The Official Stock Market Thread

[patchgenie]

picked up some SRNGU for the potential deal with ginkgo bioworks. was one of the ones i was looking for.

might have to get a share or two of MUDS, so i can say i own some of topps.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Wait. You are short on Apple?

Actually short on Apple? Not bearish, but short on Apple???

Just curious, are you out of your mind? Or you just don't like money?

Ok so I’ll be more clear. I’m probably not using the proper terminology since I’m very much a beginner. If I’m using the incorrect terminology lmk

By “short” I mean in the short term. Like a month or less it seems like it’s going to retest $120. I bought 2 6/18 120 puts. As it moves back down (I hope) I’ll sell those options for a small profit.

Ultimately I have so little money invested in this that if it flops no harm no foul. Lesson learned and get better next time

[awz50]

Pltr made me lots of money today

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Ok so I’ll be more clear. I’m probably not using the proper terminology since I’m very much a beginner. If I’m using the incorrect terminology lmk

By “short” I mean in the short term. Like a month or less it seems like it’s going to retest $120. I bought 2 6/18 120 puts. As it moves back down (I hope) I’ll sell those options for a small profit.

Ultimately I have so little money invested in this that if it flops no harm no foul. Lesson learned and get better next time

OK, I will help with this.

Definitely not using the proper terminology, but that's ok.

What you are doing is holding Apple for the short term. Being short Apple is an entirely different thing.

Being short means you are borrowing shares that you then sell because you believe the stock price will go down. If the price goes down, you can then buy those shares back and then sell them to the entity that you borrowed them from. Very dangerous. Double down on the risk when you are literally talking about one of the premier companies in the entire world.

I also thought I remembered you mentioning you were relatively new to this, so I was very very surprised that you could, meaning found a brokerage house that would allow you to take on that kind of risk without a ton of derivative and alt-strat experience.

By and large, Apple is a "hold" company for most, but I don't see an issue with someone holding it for a short trip up (not that anyone cares). If you are reading it one way and you believe in your method, by all means. I am long, long, super long on Apple so I just happen to see it differently.

[mhcubsfan]

After the killer Feb and March sell-off, I'm finally about 7 or 8% off all-time highs in my investment account that I started about a year and a half ago. Think it may be time for me to sit back and watch. I have to start training myself to being patient and not buying on green days so often, and saving my money. Keeping that backup capital for future buying opportunites.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by mhcubsfan

After the killer Feb and March sell-off, I'm finally about 7 or 8% off all-time highs in my investment account that I started about a year and a half ago. Think it may be time for me to sit back and watch. I have to start training myself to being patient and not buying on green days so often, and saving my money. Keeping that backup capital for future buying opportunites.

Pros don't time the market. They know the stats behind doing that. Buy quality and watch quality do its thing.

[33GHill]

NVDA to 4 digits by next year?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

OK, I will help with this.

Definitely not using the proper terminology, but that's ok.

What you are doing is holding Apple for the short term. Being short Apple is an entirely different thing.

Being short means you are borrowing shares that you then sell because you believe the stock price will go down. If the price goes down, you can then buy those shares back and then sell them to the entity that you borrowed them from. Very dangerous. Double down on the risk when you are literally talking about one of the premier companies in the entire world.

I also thought I remembered you mentioning you were relatively new to this, so I was very very surprised that you could, meaning found a brokerage house that would allow you to take on that kind of risk without a ton of derivative and alt-strat experience.

By and large, Apple is a "hold" company for most, but I don't see an issue with someone holding it for a short trip up (not that anyone cares). If you are reading it one way and you believe in your method, by all means. I am long, long, super long on Apple so I just happen to see it differently.

How long? I feel like I could make decent prognostications both short term and long term as to why Apple is overvalued and the potential risk factors to the company.

I’m also dumb, but I also remember when GE/Exxon were the market darlings for long term holds.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

OK, I will help with this.

Definitely not using the proper terminology, but that's ok.

What you are doing is holding Apple for the short term. Being short Apple is an entirely different thing.

Being short means you are borrowing shares that you then sell because you believe the stock price will go down. If the price goes down, you can then buy those shares back and then sell them to the entity that you borrowed them from. Very dangerous. Double down on the risk when you are literally talking about one of the premier companies in the entire world.

I also thought I remembered you mentioning you were relatively new to this, so I was very very surprised that you could, meaning found a brokerage house that would allow you to take on that kind of risk without a ton of derivative and alt-strat experience.

