@itsvegasdave “The Sports Card Market Will Collapse”

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by Dusty1985

He’s played a half a year.
Are you always glass half full?
Give him 4-5 years then judge something.
Kid should be a yearly all star.

Do yourself a favor and just ignore him....always a hot take, surprised he's still even on the boards will all the nonsense spewed....

[k13]

Originally Posted by Dusty1985

He’s played a half a year.
Are you always glass half full?
Give him 4-5 years then judge something.
Kid should be a yearly all star.

By then no one will care as much and moved on to the next 19 year old hype.

2002-2015 topps flagship...how many rookies people even care about out of thousands?

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by k13

Plus franco is not even that great.
Plays in Tampa. On pace for 14hr 80 rbis .800 ops
Short with not that much power.
Terrible running bases.

Once he's not 20 anymore no one will care about him and move on to the next hype.

You seriously need to get off Blowout and find one single thing you enjoy in life as you are always miserable on here.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

You seriously need to get off Blowout and find one single thing you enjoy in life as you are always miserable on here.

He’s not entirely wrong.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by ksemmel

You seriously need to get off Blowout and find one single thing you enjoy in life as you are always miserable on here.

Not happening. He is one of those that enjoy's living a negative life. I don't understand those types, but he is definitely one of them. He isn't changing. I am glad blowout isn't one of those sites that bans people right and left, but he needs to be on that list for sure.

[chezball]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

He’s not entirely wrong.

That one out of a thousand might be about him being right.

[chezball]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Not happening. He is one of those that enjoy's living a negative life. I don't understand those types, but he is definitely one of them. He isn't changing. I am glad blowout isn't one of those sites that bans people right and left, but he needs to be on that list for sure.

He's been banned everywhere else.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

He’s not entirely wrong.

Yes he is. Thousands of prospects are not labeled "can't miss". So to say 99.999% do not live up to the hype is completely and utterly wrong. Some people suck in the minors, and live up to the same "hype" in the majors too. The number that live up to the hype may only be 1%, but that is far greater than .001%. He is wrong. Completely wrong.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Not happening. He is one of those that enjoy's living a negative life. I don't understand those types, but he is definitely one of them. He isn't changing. I am glad blowout isn't one of those sites that bans people right and left, but he needs to be on that list for sure.

Some people aren't happy unless they are unhappy....

[auburn35]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The CL indexes for each sport contain every card they have in their database. For baseball, that’s 2939 cards. It’s not perfect. But it’s a decent look at popular cards within the hobby.

Thanks for providing the represented number of cards in the CL index. Interesting to see that both sites appear to have much different datasets. Would you be able to provide a 90-day view of that CL index for comparison?

Originally Posted by Danderlion

The market should be expected to be down over the last 90 days. Khal stated over the last year though, so I don't think this is a good comparison.

If you look back at what I wrote, I wasn't attempting a straight comparison between to two, I was asking for clarification on what was represented in the CL index. I even noted the differences in datasets, wouldn't provide a true comparison. Just the first chart I came across, while trying to find out more on the baseball index being discussed.

As you mentioned, you believe the market should be down (not my interest) over the past 90-days, so I've asked Khal or anyone with that CL info to share similar 90-day numbers from that CL index.

Will both charts show a similar 90-day trend or is the CL index selective enough with what they track to still show a gain? With an apparent difference in cards tracked, it might be interesting to see the results.

[KhalDrogo]

90 day baseball index is basically flat. 14110 to 14702.

The indexes are averaging of the prices of each card included, so high end does prop up the indexes. Each index they create is set to 1,000 at time 0, which is the earliest sale of any card they have dating back to 2003. So the baseball index doesn’t imply that the average card is worth $14k. Just that the average card included has gone up 14x since 2003.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Thank God Juan Soto is that one in 100,000.

How hyped was Soto as a prospect? Feels like it wasn’t until after his 2nd season that he really took off???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[auburn35]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

90 day baseball index is basically flat. 14110 to 14702.

The indexes are averaging of the prices of each card included, so high end does prop up the indexes. Each index they create is set to 1,000 at time 0, which is the earliest sale of any card they have dating back to 2003. So the baseball index doesn’t imply that the average card is worth $14k. Just that the average card included has gone up 14x since 2003.

Thanks. So the CL Baseball index is up 4% over the past 90-days?

Also, it looks like I misinterpreted the other chart and have no idea how many cards they are actually tracking. There's a hidden blurb which notes "All indices started at 10,000 on January 1, 2021". So if I'm now looking at that data correctly (16,500 isn't the cards tracked ), it appears their Baseball data is up 65%, in a nearly similar full year of tracking, compared with the 150% CL Baseball index.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by auburn35

Thanks. So the CL Baseball index is up 4% over the past 90-days?

Also, it looks like I misinterpreted the other chart and have no idea how many cards they are actually tracking. There's a hidden blurb which notes "All indices started at 10,000 on January 1, 2021". So if I'm now looking at that data correctly (16,500 isn't the cards tracked ), it appears their Baseball data is up 65%, in a nearly similar full year of tracking, compared with the 150% CL Baseball index.

Correct. But like I said, the high-end skews it. These vintage record breakers this fall have driven that increase.

CL has low (<$500), mid ($500-5000), and high (>$5000) indexes as well. But not broken down by sport yet. For the last three months, low end is down 21%, mid down 9%, and high end up 5%.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

How hyped was Soto as a prospect? Feels like it wasn’t until after his 2nd season that he really took off???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Soto wasn't super hyped as a prospect because he broke in to the majors so quickly.

His BCA was $70 in Nov 2018 and was over $100 by opening day. Using the same method I did for this year's guys would put him at A-, which is right where I had him on my list. He got off to a hot start that certainly pushed his prices up and would have had him a Grade A at callup. By the ASB, which counts some MLB time, he was up to $275. That put him just short of Acuna and about half of Vlad.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

90 day baseball index is basically flat. 14110 to 14702.

The indexes are averaging of the prices of each card included, so high end does prop up the indexes. Each index they create is set to 1,000 at time 0, which is the earliest sale of any card they have dating back to 2003. So the baseball index doesn’t imply that the average card is worth $14k. Just that the average card included has gone up 14x since 2003.

That's an annualized return of roughly 15%. We've been about 30% since I started tracking in 2017.

[k13]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

The true GOATs have never “corrected”. There’s never been a bad time to buy a high grade: ‘52 Topps Mantle, ‘79 Topps Gretzky, ‘86 Fleer Jordan, ‘80 Topps Montana, ‘00 Contenders Brady auto, etc.

Other cards might have a correction, but those cards (along with a few others) are like buying a Picasso.

Great read.

[ThoseBackPages]

im still losing lots of auctions

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

im still losing lots of auctions

Same here.

[3rdpedal]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

im still losing lots of auctions

same here. and on Cole Tucker stuff... which is telling since it shouldn't be a very competitive space.

[Pixman1]

Bidding on certain players remains strong. But there are a ton of players who have no bid activity at all and these listings far outweigh the collector interest. Basically any rookie pitcher not named Mize for instance.

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by Pixman1

Bidding on certain players remains strong. But there are a ton of players who have no bid activity at all and these listings far outweigh the collector interest. Basically any rookie pitcher not named Mize for instance.

i was always told that pitchers were bad "investments"...i kinda agree, unless the dude is established already, or you just really like the dude.

[SupermanBrandon]

I lost 7 auctions last night for 2-3x what they would've done 6-9 months ago. But base paper Lux RCs are down from peak. Ugh!

[MoreToppsPlease]

Happily paying a lot less than over the summer and spring. Everyone losing auctions must be poorer now from being able to flip for less.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I lost 7 auctions last night for 2-3x what they would've done 6-9 months ago. But base paper Lux RCs are down from peak. Ugh!

Agree. Still some residual good deals out there but overall—good stuff seems to be on the upswing.