HOF Pace Tracker

[Archangel1775]

Adley has a chance to be special but he'll need an MVP or a World Series title or two and likely stick a catcher long term.

Luis Robert just needs to be traded. I dont know what the White Sox problems are but it has all went down hill since LaRussa put down that young catcher for hitting a home run and then traded him away.

[tyrith]

I've gotten busy with work, so I'm just going to post the rest of the stats without much commentary for now. Good chance the next update will be longer form and not for a couple of months.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.3 + 0.2 = 10.5
Arraez, Luis 10.9 + -0.1 = 10.8
Hoerner, Nico 12.7 + 0.4 = 13.1
Torres, Gleyber 14.8 + 0.2 = 15
Webb, Logan 17.3 + 0.2 = 17.5
Riley, Austin 17.9 + 0.3 = 18.2
Tucker, Kyle 20 + -0.1 = 19.9
Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + -0.2 = 20.3
Alvarez, Yordan 20.6 + 0 = 20.6
Devers, Rafael 24.2 + 1.6 = 25.8

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Alcantara, Sandy 16.1 + 0 = 16.1
Adames, Willy 19.1 + 0.7 = 19.8
Bellinger, Cody 22.8 + 0.4 = 23.2

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Smith, Will 19.1 + -0.9 = 18.2
this WAR drop made me go check that I didn't screw something up the last time. The last cutoff happened after he had four homers in two games. He hasn't hit one since and has two hits in his last eight games (I wrote this when I was pulling stats)
Burnes, Corbin 20.2 + 0.5 = 20.7
Bieber, Shane 21.4 + 0 = 21.4
Ohtani, Shohei 36.3 + 0.7 = 37
Correa, Carlos 37 + 0.5 = 37.5

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Olson, Matt 24.4 + -0.2 = 24.2
Marte, Ketel 25.3 + 1.5 = 26.8
Seager, Corey 34.2 + 1 = 35.2
Bregman, Alex 37.4 + 0.3 = 37.7
Lindor, Francisco 49.9 + 1.7 = 51.6

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Chapman, Matt 28.3 + 0.8 = 29.1
Nola, Aaron 35.8 + 0.4 = 36.2
Turner, Trea 39.5 + 0.2 = 39.7
Bogaerts, Xander 39 + 0.9 = 39.9
Ramirez, Jose 48.2 + 0.8 = 49
Harper, Bryce 51.2 + -0.3 = 50.9
Machado, Manny 51.3 + 0.5 = 51.8
Betts, Mookie 58.8 + 0 = 58.8

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

Bryant, Kris 29.8 + -0.1 = 29.7
Yelich, Christian 42.7 + 0.3 = 43
Judge, Aaron 46.4 + 1.5 = 47.9
Trout, Mike 85.8 + -0.1 = 85.7

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Semien, Marcus 33.8 + 1.2 = 35
Cole, Gerrit 43.7 + 0.1 = 43.8
Arenado, Nolan 48.8 + 0.4 = 49.2

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Rizzo, Anthony 35.8 + 0 = 35.8
Stanton, Giancarlo 42.7 + -0.1 = 42.6
Altuve, Jose 56.8 + 0 = 56.8
Freeman, Freddie 60.5 + 0.2 = 60.7

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Sale, Chris 50.8 + 0.8 = 51.6

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

deGrom, Jacob 42.6 + 0 = 42.6
Goldschmidt, Paul 55.5 + 0.5 = 56
Kershaw, Clayton 75.8 + 0.1 = 75.9

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

McCutchen, Andrew 52.4 + 0 = 52.4

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Scherzer, Max 72.8 + 0.4 = 73.2

Age 40+
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Verlander, Justin 81.6 + 0 = 81.6

[JRamIsTheKing]

Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor both have a very strong shot at the Hall, continuing to be very productive in 2024.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by JRamIsTheKing

Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor both have a very strong shot at the Hall, continuing to be very productive in 2024.

