Patrick Mahomes Prices

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by tjforce

This is all true, but I feel like some of that gap is closing, in part due to basketball collectors getting priced out and looking to football for opportunities.


The issue, though, is that football just has so many fewer guys to 'invest' in than basketball. This is my observation as someone who collected football for 15 years, left for 5 years to collect basketball, and now is back. There are only a handful of guys worth putting my money into short term, and an ever smaller number long term.

I threw some small change at Russell Wilson Topps Chrome PSA 10s and Refractors 2 months ago before they tripled, some prizm silver Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson when Mahomes and Kyler went through the roof. But this is all stuff I'll move out of before too long.

The only place I've put my money that I plan on holding for a long time is Montana rookies, Brady, and Mahomes. In my mind, this is the past/present/future upper crust of modern football collecting.

Other guys, I just can't get into. Rodgers just doesn't do it for me. Brees will always be the 3rd-4th best of his era. And other young guys just seem too risky to dump big money into once I think of all the QB card busts over the years that actually weren't terrible players, but terrible investments: Carr, Luck, Newton, Ryan, Garappalo, etc.

My expectation that the separation between that top tier an the rest will grow is my reasoning being getting in on these guys.

Agree and I have mentioned this back in Jan-

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I agree with basketball market being bigger and thus the price difference, which I have mentioned many times in my previous posts. I am mainly a basketball collector myself. Having said that, I am seeing high end basketball and baseball collectors getting into Mahomes. Football market is also expanding along with basketball and baseball.

So are we at a point where his prices are going to stall/consolidate like Acuna and Soto until the next catalyst arrives which is another MVP or SB ring? I don't know which is why I said the current prices are not attractive to me from a risk to reward standpoint. I feel like we had a speculation phase, hype phase (MVP), euphoria phase (SB win) and are heading towards a consolidation phase. I could be wrong in my assessment. Look at Zion's NT RPA prices. I thought Lebron's exquisite RPA was expensive at $200K! This market has its own mind and it is tough to predict the future....

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Agree and I have mentioned this back in Jan-



So are we at a point where his prices are going to stall/consolidate like Acuna and Soto until the next catalyst arrives which is another MVP or SB ring? I don't know which is why I said the current prices are not attractive to me from a risk to reward standpoint. I feel like we had a speculation phase, hype phase (MVP), euphoria phase (SB win) and are heading towards a consolidation phase. I could be wrong in my assessment. Look at Zion's NT RPA prices. I thought Lebron's exquisite RPA was expensive at $200K! This market has its own mind and it is tough to predict the future....

The amount of money coming to the market is scary.

I don't know if it's a good thing really, or a bad thing.

Good:
Stuff is valuable and hobby is strong, no fear of going away

Bad:
The increase in prices/value, further prices people out of the hobby. Soon you have fewer people able to join in on opening products or buying singles. When the only option for buying boxes reasonable is spending $200 on a hobby box, that won't sit well for people. Now, the hobby will be strong, but it will entirely shift from collecting standpoint to investment standpoint.

The startout prices of Score is what gets me worried about the overall shape of the hobby, including in baseball for Topps Series 2 coming out. Prices are practically double what they should be.

[BosPats1980]

Just got a couple of beauties back myself from PSA for my PC:

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Zauron

The amount of money coming to the market is scary.

I don't know if it's a good thing really, or a bad thing.

Good:
Stuff is valuable and hobby is strong, no fear of going away

Bad:
The increase in prices/value, further prices people out of the hobby. Soon you have fewer people able to join in on opening products or buying singles. When the only option for buying boxes reasonable is spending $200 on a hobby box, that won't sit well for people. Now, the hobby will be strong, but it will entirely shift from collecting standpoint to investment standpoint.

The startout prices of Score is what gets me worried about the overall shape of the hobby, including in baseball for Topps Series 2 coming out. Prices are practically double what they should be.

Agreed. I do worry about that if there isn't some kind of price correction soon. It's not a kid's game or a hobby anymore - it's investments.

