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GRADING For all grading talk - PSA, BGS, SGC, etc |
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#11526 |
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out
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PSA will not be backed up by opening a $100 option. Sure, initial wave might take 2-3 months. We will never see what happened at the beginning of 2021 ever again with PSA getting so far backed up. It just will not happen under Nats watch.
The claims that “the other company” is turning through cards at such a fast pace compared to PSA is really tiring. You can literally keep saying that for the next 6 months, and sure you would be right. The damage has been done. And because the damage has been done, what does a reasonable person expect? For them to work 30 hours in a 24 hour day and hire every human with a pulse who submits an application? From the looks of it they are doing something close to that. But, the flood of cards are still at PSA. They aren’t getting returned to sender by request anytime soon. To not acknowledge the progress that PSA has made up to this point in clearing out their backlog at their current pace is playing favorites. To not acknowledge the grading production output per day/week/month is also just playing favorites. Exponentially more cards are entering the market in lighthouse holders more so than all other companies combined. Are we just going to keep ignoring that? When the dust settles, and PSA has capacity to grade 700-800k cards of fresh submissions per month (not backlogged, we are talking fresh submissions), they will be doing so at a price level that guarantees a reasonable turnaround time. 12 months plus will never happen again. And any company not named PSA will see their submission volume drop exponentially OVERNIGHT. These are predictions that have a very high probability of happening. We can keep bickering back and forth for the next 6 months all we wan and seeing SGC turn out TAs of 25-50 days and keep comparing to 12 month TAs. Let’s see what happens in 6 months once it becomes evident that PSA corrected their mistakes and folks can start submitting to them again. SGC and CSG threads will become ghost towns
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@shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN
https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort |
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#11527 |
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out
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And for the people that call ME a PSA homer, sure, do your thing. As far as I can tell I am the only person posting on blowout publically who is sending submissions of my cards to PSA, SGC and CSG (although that won’t happen ever again). Again, I re-emphasize my cards. Not counting the group break folks. Have no idea what they submit personally, nor do I honestly care. This is not fanboyism, this is just a reality of what will happen when PSA does reopen lower tiers at whatever pricing levels they come up with. I predict they will start off high and drop from their. Test levels “should” be $100, $75, $50 and lower if possible. Test for 2-3 months and adjust.
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@shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN
https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort |
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#11528 | |
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Last edited by The_Reverend; 10-24-2021 at 04:59 PM. |
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#11529 |
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Location: CA
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I wonder how the low end graded market really is right now. For the sake of discussion, let's say a bulk rate of $25 comes back with a 6 month turnaround time. Are there a lot of low end base currently that wasn't submitted previously before the shut down that people still have a ton of in a large pile and is an easy 2x ROI at a mint 9? I imagine there will be a ton of 2018 Bowman and 2018 Topps/Topps Update Ohtani that fits that scenario. But is there enough low end base of other players that people would not think twice about submitting at a $25 level? I only know the baseball side of things, not football or basketball. Some may still believe the buyers market is just as hot as it was back in April for even low end base...but reality may set in soon that low end base like Lux and a few others can't even get back 2x ROI at a gem mint grade. If it turns out that PSA 10 comps of a lot of low end base currently is less than 2x ROI when you factor in $25 grading fees (i.e. comps are $35-40 right now), then there may be a lot less submitted than we might think?
Last edited by oddstuff; 10-24-2021 at 11:30 PM. |
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#11530 | ||
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out
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Given how much product is being produced today, PSA 10 gems of the actual young stars may be lucky to break $100-$125 consistently for something like Optic (Zion, Ja). Extrapolate that to the young QBs in football (Burrow, Herbert, this years class). Then extrapolate that to LaMelo Optic or Edwards Optic. Its becoming gem or bust when buying at $30-$50 raw, grading at $25 potentially, and hoping to collect $100 consistently minus fees. UM baseball is even worse as the 2021 RC logo class completely stinks. At that rate very few cards make the cut consistently. Even with all of the mass produced junk sets. These are cards that aren’t really worth submitting to SGC at $30. They barely make sense for PSA aside from first to market. Will be interesting to see what happens. Lots of target grading options at $15/card. $25/card cuts it down significantly and $50 really cuts down potential volume.
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@shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN
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#11531 | |
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#11532 | |
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But...next year is the Wander factor on the baseball side. Wander alone may be the reason that dictate what 2022 bulk pricing/turnaround time may be. I don't know what player/cards is current highest low end baseball graded base is (there's the 10k thread where the top players are pushing 20k for PSA 10s - https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1471258), but I'm pretty sure Wander '22 series 1 will smash that easily unless PSA sets UM high enough to slow down subs but if they think they can take in the volume there's no reason for them to do that (20K should be easy unless Topps factory screws something up in the printing process). So Wander is a new variable that could affect how bulk grading will be (cost/turnaround times). PSA may retain a higher UM tier for Wander alone ($25-30 ultra modern/2022 cards while modern at $20 for 2020-2017 and a "pre-modern" 2016-1972 at $15?). There aren't any rookies from the 2021 drafts on hoops/FB side right now that is going to impact or can potentially impact bulk grading as we speak if a $25 service came back on January 1st? Another variable we don't know the effect it would have on grading is the potential MLB labor lockout. If that happens, would it slow baseball submissions and if it does, how PSA would respond in their pricing. Last edited by oddstuff; 10-24-2021 at 07:18 PM. |
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#11533 |
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out
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^^Definitely agree with Wander and it doesn't stop with him. Assuming there is a baseball season we will see 2022 RC logo Bobbys as he is bound to be called up in such a way that Topps will be allowed to include him in releases for the summer and beyond.
