Potential Worth of Soccer Cards as Market Grows

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Prospectorsadvantage

Havertz is not a b level prospect.

Cr7 and Messi autos are over produced.

Count the number of licensed autos they have.

Count the number of soccer fans around the world.

Their autos are not even close to being overproduced.

[yiguiri2002]

I think this needs to be repeated:

No matter who you are talking about, they don't need to be the next Messi/CR7.

If Messi or CR7 had a Prizm RC, they both will be over 500. Silvers over 3k. And other modern greats like Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Zlatan will definitively be over 100/1k. The market has changed since people from other sports "discovered" soccer.

Prices for young prospects are lower than that for the most part. Save for Mbappe, none one has a base Prizm/Chrome over 3 figures.

[YayNJ]

Am I the only one that's gutted that PROBSTEIN is churning out cards now? I almost shed a tear when I noticed they were bulk selling Sancho a couple of weeks ago

[Raj3sh]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

Am I the only one that's gutted that PROBSTEIN is churning out cards now? I almost shed a tear when I noticed he was bulk selling Sancho a couple of weeks ago

Its a consignment company. They are not his cards.

[thekiddfan]

Well said!!

Messi and CR7 autos are heavily underproduced honestly as compared to potential demand when the hobby opens up more

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think this needs to be repeated:

No matter who you are talking about, they don't need to be the next Messi/CR7.

If Messi or CR7 had a Prizm RC, they both will be over 500. Silvers over 3k. And other modern greats like Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Zlatan will definitively be over 100/1k. The market has changed since people from other sports "discovered" soccer.

Prices for young prospects are lower than that for the most part. Save for Mbappe, none one has a base Prizm/Chrome over 3 figures.

[Dizz86]

I am sure that soccer market will follow those NBA, NFL, MLB ones. It already reached the critical mass. But I would say that soccer market will be most vulnerable to fall.
Simply soccer is too different to those other sports.

-there isn't just one NBA league and you can simply count how many titles each 'goat' won. and in total there is like 300 players in NBA. In soccer there is 10k players. There is CL, but also national leagues. 30 goals scored in spain or france are not the same as in Italy or germany. And guess what, there is 3rd comeptiton with the most valuable title: World cup. here you might get very unlucky if you got born in smaller country, which has zero chance to win. You also have like 4 chances to win the WC title in a career. And guess what, there is Euro, Copa, Clubs WC... not an easy to pick a goat.

-no draft, there will be neverending story about rookies, rookie cards/stickers, true rookies.... it won't help to make rookie collection stable as in other sports. Old collector will continue to collect true rookies.

-Many people who invested now in soccer are not following it, so if they will need money they will simply start to sell the soccer cards out of any other sports.

-not many young talents are reaching the stardom. These guys were promoted more then Sancho, Havertz, Felix to become the best: Balotelli, Dybala, Goetze, Bojan,... Only Dybala has a chance still to become memorable.

=> let collect anyone what he wants. It is known in real life, that people needs to hear what to do, how to act, what to buy, what to believe in, what to collect...

=> I will still spend 10k $ on the cards I like (Flawless, and players I respect), rather then to following 3-4 cards: Chrome/Optic/Prizm refractors PSA 10 of Mbappe, Sancho, Havertz.Vinicius. Not sure if you can buy all 4 for 10k $

[fadster]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think this needs to be repeated:

No matter who you are talking about, they don't need to be the next Messi/CR7.

If Messi or CR7 had a Prizm RC, they both will be over 500. Silvers over 3k. And other modern greats like Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Zlatan will definitively be over 100/1k. The market has changed since people from other sports "discovered" soccer.

Prices for young prospects are lower than that for the most part. Save for Mbappe, none one has a base Prizm/Chrome over 3 figures.

You don't even need Prizm for those numbers, those prices have long sailed on those players. Messi and CR7 rookies are $20k+/$4k+ in gem for megacracks cards/ panini stickers and even the last PSA 10 Ronaldinho 1999 rookie was $2k, and in this market a PSA 10 1995 Ronaldo would easily clear $1k. I wouldn't put Zlatan anywhere near the other two though, they usually make top 10/20 all time lists whereas Zlatan doesn't even scratch the top 50, he didn't even make the fourfourtwo top 50 of the last 25 years. He does though have the advantage of recency bias, has a raised profile in the US due to his MLS time and his rookie is elevated in price and profile by it's rarity.

In all seriousness though I think right now prices for young players are at least on a par with NFL rookies at the silver/refractor level. Sancho Chrome is on a Par with Kyler Murray Prizm, Joao Felix chrome around Daniel Jones. Going back another year Mbappe is in the rough ballpark of Lamar Jackson (who already has an MVP).

Where I think the biggest lag is the low numbered high end stuff. For now the hobby highs are the $57k 1958 Alfa Pele and the $20k+ Megacracks Messi and these are going to form psychological barriers. I don't think usual rainbow multipliers will work on the high end because of those numbers. When you have Contender Bradys, Exquisite Lebrons and Bowman Trouts raising the ceiling it gives room for everything else to move. It's psychologically easier to pay up for Zion and Acuna when you have those high ceilings but using traditional multiplies parts of the Mbappe and Sancho rainbow will lie beyond the Messi ceiling and that is a tough sell.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by fadster

You don't even need Prizm for those numbers, those prices have long sailed on those players. Messi and CR7 rookies are $20k+/$4k+ in gem for megacracks cards/ panini stickers and even the last PSA 10 Ronaldinho 1999 rookie was $2k, and in this market a PSA 10 1995 Ronaldo would easily clear $1k. I wouldn't put Zlatan anywhere near the other two though, they usually make top 10/20 all time lists whereas Zlatan doesn't even scratch the top 50, he didn't even make the fourfourtwo top 50 of the last 25 years. He does though have the advantage of recency bias, has a raised profile in the US due to his MLS time and his rookie is elevated in price and profile by it's rarity.

In all seriousness though I think right now prices for young players are at least on a par with NFL rookies at the silver/refractor level. Sancho Chrome is on a Par with Kyler Murray Prizm, Joao Felix chrome around Daniel Jones. Going back another year Mbappe is in the rough ballpark of Lamar Jackson (who already has an MVP).

Where I think the biggest lag is the low numbered high end stuff. For now the hobby highs are the $57k 1958 Alfa Pele and the $20k+ Megacracks Messi and these are going to form psychological barriers. I don't think usual rainbow multipliers will work on the high end because of those numbers. When you have Contender Bradys, Exquisite Lebrons and Bowman Trouts raising the ceiling it gives room for everything else to move. It's psychologically easier to pay up for Zion and Acuna when you have those high ceilings but using traditional multiplies parts of the Mbappe and Sancho rainbow will lie beyond the Messi ceiling and that is a tough sell.

I think when it comes to Stickers/Megacracks it's really hard to draw a comparison. I think the new market will shift to cards for new players so I was trying to compared cards to would-be cards.

What I'm trying to do is put things into perspective. None of these players have to be Messi or CR7 to justify these prices because within the same context, they both will be way more expensive.

Now, if people don't think they'll get to that Neymar/Zlatan/Suarez/Lewandowski level...that's fine. But that's part of prospecting in any sport.

[Jeff1970Red]

If this is any indication of future value, look out:

2019 social media followers

Total Followers
Cristiano Ronaldo— 399.6 million followers
Neymar— 236 million followers
Lionel Messi — 230.1 million followers
LeBron James— 121.8 million followers
Virat Kohli— 117 million followers
David Beckham— 112 million followers
Ronaldinho— 103.8 million followers
James Rodriguez—95.3 million followers
Gareth Bale— 89.2 million followers
Andres Iniesta— 83.8 million followers

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by Jeff1970Red

If this is any indication of future value, look out:

2019 social media followers

Total Followers
Cristiano Ronaldo— 399.6 million followers
Neymar— 236 million followers
Lionel Messi — 230.1 million followers
LeBron James— 121.8 million followers
Virat Kohli— 117 million followers
David Beckham— 112 million followers
Ronaldinho— 103.8 million followers
James Rodriguez—95.3 million followers
Gareth Bale— 89.2 million followers
Andres Iniesta— 83.8 million followers

Interesting numbers there for sure. Even though there isn’t obviously a direct correlation to the hobby, these are good indicators of who has potential for some growth as new collectors come in.

I’ll say it again, Neymar is a value buy right now.


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[Raj3sh]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Interesting numbers there for sure. Even though there isn’t obviously a direct correlation to the hobby, these are good indicators of who has potential for some growth as new collectors come in.

I’ll say it again, Neymar is a value buy right now.


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Neymar have to either move back to spain or move to england. Also there are only 1 or 2 worldcups left for him. Not sure if PSG will sell both mbappe and neymar in a single window.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I’ll say it again, Neymar is a value buy right now.

Why?

Yes his value is way down compared to where it was prior to the 2014 WC, but what do you think is going to drive his prices higher?

- He's 28 years old now, and will be 30 prior to the next World Cup.
- He plays for a club that is a "big fish in a small pond", and that has accomplished very little in the Champions League.
- He's not even the best player on his own club.

His time has come and gone, and now other, more exciting, younger players are getting all the media (and collector) attention.

So I'm curious what you think will drive his prices higher again...

[indyguy]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Why?

Yes his value is way down compared to where it was prior to the 2014 WC, but what do you think is going to drive his prices higher?

- He's 28 years old now, and will be 30 prior to the next World Cup.
- He plays for a club that is a "big fish in a small pond", and that has accomplished very little in the Champions League.
- He's not even the best player on his own club.

His time has come and gone, and now other, more exciting, younger players are getting all the media (and collector) attention.

So I'm curious what you think will drive his prices higher again...

To keep it short, he’s a good player and with other player’s prices being higher, grab him as a lower buy right now, because more and more people will start to “value” him at lower pricing.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Why?

Yes his value is way down compared to where it was prior to the 2014 WC, but what do you think is going to drive his prices higher?

