**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[jfan2024]

Smh...now I'm looking at my last sealed case of optic 42s...maybe I'll just open the couple loose boxes I have left...

[rafibomb]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Hmm..you might be right as I can't definitively say otherwise. This was before I actually kept notes on box breaks. I broke a couple cases at a $400/case buy-in so this was before I even bothered keeping track like I have to now with current prices. Could've sworn it was 1 rookie holo/box though. The pink packs I remember some boxes where I'd get 2 rookie pinks in a pack and none in the other and then some boxes 1 in each but I recall getting 2/box on average.

Either way, if you assume Luka base PSA 9 - $300, PSA 10 - $850; Doncic holo PSA 9 - $2200, PSA 10 - $6500; Luka pink PSA 9 - $600, PSA 10 - $2000; and then a 50/50 shot at PSA 9 vs 10 fresh out the box:

On a 20-box case of the 42s, you'd average about 3 Luka base (7 base rookies/box x 20 boxes), let's give it a 1/3 chance of hitting his holo (15-20 rookie holos expected on a 50 card checklist), and a 4/5 chance you'll hit 1 of his pinks (~40 pinks expected on a 50 card checklist)

3 base expected value = $575 x 3 = $1725
33% holo expected value = $4450 x 1/3 = $1483
80% pink expected value = $1300 x 4/5 = $1040

Total expected value of Luka = $4,247 (excluding grading fees)

So roughly 40% of the $10k case price returned just on expected Luka before accounting for anything else. This is at current market price so assuming you don't even think Luka optic will go up at all. Either singles need to go down, or 18-19 optic 42s sealed wax (what OP was originally asking about) need to go up in price

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Smh...now I'm looking at my last sealed case of optic 42s...maybe I'll just open the couple loose boxes I have left...

Yeah I ripped my case for $400 as well. Crazy they were selling for half off msrp back then. I didn't pull a holo, but I pulled 2 base and 2 pink Luka. If you pull a Lebron holo that's also a big hit and you usually got at least 1 checkerboard and auto per case I think.

Those loose boxes would be ripped so fast if I had them lol. The only reason I haven't ripped my last case is because it's sealed and I can't actually see the boxes.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Hmm..you might be right as I can't definitively say otherwise. This was before I actually kept notes on box breaks. I broke a couple cases at a $400/case buy-in so this was before I even bothered keeping track like I have to now with current prices. Could've sworn it was 1 rookie holo/box though. The pink packs I remember some boxes where I'd get 2 rookie pinks in a pack and none in the other and then some boxes 1 in each but I recall getting 2/box on average.

Either way, if you assume Luka base PSA 9 - $300, PSA 10 - $850; Doncic holo PSA 9 - $2200, PSA 10 - $6500; Luka pink PSA 9 - $600, PSA 10 - $2000; and then a 50/50 shot at PSA 9 vs 10 fresh out the box:

On a 20-box case of the 42s, you'd average about 3 Luka base (7 base rookies/box x 20 boxes), let's give it a 1/3 chance of hitting his holo (15-20 rookie holos expected on a 50 card checklist), and a 4/5 chance you'll hit 1 of his pinks (~40 pinks expected on a 50 card checklist)

3 base expected value = $575 x 3 = $1725
33% holo expected value = $4450 x 1/3 = $1483
80% pink expected value = $1300 x 4/5 = $1040

Total expected value of Luka = $4,247 (excluding grading fees)

So roughly 40% of the $10k case price returned just on expected Luka before accounting for anything else. This is at current market price so assuming you don't even think Luka optic will go up at all. Either singles need to go down, or 18-19 optic 42s sealed wax (what OP was originally asking about) need to go up in price

Another big factor is Luka autos. I watched one breaker break 6 cases in a row and each case had a Luka base auto. Of course I got in the next one and only got base cards but it's definitely worked out.

[jfan2024]

You both are right but also killing me now..will I do something stupid with my optic wax..especially considering it's only a $10k opportunity cost and not an actual cash outlay cost to me..

40% value returned without even considering the checkerboards, autos, the massive points cards that came out of 18-19 optic, LeBron 18-19 optic which is off the charts, any Trae or other rookies, etc...

[pokerkeith]

Yes my 2 boxes are the optic 58s which were target exclusive and not the wal mart 42 exclusive.

[jfan2024]

Originally Posted by pokerkeith

Yes my 2 boxes are the optic 58s which were target exclusive and not the wal mart 42 exclusive.

The 58s are a much easier decision since it's basically just a set. If you think the set of 18-19 rookie class will go up, hold or rip. If you don't, sell

[RogerGodahell]

That's the great thing about 18-19, it was such a good draft. Even if you don't hit a Luka there's a good chance you'll get a Trae or SGA someone else. I think there will be like 5 or 6 guys in that draft class that go on to be All-Star caliber players.