PSA can definitely combat this by redefining a UM tier as you stated. Old bulk at $15-$20 would be awesome while keeping UM very high to deter a potential flood. I'm sure they will see and track submission volume day by day and if it starts exceeding predefined thresholds for output they will put stops in place immediately. I am 100% okay with PSA keeping services open and haulting them for 2-4 weeks, reopening at higher prices, etc to adjust as demand waxes and wains so long as turnaround times are reasonable and guaranteed.
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@shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN
https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort |
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#11534 |
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So... When they opening that $100 level..
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#11535 |
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Location: CA
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#11536 | |
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#11537 |
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It probably would for six months or so as people unwind their waiting to submit backlogs, but, now that Zion PSA 10 Hoops rookies are down to $40 on eBay, the demand for $25 slabs probably isn't sustainable long term.
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#11540 |
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Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 302
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Bulk Ultra Modern R/D on 4/5 just went into grading.
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#11541 |
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Location: CA
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#11542 |
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#11543 |
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No, they are 5x7 inches. Not sure why PSA calls them "poster" when they are a post card. The PSA 9 is a Pop 1. There is only a few graded of each. I think the 9 is worth a good chunk of change.
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#11544 |
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Join Date: Nov 2019
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#11545 |
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Economy order from January finally popped, quite a few of these that I wish I could have offloaded in the spring of last year
19 1 56372890 MINT 9 2014 Topps 1 Mike Trout Sparkle on Cleat Card 20 1 56372891 GEM MINT 10 2020 Topps Brooklyn Collection 27 Mike Trout Orange Card 21 1 56372892 MINT 9 2011 Playoff Contenders 17 Mike Trout Card 22 1 56372893 GEM MINT 10 2014 Topps Chrome 1 Mike Trout Sliding-Sepia Refractor Card 23 1 56372894 MINT 9 2019 Topps Transcendent VIP Party Mike Trout Through the Years 2011 Mike Trout Card 24 1 56372895 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 2011 Bowman Future's Game Triple Relics MT Mike Trout Card 25 1 56372896 MINT 9 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Throwback Threads TT-MT Mike Trout Card 26 1 56372897 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Update US104 Juan Soto Gold Card 27 1 56372898 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Update US300 Juan Soto Batting Card 28 1 56372899 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Update US300 Juan Soto Batting Card 29 1 56372900 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Update US300 Juan Soto Batting Card 30 1 56372901 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Chrome Update HMT55 Juan Soto Card 31 1 56372902 GEM MINT 10 2017 Bowman Draft BDC162 Juan Soto Chrome-Purple Refractor Card 32 1 56372903 GEM MINT 10 2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks & Prospects Rookies 40 Christian Yelich Refractor Card 33 1 56372904 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Chrome Update HMT26 Gleyber Torres Pink Refractor Card 34 1 56372905 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Chrome 31 Gleyber Torres Card 35 1 56372906 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Chrome 31 Gleyber Torres Card 36 1 56372907 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Update US191 Gleyber Torres Rainbow Foil Card 37 1 56372908 GEM MINT 10 2020 Finest Flashbacks Autographs Raj Ronald Acuna Jr. Card 38 1 56372909 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Throwback Thursday 160 Ronald Acuna Jr. Card 39 1 56372910 GEM MINT 10 2018 Bowman's Best 51 Ronald Acuna Jr. Card 40 1 56372911 GEM MINT 10 2017 Bowman Prospects BP127 Ronald Acuna Bowman 70th Card 41 1 56372912 MINT 9 2017 Bowman Prospects BCP127 Ronald Acuna Chrome Card 42 1 56372913 GEM MINT 10 2017 Bowman Prospects BCP127 Ronald Acuna Chrome Card 43 1 56372914 GEM MINT 10 2017 Bowman Prospects BCP127 Ronald Acuna Chrome Card 44 1 56372915 GEM MINT 10 2018 Topps Update US250 Ronald Acuna Jr. at-Bat in Blue Jersey Card 45 1 56372916 MINT 9 2018 Topps Update US250 Ronald Acuna Jr. at-Bat in Blue Jersey Card 46 1 56372917 GEM MINT 10 2017 Bowman Draft BDC139 Mark Vientos Chrome-Blue Refractor Card 47 1 56372918 MINT 9 2014 Topps Chrome 216 Nolan Arenado Sepia Refractor Card 48 1 56372919 GEM MINT 10 2019 Bowman Mega Box Chrome 82 Marco Luciano Purple Refractor Card 49 1 56372920 MINT 9 2019 Bowman Mega Box Chrome 82 Marco Luciano Green Refractor Card 50 1 56372921 GEM MINT 10 2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Edition BCP8 Jasson Dominguez Card 51 1 56372922 MINT 9 2019 Topps Holiday Bowman TH-WF Wander Franco Turkey Card
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#11546 |
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: CA
Posts: 5,028
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#11547 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: CA
Posts: 5,028
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#11548 |
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Order Type: Value Ultra-Modern
# of cards: 50 Order received per PSA: 10/13/2021 Research & ID: 1/26/2021 Grading: 07/01/2021 Assembly: 10/01/2021 QA1: 10/08/2021 QA2: 10/18/2021 Shipped: 10/22/2021 |
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#11549 |
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10/26/21 Grades Ready! Just shy of 1 year since I shipped them. I kind of expected that going in. Got completely hammered on the basketball stuff only 6 of 20, but went 5/5 on the football stuff. At least a couple Luka Optic RC’s gemmed out of that order ( even though I thought the Michael Porter Jr’s were better IMO ) but in this case I’ll take the Luka 10’s and move on. Still a 40% Gem rate is a little disappointing.
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#11550 |
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My order with PCSportscards went from grading to assembly on 10/19. It was part of 2021.24 Standard.
At what point will the grades (cause everyone wants to know their grades) and labels (to check for errors) be viewable? Thanks.
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