✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[centereacan06]

Originally Posted by michaelstcloud

I know this mustve been said many times here but I'm new.

Why are Ohtani's Pitching RCs trading at a big premium over his Hitting RCs?


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I assume you're referring to his 2018 Series 2/Update and Topps Chrome (picture poses) as opposed to Rookie Debut, Debut Chrome etc.. (batting poses). That would just be because the former are simply more desired cards regardless of the picture. His flagship cards just happen to feature him on the mound.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Frankish

My guess is that it's because if he is ultimately a baseball great (which is the only scenario that justifies today's prices, much less an increase from here) it will be because he is a very successful pitcher who also bats like a champ. If his pitching doesn't work out, he's unlikely to make the HOF as a DH or OF. So the pitching cards will be key. It's a leap but the simplest explanation I see, as I also prefer his pitching cards....

Are today's prices that outlandish? Seems like to low end flagship and other Topps products are pretty reasonable as you can still buy a lot of 2018 RC cards for $10 and under. I get the prices have gone up 4 to 10x from the last off season, but compared to other stars his low end cards seem reasonable to me.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by centereacan06

I assume you're referring to his 2018 Series 2/Update and Topps Chrome (picture poses) as opposed to Rookie Debut, Debut Chrome etc.. (batting poses). That would just be because the former are simply more desired cards regardless of the picture. His flagship cards just happen to feature him on the mound.

This is the correct answer.

Set pedigree > image. Almost always.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Ha there was a mad run on the '18 Gold Label Class 1 cards yesterday. I bought a bunch and put even more on my watchlist only to wake up today to find all the stuff on my watchlist purchased. Might be one of those "fan favorite" cards like the '20 Stadium Club Chrome Soto that just gets a bananas following because of the pose(s).

Anyone have the wrapper odds for '18 Gold Label? I'd like to calculate how many blacks there are.

Arthur

Just picked this up the other day. I assume you approve. The price seemed very fair to me.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/17475271351...p2047675.l2557

[shamcat]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Just as a heads up, that newly listed raw 2018 S2 Indy Day 17/76 was cracked out of an SGC 8.5 case.

Nice pickup, and what a price lol.. let's see what the PWCC auctions go for

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[Tim]

Originally Posted by Frankish

My guess is that it's because if he is ultimately a baseball great (which is the only scenario that justifies today's prices, much less an increase from here).

What lol?

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Are today's prices that outlandish? Seems like to low end flagship and other Topps products are pretty reasonable as you can still buy a lot of 2018 RC cards for $10 and under. I get the prices have gone up 4 to 10x from the last off season, but compared to other stars his low end cards seem reasonable to me.

It's not that I think they are outlandish but rather that an optimistic career is priced in. This isn't unusual with someone who is not only incredibly talented but also hot at the moment. And if he continues to play like he is now, that would be great...his cards will probably increase in value (barring a down move in total market) and he'll be in the HOF. Of course, the history of baseball (and card collecting) is littered with players that were hot and ultimately didn't live up to expectations.

Just so I'm not misunderstood, I am a huge Ohtani fan. I own dozens of scarce Japanese RCs from 2013 and a few dozen 2018 American auto cards. But I think those cards are fairly priced or maybe even over-priced given the chance that he might not continue on this trajectory for any number of reasons...injury, etc. So I probably have at least $50K in Ohtani RCs but am not so naive as to believe they could not crash in value.

Whether he is over or under priced relative to multiples applied to other players, that's a tough issue. He is unique in his ability to go two or three ways. That could make him an amazing player for a few years that history doesn't recognize in the long run due to lack or specialization, or it could make him a legend. Regardless of which you think it will be, it's foolish to have a great deal of confidence either way. There are just too many unknowns.

And I should also mention, in reference to this particular post, that I don't know much about the $10 cards. You might be entirely correct. For myself, given my own time constraints, I pay particular attention to the cards in the $1K+ price range. There are a lot of his base cards in my PC (hundreds actually) but I don't track them closely.

All things considered, though, I stick with my opinion that the current prices reflect him ultimately fulfilling the baseball legend he promises. If he ends up a DH or OF with no pitching career, I just don't see his cards retaining their value relative to the market.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Frankish

It's not that I think they are outlandish but rather that an optimistic career is priced in. This isn't unusual with someone who is not only incredibly talented but also hot at the moment. And if he continues to play like he is now, that would be great...his cards will probably increase in value (barring a down move in total market) and he'll be in the HOF. Of course, the history of baseball (and card collecting) is littered with players that were hot and ultimately didn't live up to expectations.

Just so I'm not misunderstood, I am a huge Ohtani fan. I own dozens of scarce Japanese RCs from 2013 and a few dozen 2018 American auto cards. But I think those cards are fairly priced or maybe even over-priced given the chance that he might not continue on this trajectory for any number of reasons...injury, etc. So I probably have at least $50K in Ohtani RCs but am not so naive as to believe they could not crash in value.

Whether he is over or under priced relative to multiples applied to other players, that's a tough issue. He is unique in his ability to go two or three ways. That could make him an amazing player for a few years that history doesn't recognize in the long run due to lack or specialization, or it could make him a legend. Regardless of which you think it will be, it's foolish to have a great deal of confidence either way. There are just too many unknowns.

And I should also mention, in reference to this particular post, that I don't know much about the $10 cards. You might be entirely correct. For myself, given my own time constraints, I pay particular attention to the cards in the $1K+ price range. There are a lot of his base cards in my PC (hundreds actually) but I don't track them closely.