By and large, Apple is a "hold" company for most, but I don't see an issue with someone holding it for a short trip up (not that anyone cares). If you are reading it one way and you believe in your method, by all means. I am long, long, super long on Apple so I just happen to see it differently.

Ok so I just used the wrong term.

I’m trading aapl downwards in the short term so rather than selling shares on margin to buy them back at a lower price im simply buying puts for a short term gain (hopefully). I bought to open puts at 120 and will sell to close those puts well before the strike date.

Personally I have no interest in Apple as a company and I’m not a big believer in their long term outlook simply because they’re not an innovator anymore. They haven’t done anything worthwhile and basically just keep pumping out the same phone with a new name. iPhone sales have been declining for 5 years now and services haven’t grown at the rate iPhone sales have declined.

[Josh611]

Anytime there’s uncertainty in the market people will run to safety. Apple is just about as safe and defensive as it gets. Kind of have to trust them until they fail you. Apple has much of their customer base by the balls. Humans don’t like change. Sometimes tweaking something minimally is what is needed. I will most likely never own something other than iPhone and know a lot of others will as well. Once you buy that iPhone, you’ll have the other devices before you know.

Is the PE high? Yeah but there’s not much that isn’t. Apple isn’t going anywhere. Good luck converting all those existing customers to someone else’s platform. Good Effin luck.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

How long? I feel like I could make decent prognostications both short term and long term as to why Apple is overvalued and the potential risk factors to the company.

I’m also dumb, but I also remember when GE/Exxon were the market darlings for long term holds.

You aren’t dumb. You make a good point at the surface. However, GE was mismanaged and Exxon didn’t diversify quick enough. Apple has better management than either of those companies.

I believe the forecasts that come out of Cupertino. If maestri is involved, there is some truth built into those numbers.

You can point to p/e as to an overvaluation. That’s fine. There are many metrics indicating it is overvalued. However, it is THE flight to safety equity(focus on equity in this statement) for professional money managers.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

You aren’t dumb. You make a good point at the surface. However, GE was mismanaged and Exxon didn’t diversify quick enough. Apple has better management than either of those companies.

I believe the forecasts that come out of Cupertino. If maestri is involved, there is some truth built into those numbers.

You can point to p/e as to an overvaluation. That’s fine. There are many metrics indicating it is overvalued. However, it is THE flight to safety equity(focus on equity in this statement) for professional money managers.

Full disclosure: I’m more of a financial pessimist than most. My feeble brain is biased and I can see a ton of different catalysts that could send Apple down both short and long term. I also fully trust their management.

It’s crazy to me that Apple represents a little over 4% of the total market cap of the NYSE. In their heyday, Exxon represented 2%. I know way more goes into valuations than just that menial blurb, it’s just tough to wrap my head around.

I could totally see Elon forming his fabled “X” conglomerate and swooping up market share. From my vantage point, Elon and Mr. Gates appear to be moving toward 2030 more so than Tim Cook, and I say that as someone who is personally fully sucked into the Apple ecosystem.

[finfangfan]

Palantir’s “Double Click” demo event is this morning at 11 ET https://www.palantir.com/double-click/ . It will be interesting if yesterday’s surge continues after this event is held.

[Josh611]

Sheesh what a beat by Goldman

[Dbacksbaseball]

I am getting smoked this week. Trying to learn a little from
you guys here’s.

Honest question—-I bought into ZOM at $2. It’s been dropping like a rock the past two weeks and officially crashed below a buck. I’m assuming at this point just hold and wait for an earnings report.

[finfangfan]

Looks like today is AI’s turn to surge. It’s up almost 10% this morning.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I am getting smoked this week. Trying to learn a little from
you guys here’s.

Honest question—-I bought into ZOM at $2. It’s been dropping like a rock the past two weeks and officially crashed below a buck. I’m assuming at this point just hold and wait for an earnings report.

What was your plan when buying in? Long hold, swing?

I stay away from any kind of drug makers. I'm not a scientist. I don't understand that stuff and never will. Also don't like the volatility when you're on the wrong side of the trade. Certainty money to be made with these, just not my cup of tea.

I can't give you much stock specific advice as I know nothing about what their working on other than it is something for dog diarrhea.

Think about how long you planned on holding this position when you bought it. That should help answer the question.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by Josh611

What was your plan when buying in? Long hold, swing?

