Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Offence is down across the board. The Jays and Vladdy specifically aren’t immune from it. This is why I just want Vlad to be super patient and get on base 2-4 times a game.

I'd gladly take another .300/.400/.600 year!

[rngrdanny22]

Pivetta doesn't want anything to do with him.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Soto is easily the better "hitter" at the moment. Better eye at the plate, better contact, etc.

This is like saying prime Votto was a better hitter than prime Miggy or Pujols.

Better contact? Not sure about that.

Better eye at the plate, if based on walk rate, isn’t necessarily a huge plus when discussing elite hitters. (I know, sacrilege to the WAR/Trout/wRC crowd.)

Now, if Soto were putting up Gwynn/Boggs averages, that would be one thing. But between his .300 career average and rather pedestrian 51 extra-base hits in ‘21 (although the power was much better in ‘19 and ‘20), it seems difficult to argue that Soto is a better hitter. (However, not losing your mind while getting pitched around in an otherwise dreadful lineup? Yeah, that’s quite a skill unto itself.)

I say this with full understanding that they’re both only 23, and the belief that any differences between the two, when looking at the sum of the parts, are negligible.


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[ThoseBackPages]

Votto is a loser, do not compare Soto to him, please

[BNB]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Votto is a loser, do not compare Soto to him, please

I hope one day I can see you call Votto a loser to his face.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

This is like saying prime Votto was a better hitter than prime Miggy or Pujols.

Better contact? Not sure about that.

Better eye at the plate, if based on walk rate, isn’t necessarily a huge plus when discussing elite hitters. (I know, sacrilege to the WAR/Trout/wRC crowd.)

Now, if Soto were putting up Gwynn/Boggs averages, that would be one thing. But between his .300 career average and rather pedestrian 51 extra-base hits in ‘21 (although the power was much better in ‘19 and ‘20), it seems difficult to argue that Soto is a better hitter. (However, not losing your mind while getting pitched around in an otherwise dreadful lineup? Yeah, that’s quite a skill unto itself.)

I say this with full understanding that they’re both only 23, and the belief that any differences between the two, when looking at the sum of the parts, are negligible.


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How do you figure? Getting on base is the most important skill a hitter can have regarding producing runs and winning games.

Career OBP: Soto, .432; Guerrero .368

That is a huge difference between the 2.

[Neo]

The Vladdy '22 Heritage Action ('image') is such a dope card. Give me all of the cards with the CN Tower in the background. Hit one last night. Much success.
- Bo Bichette 2020 Stadium Club enthusiast

[Mymoneypls]

Originally Posted by Neo

The Vladdy '22 Heritage Action ('image') is such a dope card. Give me all of the cards with the CN Tower in the background. Hit one last night. Much success.
- Bo Bichette 2020 Stadium Club enthusiast

Love those images with the CN tower in the background.
The Bo Bichette 2020 Stadium Club chrome is one of the coolest looking cards.


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[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

How do you figure? Getting on base is the most important skill a hitter can have regarding producing runs and winning games.

Career OBP: Soto, .432; Guerrero .368

That is a huge difference between the 2.

Creating motion on the base paths is the most important skill. Walks don’t score base runners (unless the bases were already loaded) and they don’t get you in scoring position.

There are batted-ball outs that are more valuable than walks, and there’s a reason why opposing teams would rather walk a guy than let him hit.

Don’t get me wrong: taking walks is very important. But I want my best hitter to be a little more aggressive. It’s similar to a star basketball player who you want taking the tough shots versus deferring to someone else.


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[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Creating motion on the base paths is the most important skill. Walks don’t score base runners (unless the bases were already loaded) and they don’t get you in scoring position.

There are batted-ball outs that are more valuable than walks, and there’s a reason why opposing teams would rather walk a guy than let him hit.

Don’t get me wrong: taking walks is very important. But I want my best hitter to be a little more aggressive. It’s similar to a star basketball player who you want taking the tough shots versus deferring to someone else.


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Based on what? There isn't a lot of motion on the base paths on a 3-run homer.

Putting it another way, Vladimir Guerrero is more likely to make an out that Soto, which translates to more runs, which translates to more wins, which translates to being more valuable.

Basketball analogy doesn't work because even walking a team's best hitter increases the chances of scoring.

Guerrero has one monster season to date and is awesome, but he hasn't had the career to date that Soto has.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Based on what? There isn't a lot of motion on the base paths on a 3-run homer.

Putting it another way, Vladimir Guerrero is more likely to make an out that Soto, which translates to more runs, which translates to more wins, which translates to being more valuable.

Basketball analogy doesn't work because even walking a team's best hitter increases the chances of scoring.

Guerrero has one monster season to date and is awesome, but he hasn't had the career to date that Soto has.

