Fernando Tatis Jr

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

Bad taste in the mouth from the last month's collapse. As of Sept 6 he was still -290 favorite to win the MVP and team fell out of the playoffs by going 5-18 from that point.
Bit of regency bias between soto and him I'd say. Neither team made the playoffs but the Pads collapsed late (Nats had the built in excuse of trading/tanking). Soto started slow but was hot at the end of the year, Tatis was hot during the middle of the year and ended slow.

Spot on.

Tatis has massive talent and people can be far too capricious on their player investments for a sport largely comprised of hot and cold streaks.

I will say though that Soto is a better pure hitter (has the potential to be one of the most complete hitters the game has seen), and this isn’t lost on even casual fans. Tatis will end up with more bombs if he stays healthy and if he can keep his average above .300 to accompany the power numbers, he’s got another fantastic shot at MVP. Should be a fun race once the season gets underway.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

Bad taste in the mouth from the last month's collapse. As of Sept 6 he was still -290 favorite to win the MVP and team fell out of the playoffs by going 5-18 from that point.
Bit of regency bias between soto and him I'd say. Neither team made the playoffs but the Pads collapsed late (Nats had the built in excuse of trading/tanking). Soto started slow but was hot at the end of the year, Tatis was hot during the middle of the year and ended slow.

Yeah, Tatis' performance declined as the covid bubble prices started to pop. Even during his short hot streaks, his card prices continued to decline.

A lot of people got caught buying at the peak at the beginning of the season and were left holding heavy bags towards the end, thus not a whole lot of enthusiasm.

May be a good off season/lockout pick up at his lows, if you can handle the injury risks.

[seanrs1]

Do Tatis collectors think he is less popular than Soto, Acuna, Franco, Guerrero Jr., and Ohtani? I am not debating his performance down the stretch...just think its strange that this thread is not very active compared to the others. Not a lot of people talking/hyping Tatis or showing off off season pick ups was my point.

[Danderlion]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do Tatis collectors think he is less popular than Soto, Acuna, Franco, Guerrero Jr., and Ohtani? I am not debating his performance down the stretch...just think its strange that this thread is not very active compared to the others. Not a lot of people talking/hyping Tatis or showing off off season pick ups was my point.

I don't. Not sure why the thread is slower, but he was being pushed as the face of baseball last year. Based off of sales he is still very popular. I love Topps Chrome Refractors, so I monitor these prices. In PSA 10 form, Tatis still sells better than Acuna, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani. Soto and Franco don't have topps chrome, but if they did Soto would be higher than Tatis but Franco would be lower than Tatis. Here is my order, although 2-6 are all very close:

1. Soto
2. Tatis
3. Ohtani
4. Acuna
5. Guerrero Jr
6. Franco

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Danderlion

I don't. Not sure why the thread is slower, but he was being pushed as the face of baseball last year. Based off of sales he is still very popular. I love Topps Chrome Refractors, so I monitor these prices. In PSA 10 form, Tatis still sells better than Acuna, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani. Soto and Franco don't have topps chrome, but if they did Soto would be higher than Tatis but Franco would be lower than Tatis. Here is my order, although 2-6 are all very close:

1. Soto
2. Tatis
3. Ohtani
4. Acuna
5. Guerrero Jr
6. Franco

Is this order based on popularity, collector demand, or current off season prices?

[Danderlion]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is this order based on popularity, collector demand, or current off season prices?

This order is generally based off of popularity of the TC refactor and my own bias

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Danderlion

This order is generally based off of popularity of the TC refactor and my own bias

Like a lot of people on here these are the 6 main guys I collect and I follow their threads and prices pretty closely. My favorite two players to follow are Tatis and Ohtani. Tatis because he reminds me a lot of collecting Ken Griffey Jr. as a kid. Ohtani because he is doing something that has not been done before and seems like an amazing human being. My personal order of preference in collecting right now (always subject to change) is

1. Ohtani
2. Tatis Jr.
3. Acuna Jr.
4. Soto
5. Franco
6. Guerrero Jr.

In terms of money it seems to be flowing this way
1. Soto
2. Franco
3. Ohtani
4. Acuna Jr.
5. Tatis Jr.
6. Guerrero Jr.

