Official Tom Brady RC Price Tracker

[pcptrade]

I mentioned this last year when someone was pumping them here. The majority of champ tickets have to exchange hands from the people who got in for cheap to the rich collectors/investors, which is what we are seeing now. The process is still not complete. We will not see another bull run in prices until that process is complete and the stock market turns around.

[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by Brian48

Great. More good news. This card might be #'d only to 100, but there seems to be a boatload of them up for sale the last two years. $$ certainly brings them out of the woodwork.

Mine might turn out to be long term hold at this point.

Agreed but entry level is relative. I only have 35k into mine so it’s no biggie to ride it out. I haven’t owned the card more than 3 years. Until one stops being sold every month at a auction house the price will stay stagnant. You would think by now it would be in more diamond hands but the turnover isn’t complete yet. My goal when I invested in the card was hold 10+ years unless the right price was realized. I have tons of runway not worried one bit.

[k13]

Originally Posted by 6GOAT789

Yea, Jordan stopped playing a long time ago and everyone forgot about him

That's why his price always fades so fast after manipulation. The only thing left for him to accomplish in the hobby is dying to get some interest.

All Jordan rookies will keep going down till next pump or death.

[brettxman]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Two Brady Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/10's up for sale at Heritage. One ends this weekend and is currently at 600K with BP. The other one will be in their October auction. Over or under 1 million? Place your bets! I have a feeling it might end slightly under a million, which is ~40% drop from the peak (excluding the 2.1 million private sale after his retirement news).

BAS 8.5 095/100
This one ended on 2021/04/24 , Goldin Auction , $1.68 Million
Now sell again at Heritage

I have recorded the transaction prices of all TB ChampTix in several large auctions since 2021.

I have a BGS 8.5 009/100

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by brettxman

BAS 8.5 095/100
This one ended on 2021/04/24 , Goldin Auction , $1.68 Million
Now sell again at Heritage

I have recorded the transaction prices of all TB ChampTix in several large auctions since 2021.

I have a BGS 8.5 009/100

I have seen some high end cards being sold for 200-350K loss this year by the owners who acquired those cards only last year. Perhaps they are looking to offset profits from the sales of other cards.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I have seen some high end cards being sold for 200-350K loss this year by the owners who acquired those cards only last year. Perhaps they are looking to offset profits from the sales of other cards.

Cards that are up for auction every month on multiple platforms cannot continue to increase in price. I think we have seen the peak on Champ Ticket for quite awhile. We have to remember, the card went from a few hundred thousand to around 2 Million in less than a year, an amazing gain for a card that was 5K in 2016.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Two Brady Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/10's up for sale at Heritage. One ends this weekend and is currently at 600K with BP. The other one will be in their October auction. Over or under 1 million? Place your bets! I have a feeling it might end slightly under a million, which is ~40% drop from the peak (excluding the 2.1 million private sale after his retirement news).

One on Leland's as well

[6GOAT789]

Barring disaster, Bucs should win their division.

So it’ll be interesting to see where prices are at in a few months.

Probably some big sales right before the playoffs start. Then from there it’ll be interesting to see what happens once they lose, or how high things get if they win it all

[Hilton]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

One on Leland's as well

Brady championship ticket auto rookie BGS 8.5/10 finished at $885k in heritage today.
Wow well below the $1.5 million to $1.6 million range it used to sell for.

[brettxman]

Originally Posted by Hilton

Brady championship ticket auto rookie BGS 8.5/10 finished at $885k in heritage today.
Wow well below the $1.5 million to $1.6 million range it used to sell for.

BAS graded maybe influence some values , I think 20% BGS discount

[Hellcat]

I’ve been telling you guys all along the PSA slabbed Championship Tickets is where the money is at there’s like 10 or so in slabs with a few accounted for re-grades. BGS is getting a abused with the Star Jordan discrepancy to PSA grade for grade and it looks to be affecting the Brady Champ Ticket as well. You have to remember a lot of BGS slabbed Championship Tickets were PSA rejects for min-size so send it on over to BGS! I stuck with the industry leader for my choice of grader. Anyway the whole market is done as a whole.

[brettxman]

Some BAS really regrade from early BGS slab

[brettxman]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

I’ve been telling you guys all along the PSA slabbed Championship Tickets is where the money is at there’s like 10 or so in slabs with a few accounted for re-grades. BGS is getting a abused with the Star Jordan discrepancy to PSA grade for grade and it looks to be affecting the Brady Champ Ticket as well. You have to remember a lot of BGS slabbed Championship Tickets were PSA rejects for min-size so send it on over to BGS! I stuck with the industry leader for my choice of grader. Anyway the whole market is done as a whole.

Your opinion may only suit to compare with BAS graded
BGS identification was stronger than PSA before 2017 (only referring to post-1990 cards), so Brady's Contenders mostly sent BGS in the early days.
Since Brady got the fifth championship , it has changed. It is also since then that Beckett has stipulated that this card must be sent AU graded before identifying the items of the card, but this method also reduces the strictness of item requirements, BAS < early BGS

[pcptrade]

A PSA 8 with Auto 9 sold for $1.3 million in March when BGS 8.5/10 were selling for 1.5 million in April. Rich collectors are not after low grade PSA copies (grade 7 and below) and the ones with an auto grade of 9's despite the overall low pop. I sold my PSA 5/9 for 780K after the retirement news. I highly doubt it will fetch more than 450K if it was auctioned off now. Jordan Star PSA 7 and 8 are already down 50% since the pump few months ago. I said last year that we are due for a correction and will be entering a plateau phase in the market the next five years. Nothing is immune, whether it is PSA or BGS or SGC. Even the record private sales will not stop more blood bath next few months. A Honus Wagner SGC 2 sold for a record $7.25 million in private sale last month. I highly doubt that PSA 1.5 currently at Goldin will fetch more than $5 million even though they extended the auction by one week.