Ramirez is the poster boy for great HOF level player that isn't really worth collecting IMO. He's been in Clevland his whole career, doesn't really look like a ball player, doesn't speak english, doesn't do anything flashy. He isn't a gold glove HR hitting SB batting title guy. He would need to go to a big team and win some rings and even that might not move the needle much. Crazy to think the guy is the same age as Harper and similar WAR but just not collectable IMO.
On the other hand, Lindor has some upside. Gold Glove SS on a big team. Has commercials, is a good looking, smiling dude. Has worked his way into the MVP convo. His stuff seems a bit underpriced because until recently he hasn't been awesome for the Mets, just really good lol.

[Jeter1020]

How do we feel about Bryce Harper at this point for the Hall of Fame? He’s not having g the best season and is in a bit of a slump. But he is also clutch in the playoffs so we’ll see how he does in September/October.

8x All Star
ROY
2x MVP
NLCD MVP


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[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

How do we feel about Bryce Harper at this point for the Hall of Fame? He’s not having g the best season and is in a bit of a slump. But he is also clutch in the playoffs so we’ll see how he does in September/October.

8x All Star
ROY
2x MVP
NLCD MVP

Harper is a really good power lefty bat who benefits greatly from being a huge prospect and a full time player since he was 19. And he's one of the few MLB stars. A couple more seasons of 30 HR on a competitive Philly team will all but lock up his enshrinement. To me he's a poor mans Reggie Jackson.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

How do we feel about Bryce Harper at this point for the Hall of Fame? He’s not having g the best season and is in a bit of a slump. But he is also clutch in the playoffs so we’ll see how he does in September/October.

8x All Star
ROY
2x MVP
NLCD MVP


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Harper is on a very solid HOF path. Almost a lock already. Give him a few more highly productive seasons and he’ll get there.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Ramirez is the poster boy for great HOF level player that isn't really worth collecting IMO. He's been in Clevland his whole career, doesn't really look like a ball player, doesn't speak english, doesn't do anything flashy. He isn't a gold glove HR hitting SB batting title guy. He would need to go to a big team and win some rings and even that might not move the needle much. Crazy to think the guy is the same age as Harper and similar WAR but just not collectable IMO.
On the other hand, Lindor has some upside. Gold Glove SS on a big team. Has commercials, is a good looking, smiling dude. Has worked his way into the MVP convo. His stuff seems a bit underpriced because until recently he hasn't been awesome for the Mets, just really good lol.

I don’t disagree with what you’re saying here, but also, they ain’t giving away nice JRam RCs in high grade for free. Anyone who was in early on him as either a collector or investor has to be okay with the current state of his market.

We agree that he’s currently not a great target for investors though.

[Biohazarddfl]

Give me Jram over Harper, for whatever it's worth. Especially as a valuation vs current prices.

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[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Give me Jram over Harper, for whatever it's worth. Especially as a valuation vs current prices.

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Who?


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[tyrith]

Harper is going to make the Hall. He's already at 50 bWAR and 51 fWAR, and he's signed for seven more years after this one - he'd have to be pretty much completely incapable of playing for almost all of that to miss at this point. 55 WAR and 400 HR is an extremely conservative estimate, and with two MVPs and some of his career highlights and hype, he would make the Hall on those numbers (and I suspect it'd be on the first ballot.)

Jose Ramirez doesn't have the two MVP and being a mega star parts to fall back on, so he can't limp over the finish line, but I do think he's 80%+ to make it to the Hall now. He's also right around 50 WAR in both systems - ironic considering he and Harper are only about a month apart in age. He's working on his 4th consecutive season of 150+ games and 5+ WAR, so there's no real reason to think he'll turn into a crippled mess anytime soon. He seems very likely wind up with 60+ WAR (my personal expectation would be somewhere in the 65-75 range) with something like 2200 hits and 375 HRs. Where he lands in that range (and any future postseason success) will affect if he makes it in on the 1st ballot or the 8th, but I'm very confident he will eventually get in on the BBWAA ballot.

They're extremely different collector beasts - Harper has a real shot at 500 HRs and has the two MVP trophies, which are career highlights that are going to be impossible for Ramirez to match unless he he somehow gets consecutive WS MVP trophies or something. Ramirez is obviously way cheaper than Harper at this point, but there's just not a likely impetus for that to change.

