The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

NFLX reports today after the bell. I'll be watching their earnings. No bias today and only trading off strong signals.


SPX: 4850 key (gap @ 4842) / 4900 top (resistance 4875) / 4820 bottom (break below 4815 support) + ATR's


Watching:

SPY: Game Plan

SPY bounce @ 482.7

DWAC: for a bounce (check the 1 hour chart). They ran it up 88% yesterday, I'll be watching if they can keep that momentum going. (This is high risk)

[ajlaxmn]

No data drop today.

SPY watching 485.22 for reject and 482.74 for bounce. Pulled these off daily chart.

Top 4900, Key level 4850 (Gap at 4839.81), Bottom 4820 + ATR's.

[ajlaxmn]

Think I would like to see break above and retest of 4860 ATR for Call entry or break below 4850 and retest for Put entry. Still early in the day, but wondering if we range in between 4850 and 4860 for a little.

EDIT: Not confident in the volume of that first SPY candle. 2.2M?

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Think I would like to see break above and retest of 4860 ATR for Call entry or break below 4850 and retest for Put entry. Still early in the day, but wondering if we range in between 4850 and 4860 for a little.

Exactly what I'm watching. Looks like they want down, if they do I'll be looking for gap fill.

Just waiting to see which way they want to take it + volume.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Exactly what I'm watching. Looks like they want down, if they do I'll be looking for gap fill.

Just waiting to see which way they want to take it + volume.

if they slow grind up to 4860 ATR on low buying volume, you need to see anything specific to NOT test 4860 Puts?

[ajlaxmn]

significant Call volume for 4870-4800, Blaze I can't remember intra day do you look to volume or still O/I when to aid in determining direction MM's might take?

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

if they slow grind up to 4860 ATR on low buying volume, you need to see anything specific to NOT test 4860 Puts?

If I see strong volume I won't test puts. Right now SPY looks bullish but I'm being patient. Only trade I will take is when we break the range (I don't care which way).

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

significant Call volume for 4870-4800, Blaze I can't remember intra day do you look to volume or still O/I when to aid in determining direction MM's might take?

I do. That's how you can get a read on flow and see which direction they're trying to push it. I look at "time and sales" and look for big blocks of 100/200+ as that's not a retail trader purchase.


Example:




I check strikes OTM to see what is being bought/sold. In this example there's only 1 purchase over 200 so I ignore it, but that's how I gage flow. When watching flow always look at OTM contracts (10 - 15 points) to get an idea of where they want to send the price.

[Blazed]

Watching for a break here and watching volume. Key here is being patient and not try and guess what direction it goes, right now there's no real direction. Flow is sideways which is why the 10 point range is holding.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Exactly what I'm watching. Looks like they want down, if they do I'll be looking for gap fill.

Just waiting to see which way they want to take it + volume.

Originally Posted by Blazed

Watching for a break here and watching volume. Key here is being patient and not try and guess what direction it goes, right now there's no real direction. Flow is sideways which is why the 10 point range is holding.

Looks like they want down✅
Watching for a break here and watching volume.✅

Entered @ retest




Used SPY's VWAP as my "safety net"




Still in puts. Looking for gap fill @ 4842) 4840 ATR. I waited for my set up and entered. I entered early and the trade went red. If we broke above SPY's VWAP I would have cut my position.

Volume was confirming downside so I'm holding. No reason to cut anything with volume showing sellers are strong. Lets see what happens.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Looks like they want down✅
Watching for a break here and watching volume.✅

Entered @ retest




Used SPY's VWAP as my "safety net"




Still in puts. Looking for gap fill @ 4842) 4840 ATR. I waited for my set up and entered. I entered early and the trade went red. If we broke above SPY's VWAP I would have cut my position.

Volume was confirming downside so I'm holding. No reason to cut anything with volume showing sellers are strong. Lets see what happens.

I also entered the same position, held through SPY breaking above, used VWAP as well, volume showed more downside, based on how SPX is moving I need to cut and get back to family. $190 profit, time not worth the money, experience totally was worth it.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Looks like they want down✅
Watching for a break here and watching volume.✅

Entered @ retest




Used SPY's VWAP as my "safety net"




Still in puts. Looking for gap fill @ 4842) 4840 ATR. I waited for my set up and entered. I entered early and the trade went red. If we broke above SPY's VWAP I would have cut my position.

Volume was confirming downside so I'm holding. No reason to cut anything with volume showing sellers are strong. Lets see what happens.

Volume didn't work out today. They pushed it up off low buying volume and left the gap open.

Took a loos on this trade. Loss for the day - $2890. All good though, I'll get it back tomorrow.

If they reject here @ 4856 and go back and fill the gap.... lol

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I also entered the same position, held through SPY breaking above, used VWAP as well, volume showed more downside, based on how SPX is moving I need to cut and get back to family. $190 profit, time not worth the money, experience totally was worth it.

Nice, did better than me today!

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Nice, did better than me today!

I will admit, VERY FRUSTRATING DAY, market would just not push down, volume said it should have, but it just moved sideways the whole time. Still, I would take the same trade everyday, waited until break below, waited for reject, volume showed downside, wouldn’t use this day as an example of how the plan doesn’t work. Like you said, back at it tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Volume didn't work out today. They pushed it up off low buying volume and left the gap open.