I have a friend that recently inherited his grandfather's formerly "priceless" stamp collection. Now it's basically worth the price of the stamps. People have drifted away from stamps, antiques, Lladros, Hummels, and tons of things that former generations found valuable.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

Just got a couple of beauties back myself from PSA for my PC:

Man those sparkles are nice. Congrats on the grades!

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Zauron

The amount of money coming to the market is scary.

I don't know if it's a good thing really, or a bad thing.

Good:
Stuff is valuable and hobby is strong, no fear of going away

Bad:
The increase in prices/value, further prices people out of the hobby. Soon you have fewer people able to join in on opening products or buying singles. When the only option for buying boxes reasonable is spending $200 on a hobby box, that won't sit well for people. Now, the hobby will be strong, but it will entirely shift from collecting standpoint to investment standpoint.

The startout prices of Score is what gets me worried about the overall shape of the hobby, including in baseball for Topps Series 2 coming out. Prices are practically double what they should be.

The other thing I wanted to mention is the Causal effect, rise in one thing leading to a rise in another. For example, When Luka and Zion card prices went up crazy last year, people thought Lebron's cards were cheap which led to a 5X appreciation is his TC PSA 10 prices from last year. It also had to do with Kobe's death and the rise in his card prices after that. Most of those Kobe card sales were being manipulated. People started comparing prices of one player and thought other players were cheap thus leading to a rise in other players card prices. Then came MJ's last dance and his prices went up. I thought Mahomes prices were cheap compared to Acuna and Soto, which is why I started buying Mahomes cards early last year. I wonder if that is what is going to happen based on Zion's current NT RPA prices (legit vs manipulated). I would not be surprised if it leads to a rise in Curry, Giannis and Lebron's RPA prices.

[BosPats1980]

Thanks!! I've learned to really appreciate PSA 9's, so I was stoked when the Select came back a 10. They are even better looking in person

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Man those sparkles are nice. Congrats on the grades!

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Agreed. I do worry about that if there isn't some kind of price correction soon. It's not a kid's game or a hobby anymore - it's investments.

I have a friend that recently inherited his grandfather's formerly "priceless" stamp collection. Now it's basically worth the price of the stamps. People have drifted away from stamps, antiques, Lladros, Hummels, and tons of things that former generations found valuable.

It's one thing I think, in 30 years, are cards still going to hold strong value? Based on inflation, right now a Mahomes Optic PSA 10 is worth $700, is it really going to be worth say $10,000+ in 30 years based on what we see cards going up if he has a HOF career with another Super Bowl? Are Brady Bowman Chrome cards going to be worth $100,000?

It's something I have honestly thought about in the future, if cards get to a certain level to sell and take my money.

I mean, we all speculate cards are going to keep going up, but is there a limit on that? We all have a strong interest in the market, because we grew up with cards, but it's getting harder to introduce cards to the younger market.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

The other thing that I have noticed is is it is easily to manipulate one players card prices by manipulating some other players card prices. For example, When Luka and Zion card prices went up crazy last year, people thought Lebron's cards were cheap which led to a 5X appreciation is his TC PSA 10 prices from last year. It also had to do with Kobe's death and the rise in his card prices after that. Most of those Kobe card sales were being manipulated. People started comparing prices of one player and thought other players were cheap thus leading to a rise in other players card prices. Then came MJ's last dance and his prices went up. It is rise in one thing leading to a rise in another, more like a Causal effect!. I thought Mahomes prices were cheap compared to Acuna and Soto, which is why I started buying Mahomes cards early last year. I wonder if that is what is going to happen based on Zion's current NT RPA prices (legit vs manipulated). I would not be surprised if it leads to a rise in Curry, Giannis and Lebron's NT RPA prices.

I was going to make a joke about market manipulation, but I'll leave it out lol

Mahomes was dirt cheap in comparison to Acuna and Soto, I agree. It's the football market mentality. I am honestly surprised how strong Mahomes cards are right now. If you told me I could have 2 2018 Acuna Bat Down RC PSA 10 or a Mahomes Prizm PSA 10, I'm taking the Mahomes. Mahomes could go down as one of the best QB's ever, while Acuna is still way too iffy for a career like that.

