2019-20 NT FOTL

[ChasingZion]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Exceeded weekly posh quota.



For now, Bass master shall suffice.

Is that the sweater Panini used for the Hoops Holiday cards this year?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by ChasingZion

Is that the sweater Panini used for the Hoops Holiday cards this year?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Still better than a 2nd tier NT hit.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

still better than a 2nd tier nt hit.

rookie......patch......celtics.......romeo langford.....


Booom

grats celts.....

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

rookie......patch......celtics.......romeo langford.....


Booom

grats celts.....

Can you record that with the signature falsetto on the 2nd and 3rd vowels in boom?

I need a new ringtone.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Can you record that with the signature falsetto on the 2nd and 3rd vowels in boom?

I need a new ringtone.

sure thing...$499.95*

*no consonants ship

[Asian62150]

BO inching up! $11,250

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

The biggest difference in these later releases is, there's ONLY focus on the last / highest sale, not the bigger picture.

Prizm was widely available for preorder and shortly after release for slightly above SRP. I remember people adamantly refusing to buy even when it was $600/case. It took several months, with virtually NO competition from other products, to reach the 5x SRP mark. AND the volume moving at current price point is very low. Seriously, if you have a closet full of the stuff and want to liquidate all of it, you're going to have to take a 20% cut because even listed at 10% under BO or D&A pricing on ebay, it took me a couple weeks to sell 4 blasters. Again, this is for the most desired, mainstream product.

NT came out the gate @800% of SRP. This was too much, and everyone knows it. I participated in one "random serial number" break this weekend, and even for the MINIMUM commitment to this product, I essentially lit $175 on fire. I knew it was a bad idea at the time, but figured, what the hell, I want to at least be a part of this for a second. Well, guess what. 40 cards out of 100 participants means 60 people are getting absolutely skunked. 30 more are getting some form of base card or patch that's worth $10, which is still a 90%+ loss. There's not going to be much tolerance for this at current levels, and I feel like this is the first time the market is pushing back on the supply side, as breaks are definitely not filling as quickly as they should for the #1 high end product.

Quick check of their websites show Plat did ~ 30 cases, Layton did 21. Jaspy's is still working on #8, Mojo did 11. There's FOUR THOUSAND CASES of this stuff. NT is your summer blockbuster, and for an opening weekend, this was pitiful. Sure, there are degenerates out there, but to open even half of the print run, it's going to take around $32 Million dollars. To me, that's just not feasible. This market isn't as big as people here like to think. To run up some Net Marvels or Bass PSA 10s only takes a few thousand dollars to completely manipulate a market and start some false momentum. This here is going to take millions in guaranteed losses, and is just not sustainable. I really think that if we don't see enough broken in the first month we might see them start dropping the price. Remember with the production stoppage we're seeing new products every couple weeks now. Noir, Court Kings, NT, and soon Spectra, Obsidian, Chronicles, Opulence. We went from product-starved to overload, there's not enough cash to support everything being dumped at 500%+ SRP at once.

The good thing about random team and serial breaks is I'll be picking off my Warriors cards and probably be able to get everything I want for the price of entrance to 2-3 team breaks, going to be tons of people ending up with cards they don't want because of the way they had to join breaks.

Just wanted to give an update on the above numbers a week later. Plat went from ~30 cases completed to 51. Layton went from 21 complete to 36. Jaspy's completed their 8th and haven't posted more. Mojo went from 11 to 15. As I suspected, there was a huge dropoff week over week (69 completed cases in 3 days to 41 in 7 days), and after 2 full weekends of breaks I suspect 1) initial excitement has died down and 2) everybody is broke. Smaller break rooms aren't going to be able to fill this anymore and are already advertising new / more affordable products (Spectra, Court Kings, even Mosaic). Plat and LSC will probably push on but the participation is going to get thinner and thinner. We're only at 15/99 Zions on the tracker, my guess is we don't hit 50 until Fall, if that. Whoever is holding all the inventory going to try and maintain this pricing forever?

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Just wanted to give an update on the above numbers a week later. Plat went from ~30 cases completed to 51. Layton went from 21 complete to 36. Jaspy's completed their 8th and haven't posted more. Mojo went from 11 to 15. As I suspected, there was a huge dropoff week over week (69 completed cases in 3 days to 41 in 7 days), and after 2 full weekends of breaks I suspect 1) initial excitement has died down and 2) everybody is broke. Smaller break rooms aren't going to be able to fill this anymore and are already advertising new / more affordable products (Spectra, Court Kings, even Mosaic). Plat and LSC will probably push on but the participation is going to get thinner and thinner. We're only at 15/99 Zions on the tracker, my guess is we don't hit 50 until Fall, if that. Whoever is holding all the inventory going to try and maintain this pricing forever?