Took a loos on this trade. Loss for the day - $2890. All good though, I'll get it back tomorrow.

If they reject here @ 4856 and go back and fill the gap.... lol

Trade recap:

Caught calls off the break above 4850 + retest. Exited @ 4858.7 (close enough) to 4860.

Ending the green day, made back my loss earlier - gains for the day $285. Not much but I'll take it.




Back at it tomorrow.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I will admit, VERY FRUSTRATING DAY, market would just not push down, volume said it should have, but it just moved sideways the whole time. Still, I would take the same trade everyday, waited until break below, waited for reject, volume showed downside, wouldn’t use this day as an example of how the plan doesn’t work. Like you said, back at it tomorrow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes it was, and I would take the same trade every single day with the same signal confirmations. My loss was due to not trimming (I was up nice on the trade before it reversed) and taking a little risk off. But I followed my plan and cut where I had planned.

It was an example of an A+ trade with confirmation that just didn't work out.

The current push up, volume signaled and it worked out well - just hit 4860

[Blazed]

PMI today after open so keep that in mind. NFLX earnings beat pushed market up.


SPX: 4875 key level / 4930 top / 4850 bottom - gaps @ 4842 & 4866


Watching:

SPY bounce @ 485.2


Worth noting:

China is lowering their reserve requirement rates for banks in an effort to generate more activity and stimulus throughout the country, freeing up about $139B of liquidity.

Yesterday they issued $287B into their stock market and warned Chinese firms against shorting.

No bias, ride the market up as long as they want to push it up.

Pretty soon I will be looking to short the market with some longer dated puts. Have to use common sense at some point and realize the market is out of touch with reality. I'll be watching for a reversal signal on the weekly/monthly time frames.

[ajlaxmn]

NFLX earning pushed stock up, along with SPY. Watching mainly key levels and ATR's today.

Bottom 4850 (gap at 4842), Key 4900, Top 4920.

[Blazed]

Damn, I knew I should have taken puts @ 4890 but I didn't.

All time highs is a tricky area so being patient and waiting for solid areas. 4900 reject or last close bounce are all I'm watching right now.

[ajlaxmn]

I was in 4890 P, held too long, trade went red, trying to get 4874 ATR for exit, knew I should have exited at 4880 for ten point move and take the $500 profit. Down $200. Reversal SPY candle and any selling right now is getting bought up.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I was in 4890 P, held too long, trade went red, trying to get 4874 ATR for exit, knew I should have exited at 4880 for ten point move and take the $500 profit. Down $200. Reversal SPY candle and any selling right now is getting bought up.

I'm in calls too. Watching this area close as we keep struggling. Need to break 488 on SPY.

Visual for anyone watching - took calls off this volume. 2.5 mil shares should send us to 4900, they want it.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I'm in calls too. Watching this area close as we keep struggling. Need to break 488 on SPY.

Visual for anyone watching - took calls off this volume. 2.5 mil shares should send us to 4900, they want it.

Jumped in these as well at 4890 retest, out now, not flying too close to the sun here with one contract. $500 profit on the trade. $370 profit on the day when factoring in my $200 loss. Good day.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I'm in calls too. Watching this area close as we keep struggling. Need to break 488 on SPY.

Visual for anyone watching - took calls off this volume. 2.5 mil shares should send us to 4900, they want it.

2.5 mil shares should send us to 4900✅- bang. Got it.

All out of calls here. Gains for this trade $4.6k. Great trade. Volume told the story.




----------------------------

Just as a reminder, good trading is boring. It's a game of patience and waiting for levels to hit or signals to show.

If you're interested in learning, start at page one of this thread and as always DM's are responded to.

Back at it tomorrow.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

PMI today after open so keep that in mind. NFLX earnings beat pushed market up.


SPX: 4875 key level / 4930 top / 4850 bottom - gaps @ 4842 & 4866


Watching:

SPY bounce @ 485.2


Worth noting:




No bias, ride the market up as long as they want to push it up.

Pretty soon I will be looking to short the market with some longer dated puts. Have to use common sense at some point and realize the market is out of touch with reality. I'll be watching for a reversal signal on the weekly/monthly time frames.

Longer dated puts still on watch.

4866 gap filled. Took some puts @ break below 4880 for power hour to get the gap off strong selling volume.

Tomorrow should be fun. TSLA earnings on watch.

[ajlaxmn]

Little late to the screen today, so because of all the data that dropped at 8:30 I am definitely going to see how market reacts. Data at 10, new home sales.

Bottom 4845 (Gap 4842), Key 4900, Top 4930 + ATR's.

[Blazed]

GDP and jobless claims dropped this morning. No bias today, take what the market gives.

SPX: 4900 key level / 4920 top / 4850 bottom - gap @ 4842. If we break below the gap I have 4835 as next support


Watching:


TSLA: I will be watching for a 164 area bounce (won't happen today) but mark that level on your charts. Its not going to test 164 in a straight line of course, it will likely bounce around with a continued move to the downside (check your charts).


As always, don't force or rush a trade, let the trades come to you.