- He's 28 years old now, and will be 30 prior to the next World Cup.
- He plays for a club that is a "big fish in a small pond", and that has accomplished very little in the Champions League.
- He's not even the best player on his own club.

His time has come and gone, and now other, more exciting, younger players are getting all the media (and collector) attention.

So I'm curious what you think will drive his prices higher again...

The main reason I think Neymar is a value buy right now is that the entire market is rising and he will see trickle down effect from this along with other top stars. When more money comes in, it starts being diversified.

Neymar being one of the top 5-10 players in the game certainly helps his case. He does have the hype/WC letdown from the past working against him, but redemption is still possible in that regard.

To be clear, I think there is room for growth in his early stuff, first prizms, and low numbered parallels. I wouldn’t advocate buying him as liberally as Messi/CR7.

Again, I could be wrong, but a few bucks thrown in on Neymar at this point in the market are very unlikely to be lost. The only logical direction for his cards right now would be up.


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[ForzaMilan92]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Why?

Yes his value is way down compared to where it was prior to the 2014 WC, but what do you think is going to drive his prices higher?

- He's 28 years old now, and will be 30 prior to the next World Cup.
- He plays for a club that is a "big fish in a small pond", and that has accomplished very little in the Champions League.
- He's not even the best player on his own club.

His time has come and gone, and now other, more exciting, younger players are getting all the media (and collector) attention.

So I'm curious what you think will drive his prices higher again...

IMO, you're really overthinking it. Neymar's prices will drive higher, well... because he's Neymar.

As convincing as all of your negative statistics are, none of that matters. Every soccer fan on the face of this planet knows Neymar and he is idolized by millions around the world. As more new money comes into the soccer card market, everyone will jump to Neymar when Ronaldo and Messi are already sky-high.

[Ianhatcher]

And every soccer fan on the planet knows his diving and playacting skills are so legendary he'd even give Robben a run for his money in that department and that is saying something.

If he'd stayed at Barca we'd be having a very different conversation but he moved to a B league and has been largely very injury prone since he got there.

Even with all that I would expect the needle to move on him some what as he's still Neymar and name recognition matters. He just didn't reach the heights that people expected but that can change.

I personally think he should have won the D'or in 2015. He was the best player and clutch for Barca that whole season but you aren't going to not give it to Messi.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by ForzaMilan92

IMO, you're really overthinking it. Neymar's prices will drive higher, well... because he's Neymar.

As convincing as all of your negative statistics are, none of that matters. Every soccer fan on the face of this planet knows Neymar and he is idolized by millions around the world. As more new money comes into the soccer card market, everyone will jump to Neymar when Ronaldo and Messi are already sky-high.

Most of the soccer fans I know think he's an over-rated, whiny, diver.

I get the "rising tide lifts all boats" argument, but I think that there are a LOT of more attractive "boats" for money to flow towards than Neymar's.

[spotted penguins]

Havertz at striker today, has a brace already. Wow.

[juandylan]

Originally Posted by spotted penguins

Havertz at striker today, has a brace already. Wow.

Make that two.
Bremen was terrible defending both goals though.

[spotted penguins]

Originally Posted by juandylan

Make that two.
Bremen was terrible defending both goals though.

They looked #@#@#@#@ at defending, but he's a smart guy to find that open space on both set pieces. Pretty good for a center mid to be sniffing out those headers.

[pattymahomeboy]

Originally Posted by juandylan

Make that two.
Bremen was terrible defending both goals though.

Havertz is the real deal... Probably best young talent in Bundy. Completely overlooked due to BVD. Speaking of which BVD set is now sold out on topps.com. Look for this baby to run up....

[Ianhatcher]

Euroboxbreakers right now is just laughing going KAI-CHING!

Personally think he's overated but a decent player but hey people going to invest in the hot player.

[jjeanius]

Of all of the rated rookies in Donruss, only Sancho and Havertz have Topps Chrome RC's thus far...and production on Bundy was far, FAR less than that of UEFA. IMO this matters. All things being equal (or when comparing players with similar potential), I will look at this type of stuff when choosing who to buy.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by jjeanius

Of all of the rated rookies in Donruss, only Sancho and Havertz have Topps Chrome RC's thus far...and production on Bundy was far, FAR less than that of UEFA. IMO this matters. All things being equal (or when comparing players with similar potential), I will look at this type of stuff when choosing who to buy.

You are correct. This is why I was saying a few days ago to buy his Bundesliga TC when you see it on eBay and was predicting a spike. I admittedly didn’t see the spike happening this quickly however. I guess that’s what two goals in your first game back will do!


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[yaoming]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Interesting numbers there for sure. Even though there isn’t obviously a direct correlation to the hobby, these are good indicators of who has potential for some growth as new collectors come in.

I’ll say it again, Neymar is a value buy right now.


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great numbers/stats, yes.

agree with above though.
majority of those fans don't even collect trading cards I m sure
as you can learn from basketball market, the "market" is controlled/determined mainly by "investors" who set the price, majority obviously in the US.
if there are not many people collect soccer cards, there is nothing for the investor to buy up certain soccer cards, the profit is not there to make