Topps out---Fanatics in

[rms13]

Originally Posted by Kracer52

It doesn't matter what value the brands have to Topps and Panini. Fanatics has no reason to pay anything for them, and it sounds like they want to do their own thing. They will have complete exclusivity in the 3 largest American sports, they can call it whatever they want, they'll be the only game in town.

Exactly. Overall it seems like Fanatics is a much stronger brand right now than Topps or Panini. They will already have sports card market and their brand maybe reaches sports fans that aren’t necessarily into cards now. Once Topps goes bankrupt they can buy the Topps name for pennies on the dollar and produce lines of Topps branded cards in the future but I don’t think they will spend any real money to do that because there is no reason. If you want to collect baseball cards you’ll have to buy Fanatics

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by Kracer52

It doesn't matter what value the brands have to Topps and Panini. Fanatics has no reason to pay anything for them, and it sounds like they want to do their own thing. They will have complete exclusivity in the 3 largest American sports, they can call it whatever they want, they'll be the only game in town.

Fanatics has purchased brands before and without the value of the licenses, Topps and Panini may find themselves in positions where it makes sense to sell low.

If it happens, it’ll be because some MBAs at Fanatics says they will make money. Same reason they would have done the deal with the leagues/PAs for the price point they picked.

[Kracer52]

Originally Posted by rms13

Exactly. Overall it seems like Fanatics is a much stronger brand right now than Topps or Panini. They will already have sports card market and their brand maybe reaches sports fans that aren’t necessarily into cards now. Once Topps goes bankrupt they can buy the Topps name for pennies on the dollar and produce lines of Topps branded cards in the future but I don’t think they will spend any real money to do that because there is no reason. If you want to collect baseball cards you’ll have to buy Fanatics

To be clear, I don't think thats going to happen either. Topps has a lot of revenue streams and has a chance to pare down their business and keep on going. The candy side alone usually counts for nearly half their total revenue (outside of the card boom in the last year or so). I also think Fanatics wants to make their own identity and want to stay away from using the same "legacy" brands that Panini and Topps have been using.

And, since they are going to be the only place to buy cards, they can do whatever you want. This is why I think this will be awful for consumers. Its one thing to have sport/card company exclusives where Panini/Topps/UD control different sectors, but this is going to be the 3 largest sports under one house with zero non-logo cards even faux competing.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rms13

Exactly. Overall it seems like Fanatics is a much stronger brand right now than Topps or Panini. They will already have sports card market and their brand maybe reaches sports fans that aren’t necessarily into cards now. Once Topps goes bankrupt they can buy the Topps name for pennies on the dollar and produce lines of Topps branded cards in the future but I don’t think they will spend any real money to do that because there is no reason. If you want to collect baseball cards you’ll have to buy Fanatics

The problem for F is that that they can't make fully licensed baseball cards until 2026. Maybe people will move to cards with no logos the next few years if that's all there is, but I don't think you'll see huge sales or anything close to what topps has been doing.

Topps could also continue to exist as a much smaller company. They don't just automatically go bankrupt. Again as recent as 2019 the revenue from candy was as large as cards. They probably will sell the baseball card ip at some point, but people keep acting like all their revenue was baseball, it wasn't. They're still doing over 200M a year in candy revenue.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by premium1981

If they made “X” amount per license that is exactly what would happen. They would want the sub tiers to fight for market share, because they make more in the end. The only way it doesn’t go that route is if fanatics prints it all themselves. But I see no way that happens. I think we do indeed head back towards a similar market style that existed 20 years ago. Just talking choices here, not price or value or anything else.

Fanatics would control what every brand is. They aren't going to say ok Topps, Panini, UD you all make a base brand, a semi-premium brand, a premium brand. They would say ok Topps you make flagship, Panini you make national treasure, etc. Its a monopoly they would divide up the market how they want, they wouldn't have them compete against each other, that would just be a waste of costs.

[Kracer52]

Originally Posted by 80s Kid

Fanatics has purchased brands before and without the value of the licenses, Topps and Panini may find themselves in positions where it makes sense to sell low.

If it happens, it’ll be because some MBAs at Fanatics says they will make money. Same reason they would have done the deal with the leagues/PAs for the price point they picked.

If you are talking about Majestic, I don't think thats as comparable as others are saying in this thread. That was a vertical integration and purchased for their ability to make a product Fanatics now had under license. There are outside factors there as well. That allowed them to cut Under Armor out of the deal and move on to the Nike partnership, which has a much higher ceiling.

There are tons of competitors in the clothing space. There won't be much of any in this space.

