HOF Pace Tracker

[atk825]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Longevity. Rice has more than 2.5x as many hits.
944 to 2452
Counting stats still matter. No one would question Judge as being a better player with a much higher peak. Rice was very good for a very long time and that is usually what is rewarded come ballot time

I mean they already have identical WARs. Judge is just a much, much, much better offensive player...and if Jim Rice gets in based on being "the most feared" bat, then Judge is a near certain lock with 3 50+ HR seasons, especially in an era with severely depressed offensive stats. He's going to get to accumulate, so this will become more irrelevant, but he's already broken the most HR in the first 1000 games and still has like 85 games left.

[atk825]

Ah, I just realized that Aaron Judge has the fun fact of being born on April 26, 1992.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Longevity. Rice has more than 2.5x as many hits.
944 to 2452
Counting stats still matter. No one would question Judge as being a better player with a much higher peak. Rice was very good for a very long time and that is usually what is rewarded come ballot time

Roy Campanella got in with 1161 hits, 260 HR and 856 RBIs. He did have 3 MVPs and a WS Championship, but Judge isn't that far off after 10 seasons.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by rats60

Roy Campanella got in with 1161 hits, 260 HR and 856 RBIs. He did have 3 MVPs and a WS Championship, but Judge isn't that far off after 10 seasons.

Campy didn't get the chance to play in the MLB until he was 26 because he was black. Then he was considered the greatest catcher of all-time and a 3 time MVP and was still playing when he was paralyzed at 35. Anyway you slice it Campy is HOF but you can't really use his counting stats to compare him to modern players.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by atk825

I mean they already have identical WARs. Judge is just a much, much, much better offensive player...and if Jim Rice gets in based on being "the most feared" bat, then Judge is a near certain lock with 3 50+ HR seasons, especially in an era with severely depressed offensive stats. He's going to get to accumulate, so this will become more irrelevant, but he's already broken the most HR in the first 1000 games and still has like 85 games left.

Yes, but you said "there's nothing Rice has that Aaron Judge hasn't done" and that is just not true. Counting stats and having a nice long carrer matter. Judge has yet to even qualify for playing time for HOF enshrinment and only has 944 hits. Judge will be a HOF unless something tragic happens. BUT he still probably needs a couple of seasons to lock it up.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Campy didn't get the chance to play in the MLB until he was 26 because he was black. Then he was considered the greatest catcher of all-time and a 3 time MVP and was still playing when he was paralyzed at 35. Anyway you slice it Campy is HOF but you can't really use his counting stats to compare him to modern players.

Sure you can. First of all Campy wasn't the greatest catcher of all time. The same year he was elected to the HOF, Mickey Cochrane was chosen the greatest catcher of all time and Bill Dickey the greatest living catcher.

Campanells's career was pretty much over when he had his car accident. He hit .219 and .242 his previous two seasons and the Dodgers had John Roseboro, who was an AS that next season, ready to take over.

Campanella is the perfect comp for a player like Judge, who hasn't had a long career, for what he needs to do to make the HOF without hitting traditional counting statistical milestones.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by rats60

Sure you can. First of all Campy wasn't the greatest catcher of all time. The same year he was elected to the HOF, Mickey Cochrane was chosen the greatest catcher of all time and Bill Dickey the greatest living catcher.



Campanells's career was pretty much over when he had his car accident. He hit .219 and .242 his previous two seasons and the Dodgers had John Roseboro, who was an AS that next season, ready to take over.



Campanella is the perfect comp for a player like Judge, who hasn't had a long career, for what he needs to do to make the HOF without hitting traditional counting statistical milestones.

I don't know man. He would have made it to the bigs on talent, at least 3 seasons earlier.

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[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I don't know man. He would have made it to the bigs on talent, at least 3 seasons earlier.

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After he signed with the Dodgers, they kept him in the minors for 2+ years.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

After he signed with the Dodgers, they kept him in the minors for 2+ years.

