2022 Topps Chrome Update Sapphire--This Could Be the Product of the Year? (2022/2023) - Page 41

hermanotarjeta · 01-16-2023, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

What's the green numbered to?

/99 Parallel.

hermanotarjeta · 01-16-2023, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

$150 on the Julio and the auction hasn't even been live yet for 30 minutes.

Easily one-thousand-donners!

zworykin · 01-16-2023, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

/99 Parallel.

Do you KNOW this, or are you assuming it (like I was) based on the product page? Because the pack odds of 1:13 for gold (/50) and 1:9 for green suggest it might be /75 after all. (By that I mean that if it's actually /99, the pack odds are way screwed up.)

Trying to figure out print run possibilities...

Buzz · 01-16-2023, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

Cards in Topps Chrome Update (200 of them) already got a superfractor card with this image. Those cards get a papa instead.

Cards that were not in Topps Chrome Update (130 of them) get a superfractor, but no papa.

Note that the ratio of 200:130 is basically a perfect match to the ratio of the pack odds (1,598:1,039).

thanks for the info, the total box calc matches up now.

longbomberz · 01-16-2023, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Green... SEATTLE!... RC LOGO!!!!!!.... kirby

Thankfully I peeled from the top and not the bottom or else I may have had a coronary and never been able to share the odds.

Buzz · 01-16-2023, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

Do you KNOW this, or are you assuming it (like I was) based on the product page? Because the pack odds of 1:13 for gold (/50) and 1:9 for green suggest it might be /75 after all. (By that I mean that if it's actually /99, the pack odds are way screwed up.)

Trying to figure out print run possibilities...

Can't figure out why the autograph box odds are off

zworykin · 01-16-2023, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz

thanks for the info, the total box calc matches up now.

You ending up at 27,390 (assuming all boxes have ONLY 2 color)?

Edit: ha, yes, looks like you are.

My two working theories for auto odds are (a) they're screwed up, or (b) Topps didn't pack out all the autos. 27,390 boxes would be just shy of 220k packs, allowing 11 of the 14 supers to be packed out at 1:20k odds (rounding errors/fuzz around the edges on pack odds, as always), for example.

longbomberz · 01-16-2023, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

Do you KNOW this, or are you assuming it (like I was) based on the product page? Because the pack odds of 1:13 for gold (/50) and 1:9 for green suggest it might be /75 after all. (By that I mean that if it's actually /99, the pack odds are way screwed up.)

Trying to figure out print run possibilities...

To your point, my greens are /75. The oranges are /25.

zworykin · 01-16-2023, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by longbomberz

To your point, my greens are /75. The oranges are /25.

Awesome, appreciate the confirmation!

theshowandme · 01-16-2023, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

You ending up at 27,390 (assuming all boxes have ONLY 2 color)?

Edit: ha, yes, looks like you are.

My two working theories for auto odds are (a) they're screwed up, or (b) Topps didn't pack out all the supers. 27,390 boxes would be just shy of 220k packs, allowing 11 of the 14 to be packed out at 1:20k odds (rounding errors/fuzz around the edges on pack odds, as always).

Silver packs incoming

zworykin · 01-16-2023, 07:31 PM

So just to put it back into one comment - the color parallel pack odds suggest 27,390 boxes while the auto pack odds suggest ~35,750 boxes.

Food for thought - if you recalculate off the autos assuming an 11-card checklist instead of 14, you get ~28,090...

hermanotarjeta · 01-16-2023, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

Do you KNOW this, or are you assuming it (like I was) based on the product page? Because the pack odds of 1:13 for gold (/50) and 1:9 for green suggest it might be /75 after all. (By that I mean that if it's actually /99, the pack odds are way screwed up.)

Trying to figure out print run possibilities...

My bad, just going by the sell sheet.

So base card print runs are still double TCS.

glassofwater · 01-16-2023, 07:35 PM

If autos have supers it’s using a new variation picture not found in tcu. Maybe they use the tcs image foe the auto lol

theshowandme · 01-16-2023, 07:36 PM

So are we getting silver packs?

cj828282 · 01-16-2023, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

So just to put it back into one comment - the color parallel pack odds suggest 27,390 boxes while the auto pack odds suggest ~35,750 boxes.

Food for thought - if you recalculate off the autos assuming an 11-card checklist instead of 14, you get ~28,090...

If you take out the /25 and /10 autos of the top three it comes close to 28,000.

KhalDrogo · 01-16-2023, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj828282

If you take out the /25 and /10 autos of the top three it comes close to 28,000.

I was going to suggest something like this. It's most likely that not all subjects have all autos.

2 parallels per box gives a PR of 26,565 boxes. So the parallel odds reflect the true production rather than the auto odds.

zworykin · 01-16-2023, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj828282

If you take out the /25 and /10 autos of the top three it comes close to 28,000.

Yes, but you'd still have totally wonky /5 and 1/1 odds. You have to take 3 out of every parallel for the odds to make sense.

LVDan · 01-16-2023, 07:53 PM

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Pacmeyer · 01-16-2023, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Silver packs incoming

my bet is on $5 Fancash

Buzz · 01-16-2023, 07:57 PM

How does Topps determine which orders get shipped first?
I ordered my boxes in the first 5 minutes, my buddy ordered 15-20 minutes afterwards.
His shipped today, mine hasn't.

Funkster · 01-16-2023, 07:57 PM

Long, I’d say you did quite well on your two boxes.

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oddstuff · 01-16-2023, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz

How does Topps determine which orders get shipped first?
I ordered my boxes in the first 5 minutes, my buddy ordered 15-20 minutes afterwards.
His shipped today, mine hasn't.

Both order used free shipping? # of boxes of each order?

glassofwater · 01-16-2023, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz

How does Topps determine which orders get shipped first?
I ordered my boxes in the first 5 minutes, my buddy ordered 15-20 minutes afterwards.
His shipped today, mine hasn't.

As many have noticed the cheapest shipping option “free”always get processed first. Before 2nd and overnight

Buzz · 01-16-2023, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oddstuff

Both order used free shipping? # of boxes of each order?

Me - 10, 1 Up from free
Friend - 6, 1 Up from free

KhalDrogo · 01-16-2023, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zworykin

Yes, but you'd still have totally wonky /5 and 1/1 odds. You have to take 3 out of every parallel for the odds to make sense.

Correct. But they could hold back a few as high end replacements.

01-16-2023, 07:53 PM	#1018
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,552	Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ So we cheated and we lied and we tested. And we never failed to fail; it was the easiest thing to do.

01-16-2023, 07:31 PM	#1011
zworykin Member Join Date: Aug 2021 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 6,069 zworykin2	So just to put it back into one comment - the color parallel pack odds suggest 27,390 boxes while the auto pack odds suggest ~35,750 boxes. Food for thought - if you recalculate off the autos assuming an 11-card checklist instead of 14, you get ~28,090...

01-16-2023, 07:35 PM	#1013
glassofwater Member Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 3,624	If autos have supers it’s using a new variation picture not found in tcu. Maybe they use the tcs image foe the auto lol

01-16-2023, 07:36 PM	#1014
theshowandme Member Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 5,037 theshowandme nova_cards	So are we getting silver packs?

01-16-2023, 07:57 PM	#1020
Buzz Member Join Date: Sep 2022 Posts: 67	How does Topps determine which orders get shipped first? I ordered my boxes in the first 5 minutes, my buddy ordered 15-20 minutes afterwards. His shipped today, mine hasn't.

01-16-2023, 07:57 PM	#1021
Funkster Member Join Date: Sep 2022 Location: Chicago Posts: 999	Long, I’d say you did quite well on your two boxes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk