Official Tom Brady RC Price Tracker

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

did anyone hear that apparently Tom has signed a few cards recently with the inscription HOF 2028? I heard there were 7 cards signed this way.

I mean, the HOF is a certainty for Brady, but think he is jumping the gun a bit?

Should have been HOF 2023.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

did anyone hear that apparently Tom has signed a few cards recently with the inscription HOF 2028? I heard there were 7 cards signed this way.

I mean, the HOF is a certainty for Brady, but think he is jumping the gun a bit?

Why do you care?

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Why do you care?

well... this is a football discussion forum and I found it interesting and unique that a player has added a HOF inscription to his autos years before his actual induction. shall we not discuss it?

how is that for ya?

[Fastfalcon94]

I was crunching some numbers on the Leaf Limited Tom Brady RC. The Limited Edition is numbered to 50 and I think it is his lowest serial numbered card in a Patriots Uniform (a legit uniform, not the grey sweatpants). Plus it is refractory unlike the base card numbered to 350.

Here are all the cards contained in the product:

Inserts
-------------
25 Piece of the Game Previews (1st down) numbered to 25 = 625
25 Piece of the Game Previews (2nd down) numbered to 100 = 2500
25 Piece of the Game Previews (3rd down) numbered to 300 = 7500
25 Piece of the Game Previews (4th down) Not Numbered = XXXX (Going to ignore these for calculations. I'd assume there would be more than 300 of each player though)
Total = 10,625

Base Cards
-----------
1-50 numbered to 5000 = 250000
51-100 numbered to 4000 = 200000
101-150 numbered to 3000 = 150000
151-200 numbered to 2000 = 100000
201-250 numbered to 1500 = 75000
251-300 numbered to 1000 = 50000
301-350 numbered to 500 = 25000
351-400 numbered to 350 = 17500 *Brady is card# 378
401-425 game used patches = 17500 (Serial numbers vary by card. From TCDB: 5x250, 7x500, 1x750, 12x1000)
Total = 885,000

Limited Edition Parallels
-------------------------
1-200 are non-rookies numbered to 35 = 7000
201-400 are rookies numbered to 50 = 10000 *Brady is card# 378
401-425 are game used numbered to 25 = 625
Total = 17,625


- Total number of cards made for this product = 913,250 (Technically more as the "4th down" cards that are not numbered, but lets ignore those)
- 3 Cards Per Pack
- 18 Packs Per Box
- Suggested Retail was around $130 per box

Tom Brady Base Card #/d to 350
- Number of cards you need to go through to find one (913250/350) = 2609
- Number of Packs you need to go through to find one (2609/3) = 870
- Number of Boxes you need to go through to find one (870/18) = 48 (Would cost $6240 to buy that many boxes)

Tom Brady Limited Edition #/d to 50
- Number of cards you need to go through to find one (913250/50) = 18625
- Number of Packs you need to go through to find one (18625/3) = 6088
- Number of Boxes you need to go through to find one (6088/18) = 338 (Would cost $43940 to buy that many boxes)


There are some unopened hobby boxes for sale online for around $4k right now. But the odds of hitting either brady are not good. You would have a 2.08% chance of hitting a base #/d to 350 and a 0.29% chance of hitting a Limited Edition #/d to 50 per box.

Hopefully my numbers are right. Feel free to critique. Also Goldin has some really rare Brady Rookie cards right now. Some of the cards likely haven't been made available for sale in years:

Donruss Elite Status /10
Fleer E-X Essential Credentials Future /25
Leaf Certified Mirror Gold /35
Donruss Season Stat Line /20
Fleer Ultra Platinum /25
Absolute Players Honors /10
Playoff Contenders Round Numbers Gold /60
Quantum Leaf Infinity Purple /15
Score Rookie Preview Rookie Rollcall /50

[KhalDrogo]

R&S Longevity is /30.

[Fastfalcon94]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

R&S Longevity is /30.

Ah you are right. Longevity is a very suiting card name too for him. So maybe the leaf limited edition is the 2nd rarest in Pats uniform.

[Brian W]

Originally Posted by Fastfalcon94

I was crunching some numbers on the Leaf Limited Tom Brady RC. The Limited Edition is numbered to 50 and I think it is his lowest serial numbered card in a Patriots Uniform (a legit uniform, not the grey sweatpants). Plus it is refractory unlike the base card numbered to 350.

