2019-20 NT FOTL

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by beavers

Any chance you are still tracking this? It looks like 20 of the Zion RPA's are on the tracker. So maybe about 25% of this run has been ripped? Thanks in advance.

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Forgot to do it on Monday, but update on NT:

Platinum: 30 // 51 // 60 // 68 (only 3 more up, plus a serial # and a random)
Layton: 23 // 36 // 41 // 42 (only selling 3 random breaks, 25% full)
Jaspys: 7 // 8 // 8 // 8 (no more for sale)
Mojo: 11 // 15 // 18 // 19 (only a 2 box serial # for sale)

to sum up, only 10 new cases this week, which puts the trend at:

Opening weekend: 71 cases
Week 2: 39 cases
Week 3: 17 cases
Week 4: 10 cases

Again, this was for the main / best selling product from each site, I'm measuring momentum here not actual % of print run. At this point NT breaks are dead except for Plat, which will likely be the only site to continue breaking but at a really slow rate.

Should be interesting to see how this affects box prices. On the one hand, I don't think the Logoman for Zion or Ja have been unearthed. On the other hand, demand is low and nobody wants to spend $4k on a 1/6000 chance at hitting it. The standoff between buyers and sellers is actually going in buyers' favor (FOR ONCE ZOMG), all recent sales have been at sub $4k for hobby and no FOTL has been sold for almost 3 weeks. God bless anyone still holding lots of this stuff, there's no way I would have been able to carry any of these boxes without also carrying a heavy CC balance.

sure, just to refresh, and this is a 3 week update:

Platinum just sold out #80, so 12 cases in 3 weeks
Layton completed #53, 11 cases in 3 weeks
Jaspy's is done, I see one personal box done
Mojo is done, they've done a couple 2 box serial #s though.

Opening weekend: 71 cases
Week 2: 39 cases
Week 3: 17 cases
Week 4: 10 cases
Weeks 5-7: 23 cases (average of 7.6 per week, I haven't been paying attention but suspect in a declining direction)

As for the RPA tracker, I stated there were 17 uncovered as of 6/29, so in the
4 weeks since then, we've only seen 3 more (although a /5 was hit last night, which was pretty cool). if you look at it in terms of number seen per week and % of the cases in my sample:

Past 4 weeks = 33 cases of 160 total (21%) = 3 new RPAs on the tracker out of 20 total (15%). The discrepancy in cases broke and new RPAs uncovered is probably just randomness, but also could have to do with the fact that early won we had small breakers and personals contributing to product being broke, and the fact that I was only tracking certain case break products, and as things have slowed, there are more half case breaks or serial #s or whatever creative ways breakers have to come up with to break wax.

Long story short, we've uncovered 3 RPAs in the past month. There are 79 more to go. At this rate, we'll be lucky to see 50 uncovered by next summer. My super random estimate is that by the end of next season (NBA Finals 2021), we'll be at 39/99 Zions on the tracker

[Ra3]

Still no hint of the Zion logoman? What are the odds that it could have been pulled and the occurrence was kept under wraps - or is that impossible given social media and networking effects these days?

[hard2guardtoo]

Originally Posted by Ra3

Still no hint of the Zion logoman? What are the odds that it could have been pulled and the occurrence was kept under wraps - or is that impossible given social media and networking effects these days?

Anything is possible. Maybe panini kept it back for replacements for their top customers. Zion could have kept it for his personal collection or maybe kept it to trade Giannis for one of Giannis’s logomans from his personal collection. Until it surfaces, we will never know.

[bmf]

Originally Posted by Ra3

Still no hint of the Zion logoman? What are the odds that it could have been pulled and the occurrence was kept under wraps - or is that impossible given social media and networking effects these days?

highly unlikely. a lot of this product is being held and not opened. the Zion logoman is much more likely sitting in a factory-sealed box.

