First Buzz: 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball cards + SPs - Page 43

Mahomie · 02-10-2021, 02:15 PM

Opened another blaster, pretty fun rip:

THammers · 02-10-2021, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Hobby odds

Using this math with gold parallels to approximate hobby print run...

330 cards in set
2021 golds per card
1:24 odds, or 0.04 chance

(330 x 2021) / 0.04 = 18,007,110 hobby packs

18,007,110 / 24 packs per box = 750,296 hobby boxes

750,296 / 12 boxes per case = 31,262 cases

I don't think this calculation works because the Gold aren't hobby exclusive. I think you need to do it on the Blacks maybe? Or something that is hobby exclusive, not sure what is honestly.

theshowandme · 02-10-2021, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Hobby odds

Using this math with gold parallels to approximate hobby print run...

330 cards in set
2021 golds per card
1:24 odds, or 0.04 chance

(330 x 2021) / 0.04 = 18,007,110 hobby packs

18,007,110 / 24 packs per box = 750,296 hobby boxes

750,296 / 12 boxes per case = 62,525 cases

Quote:

Originally Posted by MogulSkier39

Have you done the math to see the increase in hobby boxes and cases (based on above) relative to previous years?

I mistyped above... edited the final numbers, my final case count was off.

Looking at 2020, and using this math with gold parallels to approximate hobby print run then...

350 cards in set
2020 golds per card
1:24 odds, or 0.0714 chance

(350 x 2020) / 0.0714 = 9,989,000 hobby packs

9,989,000 / 24 packs per box = 412,417 hobby boxes

412,417 / 12 boxes per case = 34,368 cases

2021 cases: 62,525
2020 cases: 34,368

theshowandme · 02-10-2021, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by THammers

I don't think this calculation works because the Gold aren't hobby exclusive. I think you need to do it on the Blacks maybe? Or something that is hobby exclusive, not sure what is honestly.

Need to get an average of all parallels, but I can't do that right now.

pjray55 · 02-10-2021, 02:17 PM

RestlessCraft is participating in the Topps Rip Party and they just pulled a 1986 Clemens Auto Superfractor out of a silver pack (not mine)

T_Hamilton · 02-10-2021, 02:17 PM

keep trying to add 4 blasters to my cart but it never gets updated. any ideas?

Mandy1320 · 02-10-2021, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Hobby odds

Using this math with gold parallels to approximate hobby print run...

330 cards in set
2021 golds per card
1:24 odds, or 0.04 chance

(330 x 2021) / 0.04 = 18,007,110 hobby packs

18,007,110 / 24 packs per box = 750,296 hobby boxes

750,296 / 12 boxes per case = 62,525 cases

Those printing machines have got to be worn down! My goodness...

avicke · 02-10-2021, 02:19 PM

Retail retail retail... But yeah, those new numbers are larger than even I thought they'd go - think the demand this year will be there but they will need to be careful if the market shrinks from this year to next...

nrivas7 · 02-10-2021, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmweb

The winning bidder, assuming he is legit, is going to be royally pissed. I was thrown for a few seconds when i pulled my first of these cards.. Aaron Judge.. before realizing and then reading the back of the card.. ugh!

What's the issue with it?

EDIT: Now I see it, wow that sucks for the winning bidder.

THammers · 02-10-2021, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Need to get an average of all parallels, but I can't do that right now.

No I think you just need the odds for the Clears to get the hobby print run since they're exclusive to hobby. Then you can use that and the Blacks to back into the jumbo pr. Then you can use the golds to back into all of retail and make some assumptions about distribution between the SKUs if you want.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

MogulSkier39 · 02-10-2021, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Earlsnake07

To me looks like almost double...unless I am reading it wrong.

I thought double too but then thought I saw hanger odds in one of the posts that didn't indicate a doubling. Didn't know if that would also be a factor.

MogulSkier39 · 02-10-2021, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I mistyped above... edited the final numbers, my final case count was off.

Looking at 2020, and using this math with gold parallels to approximate hobby print run then...

350 cards in set
2020 golds per card
1:24 odds, or 0.0714 chance

(350 x 2020) / 0.0714 = 9,989,000 hobby packs

9,989,000 / 24 packs per box = 412,417 hobby boxes

412,417 / 12 boxes per case = 34,368 cases

2021 cases: 62,525
2020 cases: 34,368

Wow. And do we know what that means relative to "junk wax" era?

jrd1436 · 02-10-2021, 02:30 PM

These were my best pulls. Casey Mize Black /70, Ernie Banks Platinum Players Red /10

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

smanzari · 02-10-2021, 02:33 PM

Yea that mize is DECENT

okumeister · 02-10-2021, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by okumeister

Was in a group break this morning with my spot as the Mets, and hit the Andres Gimenez superfractor out of the silver pack.

He's no longer a Met, but hope he has some success in Cleveland.

This is coming my way

jrd1436 · 02-10-2021, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by okumeister

This is coming my way

Awesome...Congrats!

anusinha · 02-10-2021, 02:45 PM

You cant use the golds to estimate the hobby run, you need to use the clear acetate which are hobby only

theshowandme · 02-10-2021, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by THammers

No I think you just need the odds for the Clears to get the hobby print run since they're exclusive to hobby. Then you can use that and the Blacks to back into the jumbo pr. Then you can use the golds to back into all of retail and make some assumptions about distribution between the SKUs if you want.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

Ah, thanks for the sanity check. Sorry about my numbers boys... They were way off. I somehow have a MS degree in Information Systems.