Here are all the cards contained in the product:

Inserts
-------------
25 Piece of the Game Previews (1st down) numbered to 25 = 625
25 Piece of the Game Previews (2nd down) numbered to 100 = 2500
25 Piece of the Game Previews (3rd down) numbered to 300 = 7500
25 Piece of the Game Previews (4th down) Not Numbered = XXXX (Going to ignore these for calculations. I'd assume there would be more than 300 of each player though)
Total = 10,625

Base Cards
-----------
1-50 numbered to 5000 = 250000
51-100 numbered to 4000 = 200000
101-150 numbered to 3000 = 150000
151-200 numbered to 2000 = 100000
201-250 numbered to 1500 = 75000
251-300 numbered to 1000 = 50000
301-350 numbered to 500 = 25000
351-400 numbered to 350 = 17500 *Brady is card# 378
401-425 game used patches = 17500 (Serial numbers vary by card. From TCDB: 5x250, 7x500, 1x750, 12x1000)
Total = 885,000

Limited Edition Parallels
-------------------------
1-200 are non-rookies numbered to 35 = 7000
201-400 are rookies numbered to 50 = 10000 *Brady is card# 378
401-425 are game used numbered to 25 = 625
Total = 17,625


- Total number of cards made for this product = 913,250 (Technically more as the "4th down" cards that are not numbered, but lets ignore those)
- 3 Cards Per Pack
- 18 Packs Per Box
- Suggested Retail was around $130 per box

Tom Brady Base Card #/d to 350
- Number of cards you need to go through to find one (913250/350) = 2609
- Number of Packs you need to go through to find one (2609/3) = 870
- Number of Boxes you need to go through to find one (870/18) = 48 (Would cost $6240 to buy that many boxes)

Tom Brady Limited Edition #/d to 50
- Number of cards you need to go through to find one (913250/50) = 18625
- Number of Packs you need to go through to find one (18625/3) = 6088
- Number of Boxes you need to go through to find one (6088/18) = 338 (Would cost $43940 to buy that many boxes)


There are some unopened hobby boxes for sale online for around $4k right now. But the odds of hitting either brady are not good. You would have a 2.08% chance of hitting a base #/d to 350 and a 0.29% chance of hitting a Limited Edition #/d to 50 per box.

Hopefully my numbers are right. Feel free to critique. Also Goldin has some really rare Brady Rookie cards right now. Some of the cards likely haven't been made available for sale in years:

Donruss Elite Status /10
Fleer E-X Essential Credentials Future /25
Leaf Certified Mirror Gold /35
Donruss Season Stat Line /20
Fleer Ultra Platinum /25
Absolute Players Honors /10
Playoff Contenders Round Numbers Gold /60
Quantum Leaf Infinity Purple /15
Score Rookie Preview Rookie Rollcall /50

Good write up....I pulled 2 Brady base rookies from the same box...both numbered to 350....so the coalition must be random

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by Brian W

Good write up....I pulled 2 Brady base rookies from the same box...both numbered to 350....so the coalition must be random

To me, the LL /50 is the nicest, such a great card IMO, wish had that one.

[Brian W]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

To me, the LL /50 is the nicest, such a great card IMO, wish had that one.

Very nice card....refractor like... wish I pulled one of them...but I'm happy with what I have!

[daveyc1]

LL is definitely a top 5 rookie for me. possibly top 3. We have done rankings in the past, but I wonder what the current consensus is?

Contenders would be 1
then SPA 2?
LL 3?

I know BC has become very popular, but personally, I cannot rank it above any of those 3. I would probably have Momentum and Showcase round out my top 5.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Fastfalcon94

I was crunching some numbers on the Leaf Limited Tom Brady RC. The Limited Edition is numbered to 50 and I think it is his lowest serial numbered card in a Patriots Uniform (a legit uniform, not the grey sweatpants). Plus it is refractory unlike the base card numbered to 350.

Here are all the cards contained in the product:

Inserts
-------------
25 Piece of the Game Previews (1st down) numbered to 25 = 625
25 Piece of the Game Previews (2nd down) numbered to 100 = 2500
25 Piece of the Game Previews (3rd down) numbered to 300 = 7500
25 Piece of the Game Previews (4th down) Not Numbered = XXXX (Going to ignore these for calculations. I'd assume there would be more than 300 of each player though)
Total = 10,625

Base Cards
-----------
1-50 numbered to 5000 = 250000
51-100 numbered to 4000 = 200000
101-150 numbered to 3000 = 150000
151-200 numbered to 2000 = 100000
201-250 numbered to 1500 = 75000
251-300 numbered to 1000 = 50000
301-350 numbered to 500 = 25000
351-400 numbered to 350 = 17500 *Brady is card# 378
401-425 game used patches = 17500 (Serial numbers vary by card. From TCDB: 5x250, 7x500, 1x750, 12x1000)
Total = 885,000

Limited Edition Parallels
-------------------------
1-200 are non-rookies numbered to 35 = 7000
201-400 are rookies numbered to 50 = 10000 *Brady is card# 378
401-425 are game used numbered to 25 = 625
Total = 17,625


- Total number of cards made for this product = 913,250 (Technically more as the "4th down" cards that are not numbered, but lets ignore those)
- 3 Cards Per Pack
- 18 Packs Per Box
- Suggested Retail was around $130 per box

Tom Brady Base Card #/d to 350
- Number of cards you need to go through to find one (913250/350) = 2609
- Number of Packs you need to go through to find one (2609/3) = 870
- Number of Boxes you need to go through to find one (870/18) = 48 (Would cost $6240 to buy that many boxes)

Tom Brady Limited Edition #/d to 50
- Number of cards you need to go through to find one (913250/50) = 18625
- Number of Packs you need to go through to find one (18625/3) = 6088
- Number of Boxes you need to go through to find one (6088/18) = 338 (Would cost $43940 to buy that many boxes)


There are some unopened hobby boxes for sale online for around $4k right now. But the odds of hitting either brady are not good. You would have a 2.08% chance of hitting a base #/d to 350 and a 0.29% chance of hitting a Limited Edition #/d to 50 per box.