[beavers]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

sure, just to refresh, and this is a 3 week update:

Platinum just sold out #80, so 12 cases in 3 weeks
Layton completed #53, 11 cases in 3 weeks
Jaspy's is done, I see one personal box done
Mojo is done, they've done a couple 2 box serial #s though.

Opening weekend: 71 cases
Week 2: 39 cases
Week 3: 17 cases
Week 4: 10 cases
Weeks 5-7: 23 cases (average of 7.6 per week, I haven't been paying attention but suspect in a declining direction)

As for the RPA tracker, I stated there were 17 uncovered as of 6/29, so in the
4 weeks since then, we've only seen 3 more (although a /5 was hit last night, which was pretty cool). if you look at it in terms of number seen per week and % of the cases in my sample:

Past 4 weeks = 33 cases of 160 total (21%) = 3 new RPAs on the tracker out of 20 total (15%). The discrepancy in cases broke and new RPAs uncovered is probably just randomness, but also could have to do with the fact that early won we had small breakers and personals contributing to product being broke, and the fact that I was only tracking certain case break products, and as things have slowed, there are more half case breaks or serial #s or whatever creative ways breakers have to come up with to break wax.

Long story short, we've uncovered 3 RPAs in the past month. There are 79 more to go. At this rate, we'll be lucky to see 50 uncovered by next summer. My super random estimate is that by the end of next season (NBA Finals 2021), we'll be at 39/99 Zions on the tracker

Any more updates? I see one just sold at auction last night. Still only fetching $9,600. No blowout bounty. I'm not gonna lie, I wish I would have sold to BO when they were offering $12k. Opportunity cost is biting me in the ass with this one.

[HoyaSaxa]

Originally Posted by beavers

Any more updates? I see one just sold at auction last night. Still only fetching $9,600. No blowout bounty. I'm not gonna lie, I wish I would have sold to BO when they were offering $12k. Opportunity cost is biting me in the ass with this one.

Too soon to give up on this product in my opinion. The value of this product is going to depend entirely on how Zion does next year (and if he is healthy).

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

sure, just to refresh, and this is a 3 week update:

Platinum just sold out #80, so 12 cases in 3 weeks
Layton completed #53, 11 cases in 3 weeks
Jaspy's is done, I see one personal box done
Mojo is done, they've done a couple 2 box serial #s though.

Opening weekend: 71 cases
Week 2: 39 cases
Week 3: 17 cases
Week 4: 10 cases
Weeks 5-7: 23 cases (average of 7.6 per week, I haven't been paying attention but suspect in a declining direction)

As for the RPA tracker, I stated there were 17 uncovered as of 6/29, so in the
4 weeks since then, we've only seen 3 more (although a /5 was hit last night, which was pretty cool). if you look at it in terms of number seen per week and % of the cases in my sample:

Past 4 weeks = 33 cases of 160 total (21%) = 3 new RPAs on the tracker out of 20 total (15%). The discrepancy in cases broke and new RPAs uncovered is probably just randomness, but also could have to do with the fact that early won we had small breakers and personals contributing to product being broke, and the fact that I was only tracking certain case break products, and as things have slowed, there are more half case breaks or serial #s or whatever creative ways breakers have to come up with to break wax.

Long story short, we've uncovered 3 RPAs in the past month. There are 79 more to go. At this rate, we'll be lucky to see 50 uncovered by next summer. My super random estimate is that by the end of next season (NBA Finals 2021), we'll be at 39/99 Zions on the tracker

Originally Posted by beavers

Any more updates? I see one just sold at auction last night. Still only fetching $9,600. No blowout bounty. I'm not gonna lie, I wish I would have sold to BO when they were offering $12k. Opportunity cost is biting me in the ass with this one.