2021 Hobby Print Run Using Clear Variations

330 cards in set
10 clear variations of each

1:1938 odds, or, 0.000516

(330 * 10) / 0.000516 = 6,395,000 hobby packs
6,395,000 hobby packs / 24 packs per box = 266,475 boxes
266,475 boxes / 12 boxes per case = 22,206 cases printed

2020 Hobby Print Run Using Clear Variations

350 cards in set
10 clear variations of each

1:1437 odds, or, 0.000695894

(350 * 10) /0.000695894 = 5,029,500 hobby packs
5,029,500 hobby packs / 24 packs per box = 209,563 boxes
209,563 boxes / 12 boxes per case = 17,464 cases printed

beens75 · 02-10-2021, 02:49 PM

Hit this out of one of my 3 hobby boxes I opened today. Name: IMG_7366.jpg
Views: 653
Size: 146.8 KB

Name: IMG_7367.jpg
Views: 650
Size: 144.0 KB

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

avicke · 02-10-2021, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Ah, thanks for the sanity check. Sorry about my numbers boys... They were way off. I somehow have a MS degree in Information Systems.

2021 Hobby Print Run Using Clear Variations

330 cards in set
10 clear variations of each

1:1938 odds, or, 0.000516

(330 * 10) / 0.000516 = 6,395,000 hobby packs
6,395,000 hobby packs / 24 packs per box = 266,475 boxes
266,475 boxes / 12 boxes per case = 22,206 cases printed

2020 Hobby Print Run Using Clear Variations

350 cards in set
10 clear variations of each

1:1437 odds, or, 0.000695894

(350 * 10) /0.000695894 = 5,029,500 hobby packs
5,029,500 hobby packs / 24 packs per box = 209,563 boxes
209,563 boxes / 12 boxes per case = 17,464 cases printed

Only 100 clear in the set - not the entire checklist. At least for 2021 - imagine similar to 2020.

EDIT: Yup, 100 last year too.

jsatx · 02-10-2021, 02:52 PM

The golds are fairly consistently placed between the formats. 1 in 378 cards for hobby & blaster. 1 in 368 for jumbo and retail. 1 in 402 for hangers. I haven't seen fat pack, gravity, or tin odds, but I'm guessing they won't be too far off. This gets us to 700-750k base cards per player. The complete sets will probably push this close to 1M.

avicke · 02-10-2021, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beens75

Hit this out of one of my 3 hobby boxes I opened today.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

To be clear - you are sharing this because it is a 70th anniversary parallel to 70 and that it isn't a real auto, correct?

beens75 · 02-10-2021, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avicke

To be clear - you are sharing this because it is a 70th anniversary parallel to 70 and that it isn't a real auto, correct?

Numbered /70 not a real auto.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

avicke · 02-10-2021, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beens75

Numbered /70 not a real auto.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Indeed. Weirdly think this is the first 70th anniversary parallel I've seen. Must be hard ones to nab. Congrats!

bradley9999 · 02-10-2021, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Ah, thanks for the sanity check. Sorry about my numbers boys... They were way off. I somehow have a MS degree in Information Systems.

2021 Hobby Print Run Using Clear Variations

330 cards in set
10 clear variations of each

1:1938 odds, or, 0.000516

(330 * 10) / 0.000516 = 6,395,000 hobby packs
6,395,000 hobby packs / 24 packs per box = 266,475 boxes
266,475 boxes / 12 boxes per case = 22,206 cases printed

2020 Hobby Print Run Using Clear Variations

350 cards in set
10 clear variations of each

1:1437 odds, or, 0.000695894

(350 * 10) /0.000695894 = 5,029,500 hobby packs
5,029,500 hobby packs / 24 packs per box = 209,563 boxes
209,563 boxes / 12 boxes per case = 17,464 cases printed

Unfortunately not quite correct. The entire base set does not have a clear parallel, it is only 100 card check list. So it should be.

100 card list x 10 = 1000 clear cards. Odds 1:1938 or 0.000516

(100*10) / 0.000516 = 1,937,984 packs /24 = 80,749 boxes /12 = 6729.11 cases.

02-10-2021, 02:15 PM	#1051
Mahomie Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,467	Opened another blaster, pretty fun rip: __________________ PC: Taylor Heise, Kia Nurse, Trinity Rodman, Grogu, Electric Bill

02-10-2021, 02:17 PM	#1055
pjray55 Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Connecticut Posts: 2,021 pjr55ct	RestlessCraft is participating in the Topps Rip Party and they just pulled a 1986 Clemens Auto Superfractor out of a silver pack (not mine)

02-10-2021, 02:17 PM	#1056
T_Hamilton Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Pleasant Hill, CA Posts: 1,903	keep trying to add 4 blasters to my cart but it never gets updated. any ideas?

02-10-2021, 02:19 PM	#1058
avicke Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 1,682 avicke	Retail retail retail... But yeah, those new numbers are larger than even I thought they'd go - think the demand this year will be there but they will need to be careful if the market shrinks from this year to next...

02-10-2021, 02:30 PM	#1063
jrd1436 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: New York Posts: 364	These were my best pulls. Casey Mize Black /70, Ernie Banks Platinum Players Red /10 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-10-2021, 02:33 PM	#1064
smanzari Member Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: N/A Posts: 10,657	Yea that mize is DECENT

02-10-2021, 02:45 PM	#1067
anusinha Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,735	You cant use the golds to estimate the hobby run, you need to use the clear acetate which are hobby only

02-10-2021, 02:49 PM	#1069
beens75 Member Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 537	Hit this out of one of my 3 hobby boxes I opened today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

02-10-2021, 02:52 PM	#1071
jsatx Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Austin Posts: 431 jasum49	The golds are fairly consistently placed between the formats. 1 in 378 cards for hobby & blaster. 1 in 368 for jumbo and retail. 1 in 402 for hangers. I haven't seen fat pack, gravity, or tin odds, but I'm guessing they won't be too far off. This gets us to 700-750k base cards per player. The complete sets will probably push this close to 1M.