There isn’t a whole lot of motion on a 3-run homer… Except for the two base runners moving from their bases to home plate, and then the batter rounding the bases. Other than a grand slam, that is the most motion there can be on a given pitch/play.

The basketball analogy works. Just chew on it a little bit. (For starters, it can be argued that passing to a spot shooter, rather than driving to the hole, increases the chances of scoring more points.)

The career to date isn’t in question—Soto has the advantage. But that’s different from arguing about their current capabilities.


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[BAHoopla]

Another way to look at it. I find Soto more valuable if he was batting in front of Guerrero or JRam cause getting on base there via walk adds more value, but while he is on Wash and is the teams best hitter he seems to take too many strikes with risp and is willing to walk and defer to the next inferior hitter. While this leads to nice advanced stats such as OPS and war it also is less likely wash will win the game. So for me it is situational. If you are the best hitter you have to do what gives your team best chance to win and a walk does not always do that sometimes you have to take the risk and put the ball in play. This is of course is just my opinion.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by BNB

I hope one day I can see you call Votto a loser to his face.

and what would he do?

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

and what would he do?

Probably hurt your feelings with his words. I will say that I got your sarcasm from your initial post.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

There isn’t a whole lot of motion on a 3-run homer… Except for the two base runners moving from their bases to home plate, and then the batter rounding the bases. Other than a grand slam, that is the most motion there can be on a given pitch/play.

The basketball analogy works. Just chew on it a little bit. (For starters, it can be argued that passing to a spot shooter, rather than driving to the hole, increases the chances of scoring more points.)

The career to date isn’t in question—Soto has the advantage. But that’s different from arguing about their current capabilities.


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No need to bend over backwards to make an ill-fitted basketball analogy work when we have baseball stats.

[pete2345]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

and what would he do?

Same thing I would do.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by pete2345

Same thing I would do.

and what would that be?

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

and what would that be?

Stop indulging the troll...

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BAHoopla

Another way to look at it. I find Soto more valuable if he was batting in front of Guerrero or JRam cause getting on base there via walk adds more value, but while he is on Wash and is the teams best hitter he seems to take too many strikes with risp and is willing to walk and defer to the next inferior hitter. While this leads to nice advanced stats such as OPS and war it also is less likely wash will win the game. So for me it is situational. If you are the best hitter you have to do what gives your team best chance to win and a walk does not always do that sometimes you have to take the risk and put the ball in play. This is of course is just my opinion.

Fortunately there are methods to quantitate such things and we aren't relegated to relying on people's opinions. The whole point of WAR is to measure and weight the values of such things as walks in the context of wins.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BAHoopla

Another way to look at it. I find Soto more valuable if he was batting in front of Guerrero or JRam cause getting on base there via walk adds more value, but while he is on Wash and is the teams best hitter he seems to take too many strikes with risp and is willing to walk and defer to the next inferior hitter. While this leads to nice advanced stats such as OPS and war it also is less likely wash will win the game. So for me it is situational. If you are the best hitter you have to do what gives your team best chance to win and a walk does not always do that sometimes you have to take the risk and put the ball in play. This is of course is just my opinion.

Here are the Win Probability Added leaders from last year.

WPA captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning

1. Ohtani • LAA 5.1
2. Harper • PHI 4.7
3. Judge • NYY 4.4
4. Soto • WSN 4.3
5. Tatís • SDP 3.9
6. Polanco • MIN 3.8
7. Ramirez • CLE 3.8
8. Guerrero • TOR 3.6
9. Freeman • ATL 3.5
10. Marte • 2TM 3.5

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

There isn’t a whole lot of motion on a 3-run homer… Except for the two base runners moving from their bases to home plate, and then the batter rounding the bases. Other than a grand slam, that is the most motion there can be on a given pitch/play.

The basketball analogy works. Just chew on it a little bit. (For starters, it can be argued that passing to a spot shooter, rather than driving to the hole, increases the chances of scoring more points.)

The career to date isn’t in question—Soto has the advantage. But that’s different from arguing about their current capabilities.


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I like the ever changing definition of "motion on the base".

[BAHoopla]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Fortunately there are methods to quantitate such things and we aren't relegated to relying on people's opinions. The whole point of WAR is to measure and weight the values of such things as walks in the context of wins.

I get you as I am a stat guy as well. I was speaking to the eye ball test. Bottom of the ninth, 2 out and runners on 1st and 2nd and Soto is up and you are the manager or a fan would you be cheering for Soto to get a walk and say hey he mathematically increased our chances of winning and now Josh Bell is up or would you rather he swing?

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

No need to bend over backwards to make an ill-fitted basketball analogy work when we have baseball stats.

Perhaps the analogy involves a little too much imagination for some. It’s not the neatly packaged formula that absolves one of thinking the way WAR does.


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[Chris P]

Newest Vlad Pickup

[BAHoopla]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Newest Vlad Pickup

That’s a sweet looking card