Hopefully my numbers are right. Feel free to critique. Also Goldin has some really rare Brady Rookie cards right now. Some of the cards likely haven't been made available for sale in years:

Donruss Elite Status /10
Fleer E-X Essential Credentials Future /25
Leaf Certified Mirror Gold /35
Donruss Season Stat Line /20
Fleer Ultra Platinum /25
Absolute Players Honors /10
Playoff Contenders Round Numbers Gold /60
Quantum Leaf Infinity Purple /15
Score Rookie Preview Rookie Rollcall /50

Showcase Legacy is /20

then you have the Showcase masterpiece /2

[daveyc1]

I will be having another Brady RC arriving from authentication tomorrow hopefully!

I believe that one brings me down to 11 needed... I need to count them up again

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by Brian W

Good write up....I pulled 2 Brady base rookies from the same box...both numbered to 350....so the coalition must be random

Wow, that's crazy. Brady Luck was on your side.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Jbead61

Getting ready for values to rise!!

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Brady rookies gonna do numbers after this Mahomes performance.

Originally Posted by sic698

Last chance to Buy Brady Rookies on the cheap after a 2-year Decline because of Mahomes' dominance, I no longer have to hear about this ridiculous conversation from Mahomes collectors on this forum. The question is settled tonight Tom Brady is the Goat of Football. Brady is calling the game right now on Fox and confirming tonight that he is the GOAT. FLY BRADY FLY $$$ Congrats to all Tom Brady Card Holders who held including myself

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

1. This is not why Brady’s cards have declined.

2. Tom being the GOAT has never been in question.

3. Why are you celebrating the massive paper losses you’ve taken the last two years?



Retirement is stagnation for almost every player not named MJ. I don’t know what angle there is for Brady to massively increase in price in the near future.

Looks like Khal deserves his props here a month later...







Rising tides have lifted all ships lately for established QBs. What's interesting, though, is the activity of Mahomes and Brady cards AFTER the Super Bowl, compared to Hurts and Allen.



Yay for all of us rooting for/collecting both guys.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Looks like Khal deserves his props here a month later...







Rising tides have lifted all ships lately for established QBs. What's interesting, though, is the activity of Mahomes and Brady cards AFTER the Super Bowl, compared to Hurts and Allen.



Yay for all of us rooting for/collecting both guys.

100% agree,

[daveyc1]

Recieved rookie card #33 in the mail today. 11 more to go!


Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

LL is definitely a top 5 rookie for me. possibly top 3. We have done rankings in the past, but I wonder what the current consensus is?

Contenders would be 1
then SPA 2?
LL 3?

I know BC has become very popular, but personally, I cannot rank it above any of those 3. I would probably have Momentum and Showcase round out my top 5.

Huge fans of those, particularly Momentum and Showcase, Game Uni and extremely difficult to grade. Chrome is nice too, just a lot out there.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Recieved rookie card #33 in the mail today. 11 more to go!


Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Man on a mission! Love it!

[Tonic3]

Got this back from grading recently. Knew it wouldn’t grade high (bottom right corner) but there’s only 500 of them so I’ll take a 7. Maybe I’ll upgrade some day.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Got this back from grading recently. Knew it wouldn’t grade high (bottom right corner) but there’s only 500 of them so I’ll take a 7. Maybe I’ll upgrade some day.

hey, that is a great card!! one of the rarest Pacific. Also one of the ones I still need

Congrats!

[daveyc1]

A quick image i wanted to share... this is a "mini" collection of all the base Upper Deck rookies.


Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[daveyc1]

UD was kind of lazy by using the same pic for all the cards in the upper row!

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Brian W]

Awesome cards....Thanks for sharing!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Looks like Khal deserves his props here a month later...







Rising tides have lifted all ships lately for established QBs. What's interesting, though, is the activity of Mahomes and Brady cards AFTER the Super Bowl, compared to Hurts and Allen.



Yay for all of us rooting for/collecting both guys.

I think you’re smart enough to understand how the index works, and why short term fluctuations don’t mean much. His index is 6.1% higher than where it was at the recent lows, and unchanged since December 2023.

Brady as an investment vehicle going forward is a dumb move.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think you’re smart enough to understand how the index works, and why short term fluctuations don’t mean much. His index is 6.1% higher than where it was at the recent lows, and unchanged since December 2023.

Brady as an investment vehicle going forward is a dumb move.

I always look at types of cards first, and then players.

In 2012 when Brady still had just 3 Super Bowls, you could have bought Tom Brady plain napkin jersey cards or Keyshawn Johnson (who had been retired for 6 years) PMGs, and you'd be way better off having bought Keyshawn Johnson PMGs.

You'd have been way better off buying Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Dan Marino, etc PMGs.

The exercise that's worked for me is: Find the stuff that people will collect. Find the best players of that stuff.