with print runs generally between 1k and 3k) like chrome refractors, flagship gold, image variations, rainbow foil etc selling for less (sometime by a significant margin) than last year's prices.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Clearly I agree that Ohtani is the best long term player to collect right now (he is my number 1 PC guy)! I totally get high print run/base cards being off last year's high (flagship, chrome, bowman etc..), I am just perplexed by the prices of SP cards (with print runs generally between 1k and 3k) like chrome refractors, flagship gold, image variations, rainbow foil etc selling for less (sometime by a significant margin) than last year's prices.

One thousand copies of a card is a lot. Your senses are just blunted from card manufacturers running the presses over the last few years. Even the 2001 UD Future Watch Rookies /1250 are still not too difficult to find 21 years later.

[seanrs1]

I agree that 1k to 3k is not an insignificant amount. But I am also assuming there are thousands of Ohtani collectors/investors in the world (more demand than supply). These SP cards can be bought cheaper this year than last and also seem to sell for less than other star players like Soto and Acuna.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I agree that 1k to 3k is not an insignificant amount. But I am also assuming there are thousands of Ohtani collectors/investors in the world (more demand than supply). These SP cards can be bought cheaper this year than last and also seem to sell for less than other star players like Soto and Acuna.

Well.. The SSP cards are doing just fine (1.5K+ for US1 Batting/Pitching gem, $2K+ for 700 Hand on Helmet gem), which tells me it is likely rarity at play.. Not like the warm-up jersey and with-bat SPs are ugly.

There may be hundreds of thousands of Ohtani fans out there, but probably only a few hundred nutty card collectors. They care about the creme de la creme.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Well.. The SSP cards are doing just fine (1.5K+ for US1 Batting/Pitching gem, $2K+ for 700 Hand on Helmet gem), which tells me it is likely rarity at play.. Not like the warm-up jersey and with-bat SPs are ugly.

There may be hundreds of thousands of Ohtani fans out there, but probably only a few hundred nutty card collectors. They care about the creme de la creme.

I am definitely not a nutty collector (or hard core collector/super collector), but I have collected a lot of Ohtani cards (mainly low to mid end). How many regular collectors do you think are out there?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am definitely not a nutty collector (or hard core collector/super collector), but I have collected a lot of Ohtani cards (mainly low to mid end). How many regular collectors do you think are out there?

I can only account for myself, but I know a few wealthy people that own exactly 3-4 baseball cards that happen to be all high-end Ohtani (Bowman Pitching Orange Autos+) and have zero interest in selling with intention to pass them onto their kids. They own one or more Tesla Model Ys and are not interested in any Ohtani cards that aren't super high-end. Quality over quantity. Yes, they are Asian American.

Ohtani simply has a different high-end collector base than the Latin players.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I agree that 1k to 3k is not an insignificant amount. But I am also assuming there are thousands of Ohtani collectors/investors in the world (more demand than supply). These SP cards can be bought cheaper this year than last and also seem to sell for less than other star players like Soto and Acuna.

Acuna and Soto make more sense to people than Ohtani I think. They can envision what their career paths may look like. Ohtani is more of a mystery, and people are skeptical or just can't even imagine how long he'll be able to keep doing what he's doing, which I think makes people hesitant.

Also, I think the narrative last year was very simple and easy for people to digest. The guy with the most home runs is a pitcher! That's nuts! He's hitting quite well this year and pitching even better but it's not as snappy of a headline. And there's the new and shiny factor. And the card market overall is down from where it was last year. I think Trueblue is dead on with his predictions of future growth. For now I'm happy to keep adding things I can afford to my collection and enjoying the Sho!

[ThoseBackPages]

Here's the thing (for me) with Ohtani.

Right now, i have him at #3 All Time Well Known Asian Baseball Player list

Oh
Ichiro
Ohtani


Soto, Acuna, etc. will never "beat" Roberto Clemente on the Latin list, nevermind Pujols

[Giroux]

[HunterConnorMom]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am definitely not a nutty collector (or hard core collector/super collector), but I have collected a lot of Ohtani cards (mainly low to mid end). How many regular collectors do you think are out there?

Before his breakout season last year, you could get the pitching US1 raw for $90-100. Now you can’t even find them raw. Miss those days when you could just scan eBay and pick-up a nice Ohtani rookie card for a few hundred. Now it’s the same cards trying to be flipped mostly by eBay multiple times or alt to eBay or holding to eBay etc. When I heard Sasha T tell his Ohtani bowman gold auto batting flip story on pwcc marketplace, knew good deals were over lol.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Anyone else on here surprised that Ohtani's card prices (at least low and mid end) have not recovered from last season's highs?

No because peaks are generated on hype combined with the whole card market being down. The Ohtani hype leading up to the all-star break was way above any buzz he's had this season. If Aaron Judge didn't exist this season and the Angels were in the playoff hunt, maybe you get close, but I still think it's silly to judge against a 2-3 week peak as "how can we get back to that". That kind of short term burst is when you'll get true irrational exuberance.

[Robles Fan]

On the topic of current Ohtani RC prices, I've found this to be one of the most depressing of recent sales:





I swear the 2018 Topps 3D Ohtani's were originally going for around that much shortly after release. Now, it's as if nothing's changed despite his great accomplishments while all of his other cards have gone up at least some bit. I'd have to consider this to be his most underappreciated rookie card.

[ThoseBackPages]

3D is a tough sell in a 2D internet world

[BBases31]

Did anyone here win that Black 9.5 for $1200? Such a steal, completely forgot about it

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Did anyone here win that Black 9.5 for $1200? Such a steal, completely forgot about it

Pretty sure the reserve wasn't met and it didn't sell. Reserve auctions are an automatic no-bid for me.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Pretty sure the reserve wasn't met and it didn't sell. Reserve auctions are an automatic no-bid for me.

Yep forgot about that. I bid on it earlier in the week and it was a reserve auction