These Zion prices, they can't be real though? You have people spending $100+ on basic event worn jersey relics of Zion. The basketball market is a different world, I just don't understand it. If a Zion jersey is worth $200, is this going to mean game worn Lebron jersey cards are worth that much?

That's one thing no other sport is strong in, is pain jersey cards. Sometimes you get premiums for certain players or patches, but not very often.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Zauron

I was going to make a joke about market manipulation, but I'll leave it out lol

Mahomes was dirt cheap in comparison to Acuna and Soto, I agree. It's the football market mentality. I am honestly surprised how strong Mahomes cards are right now. If you told me I could have 2 2018 Acuna Bat Down RC PSA 10 or a Mahomes Prizm PSA 10, I'm taking the Mahomes. Mahomes could go down as one of the best QB's ever, while Acuna is still way too iffy for a career like that.

These Zion prices, they can't be real though? You have people spending $100+ on basic event worn jersey relics of Zion. The basketball market is a different world, I just don't understand it. If a Zion jersey is worth $200, is this going to mean game worn Lebron jersey cards are worth that much?

That's one thing no other sport is strong in, is pain jersey cards. Sometimes you get premiums for certain players or patches, but not very often.

Haha, I edited my comment to not include such words. I will have to refrain from using lot of words going forward

With regards to Zion's NT RPA prices, I felt the same and asked similar question in basketball forum. Someone mentioned that Houdini tweeted that he sold his Zion NT RPA. Not sure how much it sold for.

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It’s especially nuts when Houdini is selling one with a better patch for $75K OBO.

Originally Posted by ichirorox

Houdini just tweeted that his Zion has been sold!

[Onepocketj]

Was just looking at some pop reports. Really hope one of my Phoenix comes back a 10. Didn't realize the pop is only 68 on those. And only 17 on the Color Burst

[Tjd605]

Originally Posted by Zauron

It's one thing I think, in 30 years, are cards still going to hold strong value? Based on inflation, right now a Mahomes Optic PSA 10 is worth $700, is it really going to be worth say $10,000+ in 30 years based on what we see cards going up if he has a HOF career with another Super Bowl? Are Brady Bowman Chrome cards going to be worth $100,000?

It's something I have honestly thought about in the future, if cards get to a certain level to sell and take my money.

I mean, we all speculate cards are going to keep going up, but is there a limit on that? We all have a strong interest in the market, because we grew up with cards, but it's getting harder to introduce cards to the younger market.

The more plentiful cards will more than likely level off at some point. The very rare cards will obviously have a much higher ceiling.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Zauron

It's one thing I think, in 30 years, are cards still going to hold strong value? Based on inflation, right now a Mahomes Optic PSA 10 is worth $700, is it really going to be worth say $10,000+ in 30 years based on what we see cards going up if he has a HOF career with another Super Bowl? Are Brady Bowman Chrome cards going to be worth $100,000?

It's something I have honestly thought about in the future, if cards get to a certain level to sell and take my money.

I mean, we all speculate cards are going to keep going up, but is there a limit on that? We all have a strong interest in the market, because we grew up with cards, but it's getting harder to introduce cards to the younger market.

Agree, Card prices have a ceiling effect and can't go up forever unless it's a very rare card of a highly sought after player such as Ruth, Mantle, Jordan and even then the % appreciation decreases as time goes on. My approach is to buy multiples of rare cards, sell some for profit and ride the rest at reduced/free of cost. I have also been narrowing down on my speculative bets and use that (plus new) funds to expand my LeBron and Jordan PC because I consider them safer bets. I still hold some high end Trout, Acuna and Soto but those are are all at free of cost. I have been doing the same with Mahomes i.e; sell some multiples and keep some with the exception that I have not narrowed down my Mahomes collection as much as I did with Acuna and Soto. Mahomes was my biggest speculative bet but that was a risk I was willing to take. I was able to take some risk off the table post SB win.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Was just looking at some pop reports. Really hope one of my Phoenix comes back a 10. Didn't realize the pop is only 68 on those. And only 17 on the Color Burst

Yuup.