Sure. So last update was a little over 4 weeks ago, and we're at:

Platinum: looks like they're working on filling #87, 86 was broken 6 days ago so we're talking 1 case a week now aside from some random spot breaks they're doing as well. so assuming they fill this one, you're looking at 7 cases in the past 4 weeks (in this format)
Layton: they broke #59 a couple days ago and don't seem to be selling any more on the site, so that's 6 cases in the last 4 weeks

Opening weekend: 71 cases
Week 2: 39 cases
Week 3: 17 cases
Week 4: 10 cases
Weeks 5-7: 23 cases (average of 7.6 per week)
Weeks 8-11: 13 cases (average of 3.25 per week)

I think I was telling people here and in the Spectra FOTL to sell while it was hot, I don't think there's going to be a significant decrease in price (although $9.6k is like $3k less than a month ago), but that's mostly due to sellers having bought in for so much and digging in their heels rather than move on and use their money towards something more productive. I'm not immune, I'm sitting on a bunch of Zions that now seem like I'll have to wait for the playoffs to be over and preseason hype to build back up.

Zion NT RPA tracker shows 21/99. At this rate we'll never see the majority of these.

[HoyaSaxa]

With the season having started and Zion looking much better, the BO bounty is back at $10,000 per box. Also saw a recent PWCC auction end at around $11,600. If Zion stays healthy and keeps improving, I would think these numbers move up.

[Asian62150]

Bounty up to $10,100

Is it happening???

[HoyaSaxa]

It is tempting to sell, but I think hold for now. Zion should continue to improve and I actually think Ja has even more upside.

[mwheeler27]

These boxes are going way higher.

And I don’t have a single one.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

These boxes are going way higher.

And I don’t have a single one.

Meh, I wouldn’t worry about it. ROI relative to all the other wax you’ve stacked up is horrible. It’s gone up what, <50% in 6 months? Literally anything else you could have spent $7500 on would have been a better investment in that time frame

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Meh, I wouldn’t worry about it. ROI relative to all the other wax you’ve stacked up is horrible. It’s gone up what, <50% in 6 months? Literally anything else you could have spent $7500 on would have been a better investment in that time frame

That’s why I was buying other stuff.

But I can’t help still wanting one of these boxes just to have one. LOL

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

That’s why I was buying other stuff.

But I can’t help still wanting one of these boxes just to have one. LOL

You could always just sell a case of blasters and buy one

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

You could always just sell a case of blasters and buy one

It's kinda crazy to think that these are equal.

If someone was forced to open product, would they rather open 1 case of Prizm blasters or 1 box of NT FOTL?

[HoyaSaxa]

BO bounty up to $12,000.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by HoyaSaxa

BO bounty up to $12,000.

So despite the massive boom we've experienced since June 2020, this stuff has been pretty flat depending on where you got in. Just a lesson for people interested in these big $$$ dutch auctions.

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So despite the massive boom we've experienced since June 2020, this stuff has been pretty flat depending on where you got in. Just a lesson for people interested in these big $$$ dutch auctions.

Boxes were selling on the secondary for about 10k in early November and have climbed to about 14k now. I'd hardly saw a 40% increase in 2 months is flat

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Grizzkid12

Boxes were selling on the secondary for about 10k in early November and have climbed to about 14k now. I'd hardly saw a 40% increase in 2 months is flat

the point is that they were also $10k back in June. if you had put your money in literally anything else, it would be worth a lot more than $14k right now

[Grizzkid12]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

the point is that they were also $10k back in June. if you had put your money in literally anything else, it would be worth a lot more than $14k right now

Tell that to the Lonzo Ball collectors..

[HoyaSaxa]

BO bounty up to $13,500. Quite a jump.

[Tonic3]

I noticed the jump too. It was just a matter of time. With 2018-19 prices at $40,000 it was about time 2018-19 did a little catching up.

I also think it’s silly that BO’s Most Wanted page now just says “We Are Buying” for every item

[Asian62150]

BO buying 19-20 NT for $14,000 now.

18-19 also took a very healthy bump to $20K!

[Asian62150]

Yikes! One sold yesterday on ebay for $10K at auction.

Maybe these are a buy now? Haha.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Yikes! One sold yesterday on ebay for $10K at auction.

Maybe these are a buy now? Haha.

Should be an interesting release this year.