And you believe this had 100% to do with his baseball playing ability?

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[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by rats60

Sure you can. First of all Campy wasn't the greatest catcher of all time. The same year he was elected to the HOF, Mickey Cochrane was chosen the greatest catcher of all time and Bill Dickey the greatest living catcher.

Campanells's career was pretty much over when he had his car accident. He hit .219 and .242 his previous two seasons and the Dodgers had John Roseboro, who was an AS that next season, ready to take over.

Campanella is the perfect comp for a player like Judge, who hasn't had a long career, for what he needs to do to make the HOF without hitting traditional counting statistical milestones.

OK. Let's say that Campy is considered one of the best catchers of all time. Top 10. Catcher is probably the hardest and most demanding position in baseball. So Campy doesn't need the counting stats that a OF like Judge needs to be HOF. Also, Campy's career was probably cut short on both ends. So again, the counting stats aren;t that important. He was a 3 time MVP, 11 time all-star of a big team that won it's first ring.
Judge is a great player who has yet to qualify for the HOF - a good OF on the biggest team - Has had 1 all-time great season= 1 MVP 5 time all star and no rings.
They are completely differnet players from completely different eras. When HOF voters thought of Campy they thought of a all-time great catcher who overcame racism and whose career was trigically cut short - my point is they didn't need to be overwhelmed by the numbers. They just needed to be good enough. All Aaron Judge has is one great season and numbers. And if his career ended tomorrow those numbers probably arenlt enough. He ends up being a better yet shorter career version of Roger Maris but 1 less MVP and without the rings.

[tyrith]

If Judge gets to 10 bWAR this season, he's already going to have over 50 WAR7 already - north of guys like Al Kaline and Reggie Jackson. He's not Dale Murphy, who won two MVPs with borderline seasons; if he finishes the year healthy he's probably going to have two of the highest four active seasons in bWAR, with Betts and potentially Gunnar having the other two. His health and age are what are stopping him from being Barry Bonds without the steroids, but they're not gonna stop him from being in the Hall on the BBWAA ballot eventually.

Edit: FYI, full tracker update coming in the next 1-2 days, just ran the stats

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by tyrith

If Judge gets to 10 bWAR this season, he's already going to have over 50 WAR7 already - north of guys like Al Kaline and Reggie Jackson. He's not Dale Murphy, who won two MVPs with borderline seasons; if he finishes the year healthy he's probably going to have two of the highest four active seasons in bWAR, with Betts and potentially Gunnar having the other two. His health and age are what are stopping him from being Barry Bonds without the steroids, but they're not gonna stop him from being in the Hall on the BBWAA ballot eventually.

Edit: FYI, full tracker update coming in the next 1-2 days, just ran the stats

Are we counting Mike Trout as retired already?

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

OK. Let's say that Campy is considered one of the best catchers of all time. Top 10. Catcher is probably the hardest and most demanding position in baseball. So Campy doesn't need the counting stats that a OF like Judge needs to be HOF. Also, Campy's career was probably cut short on both ends. So again, the counting stats aren;t that important. He was a 3 time MVP, 11 time all-star of a big team that won it's first ring.
Judge is a great player who has yet to qualify for the HOF - a good OF on the biggest team - Has had 1 all-time great season= 1 MVP 5 time all star and no rings.
They are completely differnet players from completely different eras. When HOF voters thought of Campy they thought of a all-time great catcher who overcame racism and whose career was trigically cut short - my point is they didn't need to be overwhelmed by the numbers. They just needed to be good enough. All Aaron Judge has is one great season and numbers. And if his career ended tomorrow those numbers probably arenlt enough. He ends up being a better yet shorter career version of Roger Maris but 1 less MVP and without the rings.

It won’t be lost on voters too that Judge has had many postseason opportunities and while his 13 home runs in 44 games, he has hit .211 and had 4 other XBH in those games as well as 66 Ks. In the long line of Yankee greats he has never had an October to remember. Many forgetful ones though.
In 2022, his best single season, he batted .200 in the ALDS and .063 in the ALCS.