Disclosure: I own a Brady Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/10. My post from last year (May 2021)-

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I strongly believe we have not seen the bottom yet. The prices could drop more in 2022 and stabilize after that. I do not expect the prices to go up much in the next 5 years even if Lebron or Brady win another ring, which is why I said we might be entering a plateau phase on high end cards in the next 5 years. Extremely rare cards such as Mantle PSA 10's, Ruth Goudey 53 PSA 9, sought after Superfractors, 1/1's that rarely come up for sale may still set new records in the next five years but not Champ Ticket/100 and LBJ Exquisite RPA 99 even though a RPA/23 BGS 9 set a 5.2 million record for the most expensive card ever sold. I see CT and LBJ Exquisite RPA 99 BGS 8.5 settling around 1 million for the next 5 years. I will be glad If I am wrong and if we see another bull run because it will be good for my portfolio and I have some Brady multiples and Mahomes low to mid end that I am looking to unload. I am still bullish long term (>5 years) despite the current drop in prices, which is a healthy correction (not crash) imo. If you purchased before 2020, you are fine because the prices are still up YOY.

[brettxman]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

A PSA 8 with Auto 9 sold for $1.3 million in March when BGS 8.5/10 were selling for 1.5 million in April. Rich collectors are not after low grade PSA copies (grade 7 and below) and the ones with an auto grade of 9's despite the overall low pop. I sold my PSA 5/9 for 780K after the retirement news. I highly doubt it will fetch more than 450K if it was auctioned off now. Jordan Star PSA 7 and 8 are already down 50% since the pump few months ago. I said last year that we are due for a correction and will be entering a plateau phase in the market the next five years. Nothing is immune, whether it is PSA or BGS or SGC. Even the record private sales will not stop more blood bath next few months. A Honus Wagner SGC 2 sold for a record $7.25 million in private sale last month. I highly doubt that PSA 1.5 currently at Goldin will fetch more than $5 million even though they extended the auction by one week.

Disclosure: I own a Brady Champ Ticket BGS 8.5/10. My post from last year (May 2021)-

I have been interested in your opinion and included in the reference for a while . It has constructive insights, great !!!

[Hilton]

Originally Posted by brettxman

BAS graded maybe influence some values , I think 20% BGS discount

The BAS graded bgs 8.5 Brady championship ticket that sold for $885k yesterday in heritage is the exact same card that was sold for $1.68 million in goldin auctions in April 2021. That was around the all time high auction price for a Brady BGS or BAS 8.5 so the BAS didn’t sell for a discount in goldin auctions in April 2021.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Hilton

The BAS graded bgs 8.5 Brady championship ticket that sold for $885k yesterday in heritage is the exact same card that was sold for $1.68 million in goldin auctions in April 2021. That was around the all time high auction price for a Brady BGS or BAS 8.5 so the BAS didn’t sell for a discount in goldin auctions in April 2021.

Correct.

I will add that nobody gives a damn about BAS vs BGS. It’s the same slab. This particular copy was over graded IMO, and was treated as such. Poor eye appeal in a bad market = card gets hammered.

[Hellcat]

We need to go a year before another Championship Ticket comes up for auction the market is just so saturated with one or two being listed every month. Once that happens we will see a rise again.

[notfast]

Serious question - what is the buyer pool for $1m+ modern cards?

Is it 20 people? 100? 1000?

[Brian48]

Originally Posted by notfast

Serious question - what is the buyer pool for $1m+ modern cards?

Is it 20 people? 100? 1000?

All I need is one

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

We need to go a year before another Championship Ticket comes up for auction the market is just so saturated with one or two being listed every month. Once that happens we will see a rise again.

With the economy and falling prices you will probably see them pop every couple of months until they are in the hands of long term holders. I think pcp’s five year estimate is pretty spot on.

[DaveedTO]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

One on Leland's as well

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by notfast

Serious question - what is the buyer pool for $1m+ modern cards?

Is it 20 people? 100? 1000?

According to this list from Beckett, there have been 31 $1M+ in 2022.

https://www.beckett.com/news/million...sales-of-2022/

So think definitely more than 20 potential buyers, unless someone within the buyer pool is consistently buying multiple $1M+ cards. Feels unlikely since average sales price within this group is much higher than $1M.

With sports cards increasingly being viewed as an alternative investment class, buyer pool for $1M+ has expanded from individual collectors to investment funds as well. (Annoying for true collectors who may be priced out of auctions, but good for sellers longer term.) As an aside, I think this may be why you see exponential value increases for an individual card as price rise: funds likely won't bother with "lower" value cards since not worth their time. But once a value reaches a certain threshold, a whole universe of buyers is opened. This is the same dynamic observed in the public equity markets.

All that said, thinking somewhere between 100 and 1,000 potential buyers (have both willingness AND ability to pay) of a $1m+ card at any given point in time. A subset of which would actively bid on any individual card. Guessing the individual buyers included within this group would rotate a bit as folks may sit out after winning a major auction (or vice versa) or have other external events (buy a house, sell their company, retire, etc).

[KhalDrogo]

James Park has made at least five $1M+ purchases in the last 12 months.

The buyer pool at $1M+ is pretty shallow for modern. I think the Wagner/Mantle market is much deeper. But just a guess.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

James Park has made at least five $1M+ purchases in the last 12 months.

The buyer pool at $1M+ is pretty shallow for modern. I think the Wagner/Mantle market is much deeper. But just a guess.

This is how I feel as well. I’m sure many of those modern NBA logoman cards are going to 1-2 people as well.