All things considered, though, I stick with my opinion that the current prices reflect him ultimately fulfilling the baseball legend he promises. If he ends up a DH or OF with no pitching career, I just don't see his cards retaining their value relative to the market.

Baller!!! In general I only collect low end cards!

[Rage]

Gold Label finally getting some love!

This red was only $25 in March

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Rage

Gold Label finally getting some love!

This red was only $25 in March

Nice pickup! Much better than my class 3 black.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by Rage

Gold Label finally getting some love!

This red was only $25 in March

.


That would look great in a PSA 10 slab...

I'm guessing it wouldn't grade? Gold Label has notorious condition issues it seems

[al3xmac10]

Pitching and hitting

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Just picked this up the other day. I assume you approve. The price seemed very fair to me.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/17475271351...p2047675.l2557

Interesting. The talk was about his Class 1 cards because people were looking for rookie cards of him that depict him both hitting and pitching but the Class 3 does that as well, I suppose. I didn't follow any of the Class 3 sales, just the Class 1.

I like the follow-through more than the running with batting helmet image. Was able to pick up a red and then a ton of blacks and base. Offer still stands -- if anyone has the pack odds I'll be happy to run the math on the blacks.

Arthur

[HarryLime]

Print run of just 9 (!) and actually halfway decent centering! The most overlooked, no one cares about it Ohtani cards are my favorite.



Arthur

[BigSlim16]

Some awesome Ohtani stats from an article on The Athletic:


"He’s averaging 14.0 K’s per 9 innings! That’s more than Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer or Max Scherzer.

He’s gotten 21 extra-base hits! That’s more than anyone in the American League. But meanwhile on the mound, he has only allowed two extra-base hits! That’s the fewest of any pitcher in baseball who has pitched as many innings as he has. This is happening. In real life.

He has a 207 ERA+! That’s better than Scherzer, Glasnow or Bauer.

He has a 139 OPS+! That’s better than Mookie Betts, Juan Soto or Nolan Arenado.

He’s slugging .574! Which is higher than Vladdy Guerrero Jr., Giancarlo Stanton or José Ramírez. And it’s almost 400 points higher than the hitters who have to face him. Those poor people are slugging .195. And can we mention again that he’s a real person?"

[BGeezy]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

Some awesome Ohtani stats from an article on The Athletic:


"He’s averaging 14.0 K’s per 9 innings! That’s more than Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer or Max Scherzer.

He’s gotten 21 extra-base hits! That’s more than anyone in the American League. But meanwhile on the mound, he has only allowed two extra-base hits! That’s the fewest of any pitcher in baseball who has pitched as many innings as he has. This is happening. In real life.

He has a 207 ERA+! That’s better than Scherzer, Glasnow or Bauer.

He has a 139 OPS+! That’s better than Mookie Betts, Juan Soto or Nolan Arenado.

He’s slugging .574! Which is higher than Vladdy Guerrero Jr., Giancarlo Stanton or José Ramírez. And it’s almost 400 points higher than the hitters who have to face him. Those poor people are slugging .195. And can we mention again that he’s a real person?"

He also has exactly 40 strikeouts as both a pitcher and a batter. I wonder if he can keep them in sync throughout the year.

He's been very impressive as a pitcher, didn't expect him to be this good thus far. Really excited to see if he can keep it up.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Print run of just 9 (!) and actually halfway decent centering! The most overlooked, no one cares about it Ohtani cards are my favorite.



Arthur

Print run of 9? I am confused...was that a typo?

[RW3FAN]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

Some awesome Ohtani stats from an article on The Athletic:


"He’s averaging 14.0 K’s per 9 innings! That’s more than Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer or Max Scherzer.

He’s gotten 21 extra-base hits! That’s more than anyone in the American League. But meanwhile on the mound, he has only allowed two extra-base hits! That’s the fewest of any pitcher in baseball who has pitched as many innings as he has. This is happening. In real life.

He has a 207 ERA+! That’s better than Scherzer, Glasnow or Bauer.

He has a 139 OPS+! That’s better than Mookie Betts, Juan Soto or Nolan Arenado.

He’s slugging .574! Which is higher than Vladdy Guerrero Jr., Giancarlo Stanton or José Ramírez. And it’s almost 400 points higher than the hitters who have to face him. Those poor people are slugging .195. And can we mention again that he’s a real person?"

207 ERA?
2.07?

Just looked on MLB, it's 2.10.

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Print run of 9? I am confused...was that a typo?

I don't understand it, either. But there are a lot of variations I don't know about. Interested to find out.

[Rage]

Originally Posted by RW3FAN

207 ERA?
2.07?

Just looked on MLB, it's 2.10.

ERA is 2.10
ERA+ is 207 (average pitcher is 100, similar to OPS+ for batters)

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Print run of 9? I am confused...was that a typo?

Originally Posted by Frankish

I don't understand it, either. But there are a lot of variations I don't know about. Interested to find out.

I'm assuming this is the Topps Mini Variation..which are supposed to have super short print runs I believe

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I'm assuming this is the Topps Mini Variation..which are supposed to have super short print runs I believe

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks. I thought the print runs were more like 100 but have to admit I don't have much interest in minis generally so never looked into it.

[al3xmac10]

rejuvenated

[majestik101]

Ohtani-San!!

Solo shot over the Big Green Monster

[hammertime]

Opposite field flick over the Green Monster!