[timber63401]

Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.3 + 0.2 = 10.5
Arraez, Luis 10.9 + -0.1 = 10.8
Hoerner, Nico 12.7 + 0.4 = 13.1
Torres, Gleyber 14.8 + 0.2 = 15
Webb, Logan 17.3 + 0.2 = 17.5
Riley, Austin 17.9 + 0.3 = 18.2
Tucker, Kyle 20 + -0.1 = 19.9
Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + -0.2 = 20.3
Alvarez, Yordan 20.6 + 0 = 20.6
Devers, Rafael 24.2 + 1.6 = 25.8




If I live to be a 1000 Ill never understand why Devers doesn't get more hobby love.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Harper is going to make the Hall. He's already at 50 bWAR and 51 fWAR, and he's signed for seven more years after this one - he'd have to be pretty much completely incapable of playing for almost all of that to miss at this point. 55 WAR and 400 HR is an extremely conservative estimate, and with two MVPs and some of his career highlights and hype, he would make the Hall on those numbers (and I suspect it'd be on the first ballot.)

Jose Ramirez doesn't have the two MVP and being a mega star parts to fall back on, so he can't limp over the finish line, but I do think he's 80%+ to make it to the Hall now. He's also right around 50 WAR in both systems - ironic considering he and Harper are only about a month apart in age. He's working on his 4th consecutive season of 150+ games and 5+ WAR, so there's no real reason to think he'll turn into a crippled mess anytime soon. He seems very likely wind up with 60+ WAR (my personal expectation would be somewhere in the 65-75 range) with something like 2200 hits and 375 HRs. Where he lands in that range (and any future postseason success) will affect if he makes it in on the 1st ballot or the 8th, but I'm very confident he will eventually get in on the BBWAA ballot.

They're extremely different collector beasts - Harper has a real shot at 500 HRs and has the two MVP trophies, which are career highlights that are going to be impossible for Ramirez to match unless he he somehow gets consecutive WS MVP trophies or something. Ramirez is obviously way cheaper than Harper at this point, but there's just not a likely impetus for that to change.

Really well said imo. Thank you


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[tyrith]

Originally Posted by timber63401

Hayes, Ke'Bryan 10.3 + 0.2 = 10.5
Arraez, Luis 10.9 + -0.1 = 10.8
Hoerner, Nico 12.7 + 0.4 = 13.1
Torres, Gleyber 14.8 + 0.2 = 15
Webb, Logan 17.3 + 0.2 = 17.5
Riley, Austin 17.9 + 0.3 = 18.2
Tucker, Kyle 20 + -0.1 = 19.9
Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + -0.2 = 20.3
Alvarez, Yordan 20.6 + 0 = 20.6
Devers, Rafael 24.2 + 1.6 = 25.8




If I live to be a 1000 Ill never understand why Devers doesn't get more hobby love.

Devers is a good player, but what's the trigger for him to be a hobby darling? He's never really had a dominant season and isn't really on a HoF track. This is by far his best statistical season and he's going to be 5th in AL MVP at the best. There are just a lot of players kind of in that bucket, even if he has the highest WAR count among 27 year olds, it doesn't really means there's an investment trigger - the age 27 and 28 cohort is just weak right now in terms of HOF potential.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Devers is a good player, but what's the trigger for him to be a hobby darling? He's never really had a dominant season and isn't really on a HoF track. This is by far his best statistical season and he's going to be 5th in AL MVP at the best. There are just a lot of players kind of in that bucket, even if he has the highest WAR count among 27 year olds, it doesn't really means there's an investment trigger - the age 27 and 28 cohort is just weak right now in terms of HOF potential.

Devers is on a HOF track. He’s not a lock by any stretch, but going on of WAR for age, he’s definitely on track. He has a long way to go though.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Ramirez is the poster boy for great HOF level player that isn't really worth collecting IMO. He's been in Clevland his whole career, doesn't really look like a ball player, doesn't speak english, doesn't do anything flashy. He isn't a gold glove HR hitting SB batting title guy. He would need to go to a big team and win some rings and even that might not move the needle much. Crazy to think the guy is the same age as Harper and similar WAR but just not collectable IMO.
On the other hand, Lindor has some upside. Gold Glove SS on a big team. Has commercials, is a good looking, smiling dude. Has worked his way into the MVP convo. His stuff seems a bit underpriced because until recently he hasn't been awesome for the Mets, just really good lol.

