First Buzz: 2018 Topps Heritage baseball cards

[puck419]

In at $59 a box.

Wooooo

[mikecamp99]

So........ is it worth locking in right now at $875, or wait to see if it comes down a bit? I really want at least 1 case but wasn't expecting it to be as high as it is already. Yes I know we can look elsewhere, but I'm just talking about Blowout specifically.

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by mikecamp99

So........ is it worth locking in right now at $875, or wait to see if it comes down a bit? I really want at least 1 case but wasn't expecting it to be as high as it is already. Yes I know we can look elsewhere, but I'm just talking about Blowout specifically.

73 a box... Like i said at release it will be 100 and probably to 120 with in a week

Heritage has turned into the most popular product of the year

Then you add the 69 design...

$73 is a steal compared to what it will be... But its 6 months out.. hard to lock in so early i get that

[beauspencer]

Locked in two cases at 839 each. Missed 765 per case pricing by a day.

[chezball]

Originally Posted by mikecamp99

So........ is it worth locking in right now at $875, or wait to see if it comes down a bit? I really want at least 1 case but wasn't expecting it to be as high as it is already. Yes I know we can look elsewhere, but I'm just talking about Blowout specifically.

If I can't lock-in under $800, I'm not touching it. I sent my guy an e-mail so we'll see.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

There is no discussion. You've been posting the same thing for two years. Please tell us once again that you won't be buying any boxes when _________ comes out.

Except I will be.....I like the 2018 Flagship design and will buy a few boxes, and I'll do Heritage if I can get it from my LCS at around $65/box like usual.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

I have never locked in this early but I think it's going to be on fire!

[kyle121592]

Looks like BO is reloading again, none for sale currently.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Originally Posted by kyle121592

Looks like BO is reloading again, none for sale currently.

I'm sure the new price will go up.

[Dougout]

Originally Posted by TarjetasBéisbol

I'm sure the new price will go up.

Yep. $960 a case now:

http://www.blowoutcards.com/index.ph...ducts_id=13756

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Originally Posted by Dougout

Yep. $960 a case now:

http://www.blowoutcards.com/index.ph...ducts_id=13756

Now that is a big jump! Will we see $1500 by release date?

[Neo]

I regret waiting already.

Dang.

[ThoseBackPages]

im already priced out! lol

#ThanksTopps

#PrayForRetail

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

73 a box... Like i said at release it will be 100 and probably to 120 with in a week

Heritage has turned into the most popular product of the year

Then you add the 69 design...

$73 is a steal compared to what it will be... But its 6 months out.. hard to lock in so early i get that

IMO, how this ever becomes a $100/box product is mind-boggling...I would easily lose money breaking the product at that price point
even at $75/box it scares me and I would have to pass on it
It's not like it's limited or has huge monstrous high end hits...even the throwbacks, which have softened, are 1:20+ case pulls

now if you are speculating that sealed wax will increase, then I guess $75 makes sense if planning on flipping it sealed a couple months later if you think it'll be $100-$120
but right now, all this speculation is based off last year which we've never seen before for heritage, not even half of what it did sealed
Last year was the first time we've ever seen something like this
so much hype these days---which also just drives the sealed prices up further
I get it, everyone wants in on what's next, and it's not just in cards

last year's went up but the big jump up was 2 months after release all due to Judge and not many other releases out

but if we also remember, breaking was not great early on, looking back at last year's thread for 3 weeks, it was all we talked about
more new breakers than ever and the market was the lowest we had seen on actions, color swaps and throwbacks
people were doing BIN $10-15 color swap on trout and bryant
and blowing out actions and full master sets at $300 when you could sell the 1-500 for $300 and the inserts for $125-$150
and so many of us were buying singles or holding to sell after the storm, and it paid off; those color swaps held strong at $50-$80 and the actions came back, especially Benny early, then Judge of course...but it was a perfect storm and many who are not familiar with Heritage complained because they opened a case and got 1 auto at times, or 2-3, and they dumped everything cheap and moved on

that is what some don't seem to realize, that this is not a 'hit' product
If I were new or newer to Heritage, I'd be studying all I could and talking to those who break it year after year to learn what I could, that way I know what to look for, know that the market is, and know what to expect realistically
or we will see a repeat of last year were folks open a case and get 1 auto & 11 plain jerseys and complain about how bad they did and dump it all without knowing what is what
It's not easy getting into something new without experience and customers and good pricing, but everyone has to start somewhere
Although I suspect next year, we will see many who lost money busting Heritage thinking it was some kind of new gold rush only to be disappointed

