@itsvegasdave “The Sports Card Market Will Collapse”

[RookieAddict]

Seems like a stand up guy to me

[pewe]

Originally Posted by kevinandji

So do I just cash in my last 15 years of collecting. All the cards and unopened boxes, all the memories my kids and I opening and the supportive wife saying buy whatever you like...cause if I did that I’m sure my wife would say...”where did all this money come from” and jump up down while saying “your so smart”. Then my kids could look at me like really Dad, you sold the cards WE pulled.

Sure the bank account would be very healthy and the constant asshats standing in line 30 deep at Target can be a memory and my LCS will miss my liking that $1000 hobby box (MSRP $120) and lose those friendships and memories also.

Push it all in and walk away cause in 2 years I will say coulda, shoulda, woulda? Or maybe, just maybe, I can afford what I’m buying, not a flipper or guy who stands in line unless I have to piss (getting old sucks) and keep enjoying the hobby and wait for Gary Vee and Vegas Dave have a celebrity boxing match so 5’1” Dave can get his stupid ass handed to him while Carr plays for Seattle...wait, I’m off track...I’m losing my mind, literally...

If your a person who can and has afforded this hobby then just continue to collect. I’m leaving everything to my kids. I will bookmark these posts so my oldest can look at it in 50 years and respond to all of us where the hobby is. Until 2071...good luck to everyone...wtf did I just write

I got back into collecting with my son for a few reasons, but the unifying theme was sports cards as a tangible and relatable education in asset value, business economics, buy/sell, etc. In addition to the fun of the collecting.

Selling now, with his help, is a blast. He LOVES seeing where we were correct and incorrect in choices of players, product, buy/sell price, etc. and particularly enjoys seeing how choices can result in real ROI.

We will take some of the $$ and use it to go to Red Sox games this summer. Some to buy him (and his sister) some new sports gear. Some for summer camps. And some to have on hand to buy some more cards.

Why am I saying this? I don’t think selling has to be bittersweet. It can be part of the ever evolving excitement of the hobby that we do for years to come. And result in amazing experiences for both of directly and indirectly related to the sports cards themselves.


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[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by pewe

I got back into collecting with my son for a few reasons, but the unifying theme was sports cards as a tangible and relatable education in asset value, business economics, buy/sell, etc. In addition to the fun of the collecting.

Selling now, with his help, is a blast. He LOVES seeing where we were correct and incorrect in choices of players, product, buy/sell price, etc. and particularly enjoys seeing how choices can result in real ROI.

We will take some of the $$ and use it to go to Red Sox games this summer. Some to buy him (and his sister) some new sports gear. Some for summer camps. And some to have on hand to buy some more cards.

Why am I saying this? I don’t think selling has to be bittersweet. It can be part of the ever evolving excitement of the hobby that we do for years to come. And result in amazing experiences for both of directly and indirectly related to the sports cards themselves.


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sorry to hear this

[kevinandji]

Originally Posted by pewe

I got back into collecting with my son for a few reasons, but the unifying theme was sports cards as a tangible and relatable education in asset value, business economics, buy/sell, etc. In addition to the fun of the collecting.

Selling now, with his help, is a blast. He LOVES seeing where we were correct and incorrect in choices of players, product, buy/sell price, etc. and particularly enjoys seeing how choices can result in real ROI.

We will take some of the $$ and use it to go to Red Sox games this summer. Some to buy him (and his sister) some new sports gear. Some for summer camps. And some to have on hand to buy some more cards.

Why am I saying this? I don’t think selling has to be bittersweet. It can be part of the ever evolving excitement of the hobby that we do for years to come. And result in amazing experiences for both of directly and indirectly related to the sports cards themselves.


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Appreciate the response...and yes, my oldest loves to razz me on not selling the two gold /50 2011 Harpers back when I was offered $50k cash for both...so the oldest gets the ROI but the youngest would be left a little hurt at 8yo but who knows...when I see a real downward trend I might move certain items but I can say 90% plus of those items were bought at cost and not some present day insane markup...maybe I will sell his Pokémon cards first...bad Dad

[pewe]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

sorry to hear this

I’m sad for your sorrow


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[Geoff G]

Was today the day? I was pretty busy all day and didn’t want to miss it..


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[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by BosPats1980

Buy what you like, don’t overextend yourself financially, remember to enjoy yourself and you’ll never have to worry about what Vegas Dave or anyone else has to say

Best line ever, any investment in baseball cards should be "throw away" money that could be invested in Bitcoin, a "lock" in sports betting, etc.

I witnessed the early 90's sports market implosion and it was ugly and made the industry seem like it was full of con men and thieves.

The only difference between this bubble and that is the low print run on special cards are accurate unlike the 4th world currency print runs of Pro Set and other manufacturers.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

Best line ever, any investment in baseball cards should be "throw away" money that could be invested in Bitcoin, a "lock" in sports betting, etc.