[rms13]

Other interesting thing I notice is Fanatics sells their own encapsulated authenticated autograph cards so maybe they will be card/grading and authentication one stop shop

https://www.fanatics.com/nfl/miami-d...z-9-1073879309

[jlklemp]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Topps is not going away. I don't know why so many people think that. There will 100% be a buyout or sub-contract, or something. Like you said, Fanatics doesn't have the ability to take over everything without the existing structure somewhat still being in place. I'm not sure the masses realize just how much is involved in getting us our cardboard.

Even without this, the hobby would have shifted dramatically over the next few years. This is just another twist to the story plot. I am actually excited. I think we are going to get what we want. Multiple brands of licensing. I think it will be great. I loved the late 90's and all of the options we had.

Money, which they already have, can buy the ability you're talking about. And as soon as they take over, it's not like they'll have to wait for the money to start flowing in. For all the anti-Fanatics talk I've seen in here so far, most of the people on this forum are addicted and they'll gladly hand their money over to anybody if it means getting their fix. So as nice as it would be to see Topps AND Panini AND Upper Deck AND Fanatics cards, I'm sure Fanatics can handle this venture on their own.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by JRX

The problem for F is that that they can't make fully licensed baseball cards until 2026. Maybe people will move to cards with no logos the next few years if that's all there is, but I don't think you'll see huge sales or anything close to what topps has been doing.

Topps could also continue to exist as a much smaller company. They don't just automatically go bankrupt. Again as recent as 2019 the revenue from candy was as large as cards. They probably will sell the baseball card ip at some point, but people keep acting like all their revenue was baseball, it wasn't. They're still doing over 200M a year in candy revenue.

It sounds like they will have NFL and NBA license sooner like 2022? So they can establish brand. But it will be strange to have no baseball cards for a few years. Maybe Fanatics just buys out Topps contract since Topps won’t be able to make cards with MLB players anyway

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rms13

Other interesting thing I notice is Fanatics sells their own encapsulated authenticated autograph cards so maybe they will be card/grading and authentication one stop shop

https://www.fanatics.com/nfl/miami-d...z-9-1073879309

I could see a lot more stuff like that from Fanatics. Maybe they move away from mass produced cards to fewer higher end stuff. We really have no idea how much wax they want to produce. The theme seems to be that the new people in charge view especially the baseball card market as dinosaurs that need to get with the times.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Kracer52

What would it matter to them anyway if there is exactly zero competition possible in baseball, basketball, and football.

Because having zero competition doesn't guarantee any sales.

Collectors can choose not to buy any current products at all...and collectors can choose to focus their collecting on earlier releases.

I'll take myself, for example....probably only 10-15% of my annual hobby spending is on current releases....the rest is spent on sets/inserts/autos from previous releases as well as vintage.

And the 10-15% of my hobby spending that is on current releases is general on Heritage/Archives/throwback stuff...i.e. products that Fanatics would not be able to replicate without licensing the IP from Topps.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rms13

It sounds like they will have NFL and NBA license sooner like 2022? So they can establish brand. But it will be strange to have no baseball cards for a few years. Maybe Fanatics just buys out Topps contract since Topps won’t be able to make cards with MLB players anyway

That's an option, its still unclear what topps will be able to make from 2023-2025. If they can still do bowman and hof players they're not going to just hand it all over to Fanatics especially given the way this deal went down.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because having zero competition doesn't guarantee any sales.

Collectors can choose not to buy any current products at all...and collectors can choose to focus their collecting on earlier releases.

I'll take myself, for example....probably only 10-15% of my annual hobby spending is on current releases....the rest is spent on sets/inserts/autos from previous releases as well as vintage.

And the 10-15% of my hobby spending that is on current releases is general on Heritage/Archives/throwback stuff...i.e. products that Fanatics would not be able to replicate without licensing the IP from Topps.

They're banking on you being an addict. Most products are basically other forms of gambling, looking at pack odds, hoping for hits etc.

[Bcwcardz]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Not his kids?

Oh, wait. Self explanatory.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by JRX

They're banking on you being an addict. Most products are basically other forms of gambling, looking at pack odds, hoping for hits etc.

I don't disagree....

That said, given the price that Fanatics is supposedly paying for their exclusives, it's going to be very difficult for them to make a profit in baseball without access to Topps' IP.

Even right now, the market can't support all the products Topps is releasing, and if Fanatics is paying more for their license, they're presumably going to have to produce more products.

Then add in the possibility of a recession (or a pullback in the stock market & crypto), and overall hobby spending may very well decrease purely due to outside economic impacts.