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by chezball

If I can't lock-in under $800, I'm not touching it. I sent my guy an e-mail so we'll see.

amen, and even $800 sounds high, but direct cost is up this year

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by phil

Nah, this is mostly just a Heritage thing + there's still a ton of 2017 products yet to hit, many of which will be overproduced and stagnant which will end up dampening any enthusiasm 2018 presells might have going.

overproduced; you think so? which ones?
Topps had to do a lot of cutting and allocating on the majority of remaining 2017 releases

I agree about 2018. This always happens, one year, breakout RC, most products go up, next year, more orders roll in, production up, market comes way down, people lose $ and leave
how many times have we seen this happen? just in the past decade?


side note...often when products go up, it's due to being limited or speculation because anyone like me breaking at those higher prices is losing their shirt

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by msterling21

What's the auto/relic ratio per case? The reason I would avoid a case is because my understanding is that there's more relics than autos in each case.

most cases are 2 autos and 10 plain jerseys
but some cases are 3 autos, some are 1

I think there were a few that reported a case with 4 autos last year but that also led to a few with 0, so that would just be anomalies

next year...who knows...if orders keep increasing, could be 1 auto per case, haha
I doubt it, but never know

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

[B]
If I were new or newer to Heritage, I'd be studying all I could and talking to those who break it year after year to learn what I could, that way I know what to look for, know that the market is, and know what to expect realistically
or we will see a repeat of last year were folks open a case and get 1 auto & 11 plain jerseys and complain about how bad they did and dump it all without knowing what is what

This, 100%....just like with anything else, you don't become an expert overnight

[phil]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

but right now, all this speculation is based off last year which we've never seen before for heritage, not even half of what it did sealed

After release 2016 did gradually creep up to $100+/box mid-season and never came down, so there is a 2 year track record now. 2015 and before yeah it wasn't considered much of a wax investment.

[phil]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

overproduced; you think so? which ones?

Meant overproduced compared to what the demand to rip at current presell levels will be. I don't see the prices on releases that have gone up a lot, HHN, BC etc. holding after release.

[HadWayTooMuch]

Brent had mentioned on twitter about the bulk of people ordering who never ordered Heritage before.

I'm still ordering my usual amount (4 cases) but I have to say, I have a horrible feeling it's going to be very high until release and then get ugly. Especially if there is so much out there.

The one thing that could happen and should happen is Topps should cut the orders. Johnny No Clue has never ordered Heritage and he orders 10 cases figuring it'll be $150 a box in March. If he's cut back (along with the rest of us) then maybe it will stay high like that and not be watered down.

Heritage doesn't need to be $150 a box. Make it liquid at $80 a box giving shops opportunities to sell the boxes at a profit and everybody wins.

Buying at $55-59 and selling at $69 while taking credit cards is a disaster markup wise.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

amen, and even $800 sounds high, but direct cost is up this year

So how many cases are you breaking Brent?

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by phil

After release 2016 did gradually creep up to $100+/box mid-season and never came down, so there is a 2 year track record now. 2015 and before yeah it wasn't considered much of a wax investment.

OK, I agree with that, yet even still 2017 was at $200/box at one point which was insane
2016 went up mostly due to the Throwback craze which we didn't have this year
so if we don't have a TB craze and a Judge situation next year, those investing at current levels may run into a few issues, but never know, way way way too early

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by phil

Meant overproduced compared to what the demand to rip at current presell levels will be. I don't see the prices on releases that have gone up a lot, HHN, BC etc. holding after release.

gotcha
I agree, as long as no major surprises, like say Tim Tebow autos in BC (haha)

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by TarjetasBéisbol

So how many cases are you breaking Brent?

I order the same every year which is 40, although there was a 2 year period I did only 36 and another couple years I did 41 for some reason

my distributor told me today that he had requests from over the past week from 2 different guys who do basketball and don't mess with baseball for 25 cases and 30 cases each... I don't know anyone who breaks that many besides me
There are several 10-20 case breakers but to jump in your first time at that level...
All I can say is better pre-sale, have direct customers that you can move that kind of qty, and STUDY STUDY STUDY...know your market and what's what before you get busting

------------------------------------------------------
Heritage is a fun product (even if many think it is boring)
I enjoy the history, autos, errors, and whatnot...plus I collect several things in the product
But no one is getting rich off heritage (or anything for that matter)...I mean you'd have to do huge qty and keep losses to a minimum which even this year is not always easy...there were several releases that should have been good but did me in, like Stadium Club, Tribute, Ginter, etc
Heritage is typically one of the stronger releases so it does helps counter those releases, but only so much