Guessing single rpa prices stay high then all around as not enough supply vs demand

[shakobe]

Well IG guy 26collectibles just pulled a Zion fotl rpa using the proceeds he earned from his group break. Wow smart

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Just wanted to give an update on the above numbers a week later. Plat went from ~30 cases completed to 51. Layton went from 21 complete to 36. Jaspy's completed their 8th and haven't posted more. Mojo went from 11 to 15. As I suspected, there was a huge dropoff week over week (69 completed cases in 3 days to 41 in 7 days), and after 2 full weekends of breaks I suspect 1) initial excitement has died down and 2) everybody is broke. Smaller break rooms aren't going to be able to fill this anymore and are already advertising new / more affordable products (Spectra, Court Kings, even Mosaic). Plat and LSC will probably push on but the participation is going to get thinner and thinner. We're only at 15/99 Zions on the tracker, my guess is we don't hit 50 until Fall, if that. Whoever is holding all the inventory going to try and maintain this pricing forever?

That's a tough one. I think it's a good long hold but i don't think a lot of the smaller breakers have the cash flow to hold longterm like that but i could be wrong. $16K a case adds up pretty fast. My guess is the distributors have a sht ton of it because of what i just mentioned. Panini was fishing for the top on this stuff from the beginning. I don't know what they ended up selling it to distributors for but i bet it was a lot less than $4K box. I know anyone who is sitting on any right now probably isn't willing to take a loss. It's going to hurt some people if the distributors want to start moving it and reduce the price. I don't know what they'll do. My guess is the distributors will just stash it away. They've made a lot of money this year i think they can probably afford to and play the long game.

[Spacemanspif]

Not that eBay auctions are the end all, but a seller auctioned off a case, one box per day, and got $3800, $3800, $3550, $3550. We already knew $4k was high, at this rate you have one buyer willing to go above even $3500... I fastforwarded through Plat’s breaks tonight and good lord these things don’t even approach 20% of the $16k mark

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by shakobe

Well IG guy 26collectibles just pulled a Zion fotl rpa using the proceeds he earned from his group break. Wow smart

What kinda format did he run. Maybe ill do something like that too lmao. Would kill me to ship out not knowing..

[shakobe]

Originally Posted by jkl165116

What kinda format did he run. Maybe ill do something like that too lmao. Would kill me to ship out not knowing..

It was a 52 spot format at 2k a spot ($104k total) for 4 cases of NT basketball and 2 boxes of NT FOTL. All hits to be graded and auctioned off on ebay.

[Ra3]

Originally Posted by shakobe

Well IG guy 26collectibles just pulled a Zion fotl rpa using the proceeds he earned from his group break. Wow smart

Pretty interesting, and I think that’s the third Zion/30 that I’ve seen so far (#s 22,28, 30). I’m actually mildly surprised to have seen that many pulled (10% of the run) and i wonder if it’s slightly fortunate or right on track proportionally with the number of FOTL boxes opened. If 165 of the 1650 boxes have been opened, that’s actually more than I would have thought.

Spacemanspif’s info on hobby cases opened by large group breakers is also very interesting, especially combined with deadshot’s RPA tracker. looks like info points to roughly 15%-plus of cases/boxes of hobby opened, but perhaps slowing momentum. Amazing to think so many of these might never see the light of day.

On those ebay auctions of the individual boxes, it’s perhaps worth noting the buyer probably paid closer to $3800/$4000 per box depending on taxes (but also that the seller was willing to net a lot less after fees!).

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by shakobe

It was a 52 spot format at 2k a spot ($104k total) for 4 cases of NT basketball and 2 boxes of NT FOTL. All hits to be graded and auctioned off on ebay.

Wow that filled?? Pretty big profit margin

[hermanotarjeta]

Hobby case prices are dropping, my local guy begging me to take a case off his hands for $14500.

How much lower will hobby cases go before you buy?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Hobby case prices are dropping, my local guy begging me to take a case off his hands for $14500.

How much lower will hobby cases go before you buy?

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Also for anybody wondering:

Dealers are currently moving the Hobby boxes at $3550 today.