This is actually 100000% false. He speaks English very well. I think it is either a comfort thing, doesn't want people to know he can speak English just so he won't be bugged in public or some sort of other thing.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Devers is on a HOF track. He’s not a lock by any stretch, but going on of WAR for age, he’s definitely on track. He has a long way to go though.

For Devers to get to the HOF he's going to have to spike a couple of 7 WAR sorts of seasons he hasn't shown so far in his career. It's possible, but it's just not super likely IMO - most players capable of doing that have shown it by age 27. He's almost certainly not going to get to the Hall just stringing together another seven seasons at 5 WAR average; no one really does that. And there's a decent chunk of even his current season performance that's fueled by an unsustainable spike in his BABIP.

There will be players like Devers that make it to the Hall, but for every one that does, there are going to be 5-10 more than hit normal age regression in the 32-35 range and peter out as Hall of Very Good 40-55 win players that don't hit any of the major statistical markers that would push them beyond a small slice of the vote.

That's a different HOF track than the Soto/Acuna class of guys are, or where someone like Henderson/Witt will be at age 27 if they stay healthy for the next few years. Getting into the HOF without those true peak seasons is very, very difficult, and having those seasons banked going into the late 20s makes the path dramatically easier.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by tyrith

For Devers to get to the HOF he's going to have to spike a couple of 7 WAR sorts of seasons he hasn't shown so far in his career. It's possible, but it's just not super likely IMO - most players capable of doing that have shown it by age 27. He's almost certainly not going to get to the Hall just stringing together another seven seasons at 5 WAR average; no one really does that. And there's a decent chunk of even his current season performance that's fueled by an unsustainable spike in his BABIP.

There will be players like Devers that make it to the Hall, but for every one that does, there are going to be 5-10 more than hit normal age regression in the 32-35 range and peter out as Hall of Very Good 40-55 win players that don't hit any of the major statistical markers that would push them beyond a small slice of the vote.

That's a different HOF track than the Soto/Acuna class of guys are, or where someone like Henderson/Witt will be at age 27 if they stay healthy for the next few years. Getting into the HOF without those true peak seasons is very, very difficult, and having those seasons banked going into the late 20s makes the path dramatically easier.

All your points are valid, I still feel confident saying Devers is “on track”.

Craig Biggio got in with 3,000 hits and only one season of a 7+ WAR.

Raffy can get there with 500 HRs and one season of 7+ WAR. Fred McGriff got in with a hair under 500, and zero season with a WAR above 7. So it’s possible.

[Biohazarddfl]

Raffy is fine where he stands right now. He could absolutely be on an Edgar Martinez, Jim Thome type path. It's definitely too early to tell, but it's impossible to write him off also.

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[tyrith]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

All your points are valid, I still feel confident saying Devers is “on track”.

Craig Biggio got in with 3,000 hits and only one season of a 7+ WAR.

Raffy can get there with 500 HRs and one season of 7+ WAR. Fred McGriff got in with a hair under 500, and zero season with a WAR above 7. So it’s possible.

Yeah, like that's possible. I do think the MLB is different than in that era - there are literally two batters age 36 or higher than have more than 1 fWAR so far this season, and a total of 14 that have even gotten 50 PAs so far. In 2002 there were eleven players age 36+ (including McGriff and Biggio) that finished the full season at 1.4 fWAR or better, and there were 30 batters that got at least 80 PAs for the season (albeit that one of those was Randy Johnson.)

The modern decline phase seems like it comes earlier and harder than it used to, either due to the increased athleticism of MLB or lack of PEDs to halt it. Like this is the age of the last 3+ WAR season for some guys that we've talked about in recent years:

Evan Longoria: 31
Andrew McCutchen: 30
Nolan Arenado (active at age 33): 31

And we've got Alex Bregman sputtering out at 30, Xander Bogaerts at 31, Manny Machado having his 2nd down season in a row at 31, etc.

There are counter examples - screw using Judge as a comp to anyone that isn't Barry Bonds, but Marcus Semien is the most obvious, along with Jose Altuve (although he's cleary down from peak at age 34), Matt Chapman and Jose Ramirez chugging along at 31, etc. Even then, though, 31 is just four seasons from now for someone like Devers - even if he gets there at 45 WAR, he hasn't finished the race, and he probably has to get to at least 60 to have a real shot. It's absolutely, 100% possible, but if you had ten Rafael Devers I would expect 1-2 of them to actually make it into the Hall on the BBWAA ballot.

