**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[Rowdy1854]

Hit this bad boy last night

[TSonn]

I'm surprised that SGC 10 Blue Phoenix is still sitting there. #@#@#@#@ on SGC all you want, they might be the stingiest graders so that SGC 10 could transition to a PSA 10 pretty easily.

[dgbarnes]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

This isn’t the wrong sentiment but as it’s been stated, the rare stuff doesn’t sell through enough to gain traction.

People see eBay completed sales of $8K+ on a Silver, everybody raises their price, and that’s the new “going rate”.

With something that has no completed sales history (rare stuff) fewer want to take the leap of faith.

Nobody wants to be the dummy who gets caught holding the bag. As long as someone can justify that others will buy that card at “x” price, they will also be more willing to buy the card at “x” price.

This is a great perspective to have. Historically the "collectors" have always coveted the rare/numbered stuff. But, the market is changing, mostly because of newcomers who'd like to easily understand which cards they should invest in, and the Luka Prizm rookie is already iconic in that way.

[yoyosh]

Originally Posted by Rowdy1854

Hit this bad boy last night

NICE, congrats!!
I hit the gold parallel in a break, can't wait to get in hand

[sc29650]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

This isn’t the wrong sentiment but as it’s been stated, the rare stuff doesn’t sell through enough to gain traction.

People see eBay completed sales of $8K+ on a Silver, everybody raises their price, and that’s the new “going rate”.

With something that has no completed sales history (rare stuff) fewer want to take the leap of faith.

Nobody wants to be the dummy who gets caught holding the bag. As long as someone can justify that others will buy that card at “x” price, they will also be more willing to buy the card at “x” price.

You are exactly right from a short term prospective.
. But with the volume of these sales the price manipulation is fantastic. Think about it. If you are sitting on 100 Base PSA 10s, you can simply buy more at a increased price to cause an upswing and then start unloading at a higher price. This is happening everyday with the highly liquid cards. There will come a point where this game gets harder to play because the vast majority will not afford the card and then the rarer stuff catches up. Don't get me wrong, I'm looking at this from a LONG TERM rather than short term approach. On the short term, flipping base cards is easy money. Luka is making everyone money but I'm just saying that from a % return, other Luka is gaining at a higher rate than Prizm.

[PLB9eight]

This is all good info. This is what I was looking for. I appreciate the feedback. I like the more rare numbered type stuff as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jdan67]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Haha true - I bought Optic Holos and Select Silvers last summer instead of Prizm Silvers because of PR. In the end, they are all skyrocketing so it doesn't really matter much - but it is crazy how high the Prizm Silver is getting.

The pitch for Silver's used to be they were easily liquid due to price..now the price is as high has Luka's former high end. Can you imagine that a year ago you could pickup a Luka NT RPA raw for the same price as a Luka Silver is now? Take that in to perspective. Massive dislocations going on and I have a feeling his RPA/High End market is about to catch up in a big way. Check on the Crown Royale that's ending tonight.

[Spacemanspif]

agree with a lot of this sentiment. the bass Prizm revolution is completely stupid and I hope nobody here is still buying at this point. I unloaded most of mine too early because it was expendable to me and I know it'll always be available. Unfortunately all the #'d autos I have aren't moving because everyone is holding and moron buyers point to a comp 6 weeks ago and want that price. I have an idea marinating for a model to project what a card price should be based on comparable % increases in other high-volume products. unfortunately the market is what it is and the sheeple will stick to their grilled slabs of bass

[sc29650]

Originally Posted by Jdan67

The pitch for Silver's used to be they were easily liquid due to price..now the price is as high has Luka's former high end. Can you imagine that a year ago you could pickup a Luka NT RPA raw for the same price as a Luka Silver is now? Take that in to perspective. Massive dislocations going on and I have a feeling his RPA/High End market is about to catch up in a big way. Check on the Crown Royale that's ending tonight.

One Prizm Base hit $1000 others were pulling up fast. Optic now eclipsing $1000, following quickly by Revolution. Will be a matter of time before we see Chronicles base #71 with a PSA 10 pop of under 400 eclipse $1000 (5 X increase). I'm not saying its right, but people holding the underappreciated Chronicles Slabs will see a larger return % wise than Prizm in the next 12 months. In all honesty do you really think Base Prizm PSA will hit $10,000 (5X increase) before Chronicles base 71 hits 1k?

[WalterAZ31]

remember when many here were crying and complaining about too many Doncic silvers were popping up all over the place, how apparently it was "easy" to pull them, and values would tank

good times

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by sc29650

You are exactly right from a short term prospective.
. But with the volume of these sales the price manipulation is fantastic. Think about it. If you are sitting on 100 Base PSA 10s, you can simply buy more at a increased price to cause an upswing and then start unloading at a higher price. This is happening everyday with the highly liquid cards. There will come a point where this game gets harder to play because the vast majority will not afford the card and then the rarer stuff catches up. Don't get me wrong, I'm looking at this from a LONG TERM rather than short term approach. On the short term, flipping base cards is easy money. Luka is making everyone money but I'm just saying that from a 100% return, other Luka is gaining at a higher rate than Prizm.