[80s Kid]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I don't disagree....

That said, given the price that Fanatics is supposedly paying for their exclusives, it's going to be very difficult for them to make a profit in baseball without access to Topps' IP.

Even right now, the market can't support all the products Topps is releasing, and if Fanatics is paying more for their license, they're presumably going to have to produce more products.

Then add in the possibility of a recession (or a pullback in the stock market & crypto), and overall hobby spending may very well decrease purely due to outside economic impacts.

I imagine they are betting on their platform. Whether they purchase the brands or not, Fanatics has the ability to make cards more prominent on their site, which a lot more people go to on a daily basis than Topps.com. I know I’ve had no issues purchasing items on Fanatics.com, unlike the mess the Topps site is when a popular product is released.

[dlangley2]

Apologies if someone already asked this, but does anyone know if Topps could still produce cards with Minor League players post-2025? Those guys aren't a part of MLBPA at that point unless they are on the 40-man roster best I'm aware, so in theory, you could maybe still do logoless prospect releases (like Bowman with Panini-style design) I would think. Definitely not as attractive a product, but still possibly a way to keep a foot in baseball maybe (if allowable)?

[rcmb3220]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I don't disagree....

That said, given the price that Fanatics is supposedly paying for their exclusives, it's going to be very difficult for them to make a profit in baseball without access to Topps' IP.

Even right now, the market can't support all the products Topps is releasing, and if Fanatics is paying more for their license, they're presumably going to have to produce more products.

Then add in the possibility of a recession (or a pullback in the stock market & crypto), and overall hobby spending may very well decrease purely due to outside economic impacts.

Correct. They’ve paid a lot of money to get into a hobby that may peak and decline before 2026. Not using Topps names could further shrink the market.

[panamamyers]

i was able to buy multiple cases of 2018 Topps update hangers for less than $400 bucks. And that was already a known great rookie class at the time.
Those were the good old days of less than three years ago.

[Melagoo]

... probably already discussed ... are they going to keep making all the sets like Allen and Ginter, Gypsy Queen, Bowman ect ...

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Doesn’t seem likely that the guy Fanatics has in the charge of cards, leading the market into the future and all that BS, is going to want to make his mark by buying the already established name brands and continue doing exactly what they’ve been doing. He seems like someone with a big ego who is going to want to leave his mark.

[Americards]

If Fanatics offer Topps & Panini decent offers for the companies right now, basically buying the licenses for all the sports and start making money immediately, instead of waiting and building their brand, What would they have to pay Topps to make it happen?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Doesn’t seem likely that the guy Fanatics has in the charge of cards, leading the market into the future and all that BS, is going to want to make his mark by buying the already established name brands and continue doing exactly what they’ve been doing. He seems like someone with a big ego who is going to want to leave his mark.

Yup, I also would be really curious what topps margin is by product. I can see F making maybe a base product for the masses and then focusing on lots of high end stuff that they sell direct. We already see topps doing this with topps now autos and relics, not that I would consider that high end, the focus being on the direct part.

What if F treats it more like memorabilia. It seems obvious that they would want the distributors cut, what if they also try for the secondary market cut. Instead of selling packs with a 1 of 1 Tatis laundry tag auto in it, sell it direct for 50k. What if you don't do base/chrome/sapphire for example and just make sapphire and sell it direct for 1k a box.

Again, I'm just spit balling here, but I would think they see the growth and opportunity in the very high end. If anything that's the one area that topps still underserves, their patch cards are pretty subpar. What do we really get other than transcendent which is just an auto card in a cheap frame. I think F will make a lot of stuff well outside most people's price range. They're coming from a world where its all about showing off and hyping what you got. The question is how much will they bother to make at other price points, i.e. is it worth it to set up all the manufacturing.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Americards

If Fanatics offer Topps & Panini decent offers for the companies right now, basically buying the licenses for all the sports and start making money immediately, instead of waiting and building their brand, What would they have to pay Topps to make it happen?

Probably quite a bit more than if they waited to 2026. You're talking about 3 years of product. If you're F how much is that worth to you over producing logo less cards? If you're topps how much more is that worth over printing what you can for 3 years?

[Technochocolate]

The more and more as days go by...still no details on the overall gameplan for the hobby from Fanatics.

Which makes me wonder - did MLB agree to hand over the rights without hearing a concrete plan from Fanatics? Or did Fanatics tell them the plan was to buy out Topps? Because either way, that's kind of reckless for all parties to agree to that type of plan.