[jmcca170]

Kudos to this guy if you’re in here lol




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[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by jmcca170

Kudos to this guy if you’re in here lol




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Mother of god

[pokerkeith]

No way i am ripping a 500 dollar box of cards in the 2018 optic mega. i hear the luka are almost always damanged so its basically just a decision of sell or hoold.I got the same issue with 2018 2019 court kings blasters. Hold or sell.

[Timo]

Originally Posted by jmcca170

Kudos to this guy if you’re in here lol




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Jeezus

[spacewrangler]

Just got my Immaculate /77 RPA in the mail

Shout out to the South Korean collectors. Seller got it from Seoul to the US east coast in 5 days freaking days.

Soooo happy with this card I've wanted it since release. Very clean example of 2018 Immaculate, some paper dust/fibers I'm dying to brush off but don't want to screw up that redemption sticker.. Possibly mint back-bottom-left corner? Not grading until I can take it into PSA personally next year. To me it looks damn fine and thats all that matters in the mean time

Better pics: https://imgur.com/a/8pA3LQr

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by spacewrangler

Just got my Immaculate /77 RPA in the mail

Shout out to the South Korean collectors. Seller got it from Seoul to the US east coast in 5 days freaking days.

Soooo happy with this card I've wanted it since release. Very clean example of 2018 Immaculate, some paper dust/fibers I'm dying to brush off but don't want to screw up that redemption sticker.. Possibly mint back-bottom-left corner? Not grading until I can take it into PSA personally next year. To me it looks damn fine and thats all that matters in the mean time

Better pics: https://imgur.com/a/8pA3LQr

congrats man, that's way nicer than my back corners! best of luck with grading / holding / displaying

[ecoeconomic]

Not a rookie card or numbered, but a very nice blue on blue Luka at an affordable price for nearly everyone:
Court Kings 2019-20 Maestro

[WalterAZ31]

stuffs definitely going back up

the prize of my entire collection, (the only real prize lol) i have left after selling mahomes and soto is a 2018-19 Optic Luka Blue Velocity PSA 10 that i refused to sell when times got tough last year this time

it fell to about $1800 card a month ago or so, and now last one sold for $2500.........

imo his stuff is just going to explode after that first triple double of season, opening night for them vs the Suns should be a blast

[spacewrangler]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

congrats man, that's way nicer than my back corners! best of luck with grading / holding / displaying

Thank you! Might be the best 2018 Immac back corners I've seen. Still totally shocked I could buy it.

[BC81]

Originally Posted by spacewrangler

Just got my Immaculate /77 RPA in the mail

Shout out to the South Korean collectors. Seller got it from Seoul to the US east coast in 5 days freaking days.

Soooo happy with this card I've wanted it since release. Very clean example of 2018 Immaculate, some paper dust/fibers I'm dying to brush off but don't want to screw up that redemption sticker.. Possibly mint back-bottom-left corner? Not grading until I can take it into PSA personally next year. To me it looks damn fine and thats all that matters in the mean time

Better pics: https://imgur.com/a/8pA3LQr

Congratulations on the sale. That is a very nice pick up!


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[BosPats1980]

Congrats!! Enjoy!!

Originally Posted by spacewrangler

Just got my Immaculate /77 RPA in the mail

Shout out to the South Korean collectors. Seller got it from Seoul to the US east coast in 5 days freaking days.

Soooo happy with this card I've wanted it since release. Very clean example of 2018 Immaculate, some paper dust/fibers I'm dying to brush off but don't want to screw up that redemption sticker.. Possibly mint back-bottom-left corner? Not grading until I can take it into PSA personally next year. To me it looks damn fine and thats all that matters in the mean time

Better pics: https://imgur.com/a/8pA3LQr

[Chris P]

Thrilled to get this in the mail today! Such a stunning card

[triks]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

congrats man, that's way nicer than my back corners! best of luck with grading / holding / displaying

Thats real nice...dont even want to look at mine...lol

[Slim]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Thrilled to get this in the mail today! Such a stunning card

Very nice pickup

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by WalterAZ31

stuffs definitely going back up

the prize of my entire collection, (the only real prize lol) i have left after selling mahomes and soto is a 2018-19 Optic Luka Blue Velocity PSA 10 that i refused to sell when times got tough last year this time

it fell to about $1800 card a month ago or so, and now last one sold for $2500.........

imo his stuff is just going to explode after that first triple double of season, opening night for them vs the Suns should be a blast

Yes they are sweet in hand and still pretty affordable IMO, also very hard to gem

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Thrilled to get this in the mail today! Such a stunning card

Welcome to the Blue Elite club. Underrated, but much appreciated.

[Slim]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Yes they are sweet in hand and still pretty affordable IMO, also very hard to gem

Sweet baby Jesus

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by ecoeconomic

Not a rookie card or numbered, but a very nice blue on blue Luka at an affordable price for nearly everyone:
Court Kings 2019-20 Maestro

I like the look of these as well. Bought a few of the numbered ones when they first came out.