Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend - Page 47

ObanMontecristo · 12-08-2022, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I've been saying it for 6 months. Great attendance but nobody's exchanging money. That's a big problem for investors and businesses. The shows still look sexy but they in reality, they are actual duds. People are there to either SELL to dealers, kick tires, waste time or buy low end PC. This is what ALL shows will look like for the next 12 months. Big shows are in a major trouble. Shows that popped up between 2019-2022 are in even bigger trouble.

Yeah but it’s more nuanced than that- I think attendance is up generally and people are looking to buy…. just not everyone is in the market for thousand-dollar PSA 10s, which many sellers have almost exclusively in their displays and won’t negotiate (much) on. The collector market is strong, but the “high-end investor” market is down. If you tailor your strategy correctly, or at least hedge on both sides, I think there’s money to be made

KhalDrogo · 12-08-2022, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I've been saying it for 6 months. Great attendance but nobody's exchanging money. That's a big problem for investors and businesses. The shows still look sexy but they in reality, they are actual duds. People are there to either SELL to dealers, kick tires, waste time or buy low end PC. This is what ALL shows will look like for the next 12 months. Big shows are in a major trouble. Shows that popped up between 2019-2022 are in even bigger trouble.

Needs to be a huge contraction in shows. Especially the wannabe regional shows that you're alluding to.

notfast · 12-08-2022, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

People are there to either SELL to dealers, kick tires, waste time or buy low end PC.

This is pretty much what shows were like pre Covid.

YouTubers show all these high end sales. The market boomed. Everything aligned for high end stuff to take off and cash to exchange hands more often than before.

But if you had a table of $1-200 cards in 2019, 2020, 2021…you did well. If you have that today and beyond….you’re going to do great too.

discodanman45 · 12-08-2022, 12:07 PM

Love the current market. Always wanted a 1993 Jeter SP Foil and just got a PSA 6 for $99. That is what it sold for in 2016.

eastbayak · 12-08-2022, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Love the current market. Always wanted a 1993 Jeter SP Foil and just got a PSA 6 for $99. That is what it sold for in 2016.

I don't care for the card but I might have to pick one up for S&G lol.

eastbayak · 12-08-2022, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notfast

This is pretty much what shows were like pre Covid.

YouTubers show all these high end sales. The market boomed. Everything aligned for high end stuff to take off and cash to exchange hands more often than before.

But if you had a table of $1-200 cards in 2019, 2020, 2021…you did well. If you have that today and beyond….you’re going to do great too.

You forgot an important detail.

The government was handing out lots of money to everyone.

Stimulus checks. Unemployment checks that not only extended beyond the usual 6 months but for amounts that such individuals were not accustomed to getting in their pre-COVID jobs.

jimmyjam1973 · 12-08-2022, 12:21 PM

Observations from last weekends Shriners Show in San Antonio:

1. Attendance seemed to be way down. I thought maybe the US Soccer game affected it in the AM, but the afternoon wasn't much better. Sunday was even worse than the typical Sunday.

2. My sales we're down about 50% from what I usually do at that show. Pretty much the consensus among most of the dealers. Granted I don't have graded cards or extremely high-end stuff.

3. Not sure if it's economy, lack of stimulus checks, people buying other things for Xmas etc. One of my best customers who usually spends $500-$700 with me each show, spent $50.

HRderby22 · 12-08-2022, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Price is an important factor.

People who have “bad” shows likely have bad prices and/or PSA 10s of second-year base cards, parallels of lesser desired sets, lesser desired players, etc. Some also might have super high-end that, though priced right relative to today’s prices, few can comfortably afford.

Agree. Just as with the housing market and used cars, those priced to the market are generally still moving.

The unique thing about the card market is that so many of us are active buyers and sellers, but it's not our top investment strategy or source of income. We don't have any overhead or payroll to meet.

I'm guessing there's a lot of us that make no purposeful effort to lose money, but if everything went to zero our lives wouldn't change. Imo, at least in part, this is why there's so many slow adaptors to selling at current market prices.

With that said, it remains rather odd that so many sellers have items listed for 3x, 4x and 5x the market. Nobody is going to pay $200 for your $50 card that's available on Ebay every day.

blackbears86 · 12-09-2022, 08:37 AM

Observations from a small regional show in Bangor, Maine last weekend. (about 75 tables, bi-monthly show)

well attended throughout the day with no shortage of attendees

Lot's of trading: the pelican boys were out in force.

