HOF Pace Tracker

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I don't want someone telling me 30 years from now that Rafael Palmeiro was better than player x. Can't legitimize that nonsense. They knew there would be consequences. They got the fame and the money, they lose the legacy. Them's the breaks

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Who lol?


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[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Who lol?


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Exactly. Rafael Palmeiro "hit" 568 home runs and has a 70 WAR, which would be impressive if achieved naturally. Allowing him in the hall would lend credibility to stats that we all know are BS.

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[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

So just revisiting. What are the current MLB players on the HOF track?

Bobbt Witt Jr. just had one of the best months of baseball in recent memory. He's put up 3 WAR since July 1st - .489/524/862! 278 wRC+ He's .5 WAR ahead of Judge ATM - If he beats Judge in WAR and brings KC into the playoffs I could see him winning MVP - Judge & Soto might split some votes and as long as Judge doesn't hit 60 HRs or something crazy.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Bobbt Witt Jr. just had one of the best months of baseball in recent memory. He's put up 3 WAR since July 1st - .489/524/862! 278 wRC+ He's .5 WAR ahead of Judge ATM - If he beats Judge in WAR and brings KC into the playoffs I could see him winning MVP - Judge & Soto might split some votes and as long as Judge doesn't hit 60 HRs or something crazy.

You think he beats Judge for MVP? I’d gather they give more votes to Henderson instead of Soto


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[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Bobbt Witt Jr. just had one of the best months of baseball in recent memory. He's put up 3 WAR since July 1st - .489/524/862! 278 wRC+ He's .5 WAR ahead of Judge ATM - If he beats Judge in WAR and brings KC into the playoffs I could see him winning MVP - Judge & Soto might split some votes and as long as Judge doesn't hit 60 HRs or something crazy.

According to Baseball Reference, Witt leads in games (110), runs (93), hits (153), and average (.350).

Judge is only 2 games back in games played and leads in HR (39), RBIs (99), OBP (.447), SLG (.689), OPS (1.136), OPS+ (214), TB (266), and WAR (7.4). Add in the home run chases and Captain of the Yankees and I'm not sure anyone is going to top him in the MVP race. Throw in Judge has over twice as many walks as Witt too.

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

You think he beats Judge for MVP? I’d gather they give more votes to Henderson instead of Soto


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Henderson is dropping out of the MVP race IMO. He doesn't even lead his own team in home runs anymore.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

Henderson is dropping out of the MVP race IMO. He doesn't even lead his own team in home runs anymore.

Yeah but I dont think Witt will beat Judge. Yes I’m biased


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[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Exactly. Rafael Palmeiro "hit" 568 home runs and has a 70 WAR, which would be impressive if achieved naturally. Allowing him in the hall would lend credibility to stats that we all know are BS.

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The problem is that there are likely steroid users already in the Hall, eg, Bagwell, Pudge, Ortiz.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

The problem is that there are likely steroid users already in the Hall, eg, Bagwell, Pudge, Ortiz.

Agreed but that is not valid justification to me, to add more

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[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Yeah but I dont think Witt will beat Judge. Yes I’m biased

Last week all I thought was Judge just needs to stay healthy and he'll walk away with the MVP, but Bobby Witt is playing out of his mind.

I think a couple things would probably need to happen for Witt to have a legit shot MVP.

Witt needs more WAR than Judge
KC makes the posteseason
Witt needs to walk away with the batting title

More help
Witt is 30/30
Witt is gold glove SS (postseason award but Witt is considerded an elite SS)

Obviously, if Judge misses some time or gets into a funk that could swing things

It'll be interesting. But I can't imagine Witt stayin on this pace. We've all seen Judge do it. And if Judge gets to 60 and Witt doesn't lead by 1 WAR or more at the end, it'll be Judge.

[tyrith]

The update is going to have a little more writing, because I want to take some time to talk about where these guys are at in the hobby and how their long term prognosis interacts with that. I think that requires a little bit of big picture understanding about what the HOF means for hobby prices, though.

Just getting into the HOF doesn't really mean a ton in the long term. Sure, it'll keep some players more conscious in the hobby than if they missed...but we're talking incrementally. Scott Rolen making it into the Hall hasn't caused a bum rush for Scott Rolen cards. The same for someone like Todd Helton, or if Billy Wagner makes it in this year. This applies double for the Vet Committee; no one cares about Harold Baines just because they made a horrible choice.

What's really important for long term player value is being the kind of player that meets one or both of these criteria -

1) A player that's a realistic candidate to get in on the first or second ballot
2) A player that has a constituency that WANT the player to get into the Hall, even if they are borderline

Group 1 includes some guys that have made a slow burn towards being at least slightly hobby relevant. The first guy that comes to mind for me on that is Adrian Beltre. He wasn't really THE GUY at any point in his career, but he made himself an undeniable Hall candidate and made some real fans along the way (particularly Rangers fans.)

Group 2 is players that had some pizzazz to them during their career. A lot of these guys will wind up in Group 1 if they meet some threshold that will let the voters justify voting for them - David Ortiz is maybe the best recent example. Andruw Jones is another guy that comes to mind - not that his cards are particularly valuable, but there's still a fanbase that cares a little even if he doesn't get in on the BBWAA ballot. Being a Yankee helps too, as this is Don Mattingly territory.

I'll write more on specific players, but as a preliminary, here are some current guys that I might see in these categories -

GUYS THAT COULD MAKE THE HALL, OR NOT, AND IT WON'T REALLY MATTER
Evan Longoria
Andrew McCutchen
Xander Bogaerts

1st BALLOT POSSIBILITIES THAT WILL KEEP SOME RELEVANCE BECAUSE OF IT
Jose Ramirez
Francisco Lindor
Nolan Arenado

PLAYERS WITH A CONSTITUENCY
Giancarlo Stanton
Corey Seager
Jacob deGrom

Shooting for tomorrow on the update, I've already pulled the numbers.