I stay away from any kind of drug makers. I'm not a scientist. I don't understand that stuff and never will. Also don't like the volatility when you're on the wrong side of the trade. Certainty money to be made with these, just not my cup of tea.

I can't give you much stock specific advice as I know nothing about what their working on other than it is something for dog diarrhea.

Think about how long you planned on holding this position when you bought it. That should help answer the question.

Thanks for the feedback. Give me something to thing about.

Some of the newer medicines they are testing and paths they were trying to go down in terms of supply chain put them on my radar. There stock started to push, and I got in right at the $2 mark. It surged more, then the company fell pretty deafly silent. Yesterday one of their executives dumped about a Million bucks in freight when it got to $1.10. Thats concerning.

Im ok with the long term hold as most the 'expert' research had this as a buy or hold at the $2.50 range--but no real news in about 2 months on their projects is a bit.....concerning.

[mcgoo2]

Woof. I had 8 different holdings and every one of them was down 0-2%. Just solid but unremarkabley red day for growth stocks. Interesting day with the COIN IPO too.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Sheesh what a beat by Goldman

Incredible quarter. Not sure if it applies to GS, but banks are going to state as profit the reserve money that they needed to set aside to ensure they remained solvent during the beginning of the pandemic. This boosted JPMs numbers but the analyst saw through it. That isn't a great catalyst but sending the money to the bottom line is the logical treatment. It will prop up the share price as we move away from earnings and people focus on the number instead of the narrative.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I am getting smoked this week. Trying to learn a little from
you guys here’s.

Honest question—-I bought into ZOM at $2. It’s been dropping like a rock the past two weeks and officially crashed below a buck. I’m assuming at this point just hold and wait for an earnings report.

What made you buy it? Was it price action or was it drug pipeline? If it was price action, you fooled yourself. If it is the drug pipeline, see it through.

We don't dabble in anything in that price range. There are reasons for that.

You said to wait for an earning report. Do they even have anything out on the market? If not, they won't have any substantial earnings. I don't know enough about the company to call it a dog, but re-think the investing in a company sub-$3 because it sky rockets one day. They generally retrace and the investor is stuck holding that bag. There are exceptions (NVAX was one) but it took a global pandemic for it to take off.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

This was suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuper sexy today.

OPtion Strike Premium
AI211217C00065000 65.00 15.60


my breakeven is $88.77 per share by December 17 when figuring an 18% RRR. I took this in my options account. I did not do this in the managed money (too gamble-y for someone else's money).

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Looks like today is AI’s turn to surge. It’s up almost 10% this morning.

Moving in the right direction and plenty of time before expiration.

[elny43]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Incredible quarter. Not sure if it applies to GS, but banks are going to state as profit the reserve money that they needed to set aside to ensure they remained solvent during the beginning of the pandemic. This boosted JPMs numbers but the analyst saw through it. That isn't a great catalyst but sending the money to the bottom line is the logical treatment. It will prop up the share price as we move away from earnings and people focus on the number instead of the narrative.

What you're describing is a reserve release for JPM, primarily in their card segment, due to better than expected credit trends (and improved macro forecasts which define their level of reserves based). Analysts/buyside investors tend to view it as lower quality beat. The bigger issue in the quarter for JPM is that they're running a bit tight to their required capital ratios and had to issue $1.5bn of preferreds in the quarter. That's the market was focused on today and why the stock underperformed.

GS was a monster beat because capital markets are red hot right now. Credit/reserves play less of a role in their numbers.

[Phils747]

USA could be worth a look. It's done pretty well for me the past few weeks (up about 10 percent) and has an ex-dividend coming up on the 22nd. Most of its big holdings went down a bit today and it still rose $0.02/share.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

What made you buy it? Was it price action or was it drug pipeline? If it was price action, you fooled yourself. If it is the drug pipeline, see it through.

We don't dabble in anything in that price range. There are reasons for that.

You said to wait for an earning report. Do they even have anything out on the market? If not, they won't have any substantial earnings. I don't know enough about the company to call it a dog, but re-think the investing in a company sub-$3 because it sky rockets one day. They generally retrace and the investor is stuck holding that bag. There are exceptions (NVAX was one) but it took a global pandemic for it to take off.

Appreciate this input. I am probably truthfully to much of a novice to have as much into stocks as I do. If I showed you my portfolio you would probably vomit lol. I'll have to consider some positions. I got a little bit of a rebound today, so hopefully a green morning and I can push out in the afternoon.