Like others have stated: several sales under $20, the best sale at my friends table was $300 (Patrice Bergeron young guns rookie PSA 10)

Everything still really overpriced: A dealer told me he made so much $$ over the previous two years, he doesn't care if he sells or not, plus $30 for a table makes it easy to at least break even. He was just happy to see what he could get in from customers trading/selling.

Retail: the glut is real: SO MUCH retail available. And still overpriced.

My pickups: Shai Gilgeous Alexander 2018 absolute rookie materials auto for $75 and a few low key MJ cards.

who was hot at the show? Tatum/Patty/Jaylon Brown/Jalen Hurts

Neal · 12-09-2022, 09:28 AM

The glut is real indeed
And many sellers want the late 2020 thru mid 21 prices ... which are NEVER returning on most ultra modern cards

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

notfast · 12-09-2022, 09:41 AM

As a pelican case snob, I wish we would stop calling them “pelicans boys”.

None of these guys actually use real Pelican brand. It’s knock off Harbor freight at best.

Neal · 12-09-2022, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notfast

As a pelican case snob, I wish we would stop calling them “pelicans boys”.

None of these guys actually use real Pelican brand. It’s knock off Harbor freight at best.

Harbor seals?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Nester99 · 12-09-2022, 09:58 AM

Or you could just stop trying to belittle and talk down to people in the hobby who use a carry case. It’s so cringe to read “peli bois” if you say it I think worse of you then I do of them.

Metsfan1991 · 12-09-2022, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nester99

Or you could just stop trying to belittle and talk down to people in the hobby who use a carry case. It’s so cringe to read “peli bois” if you say it I think worse of you then I do of them.

Sorry about all those PSA 10 prizm base you have.

Nester99 · 12-09-2022, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metsfan1991

Sorry about all those PSA 10 prizm base you have.

I only have the 1 josh Allen Prizm base and it’s a psa 9. frankly I really like it. No need to apologize!

I don’t think I am who you think I am

Neal · 12-09-2022, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nester99

Or you could just stop trying to belittle and talk down to people in the hobby who use a carry case. It’s so cringe to read “peli bois” if you say it I think worse of you then I do of them.

"So cringe " ... sounds like something a peli Boi would say (and not saying you are one)

No one wants the coby white cards they are looking to get out of

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

blackbears86 · 12-09-2022, 11:15 AM

I think the term "pelican boys" originated because it was mostly kids who carried them around.

At the show I went to saturday, I only saw one adult and several kids with them.

regardless, I thought it was interesting that one dealer told me he didn't care about sales---he really cared about buying on the cheap and trading with show customers.

ThoseBackPages · 12-09-2022, 11:15 AM

Peli Bois gonna Peli Boi!

hermanotarjeta · 12-09-2022, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nester99

Or you could just stop trying to belittle and talk down to people in the hobby who use a carry case. It’s so cringe to read “peli bois” if you say it I think worse of you then I do of them.

Would “pelagic fowl” bois be a less controversial term to use for them? I think we can be flexible here.

gabballplayer14 · 12-09-2022, 11:55 AM

RE: Pelican Cases

It's easier (and way more secure) to carry one around shows than the beat up 2-row box that I used to use, or having 4 BGS graded card boxes in my bookbag. The crowd everyone talks about should be referred to as "hypebeastz" rather than Pelican Boys, because a lot of seasoned hobbyists have started to use similar cases to carry cards around shows, for a multitude of reasons.

Anyway, get off my lawn!

blackbears86 · 12-09-2022, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabballplayer14

RE: Pelican Cases

It's easier (and way more secure) to carry one around shows than the beat up 2-row box that I used to use, or having 4 BGS graded card boxes in my bookbag. The crowd everyone talks about should be referred to as "hypebeastz" rather than Pelican Boys, because a lot of seasoned hobbyists have started to use similar cases to carry cards around shows, for a multitude of reasons.

Anyway, get off my lawn!

They certainly "protect" graded cards well, but damn, they are bulky and inconvenient.

Not for Me!

SupermanBrandon · 12-09-2022, 12:17 PM

Im fine with people carrying them around but the amount of space they take up on cases when Im trying to look at cards. Be courtious.

KhalDrogo · 12-09-2022, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Im fine with people carrying them around but the amount of space they take up on cases when Im trying to look at cards. Be courtious.

Ok boomer.

discodanman45 · 12-09-2022, 12:28 PM

HGA, pelican cases, and AI!

https://youtu.be/JMqKJjMSgAI

KhalDrogo · 12-09-2022, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by discodanman45

HGA, pelican cases, and AI!

https://youtu.be/JMqKJjMSgAI

Forgot about HGA! 19.9k followers on IG and they get fewer likes and comments on their posts than me.