Now living in PHX, I have to like PHX as a set. Have 2-3 color blasts at PSA that are about to pop. Hopefully I get some good results

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

Just got a couple of beauties back myself from PSA for my PC:

Beautiful white sparkle! Very nice card

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Yuup.

Now living in PHX, I have to like PHX as a set. Have 2-3 color blasts at PSA that are about to pop. Hopefully I get some good results

Lmk before you send the color bursts to Probstein. Still like to add one to my collection.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

Just got a couple of beauties back myself from PSA for my PC:

Congrats once again. Glad you took the risk and picked up the last raw XRC on ebay. It paid off

[KhalDrogo]

Market still has a lot of room to run up. Rising tide lifts all boats. Take a look at what kind of money is buying up the ultra high end.

We’re in a new era. Cards are the perfect investment vehicle. There’s volume and variety. They’re easily stored. There’s a gambling component. They display nicely. And most importantly, they are backed by something most people in the world enjoy in some way or another, sports!

[pcptrade]

I am asking this in a jovial way because it just occurred to me.....I do not own Optic Holo and never discussed about them or gave price projections on them. Optic Holo PSA 10 prices went from $550 in Feb to 2100 In May, which is a ~4X gain. XRC PSA 10 prices went up from $1600 to $7000 in the same time period, which is a 4.5X gain. I know there are few who said I was the one who influenced the XRC prices. So who (so called pumper) is responsible for ~4X gain in Optic Holo PSA 10 prices if it is not me. I would like to know

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I am asking this in a jovial way because it just occurred to me.....I do not own Optic Holo and PSA 10 prices went from $550 in Feb to 2100 In May, which is a ~4X gain. XRC PSA 10 prices went up from $1600 to $7000 in the same time period, which is a 4.5X gain. I know there are few who said I was the one who influenced the XRC prices. So who (so called pumper) is responsible for ~4X gain in Optic Holo PSA 10 prices if it is not me. I would like to know

I'm sure a huge part of it was the basketball crowd moving into football. Holos are much bigger there.
Plus, I know you love to quote me saying this but Optic was very undervalued for a long time. Holos were under $200 in February while Prizms were going through the roof. I actually bought 5 between $150 and $200 just because I saw value there. They were bound to go up at some point.
And to be clear. I wasn't pumping them. I stated they were undervalued for months. And that was after I already sold my PSA 10 rainbow actually. I knew the gap was way too big with Prizm.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

I'm sure a huge part of it was the basketball crowd moving into football. Holos are much bigger there.
Plus, I know you love to quote me saying this but Optic was very undervalued for a long time. Holos were under $200 in February while Prizms were going through the roof. I actually bought 5 between $150 and $200 just because I saw value there. They were bound to go up at some point.
And to be clear. I wasn't pumping them. I stated they were undervalued for months. And that was after I already sold my PSA 10 rainbow actually. I knew the gap was way too big with Prizm.

There is always room for misinterpretation in social media and open forums. The prices of all Mahomes cards (Prizm, Optic, XRC, Donruss Elite etc) went up on an average 3X since Feb. So not sure why rise in XRC price was not attributed as part of the overall rise in Mahomes others cards. I will leave that topic here

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

There is always room for misinterpretation in social media and open forums. The prices of all Mahomes cards (Prizm, Optic, XRC, Donruss Elite etc) went up on an average 3X since Feb. So not sure why rise in XRC price was not attributed as part of the overall rise in Mahomes others cards. I will that topic here

My bad. Thought you were asking a sincere question.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

My bad. Thought you were asking a sincere question.

It was a sincere question asked in a jovial way

All good

[Onepocketj]

Just picked up another Illumination. Those cards have grown on me over the last couple years. Wasn't a big fan when they first came out.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Lmk before you send the color bursts to Probstein. Still like to add one to my collection.

Will do for sure If both gem I may keep one and sale one.

Side note, I am amazed at how quickly Patty 17s have dried up over the past 4-6 weeks. Theres literally nothing at auction other than Score cards. Even graded is drying up.