2024 Topps Heritage

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Jumbo is $1249 but I get what you are saying.

The thing you haven't factored in is the cost of labor and materials. That has more than doubled in some places post-Covid. And technically we are just now recovering from the last sports card crash that started end of 2021 and may have already bottomed out. So if you are waiting for the next crash cycle, it could take a few years.

But going back to cost, even if the market "crashes" you'll never see a $670 case of Jumbo again because it now costs more than that for shops and distributors to acquire. I'm also not expecting my grocery bill to go back down either though. A flatline of where we are at now is the more likely outcome IMO.

I just recently picked up 2023 topps series 2 jumbo case for $480.......

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

They are all or were Red Sox, one active. What's the issue?

Would have been much better as a Lynn/Rice/Fisk triple auto or a Lynn/Rice/Yaz triple auto....

[DarcyWinston]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

I ripped 2 cases and 4 loose boxes. I can't comment on the entire list as I just started sorting the base. I can tell you that my results are different. I had 18 each of card #'s 102 and 103. 120 I had 15. There are a couple cards not on this list that I only had 5-7.

My guess is that there aren't any "short printed" base, just really crappy collation

Theyre de facto short prints unless people are building 3-4 base sets a case. All I know is I completed my 2 base sets from strictly the bottom cards in each pack. If all cases have “crappy collation” then, each one of us then has our own “short print journey” to duplicate town.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by mikejones

I just recently picked up 2023 topps series 2 jumbo case for $480.......

Good lord where was that.

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by bub838

Good lord where was that.

LCS. Topps warehouse is loaded with product. They are offering direct accounts to order past product. I paid 480 for the case. I didn't ask my lcs how much he paid but must have been dirt cheap. Lcs was also offered heritage high which he got 1 case. Could have bought that for $480 but I opted for series 2 jumbo. Just wait it out. Topps will be overloaded with product sitting and will be forced to liquidate imo. At least the flagship stuff.

[parkerj33]

FYI, maybe everyone already knows this but the chrome set is indeed 100 players. 122 Josh Lowe is not listed on the checklist but he is the 100th chrome subject.


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[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Never say never.

If a product is too expensive no matter what the “factory cost” is and no one buys it, prices CAN go below costs.

Not too long ago, dealers were begging people to take their 1989 fleer and donruss boxes for $5. Heck, even 2001 upper deck golf could be found for $5 a box.

Sports cards are only worth as much as their intrinsic value.

Originally Posted by mikejones

I just recently picked up 2023 topps series 2 jumbo case for $480.......

Originally Posted by mikejones

LCS. Topps warehouse is loaded with product. They are offering direct accounts to order past product. I paid 480 for the case. I didn't ask my lcs how much he paid but must have been dirt cheap. Lcs was also offered heritage high which he got 1 case. Could have bought that for $480 but I opted for series 2 jumbo. Just wait it out. Topps will be overloaded with product sitting and will be forced to liquidate imo. At least the flagship stuff.

Yes, product CAN be clearanced out months later if it is a bad product or overproduced. I didn't mean for my comment to imply that no wax will ever go down. I was talking cost/price at release. If you are a patient collector you can always work a year backwards and just spend 2024 working on 2023 products. That option certainly exists.

But there is a silver lining in that as well. Despite Fanatics' flaws, even a dummy would take notice if their warehouse was overloaded with leftover product that nobody wants, and that type of situation will impact future decisions on production runs. I have no doubt there are employees who wouldn't know a baseball card from a Barbie doll but if their job is to account for and manage inventory, the red flags are going to be popping up everywhere when they've lost control of their warehouse. I can't imagine, even if Michael Rubin were the most stubborn guy on the planet, that they'd continue to increase production while acquiring more warehouse space for dead product. At some point you re-evaluate and try to get back to a baseline of selling out of most things.

I don't believe factory cost is going to drop anytime soon, but you'll see production decreases on the less desirable products.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Yes, product CAN be clearanced out months later if it is a bad product or overproduced. I didn't mean for my comment to imply that no wax will ever go down. I was talking cost/price at release. If you are a patient collector you can always work a year backwards and just spend 2024 working on 2023 products. That option certainly exists.

But there is a silver lining in that as well. Despite Fanatics' flaws, even a dummy would take notice if their warehouse was overloaded with leftover product that nobody wants, and that type of situation will impact future decisions on production runs. I have no doubt there are employees who wouldn't know a baseball card from a Barbie doll but if their job is to account for and manage inventory, the red flags are going to be popping up everywhere when they've lost control of their warehouse. I can't imagine, even if Michael Rubin were the most stubborn guy on the planet, that they'd continue to increase production while acquiring more warehouse space for dead product. At some point you re-evaluate and try to get back to a baseline of selling out of most things.

I don't believe factory cost is going to drop anytime soon, but you'll see production decreases on the less desirable products.