[Biohazarddfl]

Bregman has been hot as heck. Just the slowest starter of all time. Would anyone believe it you told them that Bregman has more War than Adley, Arenado, Julio, Machado, Carroll, and Olson? He'll be sitting at 40 war with more playoff stats being compiled.

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[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Bregman has been hot as heck. Just the slowest starter of all time. Would anyone believe it you told them that Bregman has more War than Adley, Arenado, Julio, Machado, Carroll, and Olson? He'll be sitting at 40 war with more playoff stats being compiled.

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Fangraphs system really likes his defense so far this year, for whatever reason. Personally - and keep in mind that I have one of the top two Bregman collections on the planet - I don't see how he's getting to the 65+ WAR he'll need to get enough of the electorate to get over 2017 to get him into the actual Hall, and I feel like he probably winds up in Evan Longoria territory. But man, he does keep plugging along these last few years.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Fangraphs system really likes his defense so far this year, for whatever reason. Personally - and keep in mind that I have one of the top two Bregman collections on the planet - I don't see how he's getting to the 65+ WAR he'll need to get enough of the electorate to get over 2017 to get him into the actual Hall, and I feel like he probably winds up in Evan Longoria territory. But man, he does keep plugging along these last few years.

I feel like he ends up in Evan Longoria territory too, but I keep looking up every September and saying, dang, he really came back. Still something to be said for making a deep run every season of his career(seemingly)

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[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

All your points are valid, I still feel confident saying Devers is “on track”.

Craig Biggio got in with 3,000 hits and only one season of a 7+ WAR.

Raffy can get there with 500 HRs and one season of 7+ WAR. Fred McGriff got in with a hair under 500, and zero season with a WAR above 7. So it’s possible.

Devers is sneaky good. I'd agree he's on track because he just keeps stacking great season on top of great season. He's been very consistent and sometimes consistency gets lost in the shuffle while it's happening. But make no mistake, if he keeps it up, his career totals are going to look strong.

Originally Posted by tyrith

Yeah, like that's possible. I do think the MLB is different than in that era - there are literally two batters age 36 or higher than have more than 1 fWAR so far this season, and a total of 14 that have even gotten 50 PAs so far. In 2002 there were eleven players age 36+ (including McGriff and Biggio) that finished the full season at 1.4 fWAR or better, and there were 30 batters that got at least 80 PAs for the season (albeit that one of those was Randy Johnson.)

The modern decline phase seems like it comes earlier and harder than it used to, either due to the increased athleticism of MLB or lack of PEDs to halt it. Like this is the age of the last 3+ WAR season for some guys that we've talked about in recent years:

Evan Longoria: 31
Andrew McCutchen: 30
Nolan Arenado (active at age 33): 31

And we've got Alex Bregman sputtering out at 30, Xander Bogaerts at 31, Manny Machado having his 2nd down season in a row at 31, etc.

There are counter examples - screw using Judge as a comp to anyone that isn't Barry Bonds, but Marcus Semien is the most obvious, along with Jose Altuve (although he's cleary down from peak at age 34), Matt Chapman and Jose Ramirez chugging along at 31, etc. Even then, though, 31 is just four seasons from now for someone like Devers - even if he gets there at 45 WAR, he hasn't finished the race, and he probably has to get to at least 60 to have a real shot. It's absolutely, 100% possible, but if you had ten Rafael Devers I would expect 1-2 of them to actually make it into the Hall on the BBWAA ballot.

Bregman isn't sputtering out at 30. He's doing what he's been doing for the last 5 years, hitting mid-20s HRs with 90+ RBIs. The only thing he's not doing this year is being patient. As for Machado, same thing. 30 bombs is not a down season. He'll likely get there again this year.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Devers is sneaky good. I'd agree he's on track because he just keeps stacking great season on top of great season. He's been very consistent and sometimes consistency gets lost in the shuffle while it's happening. But make no mistake, if he keeps it up, his career totals are going to look strong.

Yeah, the streakiness hurts, as my fantasy team can tell you, but the number always look good at the end of the year.