In terms of collector preferences on this board it seems to be
1. Soto
2. Acuna Jr.
3. Franco
4. Tatis Jr.
5. Guerrero Jr.
6. Ohtani


What does everyone think?

[theshowandme]

Nice pickup for $21!

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Yeah, Tatis' performance declined as the covid bubble prices started to pop. Even during his short hot streaks, his card prices continued to decline.

A lot of people got caught buying at the peak at the beginning of the season and were left holding heavy bags towards the end, thus not a whole lot of enthusiasm.

May be a good off season/lockout pick up at his lows, if you can handle the injury risks.

The injury risk is the elephant in the room, unfortunately.

[seanrs1]

I get the injury risk...and I am one of those people that bought a lot at the peak (especially the graded cards I bought) that now sell for 50% of what I paid for them. Still seems strange that this thread is not very active and there seems to be little enthusiasm for his cards.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

The injury risk is the elephant in the room, unfortunately.

Agree. If he can go injury free this season and put together another season like his last...look out.

I will also say re: Soto. He's tops for a reason, but he also has a lot less cards than these other guys. Re: "Flagships": He is only in TCU and TU. The others have Series 2, Update, both Chromes, etc. A lot less to pick from on the more hobby friendly releases.

[stinkus]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Like a lot of people on here these are the 6 main guys I collect and I follow their threads and prices pretty closely. My favorite two players to follow are Tatis and Ohtani. Tatis because he reminds me a lot of collecting Ken Griffey Jr. as a kid. Ohtani because he is doing something that has not been done before and seems like an amazing human being. My personal order of preference in collecting right now (always subject to change) is

1. Ohtani
2. Tatis Jr.
3. Acuna Jr.
4. Soto
5. Franco
6. Guerrero Jr.

In terms of money it seems to be flowing this way
1. Soto
2. Franco
3. Ohtani
4. Acuna Jr.
5. Tatis Jr.
6. Guerrero Jr.

In terms of collector preferences on this board it seems to be
1. Soto
2. Acuna Jr.
3. Franco
4. Tatis Jr.
5. Guerrero Jr.
6. Ohtani


What does everyone think?

I think Guerrero is way underpriced based on this post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by stinkus

I think Guerrero is way underpriced based on this post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

But are my observations correct? What is your order?

[JoeAdam]

I think it's hard for West Coast players to get the same national media coverage. Vlad gets the whole Canadian market and Ohtani gets the Asian market.

[stinkus]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

But are my observations correct? What is your order?

My particular collecting order as far as total value percentage of my whole collection.
Soto 30% (got in mostly on the low end and my collection is worth 2-3x what i invested)
Acuna 30% (same)
(These two are very close)
Guerrero 20%
Tatis 10%
Bichette 5%
Ohtani 5%
I have zero wander Franco. At this point and with how I’ve done with the other guys, I’m ok missing the boat on him and his prices are too high to get in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NCWolf]

Soto and Guerrero are “safer” investments or collections at the moment.

Tatis
Acuna
Ohtani
Franco

Those four you can just throw in a bag and guess at who’s going to 1) remain healthy and 2) give you another decade of what they have shown.

[padremurph]

Nice to see this thread get some action. I'd agree that there's definitely some recency bias. I bet if Tatis and Soto's seasons were flipped (strong start vs strong finish), Tatis would be selling for more than Soto. Tatis still led the NL in homers, even missing all that time. I'm looking at Baseball Reference and Tatis lead Soto slightly in Offensive WAR, and Soto slightly in overall WAR.

Tatis definitely seems prone to being nicked up, but can we really say there's a big elephant in the room when Acuna is missing a year with his injury and Ohtani had TJ? All it'll take is one Tatis hot streak and everyone will be completely back on the Tatis bandwagon.

Anyways, here's one of my favorite Tatis cards, given I was at the game

[hermanotarjeta]

Sure, every player is at risk for injury, but the other red lights for me are his general mistrust of the medical community - refusing shoulder surgery this offseason and declining the vaccine - and the motorcycle accident. I’m questioning his judgment and don’t personally want to have too much coin in his cards when there are other more conservative options.

I guess it’s high risk, high reward - when he’s on he’s fun to watch, but you have to be prepared to get your heart ripped out of your chest. YOLO.

[TruBlueBrewCrew]

Pulled this one from an ASRC box. 22/25. Really beautiful card in person, the color doesn’t pop much in the picture.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Sure, every player is at risk for injury, but the other red lights for me are his general mistrust of the medical community - refusing shoulder surgery this offseason and declining the vaccine - and the motorcycle accident. I’m questioning his judgment and don’t personally want to have too much coin in his cards when there are other more conservative options.

I guess it’s high risk, high reward - when he’s on he’s fun to watch, but you have to be prepared to get your heart ripped out of your chest. YOLO.

You bring up some very good points about character/judgement concerns! You could even mention that he gave up a lot of future earnings to borrow money up front from the shady company. Seems strange that a guy with a decent signing bonus and coming from a well to do family with his father's baseball earnings would need a shady loan like that. So I agree the risk is real! But the reward is also very real (most popular baseball player of this generation).

I am actually more concerned about Guerrero Jr.'s future conditioning and ending up like Prince Fielder.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

You bring up some very good points about character/judgement concerns! You could even mention that he gave up a lot of future earnings to borrow money up front from the shady company. Seems strange that a guy with a decent signing bonus and coming from a well to do family with his father's baseball earnings would need a shady loan like that. So I agree the risk is real! But the reward is also very real (most popular baseball player of this generation).

I am actually more concerned about Guerrero Jr.'s future conditioning and ending up like Prince Fielder.

That’s the first time I heard about the advance loan and I read up about it - that’s crazy! I guess you really never know what is going on behind the scenes.

[HarryLime]

I think the modern collecting community, as a whole, just isn't built to handle this many "young phenoms" to put their money into. So many of the players you mentioned (and a few you didn't mention) seem like yet another example of a "sure bet" prospect that's going to arrive and immediately perform.

I don't think we could get the board to agree on a specific ranking on the top players spend your money on. That's not bad when it's 2018 and people are basically just going after Acuna and Soto, but in 2022 when there's easily at least 7 players (I'm adding Bichette) that members are battling it out for, there just won't appear to be the same fervor on the board because it's being spread out in so many different directions.

Arthur

[stinkus]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I think the modern collecting community, as a whole, just isn't built to handle this many "young phenoms" to put their money into. So many of the players you mentioned (and a few you didn't mention) seem like yet another example of a "sure bet" prospect that's going to arrive and immediately perform.

I don't think we could get the board to agree on a specific ranking on the top players spend your money on. That's not bad when it's 2018 and people are basically just going after Acuna and Soto, but in 2022 when there's easily at least 7 players (I'm adding Bichette) that members are battling it out for, there just won't appear to be the same fervor on the board because it's being spread out in so many different directions.

Arthur

Agreed. The old me used to try to collect everyone and make sure i had a stash. I’ve learned in recent years to just keep a focus to who is “safe” or at the very least someone who i have a large profit built it and can afford to take some risks for more profit.

[gmoney328]

PSA 10 around 100-115. Wow.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

That’s the first time I heard about the advance loan and I read up about it - that’s crazy! I guess you really never know what is going on behind the scenes.

I just read the article....I don't think it means a whole lot. If someone offered you $800,000 as an 18 year old, who doesn't say yes to that without fully thinking through the ramifications?

Instant gratification.

This says it all:
In 2018, Tatis spoke to Rosenthal about his deal with BLA, saying, "If I'm a successful player and make big money, I'm not going to care about giving that money away. That will be nothing if I make all that big money."