I witnessed the early 90's sports market implosion and it was ugly and made the industry seem like it was full of con men and thieves.

The only difference between this bubble and that is the low print run on special cards are accurate unlike the 4th world currency print runs of Pro Set and other manufacturers.

Low print run is accurate, but there are 43 different flagship parallels, with another 250 different autograph parallels across different sets, with an additional fifteen different online exclusive sets of varying tiers.

And if you think that's bad, then football is even worse. I think I've seen about 50 different Panini Justin Auto Patch 1/1s across 26 different products. The patches are all fake material so the scarcity is only limited to how many cheap Chinese jerseys then can chop up.

[majestik101]

Vegas Dave is trash. Hits women and steals social security numbers.

Why would anyone in their right mind listen to a damn thing he says.

[mrdallas]

Most people who have been collecting for 5 years or more (i am at 30+) but have made a killing. Heck even those that gkt in 2+ years ago. I have bought a few boxes in past year but not a lot and none in past 6 months. I still collect older stuff for fun if I can find it at right price but just like everything.. sportscards are cyclical too. This is a massive bubble. When it bursts nobody knows. Certain cards will hold value but most at some point will come a crashin. I am juts gonna sit back and watch for the most part. People want to spend 10 hours in front of target to pick up blasters.. good for them. If people can make money that is good. But people who think this market can only go up up up are in for a rude awakening and that is actually really sad for the ones that cant afford to get hammered financially. People are getting caught up and not thinking clearly IMHO

Enjoy it while it last but be realistic.

[rwperu34]

This popped into my Twitter feed from an actual economist;

If you want a serious thesis about all the oddball fad investments that sprouted over the past year, it might be something like:

When there aren't ample outlets for consumption spending, there's less pressure on investments ("investments") to deliver steady streams of income.

So score one for the Bubble Bois even though I don't think he was talking about baseball cards or predicting a crash.

The counter to that was a tweet that said there is a lot of bubble chatter (for the stock market) and that is a sign of a healthy market. We might need Pewe to update his chart.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This popped into my Twitter feed from an actual economist;



So score one for the Bubble Bois even though I don't think he was talking about baseball cards or predicting a crash.

The counter to that was a tweet that said there is a lot of bubble chatter (for the stock market) and that is a sign of a healthy market. We might need Pewe to update his chart.

That’s a cool summation

BTW I do agree we see lots of opinion we are in a bubble by asset holders. This is causing those sophisticated investors to actively try to unload their less / moderates attractive assets.

What worries me is where they are unloading them: SPACs. I am concerned that the public market, feeling left out of growth assets, is buying castoffs from the private markets. (Before we even talk about the shady quality of the SPAC managers that I see raising crazy $$)

Or some of these new private funds being raised without return aspirations, and purely as access for wealthy individuals (think doctors, lawyers, dentists, etc) that want to tell their friends they own startup shares.

I worry things like these will be the seed of market instability in the coming year.


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[NHRonin]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Low print run is accurate, but there are 43 different flagship parallels, with another 250 different autograph parallels across different sets, with an additional fifteen different online exclusive sets of varying tiers.

And if you think that's bad, then football is even worse. I think I've seen about 50 different Panini Justin Auto Patch 1/1s across 26 different products. The patches are all fake material so the scarcity is only limited to how many cheap Chinese jerseys then can chop up.

Panini is definitely printing like it’s the late 90s again. Between basketball and football, the market is saturated but people continue to buy, buy, buy everything that comes out and fill their closets with unopened product.

I’m pretty sure Panini did multiple runs of Mosaic and Prizm in both sports and trickled it out making people believe it was scarce. I can’t prove it but it reminds me of Upper Deck 90-91 French.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

Best line ever, any investment in baseball cards should be "throw away" money that could be invested in Bitcoin, a "lock" in sports betting, etc.

I witnessed the early 90's sports market implosion and it was ugly and made the industry seem like it was full of con men and thieves.

The only difference between this bubble and that is the low print run on special cards are accurate unlike the 4th world currency print runs of Pro Set and other manufacturers.

Nothing’s changed, it’s just that the con men are better at making smoke and rearranging the mirrors given their decades of experience in the hobby. Their jobs are to make cards more expensive.

[SupermanBrandon]

Did it happen yet? Is it over?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Did it happen yet? Is it over?

A watched pot never boils


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[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by joe73

40,000 Kevin Maas cards.

Hahaha, he is probably the sign of baseball card market imploding in the early 90's.

I remember baseball experts were warning he was old and never was called up until his mid 20's and hobby experts were saying his card was not worth a high price. Now his card is good wallpaper.

He could still be a good Rob Lowe double if he aged well though...

[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Largely yes. Not specific to that time period though.