[Biohazarddfl]

Great points all around

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[kipgen]

Any thoughts on Jackson Chourio?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Any thoughts on Jackson Chourio?

He's already got enough WAR to be on the list through the end of next year.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by tyrith

The update is going to have a little more writing, because I want to take some time to talk about where these guys are at in the hobby and how their long term prognosis interacts with that. I think that requires a little bit of big picture understanding about what the HOF means for hobby prices, though.

I was looking at All-Star voting history to see if that was a predictor to long term popularity. 2024 had Judge, Ohtani & Harper as the top vote getters. Seems like it might be a good tool. But if you go back a bit you see it is NOT predictive.

2016: Salvador Perez (KC)
2015: Josh Donaldson (TOR)
2014: José Bautista (TOR)
2013: Chris Davis (BAL)
2012: Josh Hamilton (TEX)
2011: José Bautista (TOR)

If anything it is reminder how quickly a guy can go from being top of the baseball world to almost forgotten.

Also, without looking, you'll probably never guess who was the top vote getter 4 times in the 1970s.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I was looking at All-Star voting history to see if that was a predictor to long term popularity. 2024 had Judge, Ohtani & Harper as the top vote getters. Seems like it might be a good tool. But if you go back a bit you see it is NOT predictive.

2016: Salvador Perez (KC)
2015: Josh Donaldson (TOR)
2014: José Bautista (TOR)
2013: Chris Davis (BAL)
2012: Josh Hamilton (TEX)
2011: José Bautista (TOR)

If anything it is reminder how quickly a guy can go from being top of the baseball world to almost forgotten.

Also, without looking, you'll probably never guess who was the top vote getter 4 times in the 1970s.

Yeah, I think of baseball popularity as more of a slow burn than that. Someone like Perez has a chance at a shred of relevance (and relevance for the HOF) just because he's been someone care about for a really long time. Donaldson types, well...there was an orange Donaldson 1st CPA that went for like $70 sometime recently. And this is a guy with a mid 40s WAR total, a true Hall of Very Good player.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Yeah, I think of baseball popularity as more of a slow burn than that. Someone like Perez has a chance at a shred of relevance (and relevance for the HOF) just because he's been someone care about for a really long time. Donaldson types, well...there was an orange Donaldson 1st CPA that went for like $70 sometime recently. And this is a guy with a mid 40s WAR total, a true Hall of Very Good player.

I was just kinda shocked that Jose Bautista was the top vote getter 4 years apart.
Also, kinda surprising that Rod Carew was the top vote getter 4 times in the 70s. I woulda guessed Reggie, Bench, Rose, Schmidt... maybe Stargell or even Brett before I got to Carew. Though I think Carew had a .340 average for all of the 70s, back when batting titles where king.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I was just kinda shocked that Jose Bautista was the top vote getter 4 years apart.

Also, kinda surprising that Rod Carew was the top vote getter 4 times in the 70s. I woulda guessed Reggie, Bench, Rose, Schmidt... maybe Stargell or even Brett before I got to Carew. Though I think Carew had a .340 average for all of the 70s, back when batting titles where king.

I chalk some of that up to those franchises knowing how to get out the vote back then

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[tyrith]

Bautista was also a really big deal and a cool player for a few years in there. He has close to a HOF level WAR7 number, he's just negative WAR outside of those 7 years.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I was just kinda shocked that Jose Bautista was the top vote getter 4 years apart.
Also, kinda surprising that Rod Carew was the top vote getter 4 times in the 70s. I woulda guessed Reggie, Bench, Rose, Schmidt... maybe Stargell or even Brett before I got to Carew. Though I think Carew had a .340 average for all of the 70s, back when batting titles where king.

Rod Carew was a superstar in the 70s. Carew hit .343 for the decade. Of players that played the whole decade, Rose was second at .314. Carew won 6 batting titles (7 overall). He also played most of the decade at 2b, a weaker offensive position, so he didn't have a lot of competion at his position for votes. He was voted a starter the first 9 AS votes and 14 of the first 15.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Agreed but that is not valid justification to me, to add more

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We can have this argument until we're blue in the face. If you kicked out everyone in the HOF who used substances that are banned now the hall would be empty. Not to mention people who were criminals and had other scandals that would not fly by today's standards. There was no real drug testing until 2004. Steroids were common with athletes going back until at least the 60s. Amphetamine were commonly used since the 40s.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by rms13

We can have this argument until we're blue in the face. If you kicked out everyone in the HOF who used substances that are banned now the hall would be empty. Not to mention people who were criminals and had other scandals that would not fly by today's standards. There was no real drug testing until 2004. Steroids were common with athletes going back until at least the 60s. Amphetamine were commonly used since the 40s.

Good thing the voters disagree with you

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[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rats60

Rod Carew was a superstar in the 70s. Carew hit .343 for the decade. Of players that played the whole decade, Rose was second at .314. Carew won 6 batting titles (7 overall). He also played most of the decade at 2b, a weaker offensive position, so he didn't have a lot of competion at his position for votes. He was voted a starter the first 9 AS votes and 14 of the first 15.

Yep. I seem to remember Carew being the most expensive card in most sets when price guides first became a thing.

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Good thing the voters disagree with you

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For now.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Good thing the voters disagree with you

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Yes I'm glad I have nothing in common with a bunch gate keeping out of touch grumpy old men

[rms13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Bautista was also a really big deal and a cool player for a few years in there. He has close to a HOF level WAR7 number, he's just negative WAR outside of those 7 years.

Joey Bats has the greatest bat flip in the history of baseball. He inspired an entire generation to get to the point where at now when guys flip after a walk.