12-08-2022, 12:07 PM	#1154
discodanman45 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: CA Posts: 9,728 danch27	Love the current market. Always wanted a 1993 Jeter SP Foil and just got a PSA 6 for $99. That is what it sold for in 2016. __________________ Updating my entire collection on Card Ladder. Lots to go... https://www.cardladder.com/showcase/IOBB7AY2qTVVKSgU9Aqj02kfF4I3

12-09-2022, 09:28 AM	#1160
Neal Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: East Coast Posts: 2,831 1420sports	The glut is real indeed And many sellers want the late 2020 thru mid 21 prices ... which are NEVER returning on most ultra modern cards Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk __________________ collecting vintage sports cards and Star Wars .... with a touch of modern and ultra modern

12-09-2022, 11:15 AM	#1167
blackbears86 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: maine Posts: 17,133 blackbears86	I think the term "pelican boys" originated because it was mostly kids who carried them around. At the show I went to saturday, I only saw one adult and several kids with them. regardless, I thought it was interesting that one dealer told me he didn't care about sales---he really cared about buying on the cheap and trading with show customers. Last edited by blackbears86; 12-09-2022 at 11:17 AM.

12-09-2022, 11:15 AM	#1168
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,883 ThoseBackPages	Peli Bois gonna Peli Boi! __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

12-09-2022, 12:28 PM	#1174
discodanman45 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: CA Posts: 9,728 danch27	HGA, pelican cases, and AI! https://youtu.be/JMqKJjMSgAI __________________ Updating my entire collection on Card Ladder. Lots to go... https://www.cardladder.com/showcase/IOBB7AY2qTVVKSgU9Aqj02kfF4I3

12-08-2022, 12:21 PM	#1157
jimmyjam1973 Member Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: Schertz, TX Posts: 6,554 jimmyjam1973	Observations from last weekends Shriners Show in San Antonio: 1. Attendance seemed to be way down. I thought maybe the US Soccer game affected it in the AM, but the afternoon wasn't much better. Sunday was even worse than the typical Sunday. 2. My sales we're down about 50% from what I usually do at that show. Pretty much the consensus among most of the dealers. Granted I don't have graded cards or extremely high-end stuff. 3. Not sure if it's economy, lack of stimulus checks, people buying other things for Xmas etc. One of my best customers who usually spends $500-$700 with me each show, spent $50.

12-09-2022, 08:37 AM	#1159
blackbears86 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: maine Posts: 17,133 blackbears86	Observations from a small regional show in Bangor, Maine last weekend. (about 75 tables, bi-monthly show) well attended throughout the day with no shortage of attendees Lot's of trading: the pelican boys were out in force. Like others have stated: several sales under $20, the best sale at my friends table was $300 (Patrice Bergeron young guns rookie PSA 10) Everything still really overpriced: A dealer told me he made so much $$ over the previous two years, he doesn't care if he sells or not, plus $30 for a table makes it easy to at least break even. He was just happy to see what he could get in from customers trading/selling. Retail: the glut is real: SO MUCH retail available. And still overpriced. My pickups: Shai Gilgeous Alexander 2018 absolute rookie materials auto for $75 and a few low key MJ cards. who was hot at the show? Tatum/Patty/Jaylon Brown/Jalen Hurts

12-09-2022, 09:41 AM	#1161
notfast Member Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: MD Posts: 4,045	As a pelican case snob, I wish we would stop calling them “pelicans boys”. None of these guys actually use real Pelican brand. It’s knock off Harbor freight at best.

12-09-2022, 09:58 AM	#1163
Nester99 Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Location: Canada Posts: 793	Or you could just stop trying to belittle and talk down to people in the hobby who use a carry case. It’s so cringe to read “peli bois” if you say it I think worse of you then I do of them.

12-09-2022, 11:55 AM	#1170
gabballplayer14 Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,598	RE: Pelican Cases It's easier (and way more secure) to carry one around shows than the beat up 2-row box that I used to use, or having 4 BGS graded card boxes in my bookbag. The crowd everyone talks about should be referred to as "hypebeastz" rather than Pelican Boys, because a lot of seasoned hobbyists have started to use similar cases to carry cards around shows, for a multitude of reasons. Anyway, get off my lawn!

12-09-2022, 12:17 PM	#1172
SupermanBrandon Banned Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: TN Posts: 15,843	Im fine with people carrying them around but the amount of space they take up on cases when Im trying to look at cards. Be courtious.