Like I said I agree with the sentiment.

I own no bass Prizms or even silver Prizms. I just don’t care to own stuff that I can buy whenever I please. That’s not fun for me.

That said, the liquidity on Prizm cards (or Chrome) provides the cost basis for all other cards.

If the Luka Prizm goes down, its likely that the rare stuff follows. Not that those cards aren’t more “valuable”, just that it will be even harder to justify the values.

Forget Luka, this is just speaking about cards in general.

If I see a Lebron 2019/20 Prizm Silver PSA 10 going for $1500 or whatever amount, in my head I can pretty much justify any price for his rare stuff. His BGS 9 NT Base sold for half that price. I can easily justify the NT price because his “common” silver is worth twice that. I wouldn’t bat an eye paying $750 for an NT /99 when that’s 7 raw Lebron Prizm Bass.

That said, when I’m selling rare stuff without any “comps” it’s very tough to get someone to see the valuation the same as I do.

Blue Phoenix Luka > Silver Prizm in my eyes. How much? The answer will vary from person to person. As someone who likes rare cards I’ll likely value it more and no agreement will be made.

The liquidity in these common cards is so easy anybody can mess around with them and sell them at any moment. Just check eBay for most recent sales and price accordingly. The rare stuff not so much. Not only that the rare stuff basically wipes out 90% of the current buyers as they:

-Don’t know about rare cards
-Don’t care about rare cards

Now my buying pool is infinitely smaller and I’m really going to have to hammer out a deal to move the rare stuff. It just becomes a tougher process.

[sc29650]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Like I said I agree with the sentiment.

I own no bass Prizms or even silver Prizms. I just don’t care to own stuff that I can buy whenever I please. That’s not fun for me.

That said, the liquidity on Prizm cards (or Chrome) provides the cost basis for all other cards.

If the Luka Prizm goes down, its likely that the rare stuff follows. Not that those cards aren’t more “valuable”, just that it will be even harder to justify the values.

Forget Luka, this is just speaking about cards in general.

If I see a Lebron 2019/20 Prizm Silver PSA 10 going for $1500 or whatever amount, in my head I can pretty much justify any price for his rare stuff. His BGS 9 NT Base sold for half that price. I can easily justify the NT price because his “common” silver is worth twice that. I wouldn’t bat an eye paying $750 for an NT /99 when that’s 7 raw Lebron Prizm Bass.

That said, when I’m selling rare stuff without any “comps” it’s very tough to get someone to see the valuation the same as I do.

Blue Phoenix Luka > Silver Prizm in my eyes. How much? The answer will vary from person to person. As someone who likes rare cards I’ll likely value it more and no agreement will be made.

The liquidity in these common cards is so easy anybody can mess around with them and sell them at any moment. Just check eBay for most recent sales and price accordingly. The rare stuff not so much. Not only that the rare stuff basically wipes out 90% of the current buyers as they:

-Don’t know about rare cards
-Don’t care about rare cards

Now my buying pool is infinitely smaller and I’m really going to have to hammer out a deal to move the rare stuff. It just becomes a tougher process.

Truth

[beavers]

I feel lucky that I couldn’t justify spending what prizm silvers cost so instead I acquired unloved raw numbered cards and the cheapest autos (crown royale). Now I have 50+ numbered raw Luka RC’s and only 1 silver prizm (pack pulled). That mindset has carried forward and I am now acquiring numbered 2nd year stuff as rapidly as possible.

[slum22]

Originally Posted by GoNYGoNYGo

I'm glad my mailman came early today I was getting very impatient knowing this was waiting for me in the mail.

Awesome card. Congrats Will!

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

This isn’t the wrong sentiment but as it’s been stated, the rare stuff doesn’t sell through enough to gain traction.

People see eBay completed sales of $8K+ on a Silver, everybody raises their price, and that’s the new “going rate”.

With something that has no completed sales history (rare stuff) fewer want to take the leap of faith.

Nobody wants to be the dummy who gets caught holding the bag. As long as someone can justify that others will buy that card at “x” price, they will also be more willing to buy the card at “x” price.

Excellent post here. A lot of truth in how psychology plays a part in the seemingly nonsensical price increases of base cards.

Originally Posted by sc29650

You are exactly right from a short term prospective.
. But with the volume of these sales the price manipulation is fantastic. Think about it. If you are sitting on 100 Base PSA 10s, you can simply buy more at a increased price to cause an upswing and then start unloading at a higher price. This is happening everyday with the highly liquid cards. There will come a point where this game gets harder to play because the vast majority will not afford the card and then the rarer stuff catches up. Don't get me wrong, I'm looking at this from a LONG TERM rather than short term approach. On the short term, flipping base cards is easy money. Luka is making everyone money but I'm just saying that from a % return, other Luka is gaining at a higher rate than Prizm.

And this is an excellent synopsis at how easily the same base cards can be manipulated.

Some excellent posts being dropped today!