They’ve moved 3 FOTL Boxes for $10K and 1 at $11K.

Right now you can get hobby from BO @ $3952.
Right now BO is selling 2 FOTL Boxes at $12648.

So BO says FOTL is roughly 320% greater than Hobby. I’ve got it between 5-700% greater. Those Hobby prices will keep coming down.

My buddy was offered cases at $12K per pop, but he had to take on 10 at a time.

Almost 2 weeks ago. I’d guess the $14.5K is still probably high relative to supply.

[beavers]

Blowout's bounty went back down to $11k. Trying to shake weak hands.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

The biggest difference in these later releases is, there's ONLY focus on the last / highest sale, not the bigger picture.

Prizm was widely available for preorder and shortly after release for slightly above SRP. I remember people adamantly refusing to buy even when it was $600/case. It took several months, with virtually NO competition from other products, to reach the 5x SRP mark. AND the volume moving at current price point is very low. Seriously, if you have a closet full of the stuff and want to liquidate all of it, you're going to have to take a 20% cut because even listed at 10% under BO or D&A pricing on ebay, it took me a couple weeks to sell 4 blasters. Again, this is for the most desired, mainstream product.

NT came out the gate @800% of SRP. This was too much, and everyone knows it. I participated in one "random serial number" break this weekend, and even for the MINIMUM commitment to this product, I essentially lit $175 on fire. I knew it was a bad idea at the time, but figured, what the hell, I want to at least be a part of this for a second. Well, guess what. 40 cards out of 100 participants means 60 people are getting absolutely skunked. 30 more are getting some form of base card or patch that's worth $10, which is still a 90%+ loss. There's not going to be much tolerance for this at current levels, and I feel like this is the first time the market is pushing back on the supply side, as breaks are definitely not filling as quickly as they should for the #1 high end product.

Quick check of their websites show Plat did ~ 30 cases, Layton did 21. Jaspy's is still working on #8, Mojo did 11. There's FOUR THOUSAND CASES of this stuff. NT is your summer blockbuster, and for an opening weekend, this was pitiful. Sure, there are degenerates out there, but to open even half of the print run, it's going to take around $32 Million dollars. To me, that's just not feasible. This market isn't as big as people here like to think. To run up some Net Marvels or Bass PSA 10s only takes a few thousand dollars to completely manipulate a market and start some false momentum. This here is going to take millions in guaranteed losses, and is just not sustainable. I really think that if we don't see enough broken in the first month we might see them start dropping the price. Remember with the production stoppage we're seeing new products every couple weeks now. Noir, Court Kings, NT, and soon Spectra, Obsidian, Chronicles, Opulence. We went from product-starved to overload, there's not enough cash to support everything being dumped at 500%+ SRP at once.

The good thing about random team and serial breaks is I'll be picking off my Warriors cards and probably be able to get everything I want for the price of entrance to 2-3 team breaks, going to be tons of people ending up with cards they don't want because of the way they had to join breaks.

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Just wanted to give an update on the above numbers a week later. Plat went from ~30 cases completed to 51. Layton went from 21 complete to 36. Jaspy's completed their 8th and haven't posted more. Mojo went from 11 to 15. As I suspected, there was a huge dropoff week over week (69 completed cases in 3 days to 41 in 7 days), and after 2 full weekends of breaks I suspect 1) initial excitement has died down and 2) everybody is broke. Smaller break rooms aren't going to be able to fill this anymore and are already advertising new / more affordable products (Spectra, Court Kings, even Mosaic). Plat and LSC will probably push on but the participation is going to get thinner and thinner. We're only at 15/99 Zions on the tracker, my guess is we don't hit 50 until Fall, if that. Whoever is holding all the inventory going to try and maintain this pricing forever?

One more update on the NT case breaks:
Opening Weekend (6/15) // Week 2 (6/22) // Week 3 (6/29)
Platinum: 30 // 51 // 60 (only 4 more up, plus a serial # and a random)
Layton: 23 // 36 // 41 (only selling 1 serial # and 1 tiered random team now)
Jaspys: 7 // 8 // 8 (no more for sale)
Mojo: 11 // 15 // 18 (only a 2 box serial # for sale)

Momentum is gone. I think it's been said all along, but this was priced way too high. The belief that there is infinite money out there from idiots / degenerates is simply not true. Good luck to all those sitting on tens of thousands of dollars of this product who were hoping to pass it off to someone else. I'm sure there are buyers out there but doesn't seem like it's going to be easy to move volume