But we're also glossing over a variety of things that have legitimized the practice. The internet was a huge marker which allowed the buying and selling of cards to most everyone. It opened up tens of millions of potential clients. eBay came along and gave the market price stability; a real marker for "value". Grading companies found their way into the space to further legitimize the hobby into an investment vehicle.

So we went from buying cards at the grocery story / Toys R Us to a full fledge Trillion dollar economy. Not overnight but over time. But in the last few years; the momentum has come largely from PR. A "feeling" changed from kids hobby to million dollar investment strategy.

It hasn't been a kids hobby since the 90's, obviously kids from families where the father or both parents make 6 figures can still be in the hobby but I remember when Upper Deck came out the original packs were a buck a piece(the equivalent of 2 bucks in today's money) this already priced out kids from working class to lower middle class backgrounds.

Does this hobby even make cards for the kind of kid who gets a buck from his dad and runs to the local variety store to buy a pack?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

It hasn't been a kids hobby since the 90's, obviously kids from families where the father or both parents make 6 figures can still be in the hobby but I remember when Upper Deck came out the original packs were a buck a piece(the equivalent of 2 bucks in today's money) this already priced out kids from working class to lower middle class backgrounds.

Does this hobby even make cards for the kind of kid who gets a buck from his dad and runs to the local variety store to buy a pack?

Topps Big League Baseball???


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[Retired hobbist]

Originally Posted by pewe

Topps Big League Baseball???


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How much do these packs retail for thanks? Note my handle I have been on the fringes of the card market for 20+ years.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

It hasn't been a kids hobby since the 90's, obviously kids from families where the father or both parents make 6 figures can still be in the hobby but I remember when Upper Deck came out the original packs were a buck a piece(the equivalent of 2 bucks in today's money) this already priced out kids from working class to lower middle class backgrounds.

Does this hobby even make cards for the kind of kid who gets a buck from his dad and runs to the local variety store to buy a pack?

I never understand this idea that kids only want cheap cards.
When I was a kid, I wanted 1993 Finest packs too, just like adults did. I knocked on every neighbor's door and offered to mow lawns, pull weeds or wash cars, so I could get money for upcoming shows.
Kids want (and get) $60 video games, $500 consoles, $120 sneakers, $400 phones, $300 tablets...yet the way to get kids into collecting is make .99 cent, no frills cards printed on the most generic paper stock known to man?

This idea that dad is going to throw his kid a couple of nickels at the dry goods store, and instead of using the shiny coins to buy some pop or bubble gum we need to find a way to get them to buy trading cards is absolutely absurd.

Kids get into collecting because of the players or the sport.
Market the players, market the sport, the collecting will follow.
Kids didn't get into Pokemon because the cards were cheap or valuable or whatever end of the spectrum you think makes collectors. Kids got into Pokemon because the brand is relentless. And now that these late 90's kids are adults with money to spend...boom goes Pokemon cards.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

How much do these packs retail for thanks? Note my handle I have been on the fringes of the card market for 20+ years.

Honestly not sure... think retail boxes were like $25-30/box... not sure how many packs.

If I remember right they were a bit cheaper than a pack of Pokémon cards


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[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

How much do these packs retail for thanks? Note my handle I have been on the fringes of the card market for 20+ years.

Topps Big League is $20 for a blaster.
Same price as as every other blaster.


Topps Opening Day, however, is usually $9.99 and is geared towards kids by using cheaper card stock, no foil, and includes Mascots.

Then, there's also Topps Stickers. You buy the book (usually a couple of bucks), then buy the packs of stickers (99 cents each) and collect the stickers in the book. Funny enough, this actually got my Aunt into collecting in 2020, as she was trying to build a set of SF Giants stickers and got hooked on collecting.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Topps Big League is $20 for a blaster.
Same price as as every other blaster.


Topps Opening Day, however, is usually $9.99 and is geared towards kids by using cheaper card stock, no foil, and includes Mascots.

Then, there's also Topps Stickers. You buy the book (usually a couple of bucks), then buy the packs of stickers (99 cents each) and collect the stickers in the book. Funny enough, this actually got my Aunt into collecting in 2020, as she was trying to build a set of SF Giants stickers and got hooked on collecting.

They also have these versions of Big League intended to compete with Pokémon trainer boxes... they are like $25 and include a figurine. I know it’s what got my son to consider it vs. buying a Pokémon trainer box with some birthday money.


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[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by pewe

They also have these versions of Big League intended to compete with Pokémon trainer boxes... they are like $25 and include a figurine. I know it’s what got my son to consider it vs. buying a Pokémon trainer box with some birthday money.


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I notice that you said "consider".
Did your son buy the box? Does your son collect sports cards?

I legitimately believe that non-sport and comics are doing a better job of getting kids into sports card collecting than sports cards are.

Come for the Pokemon, stay for the baseball/basketball.