[Bootshine]

I would definitely go for the numbered prizms. If/when the bubble pops, all the "new money" and sneakerheads who bought tons of PSA 10 Base cards are in for a shock, when they realize they were all selling to each other or at least highly depended on each other to sustain that segment of the market. I do not believe that it is the people here on the forums who are supporting a market for ~$2k, PSA 10 Base cards.

[RogerGodahell]

No Luka, Porzingis, Finney-Smith today against UTA.

[OJMayo32]

Dang Doncic Prizm PSA 9 base rc almost $700 each.

[RogerGodahell]

It's too bad they couldn't have won at least one more of those close games. They pretty much need a miracle now and win all 3 of their remaining games and UTA or OKC to lose all of theirs to move up in the standings. I would have liked to see them face any other team in the playoffs besides the Clippers. Worst matchup possible for the Mavs. I think they would have a shot vs anyone else.

[Bootshine]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

It's too bad they couldn't have won at least one more of those close games. They pretty much need a miracle now and win all 3 of their remaining games and UTA or OKC to lose all of theirs to move up in the standings. I would have liked to see them face any other team in the playoffs besides the Clippers. Worst matchup possible for the Mavs. I think they would have a shot vs anyone else.

Is it actually still mathematically possible to avoid the Clippers? Man, I hope so.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by Bootshine

Is it actually still mathematically possible to avoid the Clippers? Man, I hope so.

The only other thing that could happen is DEN takes the #2 seed and swaps places with the Clippers. DEN is 1 game behind Clippers in the standings.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by slum22

Awesome card. Congrats Will!



Excellent post here. A lot of truth in how psychology plays a part in the seemingly nonsensical price increases of base cards.



And this is an excellent synopsis at how easily the same base cards can be manipulated.

Some excellent posts being dropped today!

These cards area all driven by speculation and how much I can get out of the card TOMORROW. $8,000+ for a Luka Silver is objectively stupid. It's just a horrendous way to spend $8K UNLESS I can pass the buck for $10K, then it's not a bad idea whatsoever. The buck will likely be passed.

Take it a step further. The Lebron for $1.8M is beyond a dumb buy. It's a horrendous way to spend $1.8M UNLESS you can extract value at that point. The value in paying $1.8M is that I can sell shares of the card and let people speculate on the future value at a lower cost. I can extract my capital for the card as I trade shares of said card. It becomes less about the card itself and more about the numerical ticker (Rally does this already).

We have tons of new blood (and honestly smarter blood) than the hobby had in the past. Lots of angel investor, venture capital type blood that will monetize these cards in the near future in a way that we haven't really seen. They don't care the price they buy the card (asset) at because they're going to divy it up into smaller bite size shares and let the hobby trade shares anyway.

Step 1: Buy 100 Luka Silvers at whatever price
Step 2: Offer shares of the lot of 100 Luka Silvers @ current price

Step 2 is where the buy price doesn't matter. I've been buying these Silvers from $2K-$12K so my cost basis is somewhere well below the current "market". When I truly turn these into commodities my valuation is based on the high-end price paid.

Step 3: Allow the speculators to drive up the cost.

Say I have a value of $1.2M on my 100 Luka Silvers. I sell shares of that price and allow people to trade the shares. I keep my shares of the cards (I've already made money at this point) and allow 10,000 people who bought the shares in my Silver stash for $120 per ($1.20 per Silver) to run wild. When the cost of the shares runs up to $150-$200, I make 25% (on top the profit I made off the IPO) and retain the cards.

This is the future of "selling/trading" cards. This is a large part of what is happening. Rally, Collectable, whatever it is Leore and darscards are doing.

The prices paid are irrelevant and should continue to go up. They're not chasing the Blue Phoenix either, mind you. Not liquid enough for the ultimate goal of the commoditization these cards.

[GoNYGoNYGo]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

It's too bad they couldn't have won at least one more of those close games. They pretty much need a miracle now and win all 3 of their remaining games and UTA or OKC to lose all of theirs to move up in the standings. I would have liked to see them face any other team in the playoffs besides the Clippers. Worst matchup possible for the Mavs. I think they would have a shot vs anyone else.

Denver is only a game behind the Clippers and they still play each other again. If Nuggets beat the Lakers tonight it could get very interesting.

[Bootshine]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

The only other thing that could happen is DEN takes the #2 seed and swaps places with the Clippers. DEN is 1 game behind Clippers in the standings.

DEN with Lakers tonight, then the Clippers and then finally the Raptors. Not an easy road but the opportunity is there to directly hurt the Clippers by beating them.

[sc29650]

If you're Denver who would you rather play in the first round Dallas or Utah?

[PK Dallas]

Is the only Phoenix of interest the blue Bc of team colors? There’s a pink and purple out there as well at lower numbered copies. Thoughts? This card wasn’t even on my radar until recent. From a price point I don’t know the best next Luka comp but it seems to me a great buy for a numbered RC away. Better ideas to spend that money on for someone who already has a Silver and Holo as my “higher” end Lukas...