But you can’t 10x the hobby without increasing production!

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by parkerj33

FYI, maybe everyone already knows this but the chrome set is indeed 100 players. 122 Josh Lowe is not listed on the checklist but he is the 100th chrome subject.


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Thanks for the info.

Have you heard anything from Topps about why Trout and Yordan Alvarez don't have chromes? Or why Reggie Jackson has a box topper auto, but no actual box topper?

[parkerj33]

No official info, but my strong suspicion for all of them is they are keeping them For hhn. Same for yount


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[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I don't believe factory cost is going to drop anytime soon, but you'll see production decreases on the less desirable products.

The less successful products are, the less financial incentive Topps/Fanatics have to put effort and resources into making them good in quality -- they know there is a customer base that will buy them regardless of quality.

Topps' model is to price gouge initially to take advantage of the FOMO buyers, then drop prices later on when the buzz and interest have subsided.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The less successful products are, the less financial incentive Topps/Fanatics have to put effort and resources into making them good in quality -- they know there is a customer base that will buy them regardless of quality.

Topps' model is to price gouge initially to take advantage of the FOMO buyers, then drop prices later on when the buzz and interest have subsided.

You forgot to mention that topps also price gouges initially to satiate breaker demand.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You forgot to mention that topps also price gouges initially to satiate breaker demand.

100% this - THAT’s the major difference today as opposed to 10-20 years ago

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You forgot to mention that topps also price gouges initially to satiate breaker demand.

They set prices high initially to support the pricing model of breakers -- can't let people think they can buy a product for cheaper than what is being advertised.

[oldgoldy97]

Pre-2020: start low, let demand naturally raise the price

Post-2020: start at the artificially highest end price, lower it as product sits and gains dust

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Pre-2020: start low, let demand naturally raise the price

Post-2020: start at the artificially highest end price, lower it as product sits and gains dust

And who is paying the artificially highest end price?

Breaker bois, especially the degenerate ones who simply can’t wait.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

And who is paying the artificially highest end price?

Breaker bois, especially the degenerate ones who simply can’t wait.

Bingo!

[Skipscards]

Bought one of the 17 pack "giant" boxes from Target when they had that sale at release and had my youngest open it. She definitely beat the odds...

4 Red Bordered including Bobby Witt Jr
1 B&W (1 in 16 boxes. Ruiz)
1 Color Swap (1 in 24 boxes. Bobby Witt Jr)

[Sheld505]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Bought one of the 17 pack "giant" boxes from Target when they had that sale at release and had my youngest open it. She definitely beat the odds...

4 Red Bordered including Bobby Witt Jr
1 B&W (1 in 16 boxes. Ruiz)
1 Color Swap (1 in 24 boxes. Bobby Witt Jr)

The Target Megas are a good value. Way to complete the base set and get some variations too. I’ve pulled a B&W, a Carrol image, and swap in each.

[JDF5244]

I bought a Mega from the Target website and didn't get a single blue sparkle.... it was hands down the worst box of cards I've ever opened which was a bummer because I was excited to open and collect it.
The good news is that it serves as a good barrier to me buying any more of the product so at least I'll save some money.
JDF

[weatherwarrior]

Originally Posted by JDF5244

I bought a Mega from the Target website and didn't get a single blue sparkle.... it was hands down the worst box of cards I've ever opened which was a bummer because I was excited to open and collect it.

The good news is that it serves as a good barrier to me buying any more of the product so at least I'll save some money.

JDF

Target has what are called big boxes... they should have two sp red borders. They do not have the blue sparkles.

Check for those red borders.. they say white border on the back above the card number.

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[bub838]

Originally Posted by JDF5244

I bought a Mega from the Target website and didn't get a single blue sparkle.... it was hands down the worst box of cards I've ever opened which was a bummer because I was excited to open and collect it.
The good news is that it serves as a good barrier to me buying any more of the product so at least I'll save some money.
JDF

Blue sparkle come from the Walmart/Meijer Megas, not Target.

[LIONS RULE!]

Is it to early to talk about the autograph checklist for 2024 High number? There is still a laundry list iconic cards that would be great to have in the real one treatment. My top 3 wants are Steve Garvey, Robin Yount & Ron Cey.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by LIONS RULE!

Is it to early to talk about the autograph checklist for 2024 High number? There is still a laundry list iconic cards that would be great to have in the real one treatment. My top 3 wants are Steve Garvey, Robin Yount & Ron Cey.

Those are good choices. But we’ll see. I’d hope they get Carter and Sutton as cut autos. An Andy Messersmith auto would be neat too. Frank White, Amos Otis, and Dennis Leonard autos while we’re wishing.

[wilsonsingles]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You forgot to mention that topps also price gouges initially to satiate breaker demand.

far less precentage on cases of flagship Topps. Most breakers aren't breaking lots of cases of Series 1 & 2 or even update.

much more so on all other Topps products