**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[The_Reverend]

If the Mavs take game 3 and Luka has another all around game, they would have accomplished far more than I expected in this series. The Mavs are clicking and playing team ball with Luka as the QB. Will they win the series? Not likely. Will they win another game in the Series? Very likely. To go up 2-1 would reverse some of the sell-off and have Luka stuff moving back about the $2.000 mark for Prizm. It is so nice to have sports back and to pull for a guy who has fun and enjoys the game.

[RedMike]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Can’t spend 48 minutes harassing the other team without racking up the foul calls. Especially after the scuffle in game 1.

Looks like I have a nice Luka coming in the mail today. Just in time for the Mavs to take the 2-1 lead.

Haha lets not get ahead of ourselves.. this is still going to be a battle.

However, lets hope Mavs can do it.

[Jdan67]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

If the Mavs take game 3 and Luka has another all around game, they would have accomplished far more than I expected in this series. The Mavs are clicking and playing team ball with Luka as the QB. Will they win the series? Not likely. Will they win another game in the Series? Very likely. To go up 2-1 would reverse some of the sell-off and have Luka stuff moving back about the $2.000 mark for Prizm. It is so nice to have sports back and to pull for a guy who has fun and enjoys the game.

I think the consensus was that the Clipps win this series by a long shot, with the mavs stealing a game, maaaaybe two. If they take two or anything more it exceeds expectations and thus I would imagine it impacts Luka cards positively.

[CapeTownCards]

Originally Posted by Jdan67

I think the consensus was that the Clipps win this series by a long shot, with the mavs stealing a game, maaaaybe two. If they take two or anything more it exceeds expectations and thus I would imagine it impacts Luka cards positively.

Oh for sure, like one person said it will in all probability push the Prizms back to $2000.
If they take the series the internet and ebay will explode!

[dkcardman]

Originally Posted by CapeTownCards

Oh for sure, like one person said it will in all probability push the Prizms back to $2000.
If they take the series the internet and ebay will explode!

Any ideas as to why his prizm 10 has dropped to under 1600 and 1700 last night? That's over 20% dip from a week ago and he's only has 2 record setting performances...
Actually his cards across the board except for maybe a few super high end seem to have similarly dipped the last couple days.
Maybe the dip because of anticipation of being eliminated?

[CapeTownCards]

Originally Posted by dkcardman

Any ideas as to why his prizm 10 has dropped to under 1600 and 1700 last night? That's over 20% dip from a week ago and he's only has 2 record setting performances...
Actually his cards across the board except for maybe a few super high end seem to have similarly dipped the last couple days.
Maybe the dip because of anticipation of being eliminated?

Originally Posted by sc29650

Supply and demand. Lots of sellers rushed to market because of playoffs. Imho

I think this is one of the biggest reasons... ^^^
And like you said the anticipation of elimination.

[bloodwings19]

Originally Posted by CapeTownCards

I think this is one of the biggest reasons... ^^^
And like you said the anticipation of elimination.

I also think people that wants Luka now already have one, or two, or many. His prices won't fluctuate too much until he gets to the Finals, or he dethrones King James in a series. Or he has those 20, 20, 20 games

[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by dkcardman

Any ideas as to why his prizm 10 has dropped to under 1600 and 1700 last night? That's over 20% dip from a week ago and he's only has 2 record setting performances...
Actually his cards across the board except for maybe a few super high end seem to have similarly dipped the last couple days.
Maybe the dip because of anticipation of being eliminated?

12.7k PSA 10s. There is your answer. Only a handful of peeps willing to pay that much for a base card.


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[vktwinsfan]

Anyone else feel like this series comes down to the consistency of the Mavs bench? Their starters are gonna put up buckets against anyone, but if the 2nd unit can come in and at least tread water I might bet on the Mavs.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

12.7k PSA 10s. There is your answer. Only a handful of peeps willing to pay that much for a base card.


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Well there were 12.7 PSA 10s when they were going for 2K a couple days ago too, so that's not the answer.

[dlutton]

Ran a little mixer in our room the other day and and included 1 box of 18-19 Absolute - pulled this for a member...he was a little happy

Selling it on the bay for him if anyone has any interest!

s-l1600 by David Lutton, on Flickr

[PacklineD]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

12.7k PSA 10s. There is your answer. Only a handful of peeps willing to pay that much for a base card.


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Numbered stuff from brands like Chronicles, Donruss, etc. has dipped a bit too. I've been gobbling up what I can, especially in the last few days. Im probably catching a short term knife, but I dont think Ill be able to score PSA 10 chronicles red /149 paralles for under $500 this time next year, even if the economy is in the tank. Was pleasantly surprised to have been able to do so recently.

No panic whatsover from me....but those who are seeking to directly relate Luka's card prices to his most recent performances have to understand that a pullback NEEDS to happen for his cards to truly sustain value long term. So even if he averages a triple double for the rest of the series and the Mavs shock the Clips, I doubt there will be an explosion. The explosion has happened in the past 6 months as people have been speculating that Luka will achieve amazing results throughout his career.

The modern card market has obviously become a wild, wild west with speculation fueling a great deal of the surge. Sure, it's easier to say, "Man Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is GOING to be awesome a couple hours after he has a great game, but his recent enormous price spike was still fueled by the forecasting of what he MIGHT be one day rather than the fact that he was playing well at the time.

Collectibles are an ever evolving market/game/jungle. The only certainty is that non stop exponential growth is not possible. No matter what.

Luka is as good a bet as anyone can possible make as far as card investments go IMHO, but only if you're playing the long game. My boy has played under 200 NBA games and his base flagship RC has seen prices of $2200+. There have to be peaks and valleys. Hopefully everyone can enjoy the entire ride

Always enjoy reading this thread. Just my 2 cents.

[Jdan67]

Originally Posted by dkcardman

Any ideas as to why his prizm 10 has dropped to under 1600 and 1700 last night? That's over 20% dip from a week ago and he's only has 2 record setting performances...
Actually his cards across the board except for maybe a few super high end seem to have similarly dipped the last couple days.
Maybe the dip because of anticipation of being eliminated?

Very simple, based on the pulse I have with some of the prominent collectors in the community. More and more people inquiring about selling the base and rotating to higher end, low numbered, SSP, autos, RPA's etc...and I'm not shocked at all- The price spread from base 10's to some rarer cards were just too small.

[texmcpherson]

Needed a little cash so I sold my Prizm RC PSA 9 and purchase a raw Optic RC. Wouldn't have done this if I wasn't in a pinch but in all honesty I think the Optic is a cleaner looking card.

[snomelcrob]

Originally Posted by jhill80

I have to agree with you. I have been trying to get you to let go of that one! Lol.
I was lucky enough to find a guy that had one, not on here or ebay, and got it from him last week. Such a nice looking card in person!!

https://flic.kr/p/2jwtwj6

Nice! I’m glad you were able to get one. I hit mine in a groupbreak last year at Optic’s release prices, so I think it will be difficult to ever justify moving mine. Feels like Optic will eventually become the chrome esque variations to have.


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[yoyosh]

Couple more golds from this year's Chronicles came in yest:

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

12.7k PSA 10s. There is your answer. Only a handful of peeps willing to pay that much for a base card.


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12,700 is not a lot of cards when you think about the international market. Those of us who have been in the hobby forever remember when 25,000 was rare.

[sc29650]

My two cents are what the Luka Market is doing:

In full disclosure, I got into the game in October 2019 primary to make some money, but have grown into somewhat of a collector over the time.

In order to sustain a thriving market, there needs to be a end-consumer. In this case, a collector. We all know that the Prizm Base has a population in the thousands (last I check PSA 10 was over 12k). For this reason, while I own thousands of dollars worth of Luka, I have never purchased a Prizm card. Imho, there is not enough end-consumers at this point to maintain a $2000+ price point. In the last month or so, it is in my opinion that the vast majority of purchases have been by flippers gearing up for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if many purchases were artificially inflated by big-players who are holding a ton of cards by either shilling the auctions, or intentionally purchasing at a higher price point to create the illusion of a spike, only to attempt to liquidate at said price point. It didn't work. Hundreds of Prizm PSA 10 Base flooded the market at the start of the playoffs only to find a limited of end-consumers purchasing. Simple supply and demands laws created competition by the sellers thus creating a softening in the market.

I may be wrong, but I have always thought that at some point there would be a correction in the market towards rarer Luka cards. I still hold that there will be a point in time where color Chronicles/Select/Revolution will out perform Prizm Silver simply due to supply. Demand will be the ultimate judge in the matter and I think we are already seeing it. Even brands such a Noir will sell in the future for mind-boggling numbers compared to Prizm.

I'm sure the short-term flippers will crucify me in this and that is fine.

The real question is what will the collectors want in the end? Prizm Base??

[imbluestreak23]

Yup, I wouldn't be buying Luka/Zion prizm bass. Just too many out there. Worse than 90's Clectors Choice

But I do like the color.

[theleica]

Just to throw this out there.....

2018 Prizm Luka Doncic base cards graded PSA 9 (Pop of 6411) and PSA 10 (Pop of 12716) have a value of $28,327,550 today. This was around $8 million in May 2020.

His PSA 9 & 10 2018 Prizm Silver, RWB, Green, Pink Ice and Ruby Wave add another $24,759,000.

That doesn't include BGS or ungraded.....

[gmoney000]

Sometimes it's a combination of what people want and can afford. Prizm is the #1 RC Non-Auto card. Not everyone can afford the /199 /299 numbered stuff. This is why the base gets inflated. Also, less completed sales of the higher end which can be tricky.

Trust me I wish the Green/Pink PSA 10's and numbered stuff was higher too compared to base.

Originally Posted by sc29650

My two cents are what the Luka Market is doing:

In full disclosure, I got into the game in October 2019 primary to make some money, but have grown into somewhat of a collector over the time.

In order to sustain a thriving market, there needs to be a end-consumer. In this case, a collector. We all know that the Prizm Base has a population in the thousands (last I check PSA 10 was over 12k). For this reason, while I own thousands of dollars worth of Luka, I have never purchased a Prizm card. Imho, there is not enough end-consumers at this point to maintain a $2000+ price point. In the last month or so, it is in my opinion that the vast majority of purchases have been by flippers gearing up for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if many purchases were artificially inflated by big-players who are holding a ton of cards by either shilling the auctions, or intentionally purchasing at a higher price point to create the illusion of a spike, only to attempt to liquidate at said price point. It didn't work. Hundreds of Prizm PSA 10 Base flooded the market at the start of the playoffs only to find a limited of end-consumers purchasing. Simple supply and demands laws created competition by the sellers thus creating a softening in the market.

I may be wrong, but I have always thought that at some point there would be a correction in the market towards rarer Luka cards. I still hold that there will be a point in time where color Chronicles/Select/Revolution will out perform Prizm Silver simply due to supply. Demand will be the ultimate judge in the matter and I think we are already seeing it. Even brands such a Noir will sell in the future for mind-boggling numbers compared to Prizm.

I'm sure the short-term flippers will crucify me in this and that is fine.

The real question is what will the collectors want in the end? Prizm Base??

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

12,700 is not a lot of cards when you think about the international market. Those of us who have been in the hobby forever remember when 25,000 was rare.

precisely what people miss every time they quote the prizm pop report.

12k is nothing, especially as times passes and more people jump on the Luka wave. his international appeal is just getting started.

Originally Posted by gmoney000

Sometimes it's a combination of what people want and can afford. Prizm is the #1 RC Non-Auto card. Not everyone can afford the /199 /299 numbered stuff. This is why the base gets inflated. Also, less completed sales of the higher end which can be tricky.

this usually also gets lost in the sauce, yet is a huge component to the current price for his prizm.

[beavers]

Originally Posted by sc29650

My two cents are what the Luka Market is doing:

In full disclosure, I got into the game in October 2019 primary to make some money, but have grown into somewhat of a collector over the time.

In order to sustain a thriving market, there needs to be a end-consumer. In this case, a collector. We all know that the Prizm Base has a population in the thousands (last I check PSA 10 was over 12k). For this reason, while I own thousands of dollars worth of Luka, I have never purchased a Prizm card. Imho, there is not enough end-consumers at this point to maintain a $2000+ price point. In the last month or so, it is in my opinion that the vast majority of purchases have been by flippers gearing up for the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if many purchases were artificially inflated by big-players who are holding a ton of cards by either shilling the auctions, or intentionally purchasing at a higher price point to create the illusion of a spike, only to attempt to liquidate at said price point. It didn't work. Hundreds of Prizm PSA 10 Base flooded the market at the start of the playoffs only to find a limited of end-consumers purchasing. Simple supply and demands laws created competition by the sellers thus creating a softening in the market.

I may be wrong, but I have always thought that at some point there would be a correction in the market towards rarer Luka cards. I still hold that there will be a point in time where color Chronicles/Select/Revolution will out perform Prizm Silver simply due to supply. Demand will be the ultimate judge in the matter and I think we are already seeing it. Even brands such a Noir will sell in the future for mind-boggling numbers compared to Prizm.

I'm sure the short-term flippers will crucify me in this and that is fine.

The real question is what will the collectors want in the end? Prizm Base??

I think this is one of the important elements happening. Lots of people are attracted by the potential to earn, but end up becoming collectors as well. So yes, the flipper volume is increasing, but so is the collector volume.

However, just like with any asset prices don't stay at highs. They hit highs, consolidate a bit below that level to form a new base until the supply tightens at said price, then the price breaks out again until it reaches a point where people are again willing to be sellers at which point it dips a bit and consolidates again. This dip we are seeing is consolidation occurring below a new high but way above the previous floor. The action is normal and healthy.

[RandyC]

Optic Color (Holo,Red,Blue,Orange)

Donruss Optic Color by Card Insights, on Flickr

[sc29650]

Originally Posted by beavers

I think this is one of the important elements happening. Lots of people are attracted by the potential to earn, but end up becoming collectors as well. So yes, the flipper volume is increasing, but so is the collector volume.

However, just like with any asset prices don't stay at highs. They hit highs, consolidate a bit below that level to form a new base until the supply tightens at said price, then the price breaks out again until it reaches a point where people are again willing to be sellers at which point it dips a bit and consolidates again. This dip we are seeing is consolidation occurring below a new high but way above the previous floor. The action is normal and healthy.

So true. Every market has contraction