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[ironfireman]

Chris Sale just made his 8th All-Star game. 6 time top 5 in CY voting add another 6th place. IF he can finish the season healthy and keep doing what he is doing he might get his first Cy Young and would probably lock up a HOF nod.
The tough part is he is 35. Kershaw is 36, Degrom 35 and Cole 33. The easist and best path for Sale is going to be k's. He's at 2,316 now and averages 1.2+ per IP so even if his arm falls off he'll probably get to 2,500+ and I could see him crawling across 3k in a bullpen in 4-5 years.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Are we counting Mike Trout as retired already?

He actually had two seasons tied for Judge at 10.5 bWAR, I didn't really read it right because there are like 20 seasons tied for that on the bWAR list (which is only all time), but you're right to bring him up.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

And you believe this had 100% to do with his baseball playing ability?

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I think we are in agreement that we don’t believe ability kept him in the minors for those 2 years. I can’t prove it though. Not sure there is a way to do so - I defer to you or anyone else to try. I wasn’t there

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I think we are in agreement that we don’t believe ability kept him in the minors for those 2 years. I can’t prove it though. Not sure there is a way to do so - I defer to you or anyone else to try. I wasn’t there

Campanella was in the minors from 1946 to the early part of 1948.

Jackie Robinson's first season in MLB was 1947.

Campanella was called up in 1948 (April 20)

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Campanella was in the minors from 1946 to the early part of 1948.



Jackie Robinson's first season in MLB was 1947.



Campanella was called up in 1948 (April 20)

Contrary to the prior post, it has been long documented that Branch Rickey had a plan and was slow playing these calls ups to make them more palatable. To act as if we don't know whether or not he would have made it up sooner is probably the most ridiculous post on this entire message board, which is a very low bar.

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[Wolverine]

Always enjoy reading the updates in this thread, especially the hot (or normal) takes on each player.

[Skipscards]

Judge is one of the more unique players in history. At this point I’d say he’s more Roger Maris than Roy Campanella. He’s well on his way to the Hall, but he still needs to do a little more.

[JWBlue]

Where are we with Trea Turner? I think he falls a little short but non-zero chance he gets in.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Where are we with Trea Turner? I think he falls a little short but non-zero chance he gets in.

Lindor is no lock himself and he’s ~160 days younger than Turner with 10.3 more WAR. So it’s hard to see it happening for Trea.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Judge is one of the more unique players in history. At this point I’d say he’s more Roger Maris than Roy Campanella. He’s well on his way to the Hall, but he still needs to do a little more.

I’m not sure he makes it because of the late start but who knows.


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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Lindor is no lock himself and he’s ~160 days younger than Turner with 10.3 more WAR. So it’s hard to see it happening for Trea.

It's actually pretty difficult to get into the HOF as a middle infielder unless you are a standout at one aspect of the game.

Ozzie Smith was a standout defender (13x Gold Glove)
Barry Larkin was a standout hitter (9x Silver Sluggers)
Ryne Sandberg was a standout everything (7x Silver Slugger, 9x Gold Glove)
Roberto Alomar was a .300 hitter with 10 Gold Gloves and 474 SB
Ripken was Ripken
Biggio and Jeter both made it into the 3000-hit club.

And then you look at how little support guys like Jeff Kent and Chase Utley have gotten, and my conclusion is that neither Lindor nor Turner are going to have the numbers to get in.

Lindor has the better shot of the two....but his career BA is already down to .272, and he may need to get to 400 HR/300 SB/2500 Hits to have a serious chance.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Where are we with Trea Turner? I think he falls a little short but non-zero chance he gets in.

It's always going to come down to longevity unless you start your career off like Mike Trout or Mookie Betts. If he can hang on, win a championship or two and accumulate stats, he'll have a chance. Something like 50+ WAR, 2500 hits, 300HR's/300 SBs and maybe get to a .300 average which will probably be difficult.