[blevins26]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

One more update on the NT case breaks:
Opening Weekend (6/15) // Week 2 (6/22) // Week 3 (6/29)
Platinum: 30 // 51 // 60 (only 4 more up, plus a serial # and a random)
Layton: 23 // 36 // 41 (only selling 1 serial # and 1 tiered random team now)
Jaspys: 7 // 8 // 8 (no more for sale)
Mojo: 11 // 15 // 18 (only a 2 box serial # for sale)

Momentum is gone. I think it's been said all along, but this was priced way too high. The belief that there is infinite money out there from idiots / degenerates is simply not true. Good luck to all those sitting on tens of thousands of dollars of this product who were hoping to pass it off to someone else. I'm sure there are buyers out there but doesn't seem like it's going to be easy to move volume

I think I'm correct in saying that the numbers per week are cumulative? It's not completely clear from your post but the previous posts seem to indicate that.

Would be more informational if you posed the # of cases broken each week to highlight the decrease in participation.

[peterose4hof]

You don't think interest will perk up when Zion & Ja are on the court vying for playoff spots?

I agree it takes a lot of money to support these breaks, but this is just a lull.

Also, don't underestimate the power of another round of stimulus checks.

[Ra3]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

One more update on the NT case breaks:
Opening Weekend (6/15) // Week 2 (6/22) // Week 3 (6/29)
Platinum: 30 // 51 // 60 (only 4 more up, plus a serial # and a random)
Layton: 23 // 36 // 41 (only selling 1 serial # and 1 tiered random team now)
Jaspys: 7 // 8 // 8 (no more for sale)
Mojo: 11 // 15 // 18 (only a 2 box serial # for sale)

Momentum is gone. I think it's been said all along, but this was priced way too high. The belief that there is infinite money out there from idiots / degenerates is simply not true. Good luck to all those sitting on tens of thousands of dollars of this product who were hoping to pass it off to someone else. I'm sure there are buyers out there but doesn't seem like it's going to be easy to move volume

Wow. So adding up those major case breakers nums adds up to a pretty small percentage of the total. I haven’t looked at the Zion and Ja RPA trackers recently but maybe 15/20 of each pulled?

Still pretty early, but unless something changes the equilibrium between pricing and breaking it’s looking like we aren’t going to see a lot of the big cards out of this year’s NT...? Kind of a bummer if it turns out that way; I have to think there’s still another chapter to be written here...

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by blevins26

I think I'm correct in saying that the numbers per week are cumulative? It's not completely clear from your post but the previous posts seem to indicate that.

Would be more informational if you posed the # of cases broken each week to highlight the decrease in participation.

Yes, they are cumulative. Just to be clear, the whole point of doing this was to look at the "burn rate" of NT cases. It is not meant to estimate how much of the print run has been opened, as I think the RPA tracker is probably the best way to estimate that. Also, these breakers have broken more cases than this (via serial #, half cases, mixers, etc), but I chose the "main" way they were breaking NT so I could just get a consistent count week over week, and I chose 2 "Large", 1 "Medium", 1 "Small" breaker to show the slowdown (basically only the "Large" breakers will be able to fill any going forward)

Anyway, between these 4 breakers they went through:
Opening weekend: 71 cases
Week 2: 39 cases
Week 3: 17 cases
Week 4: only 5 breaks are up for sale right now, so I'm thinking single digits.

There's currently 17 Zion RPAs up on the tracker. At this rate half of them won't see the light of day. And if you're wondering, NO it will not drive the price of the rest up. There's only a few people on earth able to spend the price of a small house on a piece of cardboard, and they've either already picked one up or they're waiting out the sellers.

Again, I'd suspect an eventual price drop in the wax price because at $16k per, there's not a ton of companies who can afford to sit on that much inventory that isn't moving.

[beavers]

Blowout bounty on the FOTL boxes dropped to $10,000.

Interesting. With virtually no Ebay buyers and breakers moving on, Blowout just stuck a knife in anyone hoping to dump in the short term. I think these will eventually rise again, but they have definitely shown us the price point where demand dies.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by beavers

Blowout bounty on the FOTL boxes dropped to $10,000.

Interesting. With virtually no Ebay buyers and breakers moving on, Blowout just stuck a knife in anyone hoping to dump in the short term. I think these will eventually rise again, but they have definitely shown us the price point where demand dies.

NT NBA going down.
NT Collegiate going up.